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Ideas on stopping decay and the key to immortality


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#1 apocalypse

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Posted 02 April 2006 - 07:37 PM


The selection as cause of decay/aging hypothesis

I'm not sure if someone has stated this hypothesis in the past, but this is a summary of one of the possible keys towards undoing decay, that I've thought may work, based on the substantial quantities of information I've absorbed in the related fields. These ideas will be refined further as more information, suggestions and data that validates or invalidates portions of it is gathered, but I want to share it now, even though it may be in an unelegant unfinished state, and not explained in as graceful enough a manner as could be(I often mix and match information, and go mostly from memory, so there's no citations, though it's obviously thanks to the work of countless researchers and their sharing of said work that I've come up with these ideas, there may be some mistakes as a result of writing from memory, and some of my explanations may not be clear enough, so bare with me.).

It is a rather long read, so again bare with me, but I'm sure some may find it interesting and amidst the ideas presented, even if some turn out to be flawed, some useful ideas may remain and be of benefit.

The selection as cause of decay/aging hypothesis

The key to immortality, I believe, is selection. The germ line is immortal, that is a fact proved time and again by the persistence of complex life for countless hundreds of millions of years, by carefully examining it we can finally see what evidently bestows it with such immortality, the long sought out key factor towards immortality. It has seemingly been right in front of our noses all this time, we just didn't seem to notice it, despite basically describing it time and again. Natural selection is what prunes the ever occuring defects, and allows the viable progeny to remain, allowing for the species itself to persist, it is that which grants immortality to the species by culling the defects and allowing the functional to prosper.

The human body, and those of all organisms are in effect like small genetically crafted ecosystems. The various cells perform various defined roles in this ecosystem, and together their efforts allow for the persistence of the organism. Nature itself found the way to tap into the enormous power of cellular machinery, to bring about unheard of lvls of order, multicellular organisms, and the pinnacle of it all, the most complex object in the known universe, the human brain. In the uphill war agaisnt the tides of entropy one more battle was won by nature, from unicellular to multicellular, a greater lvl of order and complexity came to be.

What did nature do? How did it manage to organize and bring about complex persisting order? It did so, it unleashed but a portion of the immense power of the cell, with a counterintuitive solution, by crippling it. The evolutionary potential of many cells was hindered, the cells were limited to particular roles or functions, and their potential to survive outside those crafted niches where they performed their roles diminished(even the germ line cells have trouble surviving outside of their niche in the reproductive organs, through which they move while performing their functional role in reproduction.). Even the replicative potential of vast numbers of cells became limited to a set number of divisions, all to carry their function of increasing the probability that their sisters, carrying faithfull copies of the same genetic code would prosper. The cells were crippled by vast and ever more powerful regulatory mechanisms, that went so far as to destruct the cells themselves if they became damaged and began malfunctioning or attempted to escape their assigned function.The cells worked with one another to ensure this regulation was enforced, certain factors even had to be there or delivered for proper functions.

But alas this regulatory cascade stopped short, nature need not preserve the organism indefinitely, just long enough to reproduce, thus the power of immortality was bestowed to the species but not to the individual organisms composing it, selection would occur but at the organism lvl, so that evolution would occur at the group lvl as particular traits became more or less common through the population. Cells could malfunction and persist, cells could even escape their role and wreak havoc on the small well crafted ecosystem known as the organism. Defective cells and defects would persist, nature only brought the power of natural selection inside the organism, into the tissue lvl to a limited degree. The immortality that existed at the species lvl, and in larger ecosystems was not brought about to the organism itself, it left the job half done.

Let me give an example of the power of selection, bacterial populations in the wild are composed of exponentially simpler cells, yet bacteria as a whole can continue to exist indefinitely. Can the individual cell exist indefinitely? Well alone, if we think about it enough, no it cannot dmg would eventually and inevitably occur in the genetic program, such dmg would accumulate, most would be neutral or negative with little positive dmg, and it would eventually destroy the viability of this single lone cell. But a population of cells need not suffer this fate, it would be like a population of replicating nanomachines(actually, that is what most in the know, would say it is.), dmg would occur in all, but even though most dmg would tend to be neutral or negative, a small portion of the dmg would actually be positive(aka confer beneficial change at the genetic lvl.), an inevitable statistical truth. While defects accumulated rendering many defective, the portion of still viable replicating machines would replace the defective ones, in effect taking their place, time and again, this would continue to take place, and the population would remain viable. Aha, you say!!! But aren't each of those cells individually and each of their progeny individually with this beneficial dmg, mutations, subject to the same statistical laws, aka most of the dmg they'd get would be negative or neutral and each of them too would eventually lose viability along with its progeny. Well, actually yes it is true, if you think about it too most of the dmg is neutral or detrimental, the population will decrease in fitness and get screwed, as all individuals composing it are subject to this and we'd assume each will tend to lose more order at the genetic lvl than it gains over time(Think about it EACH individual cell is receiving more negative dmg than possitive dmg, this is inevitably increasing its lvl of entropy, disrupting the carefully orchaestrated molecular order needed for life. And each individual progeny of this cell is also subject to this same effect. Eventually, could take a long time, viability should inevitably be compromised in the entire group given a certain rate of dmg.).

Hmmm... but wait, wait a minute, that can't be right, you might say. I just said life itself is immortal and I've just said natural selection confered this immortality, HOW CAN WHAT I SAY BE TRUE, if there seems to be a logical contradiction. That contradiction arises, because I've purposely left something out of the equation, I've left out a very simple fact whose magnificient effects have been somewhat long overlooked. That little fact is genetic exchange. Genetic exchange between cells would bring about an even more complex interplay, genes with beneficial mutations would not be stuck in a sinking ship, that is amidst an ever deteriorating group of genes. Genes could spread about, and as they did so, the marvelous miracle of extropy would take hold.

