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Bitcoin could change the world

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#1 JChief

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Posted 21 November 2013 - 06:56 AM


I wonder if Longecity would consider taking donations in Bitcoin!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin

http://www.weusecoins.com/en/

Bitcoin (BTC) is a cryptocurrency that allows for globally accepted anonymous transactions through a secure decentralized network. It is the first currency in the world that allows people to have full control over storage and transfer of their money with zero counter-party risk with no fraud, no chargebacks and no counterfeit coins. It has no governmental or central bank control and therefore is not taxable or subject to regulation. The supply of money is self-regulated and behaves similar to gold and cannot be inflated. It is designed to be deflationary. It even has advantages over gold. It can be exchanged anywhere the Internet is available.

It's an invention of a mysterious – and, to date, unidentified – programmer who called himself Satoshi Nakamoto and claimed to be a 36-year-old Japanese male. He launched Bitcoin on 3 January 2009 and disappeared entirely from the net in April 2011, saying that he was moving on to other things. A Pulitzer prize awaits the journalist who unmasks him. At the moment, all we have is the verdict of Dan Kaminsky, a leading internet-security expert who examined the Bitcoin code and concluded that "Nakamoto" was "a world-class programmer with a deep understanding of the C++ programming language" who also "understands economics, cryptography and peer-to-peer networking. Either there's a team of people who worked on this or this guy is a genius."

Bitcoin is fully detailed in the official white paper found here: http://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf . The abstract begins “A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution (emphasis added).” This is precisely what is currently taking place today and the potential impact this will have on the world economy and nation states are yet to be determined but Bitcoin’s latest market price of over $144 ( as of this writing) and billion dollar economy is certainly generating some buzz as media outlets, governmental regulatory agencies, and central banks all start to take notice.

"The root problem with conventional currency," wrote Nakamoto in 2009, "is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve. We have to trust them with our privacy, trust them not to let identity thieves drain our accounts." In contrast, everything in Nakamoto's system "is based on crypto proof rather than trust".

People ask “What is it BTC backed by?” Bitcoin is backed exclusively by the public’s trust; most likely motivated either by consumers or business interests attracted to zero (or close to zero) transactional fees, full control over storage and transfer of money with zero counter-party risk, reduced risk/costs associated with fraud, no chargeback risks, no counterfeit coins, a belief in the infallible and predictable nature of mathematics, the security inherent in the currency’s reliance on cryptography, transparency derived from open source (and therefore publicly verifiable) nature of the programming code, full accounting of all transaction history stored universally in what is called the “blockchain” , and/or is attractive to users with increased privacy needs or who, if proper steps are taken, wish to send and receive payments anonymously or wish to sell or obtain goods or services that are banned or restricted by local governments. The designers have also put an upper limit on the number of Bitcoins that can be created ruling out in advance the type of quantitative easing (QE) or money printing that has worried savers throughout the developed world. This deflationary nature is appealing to those concerned about inflation brought about by governmental/central bank intervention destroying the purchasing power of savings denominated in the fiat currencies of those respective countries.

The Bitcoin phenomenon is one of the most intriguing things to have happened in cyberspace since the invention of the peer-to-peer networking that undermined the music business (BitTorrent is still widely used in spite of numerous RIAA lawsuits, for example) and enabled developments such as Wikileaks.

They are counterfeit-proof. There are about 11 million bitcoins now, with a maximum limit of 21 million, a protection against inflation. It's a currency governed by math, not governments. The transaction fees are either very low or nonexistent. It's open-source software, and it can be anonymous to send and to receive bitcoins, if certain steps are taken. It's also easy to send large amounts of value across borders quickly. And because there is no middleman, it reduces fees, such as those businesses have to pay to credit card companies.

Edited by JChief, 21 November 2013 - 07:13 AM.

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#2 JChief

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Posted 21 November 2013 - 07:02 AM

The bitcoin protocol can be used for more than just money:


At the heart of bitcoin is a fundamental innovation: a distributed public ledger. A ledger in accounting is a book that you cannot edit once you have written in it. Instead, if you have made a mistake, the only way to fix it is to add another transaction to the ledger that undoes the error. As we know from accounting fraud, problems arise when people figure out ways to transact without recording it in the ledger or making ex post changes to the ledger (this is why Quickbooks isn't really an accounting system). The bitcoin ledger is the so-called blockchain which uses the fact that there are many copies of it that are broadly distributed combined with a fair bit of math to ensure that once a transaction has been recorded in the blockchain that transaction can not be changed after the fact. There is no other widely used protocol in the world today that accomplishes this: with bitcoin anyone can make a statement (a transaction) and have this be recorded in a globally visible and fixed ledger.



http://www.usv.com/posts/bitcoin-as-protocol



Could Bitcoin be as transformational as the World Wide Web?

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#3 Artificiality

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 03:56 AM

Bitcoin are at over 800 usd each now. I beat myself up when they went from ~10 to ~150 and now I'm beating myself up again for not buying twice.

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#4 theconomist

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 04:36 PM

As an investment medium I think it can work as well as anything else, all you need to increase price in a speculative market is demand (or the myth of demand) and unpredictable supply.
As a transactional currency it's scope is de facto very limited.
We laugh at the tulip bubble and at pets.com, I don't see how (or why) bitcoin will be different.

I'm not against this currency, it's just ironic how the people who seem to be it's staunchest advocats, are in it for confirmation bias in hopes that price will keep going up and 1- own bitcoins and 2-vout it's merits as a transactional currency which is paradoxal; it cannot become a transactional currency until the price is fixed (or at least indexed understood here as predictable) at which point it will stop being an interesting speculative medium which will reduce it's perceived value and in extenso it's price.
To recap: I'm not saying it will fail, it just won't succeed the way most people want (wish) it to succeed.
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#5 niner

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 02:17 AM

I have to agree with theconomist here. I love the idea of bitcoin, but I think the claim that it's immune from inflation is beside the point, at best. Currencies need a degree of price stability, and neither bitcoin nor precious metals are price stable. There's a lot of hyperventilation about Quantitative Easing, and how we're going to be Weimar Germany any day now. So... Where's the inflation? I don't see it.
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#6 nowayout

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 04:58 PM

Well there is a fixed maximum number of possible bitcoins that is not very high, which rather limits its usability as a currency I would think.

#7 Artificiality

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 01:58 AM

You don't have to buy or sell in full bitcoins, 1 microbitcoin (0.001 bitcoin) at this point is around 1 usd.

#8 niner

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 02:24 AM

Wouldn't that be a millibitcoin? Well, whatever it's called, my worry would be in waking up one day and finding that it's now worth a tenth of a cent...

#9 JChief

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 05:27 PM

I have to agree with theconomist here. I love the idea of bitcoin, but I think the claim that it's immune from inflation is beside the point, at best. Currencies need a degree of price stability, and neither bitcoin nor precious metals are price stable. There's a lot of hyperventilation about Quantitative Easing, and how we're going to be Weimar Germany any day now. So... Where's the inflation? I don't see it.


Andreas really does put the price thing into perspective.



#10 AgeVivo

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Posted 01 January 2014 - 06:11 PM

once it has reached its limit (=soon), what will happen to it?

Satoshi Nakamoto, are you here? it would be nice to have your skills be used against aging. Eg by raising money for projects against aging or deciphering aging through commputers (denigma.org)

#11 Brainy

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Posted 09 January 2014 - 02:03 PM

once it reaches is limits, it think it will start gaining even more value. I have bought and use bitcoins. Bitcoins were at 650$ each 3 weeks ago, now about 900$ it will keep going up i think. As it get more and more popular, the price will increase... A lot of people don't know about bitcoins. I can see it going to 2000$ very soon.
p.s.im not as economist at all and this is just my 2 cents :P

#12 dunbar

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 08:26 PM

Where can you buy bitcoins? And havent bitcoins recently be stolen by hackers? Sounds unsafe to me.

#13 Brainy

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 02:40 PM

yes you can get them stolen just like anything else but It is super safe for what it is meant for... make transaction unstoppable. In the Us you cannot lets gamble money online with your credit card because it is illegal and credit card just wont allow the transaction to happen, with bitcoin you can transfer money to anyone, and theres a ledger so you can prove that transaction are being made! :) you can send money to other people in other country so easily with very very minimal fees. just youtube this:
"Everything You Need to Know About Bitcoin" it is a video from Vice about bitcoins, it last an hour and it is the best hour i spent watching something in a long time :) Cheers :)

#14 niner

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 03:21 PM

and theres a ledger so you can prove that transaction are being made!