Genes which'd received beneficial dmg and those with detrimental dmg would be moving throughout the population. While once beneficial mutations may've been stuck amidst a sea of mostly detrimental and neutral mutations to nearby information, with the latter two exceding the former in occurrence, now they would be free. These pieces of information would spread, and while the proportion of genes with novel beneficial mutations would initially be smaller than those with novel negative mutations, it would not remain SO FOR LONG. These genes, or pieces of information, with the rare beneficial mutation, as they spread throughout the population, they would increase the fitness of the cell in which they land, the detrimental ones would not they'd do the opposite. This would lead to the increase in order, due to the increased efficiency they conferred to their replication vessels, over the long term any gene with beneficial dmg which may've initially been rare, would become ever more common due to receiving the exponential benefits conferred to it by the enhanced replication of their hosts. While those with detrimental dmg diminished in replication efficiency, and these despite been constantly created in greater numbers than genes with beneficial dmg, would be outcompeted by these latter genes[with beneficial dmg] over the long term, due to said effects on replication potential.

An even greater miracle occurs as multiple genes with beneficial dmg happen to congregate. When more than one gene with beneficial dmg managed to land in the same replication vessel/cell, the cell's replication would be further enhanced maybe even synergistically by the effects of these two or more genes, and the combination itself would become more common as it outcompeted those with just one beneficial gene or the other. While the event itself was random and it would initially be rare for any novel beneficial mutations to come together, and more likely that detrimental ones would come, the situation would change over the long term. The initially rare beneficial mutations would spread becoming more common due to enhanced replication, as stated, and while the unceasing torrent of genes with negative/neutral mutations moving about would continue indefinitely, another rare novel beneficial mutation would have a greater likelyhood of landing on one of these cells with the now more common beneficial gene than it would have when that one was novel too, and thus this once rare event becomes more likely.

Whilst all the cells continue to each individually accrue mostly negative and neutral dmg with little beneficial dmg over time, and thus most genes they've tend to either remain the same or deteriorate with few genes improving in performance(again, causing entropy to increase in each individual cell and in each and every individual progeny cell), the proportion of the genes in the gene pool with beneficial dmg/increased function continues to increase, by the aforementioned effects any single beneficial mutation or combination of such has of ever increasing replication potential/efficiency, something brought about by the freedom of movement the genes get through genetic exchange. Which make novel and rare beneficial mutations eventually common in the population and thus more likely to group with other newer rare beneficial mutations that happen to arise in the population, that is brought about by the movement of genes throughout the population. This movement of genes, of information, is essential even for unicellular organisms, it is essential for the continued existence of life, it is the process that grants life its immortality through selection. Information like all else in this world is subject to increased disorder within a closed system, only in an open system, can order increase.

So as said natural selection occurs due to the exponential spreading of each and every individual beneficial gene or aggregation of such throughout the population due to genetic exchange. As this beneficial gene or gene group enhances the replicative potential of every host it happens to land on causing it to outcompete those organisms without it, which make it more likely any other newer rare beneficial gene jumping around will get together with this prior originally rare but now common gene or gene group, and so on ever more increasing the proportion of beneficial genes within a population and countering the ever present and more commonly occuring(in each and every organism) dmging mutations. Detrimental mutations while ever arising any novel such reduce the replication potential of their original host, the progeny of such and any organism it happens to jump to, and so novel detrimental mutations tend to eventually become exponentially[ due to reduced replication efficiency over the longterm] rarer, especially the worse its effects are, they remain only as they manage to persist due to not being detrimental enough to outright dissapear or simply arise again after dissapearing.

So how can we use this knowledge to make an organism immortal. Recall that life itself is immortal, and as we've seen barring any catastrophic change, ecosystems can persist pretty much indefinitely. As said the organism itself can be considered as a smaller ecosystem, a small community of diverse cells, so it too should hypothetically be able to persist indefinitely. We know, as I've said in the past, that even small populations of individuals with large generation times and few progeny can persist pretty much indefinitely. The only way they can do this, given that genetic damage is inevitable and most of it is negative and little is positive, is to greatly diminish the potential of mutations to occur(obviously this can't be stopped by natural selection in an ever changing world, as without change in such an ever changing world the particular species would be screwed.) and more thoroughly limit the capacity for negative mutations to spread, while still keeping the exchange of genetical information(without which the species' indefinite viability is compromised.) occuring to allow for the rare novel beneficial mutations to mix with other older and more common groups of beneficial mutations.

Exchange of genetical information is necessary between individual organisms, due to the fact that species need to adapt to an ever changing world, and thus a certain rate of variance in functionality must be allowed to persist in the population by allowing functional deviations of any kind, due to dmg to spread about, selection will cause mutations that increase fitness to be spread, to persist and those that decrease fitness will simply be culled by selection. But the rate of dmg must be controlled under certain circumstances, the greater the generation time and the smaller the number of offsprings, the lower the dmg rate must be such that the progeny itself receives very few mutations, such that selection whose power has been partially limited by reduced population and progeny size can still manage to cull out detrimental mutations, as they've become fewer/rarer, if populations become excesively too small selection's power of sustaining species immortality will be compromised too much and defects will begin to spread more easily reducing the viability of the group*(inbreeding). Thus by limitting the rate of dmg enough even decreasing the ability to exchange information, and the number of offspring, the power of selection to maintain indefinite fitness throughout the generations can be maintained. While once dmg to the genetic information was likely to accrue faster requiring smaller groups of genes to move about, which themselves were likely to receive only a portion of this faster occuring dmg, now that the entire genetic material is better protected larger groups of genes can viably perform the same function, of moving about, smaller groups did in the past, since they were unlikely to be dmg'ed thanks to the enhanced maintainance and repair mechanisms that had been developed.

With a reduced enough rate of dmg, the need for information exchange can be greatly reduced, that is why large rather than small chunks of information can be exchanged safely(since the large chunks haven't sustained significant dmg), a need reduced from one of preserving functional capacity to one of allowing for new combinations of variations to occur that are advantageous to the species. Thus even clonal reproducing organism with little if any gene exchange are viable, if limited in ability to adapt, due to most of their information being preserved long enough for viable copies to be made. The rate of dmg is low enough that a portion of the organisms will retain nigh perfect functional capacity long enough to replicate, thus creating at least another faithful functional copy of most of the information. The rate of copying/creating more faithful information will exceed the rate of information corruption, thanks to the limited rate of dmg. Even organisms with nigh perfect functional copies will themselves have their information corrupted over a long enough period of time, but it will have made enough faithful copies prior to that event that it wont matter at the species lvl. The newer organisms with faithful copies will continue to replenish the group indefinitely as they manage to copy their information faithfully before their own copies are corrupted too much, the more functional/fitter amongst their offspring will prosper and replicate more than their less fit offspring thanks to selection, sustaining fitness indefinitely(assuming no drastic change occurs as the ability to adapt to change is compromised due to a state of low or no genetic information exchange. Increasing the rate of information exchange in these circumstances can allow for adaptation in the face of changing environments.).