I was surprised to hear this a few weeks back while listening to a radio show about bitcoin. Since there's a ledger, the transactions aren't anonymous. You have to trust that the ledger keeper will not rat you out, or that some government won't get a hold of it and see that you bought a bag of dope on Silk Road.

I heard that there's at least one currency system, built using bitcoin software tools, that is truly anonymous, I forget what it was called, but it was something secret-y sounding...

Funny, but cash is actually more anonymous than bitcoin. That's kind of ironic.

#15 Invariant

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Posted 16 January 2014 - 05:47 PM

and theres a ledger so you can prove that transaction are being made!


I was surprised to hear this a few weeks back while listening to a radio show about bitcoin. Since there's a ledger, the transactions aren't anonymous. You have to trust that the ledger keeper will not rat you out, or that some government won't get a hold of it and see that you bought a bag of dope on Silk Road.

I heard that there's at least one currency system, built using bitcoin software tools, that is truly anonymous, I forget what it was called, but it was something secret-y sounding...

Funny, but cash is actually more anonymous than bitcoin. That's kind of ironic.


Some misconceptions here. There is no 'ledger keeper': the ledger is distributed. Everybody who runs the full bitcoin client stores a copy of the whole ledger. The reason this doesn't break anonymity is that the ledger only stores the public keys related to each transaction, not the names of the account holder. Everybody will know that "2334bn2k3lh4bsd7fgsdfbun2ljhb" sent 100k bitcoin to "12jn43wkl3ijnbksiudhbco8shg34", but that's not very informative. It is in principle possible to trace-back where a bitcoin came from, to see if it was once in a crime-related acocunt. But this by itself is probably not enough to implicate someone. In fact, a similar thing happens with real money: almost all dollar bills have minute amounts of cocaine on them..
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#16 niner

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Posted 16 January 2014 - 09:17 PM

and theres a ledger so you can prove that transaction are being made!


I was surprised to hear this a few weeks back while listening to a radio show about bitcoin. Since there's a ledger, the transactions aren't anonymous. You have to trust that the ledger keeper will not rat you out, or that some government won't get a hold of it and see that you bought a bag of dope on Silk Road.

I heard that there's at least one currency system, built using bitcoin software tools, that is truly anonymous, I forget what it was called, but it was something secret-y sounding...

Funny, but cash is actually more anonymous than bitcoin. That's kind of ironic.


Some misconceptions here. There is no 'ledger keeper': the ledger is distributed. Everybody who runs the full bitcoin client stores a copy of the whole ledger. The reason this doesn't break anonymity is that the ledger only stores the public keys related to each transaction, not the names of the account holder. Everybody will know that "2334bn2k3lh4bsd7fgsdfbun2ljhb" sent 100k bitcoin to "12jn43wkl3ijnbksiudhbco8shg34", but that's not very informative. It is in principle possible to trace-back where a bitcoin came from, to see if it was once in a crime-related acocunt. But this by itself is probably not enough to implicate someone. In fact, a similar thing happens with real money: almost all dollar bills have minute amounts of cocaine on them..


Thanks for the clarification, Novotropic. This seems more sensible than what I heard. It would be pretty weird if people were making illegal transactions in a way that was grossly non-anonymous. I guess it all boils down to the difficulty of the back-tracing. If it's possible, I'd suspect that the NSA could do it if they really wanted to.

#17 Invariant

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Posted 16 January 2014 - 10:04 PM

and theres a ledger so you can prove that transaction are being made!


I was surprised to hear this a few weeks back while listening to a radio show about bitcoin. Since there's a ledger, the transactions aren't anonymous. You have to trust that the ledger keeper will not rat you out, or that some government won't get a hold of it and see that you bought a bag of dope on Silk Road.

I heard that there's at least one currency system, built using bitcoin software tools, that is truly anonymous, I forget what it was called, but it was something secret-y sounding...

Funny, but cash is actually more anonymous than bitcoin. That's kind of ironic.