Individual cells are extremely versatile, yet by working alone they cannot easily achieve immortality due to the inability to carry thorough selection mechanisms at the lvl of the molecular parts that compose them, defects could accumulate(particularly the genetic information in the molecular tape... though with multiple internal copies of such information and thorough error correction mechanisms carried with such, this hypothetically might be delayed indefinitely. Though more than two copies of any particular piece of information would probably be needed to allow for thorough enough error correction to allow for indefinite delay of detrimental dmg accumulation. In any case adaptation would be compromised and such cells are unlikely to occur naturally in an ever changing world.). That is while it can constantly recycle the molecular machinery, the instructions for making and recycling such would eventually accrue dmg, mostly detrimental dmg, without some very thorough error correction mechanisms(which'd more probably than not require more than two copies), but working together they can achieve immortality even without exchanging genetic information. They can do this in the same way clonal organisms can persist for prolonged or indefinite amounts of time in their particular niche, while the environment is stable, without resorting to substantial information exchange during such periods of stability. Like some organisms fullfilling their roles in their niche in a particular ecosystem indefinitely, organisms that reproduce clonally, cells too can fullfill their roles within the tissues/niche of the organism/genetical-blueprint-crafted ecosystems indefinitely.

Selection can be used as the means to carry about what is effectively error correction at the cellular lvl. By substantially increasing the robustness of the internal regulatory mechanisms it should be possible to ensure that the cells are crippled enough that they can't escape whatever function they're assigned(be it as stem-cells in regenerative pools or carrying about particular functions in a particular organ). It should be possible to modify the cells so that there is no statistically significant way they can survive should they accrue any form of dmg that compromises their function substantially. Once this is accomplished any cell that accrues any substantial form of detrimental dmg in any gene related to its function will simply decrease in replication potential and will eventually self-destruct as it decreases in functionality. The ways to accomplish this is by making all of the components work more tightly with each other, by tightening regulation mechanisms, and thus by limitting the evolvability of the machine, which should make the cell die rather than hang on should it deteriorate in function.

A tissue can be engineered such that the factors it receives along with the interactions that take place within it promote the proliferation of the more functional cells within that tissue above those cells which may've become less functional, while causing the latter to self destruct if they deteriorate enough. By doing this the more able to carry about its function the cell is the more it will outcompete lesser more defective cells. Cells that have accrued too much dmg and have become too defective will simply self destruct(any other action such less functional cells take and it will probably interfere with any such function preserving mechanics and will probably negatively affect the whole organ and such throughout the organism will affect it as a whole.). This is possible if the cells have such repair and maintenance mechanisms that dmg accumulation is delayed enough to at least allow some highly functional cells to replicate allowing for two daughter cells that maintain function(the same thing that allows for persistence of clonal reproducing organisms, and organisms with reduced genetic exchange due to reduced number of offsprings and population size). So long as functional cells are being manufactured with little if any defect, faster than cells are deteriorating(which would occur slowly with a slow enough rate of avg. dmg), the intra-tissue selective factors/pressure will allow the more functional cells or those whose dmg has been neutral or with the rare beneficial mutation to their function to outcompete the less functional cells, as time goes on the cells that have lost the most function are culled by the selection process purifying the tissue from defects that may impair tissue function, and overall cell population fitness is maintained indefinitely as it is with cell or organism populations in the wild. This creates the same positive selection mentioned to occur with beneficial genes and organisms with slow rate of dmg but at the cellular lvl, due to the aforementioned diminishing of the rates of dmg, to the point that most genes in the cells are undamaged before a particular replication event, such low rates of dmg allow at least one of the daughters to remain as functional as the original, and so too some of the descendant progeny, those cells that retain function or have enhanced function will replicate more and replenish the cell pool with functional cells while at the same time selection culls the pool of cells that have accrued to much dmg and've exceeded a certain threshold. Information is being faithfully copied again and again, preserved, faster than any individual copy is deteriorating. Genetically orchaestrated forces within a tissue will perform the same function limited resources perform at the species lvl, creating a selection force that allows for sustained fitness within a particular niche/tissue by the proliferation of the fitter/more-functional organisms/cells and the culling of the less fit/less-functional organisms/cells.(Something that I believe already happens but to a limited degree in multicellular organism, to a greater degree the larger and more complex the organism.)

A similar mechanism may or may not occur even at the mitochondria lvl. IIRC, a recent study(which most here read.) suggested dmg to mito-dna repair mechanisms resulted in increased apoptosis, an increase in defect culling as more cells are exceeding the defect threshold. But an even more recent and highly controversial study(which will require further studies to confirm or invalidate it.) suggested mitochondria might migrate from cell to cell. If this turns out to be the case mitochondria selection can take place akin to the aforementioned event occuring with regards to genetic exchange in a particular cell population. Mitochondria would spread throughout the tissue from cell to cell, and any cell with less effective mitochondria would be less able to replicate, if too much dmg was accrued that particular group of mitochondria would be eliminated from the tissue. As the mitochondria moved about those cells with greater number of functional mitos would outcompete those with less functional mitos when it came to proliferating in the tissue and performing their functions well enough to persist in the tissue, thus they'd be able to spread even more. Those cells with less functional mitos would be less effective at replicating and performing their function and thus more likely to self destruct cleansing the tissues from any high in defective mito haven/cell. The replication and function benefits warranted by functional mitos would ensure these aided survival and replication(which would make them more common in the tissue and more likely to spread about than defective mitos that would continually arise but with time any such novel defect would also continually be culled from the mito population.) of their host cells, while the less functional the mito became the more it'd do the opposite until eventually the mito would cause destruction of cells harboring it, culling the cells with the most defective mitos. By tightening or loosening such regulation relating to mito selection the avg lvls of mito fitness sustained in organisms throughout their lifespan, and the lvl of mito efficiency in a particular species could be sustained at a particular lvl, and could be moved up or down to the lvl that's just enough, the lvl required throughout the generations for effective function and replication of the organism and no more(as there'd be no pressure to do so.). Again any less functional cell that avoided the self destruct culling mechanism would interfere with this beautiful hypothetical selection mechanism creating havens for defective mitos to survive the culling and persist in the mito population of the tissue spreading about ever more as such havens increased, and disrupting mito selection ever more, decreasing the fitness of the mito populations throughout the whole tissue. Defective mitos would as a result become ever more common throughout the tissue than they would otherwise be, even a small proportion of such havens/cells might be enough to disrupt the selection mechanism, and cause slowly increasing loss of function at the tissue and eventually whole organism lvl.

The problem, as said, is that the selection hasn't evolved to be thorough enough at containing the cells ability to escape the program(aka cancer), and there seems to be an inbuilt mechanism to disrupt selection ever more(senescent cells), it should be possible to make it so any event that increases the likelihood the cell will become deviant also exponentially increases the likelyhood it will self-destruct. Right now from what I've heard this is the case in most scenarios, in order for cancer to arise either a.) a certain sequence of mutations or epigenetic changes that frees the cell from its functional role has to occur, freeing it slowly ever more without causing it to selfdestruct, something that would happen if it started behaving deviantly under most other cases. b.) Drastic alterations to genetic material, aka duplications, losses or rearrengements of substantial chunks of regulatory information. The former can probably be stopped by closing the regulatory-loop holes that can arise should any single regulatory element be lost, produced less or in excess, making the regulatory functions more thorough, thus making cells self-destruct under pretty much any scenario where it starts to escape the program. For the latter the cells should also be made to be more sensitive to more types of such events so that more of them result in selfdestruction, and the few that don't are exponentially less likely to occur. Immunity can also be enhanced by making both the immune cells more apt at spotting deviants and most deviants more likely to display overt signs as the cells receive changes in the direction of escaping the regulatory death/culling signals. This is what I believe may've been done by nature to ensure more massive organism could better contain deviant cell formation, the regulatory mechanisms become ever more thorough making any particular sequence of mutations or epigenetic changes required for cancer exponentially less likely to occur as it'd have to be more specific or a longer sequence and making cells more sensitive to more kinds of rearrangements, loss, duplications of larger quantities of regulatory information, and tightening the organisms' defenses against such.

As for defective protein accumulation, another recent study recently suggested that one form of defective protein accumulation(amyloid) might actually accumulate due to a defect in the natural recycling of such. The choroid plexus was postulated to continually receive the ever forming defective protein aggregates in the brain and hypothesized to poses the enzymes necessary to degrade these defective molecular aggregates, declining function of such process resulting in the accumulation of defective proteins and Alzheimers. IT is not confirmed, but if such a mechanism for recycling defective protein aggregates is latter confirmed to exist in the brain, similar ones may exist elsewhere, and declining function of such cell populations at performing their functions may be behind at least some of the accumulation of certain defective protein aggregates. OF course should that be, that does not mean there aren't several kinds of defective protein accumulations for which no effective recycling occurs anywhere, for such new capabilities may've to be introduced into the body.

Temporary measures can probably be taken while we develop the more advanced knowledge required to enhance and increase the robustness of these hypothetical naturally occuring selection regulatory mechanisms. But once developed, the cells in a particular tissue should maintain function indefinitely thanks to robust regulatory mechanisms based selection, just as clonal populations in the wild are kept fit(assuming stable environment) indefinitely by limited resources selection,thanks to the sequence of events required to escape the cells programming being made so unlikely to occur as to pretty much be a statistical impossibility and as other cells that lose function will slowly be replaced by the more functional cells within that particular cellular population. As in ecosystems at large where particular roles are under most cases indefinitely fullfilled by functioning organisms, so too will happen within the organism, as the full power of selection will have been brought inside the organism. Like a group of replicating machines, increasing problems with replication or function will result in eventual total failure of the particular replicating unit and so too for each and everyone of its descendants that had less functionality, while the more effective units at replication and function will become ever more common and continue replenishing the tissue thanks to inbuilt robust regulatory selection mechanisms favoring them. The crippling of the cell will've been complete, it's evolvability compromised even further to the point its probability of escaping its particular role is a nigh statistical impossibility. The evolutionary force will have been grabbed by the throat and used to maintain optimal function of the cell populations in the body and nothing more. By defining cell fitness as functionality within the tissue, through robust regulatory mechanisms that'll cull defects and allow functional replicating units to create more viable faithful copies faster than any single/particular copy can be damaged. It's molecular machinery so tightly interwoven and regulated that it is more like a traditional machine than a living cell and exponentially more likely to simply breakdown/selfdestruct if its functions change to become less effective or diverges from them, thus being replaced by the replicating units that continue to function properly within the tissue. The newer mutations would constitute new information arriving in the system, an exchange of information, an open system, but the spread of these pieces of information would be controlled so as to stop detrimental information from spreading while allowing beneficial or neutral information to spread. It will be as it happens at the lvl of the species with inevitable selection altering the spread of novel information in favor of beneficial information over detrimental information, making the former which is initially rare eventually exponentially more common and the novel latter which more commonly and constantly arises exponentially less likely to spread with time throughout the population. So the organism's tissues will be immortal, as cell populations are in the wild, the selection regulatory mechanisms will cause crippled traditional-machine like behavior of the cell, as stated, such that deviation from optimal function either by lossing functional efficiency or by most sequences of events leading to escape from its role result in detrimental effects on the cell itself and eventually selfdestruction under most any statistically significant case, as selection happens in the wild, culling the less fit organisms so too will it happen as thoroughly within the tissues themselves. The immortality of the species will have been conferred to the organism itself, the genes will have crafted an organism/ecosystem so well, that it can persist indefinitely as do the naturally occuring ecosystems under normal circumstances.