Some misconceptions here. There is no 'ledger keeper': the ledger is distributed. Everybody who runs the full bitcoin client stores a copy of the whole ledger. The reason this doesn't break anonymity is that the ledger only stores the public keys related to each transaction, not the names of the account holder. Everybody will know that "2334bn2k3lh4bsd7fgsdfbun2ljhb" sent 100k bitcoin to "12jn43wkl3ijnbksiudhbco8shg34", but that's not very informative. It is in principle possible to trace-back where a bitcoin came from, to see if it was once in a crime-related acocunt. But this by itself is probably not enough to implicate someone. In fact, a similar thing happens with real money: almost all dollar bills have minute amounts of cocaine on them..


Thanks for the clarification, Novotropic. This seems more sensible than what I heard. It would be pretty weird if people were making illegal transactions in a way that was grossly non-anonymous. I guess it all boils down to the difficulty of the back-tracing. If it's possible, I'd suspect that the NSA could do it if they really wanted to.


Actually, I don't think the back-tracking would be very difficult, and I bet all my bitcoins on it that many people are working on this right now. The only practical problem is that one would need to have some 'seeds': account numbers that are known to belong/have belonged to a criminal. These could be obtained either when a criminal with a bitcoin account is caught and forced to give it up, or by police infiltrating the criminal organization and proposing to pay/receive bitcoins, at which point the account number would have to be reveiled. Once these seeds have been obtained, I suppose it would be very easy to come up with a list of accounts that the seed account has done transactions with. It is then not known who owns those accounts, but it will be either the same person or someone s/he's done bussiness with. The main risk to the criminal is that once their identity is linked to their account, the law enforcement agencies can find out how much bitcoin went through that account.

#18 PWAIN

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 12:15 AM

You probably can't get true anonymity but you can get deniability.

Lets say you have 10 bitcoins and want to buy something for 2 bitcoins. You create a new number key and transfer the 2 bitcoins there. Then you simply pay using the new number key and dispose of the number key afterwards. Probably best to let a bit of time pass before doing the second transfer. Do the same thing for all your transactions and there is no way to prove that you paid to anyone but the now deleted keys which could be anyone.

Sure they can show that you were one back in the transaction list but that doesn't prove anything. You can simply claim that you transferred to someone else that you don't know and they must have done the illegal transaction that followed.

#19 Luminosity

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Posted 22 January 2014 - 05:59 AM

It's good for governments to think they could have competition in the money business. They have to much power to dilute currencies and even manipulate gold prices behind the scenes.

Here's some of my thoughts on the economy in my blog, if you are interested:

http://www.longecity...on-the-economy/

#20 JChief

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Posted 28 September 2017 - 11:51 AM

Bitcoin still looking good ;) 


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#21 JChief

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Posted 20 May 2020 - 03:17 AM

And better still ;) 



#22 JChief

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Posted 17 May 2021 - 10:39 AM

I look upon this thread fondly 


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#23 JChief

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Posted 27 April 2024 - 09:04 PM

I have to agree with theconomist here. I love the idea of bitcoin, but I think the claim that it's immune from inflation is beside the point, at best. Currencies need a degree of price stability, and neither bitcoin nor precious metals are price stable. There's a lot of hyperventilation about Quantitative Easing, and how we're going to be Weimar Germany any day now. So... Where's the inflation? I don't see it.

Do you see it now?

#24 adamh

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Posted 27 April 2024 - 09:29 PM

Metals, real estate, food, minerals and machinery are examples of real things. Fiat is simply an iou with no fixed value. The value of money lies in what it can buy and the value of our money keeps going down. Gold and silver used to back our money but no more. This is why its value keep dropping, that and the fact govt keeps printing more.

 

Bitcoin has no intrinsic value, gold and silver are at least good for ornaments and also some industrial uses so you could say they have some intrinsic value besides trading. Bitcoin has no substance, nothing pretty to look at, no industrial uses but it has several advantages, one in particular. It can not be counterfeited, it can not be created except by mining. There is a fixed finite amount of bitcoin and it is not controlled by any government. Government can't seize it like they can your bank account, they can't stop you from spending it. 

 

The world is wising up to the fact that bitcoin is real money, just like gold. Fiat money is a scam and always loses value in the long run. By the end of this year I forecast a value of $100k. The value of one btc will eventually rise to more than one million dollars and it won't stop there.