#2 Mark Hamalainen

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Posted 02 April 2006 - 09:18 PM

Good to see another person take an interest in aging in relation to information and selection. Your ideas are quite similar to my own, a few years ago:

In order for life to stabilize information in a
viable form it needs a method of entropy export.
This is provided by replication coupled
with natural selection. Random mutations to a
germ-line’s genetic information are constantly
occurring and, of those which affect function,
most are deleterious. However, if the information
is continually copied at sufficiently high
levels, it is always possible to maintain a viable
subset. This process works most efficiently
when single copies of genetic information are
passed between generations. Each extra copy
would increase the probability of the new organism
carrying a deleterious mutation, decreasing
the fractional size of the viable subset.
Also, single copies can be scrutinized completely
by natural selection, whereas in the case
of multiple copies, some mutations would be
silent unless every copy carried them and could
accumulate rapidly.

The somatic body is a continually replicating
organism that passes every copy of its genetic
information from one instant to another. From
this perspective, it is obvious why natural
selection or some analogous internal selection
would be difficult. Each copy of genetic
information within us continually undergoes
changes independent of other copies. Our bodies
can try to destroy or silence deleterious mutations
by internal selection, but there are two
obstacles to this method: selection criteria and
positive selection. In natural selection, only a
single copy of information is passed from an
organism to the new generation and the selection
criteria is life or death. Whether the organism
is viable and able to reproduce, or not,
determines the survival of that copy. In this
way, natural selection is able to scrutinize the
entire content of a copy of information that
seeded an organism. Internal selection cannot
use these criteria. Whether a cell lives or dies
while in the somatic body does not depend on
the functionality of its entire genetic content.
Therefore, internal selection must try to approximate
natural selection’s abilities by other
means. There are only two ways to accomplish
this: either a copy can perform selection on itself
(intracellular selection), or it can be scrutinized
through comparison to another copy (intercellular
selection). Intracellular selection is
performed by built-in mechanisms that detect
deleterious changes to a cell’s biochemistry
and trigger death (apoptosis) or growth arrest
(cellular senescence). This system eventually
fails; since these mechanisms are encoded by
the DNA they are also vulnerable to incapacitated
by mutations. Intercellular selection is performed
by surface recognition (adaptive immunity
for example), and upon detection of an
abnormal biochemical state, results in either attacking
(by phagocytosis for example) or signaling
to the intracellular machinery of the abnormal
cell to destroy itself. These systems are
also subject to incapacitation by mutation, and
cannot work indefinitely. In addition, intra/intercellular
selection is limited by the ingenuity
of the selection criteria.
It is not feasible to select
for every possible deleterious mutation (indeed
this problem emerges in the context of
stem cell culturing), and this highlights the second
obstacle to internal selection: it has the potential
to become deleterious. Mutant copies of
information that increase their replication rate
and difficulty of being selected against will be
positively selected for. This problem is most obviously
manifested in cancer, where treatments
are designed to try to kill the cancer based on
differences (such as growth rate) detected between
the cancer and healthy tissue. Such treatments
are ultimately flawed for the same reasons
as intra/intercellular selection. Hence,
natural selection acts only on generations. It
does not stabilize informational deterioration
within the somatic body, and no internal selection
process can fully supplement it
From
an evolutionary perspective, maintenance of
the germ-line is most important. The somatic
body is just an elaborate shell designed to protect
it and be periodically discarded.


(see http://www.imminst.o...f=175&t=5821&s= for the rest)

Though I didn't get into in my paper, I've also considered how an organism could be designed such that internal selection would be sufficient for indefinite maintainence of a somatic body. However, redesigning the human body with such capabilities is much, much, much farther beyond our current abilities than repairing accumulated damage via SENS-style treatments.

Still, it is interesting to consider. I would recommend that you try and condense your ideas (currently they are barely readable), focus on what you think is most original, and include actual references. Then maybe we can get a serious scientific discussion going here at ImmInst...

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#3 apocalypse

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Posted 02 April 2006 - 10:44 PM

Though I didn't get into in my paper, I've also considered how an organism could be designed such that internal selection would be sufficient for indefinite maintainence of a somatic body.  However, redesigning the human body with such capabilities is much, much, much farther beyond our current abilities than repairing accumulated damage via SENS-style treatments.

Still, it is interesting to consider.  I would recommend that you try and condense your ideas (currently they are barely readable), focus on what you think is most original, and include actual references.  Then maybe we can get a serious scientific discussion going here at ImmInst...


I still beg to differ with regards to internal selection mechanisms viability. Nature has been able to continually fend off cancer and make exponentially larger long lived organisms with far larger cell populations and vast number of tissues being actively replenished, when necessary. Nature has also allowed for small populations with long lived individuals and few progeny(aka few subsequent copies, and less genetic exchange due to limited progeny and population size) to be viable nigh indefinitely. Some of these massive organisms while their metabolic rate may be slower than smaller ones are still subject to bio-accumulative agents, and environmental carcinogen factors which should still have effect over the larger population of cells increasing the probability of dmg, mutation, along with additional errors in replication due to the more massive number of cells and tissues being actively replenished.

So I'll condense my ideas, be aware that the reasoning for the following is in the original post. In essence every single copy, every single cell is going to be destroyed by loss of information fidelity given some time. It is virtually inevitable that this will occur, all copies will eventually be dmg'ed, and such dmg which continues to occur in each and every subsequent copy/cell will inevitably accumulate rendering the whole population unviable if no selection mechanism is present. This is due to the fact that most of the dmg will be detrimental[edit: as compared to beneficial dmg.], and will inevitably affect every single cell(replication errors, biochemical dmg due to metabolism or other factors.) and will constantly accrue rendering any individual cell and everyone of its individual progeny cells eventually nonviable. No single copy can escape unharmed. The only way to deal with this inevitable attack of entropy on each and every individual progeny cell is to cause a statistical imbalance in the population of copies/cells favoring copies which have received mostly neutral or beneficial dmg and culling copies that have received substantial detrimental dmg, Apoptosis. Without this selection carried out amongst the cells replenishing tissues and the germ line, organisms especially large long lived organisms would be unviable(all cells replenishing the tissues are subject to dmg, selection due to advanced regulation can prolong cell population functionality and delay deviant cell formation ever more as it is increased in strength by evolutionary pressure, say a species that is slowly becoming larger or switching reproductive strategies. ) and the species itself would eventually lose fitness and become unviable[aka if selection wasn't carried out additionally at the germ line cellular lvl in addition to the organism lvl.].

Internal selection mechanisms, if they were possible as I suggest, would offer an immense advantage to organisms by allowing more tissues to retain function for ever longer periods of time, and by allowing the most efficient(within the range of natural occuring dmg) cells to proliferate and carry about tissue function. Given such an immense advantage there would be evolutionary pressure for such a mechanism, if it ever arose even partially, to spread and increase in strength for larger organisms as greater need arose.

Edited by apocalypse, 02 April 2006 - 11:03 PM.


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#4 Mark Hamalainen

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Posted 02 April 2006 - 11:33 PM

I still beg to differ with regards to internal selection mechanisms viability.  Nature has been able to continually fend off cancer and make exponentially larger long lived organisms with far larger cell populations and vast number of tissues being actively replenished, when necessary.


Any specific suggestions as to how we can use this information to develop medical treatments that significantly extend lifespan? That increase in lifespan has occured over many millions of years of evolution, artifically extending that process is not a simple matter, or even logical. For one, larger animals have longer development times during which the accumulation of damage is diluted by growth. Most importantly though, trying to increase the fidelity of selection will give you dimishing returns. And how will you test the effectiveness of a modification you think increases that fidelity? Wait 75 years to see how much improvement you've gotten?

Nature has also allowed for small populations with long lived individuals and few progeny(aka few subsequent copies, and less genetic exchange due to limited progeny and population size) to be viable nigh indefinitely.


A small number of birthed progeny ignores the much larger number of attempted progeny, such as aborted fetuses, and sperm and eggs that did not make it to conception.

In essence every single copy, every single cell is going to be destroyed by loss of information fidelity given some time.  It is virtually inevitable that this will occur, all copies will eventually be dmg'ed, and such dmg which continues to occur in each and every subsequent copy/cell will inevitably accumulate rendering the whole population unviable if no selection mechanism is present.


Exactly, I agree that this is the essence of aging.

The only way to deal with this inevitable attack of entropy on each and every individual progeny cell is to cause a statistical imbalance in the population of copies/cells favoring copies which have received mostly neutral or beneficial dmg and culling copies that have received substantial detrimental dmg, Apoptosis.


I disagree. An external source of information could be used to replace damaged copies. It would of course be ideal to have to replace that information as infrequent as possible.

Internal selection mechanisms, if they were possible as I suggest, would offer an immense advantage to organisms by allowing more tissues to retain function for ever longer periods of time, and by allowing the most efficient(within the range of natural occuring dmg) cells to proliferate and carry about tissue function.


They would be beneficial in terms of life-extension, but I maintain that implementing such mechanisms is a greater challenge than SENS-style repair of damage. Some level of damage is inevitible since no process is 100% efficient, and slowing the rate of aging gives diminishing returns. SENS accepts those problems, and circumvents them by repairing damage after it has occurred. It also provides immediately measureable results, the decreased concentrations of damages that have been repaired.

#5 John Schloendorn

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 01:42 AM

That's it, perfectly put. The engineering approach is the best shot we're going to get. Join the growing crowd.

#6 apocalypse

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 02:05 AM

post quote corruption due to edit, will have to repost.

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#7 apocalypse

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 02:13 AM

Any specific suggestions as to how we can use this information to develop medical treatments that significantly extend lifespan?  That increase in lifespan has occured over many millions of years of evolution, artifically extending that process is not a simple matter, or even logical.  For one, larger animals have longer development times during which the accumulation of damage is diluted by growth.  Most importantly though, trying to increase the fidelity of selection will give you dimishing returns.  And how will you test the effectiveness of a modification you think increases that fidelity?  Wait 75 years to see how much improvement you've gotten?

Millions of years of very SLOW CHANGE, evolution occurs slowly especially the longer the generational time. Not to mention most structural/functional machinery have been preserved(there are closely related species with exponential differences in lifespan, and even organisms within some species with exponentially different lifespan. Which imply most of the machinery has been kept in such cases. ), its primarily changes to regulatory elements, and machinery involved in such that generates the greater proportion of the changes.

A small number of birthed progeny ignores the much larger number of attempted progeny, such as aborted fetuses, and sperm and eggs that did not make it to conception.

Those are what I meant when I said cellular/internal selection of the germ line.

Exactly, I agree that this is the essence of aging.

Such will lead to the inevitable deterioration of cell function/fitness in any population or subset of a population of cells not subject to a selection mechanism.

I disagree.  An external source of information could be used to replace damaged copies.  It would of course be ideal to have to replace that information as infrequent as possible.

Well its true, but I meant through, the possible, evolved mechanisms used to extend organism lifespan between species by nature.

They would be beneficial in terms of life-extension, but I maintain that implementing such mechanisms is a greater challenge than SENS-style repair of damage.  Some level of damage is inevitible since no process is 100% efficient, and slowing the rate of aging gives diminishing returns.  SENS accepts those problems, and circumvents them by repairing damage after it has occurred.  It also provides immediately measureable results, the decreased concentrations of damages that have been repaired.


I posit that they exist, and that even minor alteration to these existing mechanisms can lead to exponential increases in lifespan as seen in nature, in closely related species and organisms with exponentially different lifespans, and as seen in mutations of single genes leading to exponentially greater lifespan. Significant alterations would lead to negligible senescence, if coupled with the means to degrade any aggregates that are not truly being dealt with by functional tissues(I talked about the recent article showing amyloid aggregates are likely degraded by the body and its a decay in such function that leads to accumulation of such. Such may or may not be true seeing as it needs further confirmation.).