#25 Hip

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Posted 30 April 2024 - 03:20 AM

Fiat money is a scam

 

You might like to examine history before you make a comment like that.

 

During the Dark Ages of Europe, Islamic civilisation in North Africa was by comparison culturally and scientifically more advanced. This was in part due to the fact that they read the Greek philosophical, mathematical and scientific texts, whereas Europe became steeped in religious thought.

 

But in the Middle Ages, Europe started to take off commercially and then scientifically, because of the money lenders, who would lend money to fund business projects. These money lenders used a primitive version of fractional reserve banking, ie, when you create money out of thin air, and lend it to people so that you can earn interest and make a profit.

 

Meanwhile, back in Islam, money lending was outlawed, because usury was against Islamic rules. Usury was also a sin in Christian Europe. But it was the Jews who became the moneylenders in Europe, as their religion did not ban usury, and Christians turned a blind eye to this Jewish practice of usury, as they realised that the availability of money to lend underpinned economic expansion. 

 

So in this way, Europe advanced and became the pinnacle of commerce, science and civilisation, whereas Islam stagnated. All because  of money lending and fractional reserve banking. 



#26 adamh

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Posted 30 April 2024 - 11:34 PM

You might like to examine history before you make a comment like that.

 

During the Dark Ages of Europe, Islamic civilisation in North Africa was by comparison culturally and scientifically more advanced. This was in part due to the fact that they read the Greek philosophical, mathematical and scientific texts, whereas Europe became steeped in religious thought.

 

But in the Middle Ages, Europe started to take off commercially and then scientifically, because of the money lenders, who would lend money to fund business projects. These money lenders used a primitive version of fractional reserve banking, ie, when you create money out of thin air, and lend it to people so that you can earn interest and make a profit.

 

Meanwhile, back in Islam, money lending was outlawed, because usury was against Islamic rules. Usury was also a sin in Christian Europe. But it was the Jews who became the moneylenders in Europe, as their religion did not ban usury, and Christians turned a blind eye to this Jewish practice of usury, as they realised that the availability of money to lend underpinned economic expansion. 

 

So in this way, Europe advanced and became the pinnacle of commerce, science and civilisation, whereas Islam stagnated. All because  of money lending and fractional reserve banking. 

"So in this way, Europe advanced and became the pinnacle of commerce, science and civilisation, whereas Islam stagnated. All because  of money lending and fractional reserve banking."

 

Yes, I'm aware of fractional reserve banking and the fact that it facilitates economic expansion. But we weren't talking about frb, we were talking about what is real money and bitcoin in particular. You can make loans in btc same as any other currency and charge interest

 

The reason I said fiat is fake money is because it is. If its backed by real resources like land, gold or water, its a real currency, not a fiat. When government can issue new money in any amount they like, with nothing behind it, the money you worked for loses value

 

They can't do that with currency backed by gold or silver because they have to come up with the gold or silver to do it. That keeps the money good, keeps inflation down. 

 

You could say btc is a type of fiat in which the value depends on the market. This is true of all the worlds money supply. There is nothing behind them and the value depends on what people think its worth. When people decide the yen or yuan or dollar has lost value, prices go up and you get less goods for the same payment.

 

Finally, btc is impossible to counterfeit, since it has no physical form and to create more you have to do mining. USDC on the other hand is a scam. Its controlled by the government and they can take it away any time they feel like it.



#27 Hip

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Posted 02 May 2024 - 03:23 AM

The reason I said fiat is fake money is because it is. If its backed by real resources like land, gold or water, its a real currency, not a fiat. When government can issue new money in any amount they like, with nothing behind it, the money you worked for loses value

 

They can't do that with currency backed by gold or silver because they have to come up with the gold or silver to do it. That keeps the money good, keeps inflation down.  

 

The Medieval moneylenders had a financial system based on gold, but this did not stop them from issuing more money than the gold they possessed. In other words, it did not stop them creating money out of thin air. Indeed, it was the Medieval moneylenders' practice of creating money out of thin air that led to the modern concept of fractional reserve banking.  