In sum, any individual cell and any population of cells will continually decrease in fitness, if ever so slowly, given time be it outside or inside the body until the point they're not able to carry about their function, that is they will do so while not being subjected to a selection mechanism. The tissues of the body being composed of cells will be subject to the constant rate of decay of each and every cell composing it, that is the entire cellular population will be in constant decay, again if ever so slowly, at all times if a selection mechanism is not present. This is not something that happens at some latter age, but something that happens since the very first cell formation(sperm egg fusion product, zygote), this affects the entire organism during development(each and every cell and each and every individual progeny of that cell and all subsequent progeny are slowly lossing fitness if they are not subjected to a selection mechanism.) and it gets worse with time, so the greater the generational time the greater the loss of fitness of the cell population prior to reproduction if no selection mechanism is present. Even worse when you take into account the likelyhood of at least some nutritional deficiencies, the need for constant replenishment of some tissues, and the presence of varying lvls of carcinogens/mutagens in the environment. In order to sustain organism fitness with ever increasing size/generation time until the point that this delayed reproductive function is achieved, and the adult organism manages to raise its offspring(in certain species), a selection mechanism must be performed on the cells composing it to maintain fitness by managing the constant deterioration/decay that occurs from the moment of conception, on each and every cell composing the body. We also know of organisms which exhibit negligible senescence, what I've posited is that a cell population by its very nature is in a state of constant decay unless subjected to a selection mechanism, thus negligible senescence should be impossible without such[ edit: in nature].

The key to intra-tissue selection is not as tough as it may seem. That tissue is in essence a niche within the ecosystem/organism, just like those that exist outside the organism, were cell populations are affected by selection and preserved indefinitely carrying about their functions. You only have to make it so certain cells can't easily survive outside of a particular tissue(due to necessary factors), and the genetic instructions used to carry out their particular functions be made to be tightly interwoven with their metabolic and apoptotic regulatory functions, making it so its ability to survive/replicate within a tissue is tightly linked to its ability to carry about its particular function within it, making it so that any deviation from this will tend to result in self-destruction under most scenarios, like say mutations or epigenetic changes, causing deviation. Of course there is always the possibility that any single one of those regulatory elements will become disabled, but if the regulatory network is designed with such a possibility taken into account, loss of most any single regulatory element will cause the regulatory network of elements to skew the cell's path in the direction of apoptosis. A tight enough network of regulatory elements will be able to withstand massive alterations in the lvs or dissapearance of regulatory elements, while still being able to carry about its function(such losses would steer cells with these networks in the direction of self-destruction.).

In other words the key to intra-tissue selection is to carry about a robust error correction mechanism in the tissue at the lvl of individual cells. This is done by diminishing the rate of dmg, crippling cells so as to carry a defined function and decreasing its ability to survive outside its niche/tissue, and carrying about selection through a robust network of elements capable of dealing with alterations in the network and its elements, maintaining a capability to carry about their function through their collective action. Such networks would be able to manage most form of deviation from function be it by loss of functionality or events leading the cell in a path outside its permitted role. They would also be able to survive most any mutation that altered or caused losses in most any regulatory element, while maintaining function. They can be made so that a very large number of specific mutations(information loss) are needed to disable the entire regulatory network's function. Thus as such networks became more and more robust the probability would be ever more diminished that any single cell would deviate from its optimal function and escape its programming.

If the idea that every single cell is subject to constant deterioration, and every single one of its progeny will be under constant decay and will decrease in fitness eventually losing complete viability, turns out to be true. And thus the only [evolvable/internal/natural] way to preserve any population of cells is by carrying out a selection mechanism, skewing the statistics in favor of the most functional cells remaining, and such exist within an organism... or job just became much easier. No need for external perfect copies if there is a higher lvl inbuilt error correction program going on. We may not even have to deal with the tougher jobs of dealing with mito mutations, and we'd have the key towards putting an end to cancer itself without relying on crude ungraceful methodologies such as WILT(notice that in my first post I postulate a hypothetical explanation of the means used by nature to decrease cancer probabilities exponentially when pressured to do so.). Or job would at most be to introduce a few additions to the body's regulatory networks(probably taken from extremely large animals or designed with our increased knowledge of the changes made to these regulatory networks made between various organisms), a few enzymes to degrade some of the dmg that may be accumulating, and wiping out cells designed to interfere with this process and whose primary function is to disrupt tissue function and renewal and also wiping deviant cells(aka the former senescent and the latter cancer from existing tissues).(most of which could be done easily through the introduction of aptly genetically modified engineered cells and tissues/organs.). Once such treatments were completed no new additional treatment would be required, the organism/genetically-crafted-ecosystem itself would be immortal like naturally occuring ecosystems, and would indefinitely evade death unless presented with catastrophic change(aka, extreme heat, radiation, fragmentation or the like.).

Keep in mind that the ideas presented in the first post give an elaborate and logically consistent explanation for the decay/aging of biological systems in general, from the unicellular to the multicellular, and posit mechanisms to both extend function and delay deviant cell formation resulting in extended lifespan, as well as allow for the possibility of negligible senescence to occur in the wild and a very general explanation to the mechanics behind such. It is consistent with all data I can recall at this moment, and some of the latter paragraphs reflect even more recent information to which I've been exposed. Now that I've read your article, I'd say it adds/elaborates further giving some additional insight with regards to the particular subject.(That is if it turns out to be true.)

#8 John Schloendorn

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 03:16 AM

All good. The following points remain.

- Implementing your strategy in existing, aged organisms is not at all "easily done". You're speaking of modifying every cell in the body with a possibly gigantic genetic payload, which is just plain science fiction at this time.

- Even if you could implement your changes by "the introduction of aptly genetically modified engineered cells and tissues/organs", you could just as well periodically introduce young cells and tissues/organs that have not been aptly genetically modified (i.e. fixing the damage). This clearly involves less effort than aptly modifying them first. If we got the tissue replacement to work and survive, we could get as much as another human life-span. That's plenty of time to worry about your super-longevity mechanisms for later.

- You have not addressed Osiris' objection that you could not test your interventions without decade-long trials, and there is no telling how many trials you'd need to run before you actually get it to work.

- Thoroughly characterizing the longevity mechanisms of long-lived species, on which your strategy relies, would almost certainly involve actually aging these species at least once, introducing another couple of centuries wait.

- What's so bad about fixing the damage direclty? We need to compare the two strategies, and then decide which is better.