 

The story goes like this: people would deposit their gold with a moneylender for safekeeping. Since the moneylenders held on to a lot of gold, when someone wanted a loan, they would go to a moneylender, and ask for some of their gold. The moneylender would loan them some gold, which of course had to later be paid back with interest. So in this way, the moneylender could profit on lending out their gold.

 

But because physically handing out gold to borrowers was a risk (as it could be stolen), the moneylenders started issuing certificates representing the gold they handed out. So then when you wanted to loan some gold for your business venture, you were not physically given gold by the moneylender, but rather given a certificate which represented the gold that you were given. Your gold that you had on load remained safely in the moneylenders bank, and you were given a certificate stating that you owned that gold. 

 

Eventually you have to pay your loan back, and when you do, you return the certificate to the bank. In this way, people could be loaned gold without having to carry the gold on them, and risk having the gold stolen. 

 

To begin with, the moneylenders only handed out gold certificates to borrowers when these moneylenders actually had physical gold in their bank to back up the certificate. However, the moneylenders then started to get crafty: the moneylenders soon realised that you could give out gold certificates even if you did not possess sufficient gold to back up that certificate. Even if you had no gold to lend out, you could still create a certificate.

 

And the moneylenders realised that there was no harm in doing this: the borrower gets the money they require, and the moneylender is happy too, because they earn interest on that loaned money. When the loan was paid back, and the certificate returned to the bank, the transaction was complete, and the borrower would never know that the money the moneylenders lent him was actually just created out of thin air.

 

For the moneylender, this practice of lending out more money than you possess in gold became a lucrative way of earning more profits.

 

And this practice of creating money out of thin air that started with the moneylenders in the Middle Ages became the basis of modern fractional reserve banking, whereby within limits, a bank can create money out of nothing to lend out to borrowers. 

 

The reason fractional reserve banking boosts the economy is that it makes available more money for business loans than would otherwise be available. With more money available for loans, more business ventures are entered into, and this drives the economy forward.

 

 


Edited by Hip, 02 May 2024 - 03:35 AM.


#28 adamh

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Posted 02 May 2024 - 05:13 PM

Yes hip, that is an interesting story. You are not only talking about the rise of fbs but also the rise of fiat. Those gold certificates became fiat money and the issuers, first the bankers and later the state, would issue more fiat than they had gold or silver to back it up. Which brings us to the present day and the pending collapse of the monetary system.

 

The us dollar has lost over 98% of its value since the federal reserve was established and the fed has never been audited. With a track record like that would you want to keep your wealth in dollars? The pound, euro, yen, yuan, peso etc have all done the same. Keeping wealth in bitcoin protects you from inflation though it exposes you to volatility. Wealth in the form of gold and silver, also copper, means less volatility but its awkward to carry around a lot of metal. 

 

Keeping cash in the bank is a losing proposition since it constantly loses value. Inflation right now is probably around 15% though they play games to hide the real rate. I'm thinking I should buy a car now since the price will only rise and purchasing power of money in the bank keeps going down. Inflation makes people spend

 

I say again that a major world wide depression is on the horizon and it will hit sooner than most people expect. I foresee a stock market crash, a housing crash and high unemployment. That $90 some billion we just threw away at ukraine, isreal, and taiwan is going to look mighty tasty to hungry people who have to go without in this country. We have given some $200 billion so far to promote war over there and that could have been used to help our people



#29 Hip

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Posted 02 May 2024 - 08:24 PM

Yes, currencies have become severed from the gold standard for some decades now. That means the value of a dollar or pound sterling depends purely on the integrity of the international banking system. The fact that the international banking system controls the money supply, and do not let anyone else other than themselves create dollars or pounds is what maintains the value of our currencies.
 
Obviously for any currency to retain its value, you have to prevent people from creating forged electronic dollars or pounds, and this is what the tightly-controlled global banking system does. When they want to create a billion electronic dollars out of nothing, they effectively just punch in a few commands into their computer system, and the money is created. But nobody else has this ability to create electronic dollars or pounds, and thus this system integrity maintains the value of our money. 
 
 
In terms of inflation eroding the value of the money in our pockets: inflation is primarily caused by one thing: the printing of more money. This is because money is just like any other commodity: when there is an oversupply of that commodity, its value goes down, due to the law of supply and demand. So when central banks print too much new money and inject it into the economy, it causes a wave of inflation, where the value of money circulating in that economy goes down.
 
This is why we all experienced a lot of inflation in the last two years: it was a direct result of all the money that was printed during the pandemic, to pay for people's wages while they stayed at home. Due to those two years of high inflation, all of us have lost around 5 - 10% of our money, as a result of the loss of its value via inflation. Only if you invested your money in a stock which performed well, or in an interest-paying savings account, could you escape the devaluing of money that resulted from the pandemic money printing.
 
But even outside pandemics, there is still always a certain level of inflation. Modern economies normally aim for around 2% inflation. They don't want inflation higher than this, nor lower than this. Apparently there are various reasons for choosing this 2% inflation rate, it is considered optimum. But that means over time, all money devalues itself by 2% each year.
 
The implication is that anyone who possesses a lot of money will need to invest it, if they wish their money to retain its value. If you just leave your money in a bank account that pays no interest, then you lose 2% every year. This need to invest to maintain value might be considered a good thing, because it means the very wealthy cannot just sit on their assets; they will need to invest those assets into productive companies by buying stock, otherwise their assets will decline by 2% each year. This ensures wealthy peoples' money is not just sitting idle, but is put to work, which then benefits the economy. 
 
 
 
 
 

I say again that a major world wide depression is on the horizon and it will hit sooner than most people expect.


We can never rule out some economic disaster in the future; but we have come a long way in our scientific understanding of economic forces since the days of the Great Depression of the 1930s, which was caused by poor understanding of economics. The Wall Street crash that started this depression was one issue; but the length and severity of that depression was caused by government economic mismanagement after the crash had taken place.

My understanding is that the key error the government made after the Wall Street crash was to advice the populace not to spend any money unless absolutely essential, and to batten down the economic hatches and become very frugal. Although this intuitively makes sense in times of a depression, in fact it was the worst piece of advice you could ever give a nation. We now know that consumer spending brings us out of economic depressions, whereas a contraction in consumer spending actually worsens the depression. Reducing consumer spending is like draining the blood out of a patient: that's not going to make them heal. But at that time, they did not know this key piece of economic science, so the government made things 10 times worse with their bad advice about being frugal.

These days, when we enter into economic downturns or depressions, governments will try to get the public to spend, as they know this is vital to pull you out of a depression.

 


Edited by Hip, 02 May 2024 - 08:37 PM.


#30 adamh

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Posted 03 May 2024 - 09:00 PM

Yes, printing fiat without anything behind it is a prime driver of inflation. Other things that can influence it are the cost of labor and materials, the cost of energy and the cost of government mandates. One thing I don't agree with is your assumption that governments can be trusted with fiat

 

"The fact that the international banking system controls the money supply, and do not let anyone else other than themselves create dollars or pounds is what maintains the value of our currencies."

 

It keeps the system from blowing up after a few years since governments are under scrutiny. Private individuals issuing fiat is an invitation to steal. Unfortunately, governments are not much more honest than the average crook. Every country has printed vast sums to cover wars, depressions and to get reelected. I have a $10 billion dollar bill from zimbabwe, it might buy you a stick of gum but probably not

 

There are many instances of this throughout history. The usa is not much better than zimbabwe. At least the dollar still buys something but it has lost over 98% of its value since the federal reserve was created. So we are only about 2% better than zimbabwe at managing money. There should be no inflation at all, if energy or materials go up that creates temporary inflation which should go back down but it never goes down. 

 

:"We can never rule out some economic disaster in the future; but we have come a long way in our scientific understanding of economic forces since the days of the Great Depression of the 1930s, which was caused by poor understanding of economics. The Wall Street crash that started this depression was one issue; but the length and severity of that depression was caused by government economic mismanagement after the crash had taken place."

 

Yes, that certainly was a factor but even if govt had made smarter decisions, the depression happened and maybe it would have been better or not as bad if this and that happened. Its easy to be a monday morning quarterback. Have we learned anything since then? It does not look that way because we are going into trouble again and all biden cares about is the election. 

 

There will be another great depression and its starting soon. We are already in recession according to historical standards. 2 quarters with negative growth is a recession. Stock market is booming but is the end in sight? Several drops lately, might be starting soon. Put money in gold silver and bitcoin for the win







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