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 04:10 AM

That's a nice essay, apocalypse. Thank you for sharing these ideas. When you get time, put in some section headings and write an abstract to make it more readable and accessible to a wider audience. As osiris suggested some references would also increase the value of your hypothesis. By doing the above you may find you gain even more insight into the aging problem in the way you have defined it.

you could just as well periodically introduce young cells and tissues/organs that have not been aptly genetically modified (i.e. fixing the damage)


An even more elegant solution, John, is to stimulate all stem cell reservoirs to bring production back up to late teen levels whilst increasing the expression of tumor supressors and DNA damage sensors coupled to cell cycle control. Remember the heterochronic parabiosis study? The Ellison foundation has recognised the value of this research with an award.

#10 John Schloendorn

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 04:54 AM

An even more elegant solution, John ...

Yes, interesting Idea, if you can implement and test it. However, my point was merely that my "solution" is too difficult, and hence Apocalypse's solution, which is my solution plus something else, is too difficult, too.

#11 apocalypse

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 04:57 AM

All good. The following points remain.

- Implementing your strategy in existing, aged organisms is not at all "easily done". You're speaking of modifying every cell in the body with a possibly gigantic genetic payload, which is just plain science fiction at this time.

Unlikely if my following statements hold true. Even drug like molecules, and combinations of such stand to alter existing regulatory networks favorably and could confer exponential life extension

- Even if you could implement your changes by "the introduction of aptly genetically modified engineered cells and tissues/organs", you could just as well periodically introduce young cells and tissues/organs that have not been aptly genetically modified (i.e. fixing the damage). This clearly involves less effort than aptly modifying them first. If we got the tissue replacement to work and survive, we could get as much as another human life-span. That's plenty of time to worry about your super-longevity mechanisms for later.

Those are the changes I propose to permanently bestow negligible senescence without requiring further treatments, while being in a stable environment. I believe they're not needed to gain substantially greater lifespan, just to gain indefinite lifespan extension. As I reported temporary solutions are recommended in the meanwhile. In any case a crucial point in the implementation will have to be dealt with regardless, and is already a part of sens, simply getting rid of defective cells(senescent) and cells that become deviant(cancer).

I also posit that senescent cells primary functions might very well be disrupting effective tissue renewal/function and increasing the likelyhood deviancy/cancer arises in the cell population.

- You have not addressed Osiris' objection that you could not test your interventions without decade-long trials, and there is no telling how many trials you'd need to run before you actually get it to work.

With the following information I'll present it will all(hopefully) become clear. Countless hypotheses that can be tested arise straight out of these ideas. R&D development paths in antiaging research and insights into the fundamental nature of decay are given, if proven to be correct.

- Thoroughly characterizing the longevity mechanisms of long-lived species, on which your strategy relies, would almost certainly involve actually aging these species at least once, introducing another couple of centuries wait.

Not really we already have full genomes of many species, large chunks of the genetic information is essentially recycled/reused, and we're learning ever more how all the pieces function together. We also've knowledge of the variations in lifespan amongst various organisms, and the aforementioned existence of organisms of closely related species and within some species with exponentially different lifespans. Suggesting areas of research were we might find regulatory difference(actually, if I remember correctly one of these comparisons was quite shocking. Again IIRC, two closely related species had an insane difference in lifespan, one either living for like 80yrs or being negligibly senescent and the other living for just a few years, like 6. I'll have to check up on that one.)

- What's so bad about fixing the damage direclty? We need to compare the two strategies, and then decide which is better.

It's actually claiming there may be a fundamental property of life with relationship to decay left unaddressed and shortcuts to negligible senescence exists, no need to do extra work if this happens to be correct.


In essence this argument further completes the link between the laws of themordynamics and life itself. It essentially says the same thing we've been saying time and again and that's been right in front of us all this time. Every biological system, from unicellular organisms to multicellular systems, to the very germ line itself is in a state of constant decay. The counterintuitive insight is that the entirety of life itself is actually in a state of constant decay that would eventually destroy its viability, and that actually destroys the viability of each and every individual cell, that every single element of the whole is mortal, and it is only through the mechanics of selection that this constant increase of entropy in the system is fought.

The key to the immortality of life itself, is that no one element is immortal and all of the information carried is actually being slowly corrupted as time goes on, but selection pressures allows this dmg, this entropy gradient to be exploited to grant increased complexity, indefinite persistence, and immortality. Thus it posits a new virtually fundamental and counterintuitive but evident property of life, death, a property of each and every single functioning cell under most any circumstance given time.

It also posits that not only single cells but entire unicellular and even multicellular populations subjected to a certain rate of dmg(This dmg threshold necessary to cause longterm loss of viability in the population is raised when repair/maintenance mechanisms are improved/increased.) will eventually become unviable/die entirely, if no means for genetic exchange is present.

My personal beliefs with regards to these effects and their relationship with aging is quite simple. The c-elegans has been shown to have a regulatory network causing an exponentially(iirc, like 6fold) lower than possible lifespan. Salmon have been shown to be programmed to self destruct. And even single cell mutations confer substantial life extension in a variety of organisms while increasing the resistance to stress of such organisms. What I believe is that the strength of the entropical cascade eroding the order of life is so strong that the regulatory networks evolved, used to stop cell populations from diminishing in fitness prior to reproduction, have to be so thorough at doing their functions and preserving function that they lead to exponentially longer than optimal, for species success, lifespans. These extended lifespans cause each and every surviving individual to continue taking the limited environmental resources for an extended period of time and, even if ever so slightly, compromise the development of the next generation carrying newer genetic combinations. Even as such individuals are killed in the environment, they're being replaced by the subpopulation of the fittest organisms' progeny that have been better able to evade death and survive in the present environment. This enhanced replication ability of the fittest and their offspring and their ability to take resources away from those less fit, will cause a stronger, if ever so slightly, directional selection and diminish variation in the gene pool compromising group adaptability if allowed to go on. Even certain degrees of variation within the population must be preserved to allow for optimal continued adaptation to a changing environment. Groups that do this will outcompete groups that do not in the long run. To limit the success of the fittest and their offspring at replication and by so doing better preserve variation in the gene pool, mechanisms to compromise any excess in lifespan granted by the robustness of any particular regulatory network(which must keep the organism viable till particular reproduction/raising age) have arised.

In sum, the robust mechanisms necessary to achieve optimal probability of reaching reproductive age are such that they would normally confer significantly longer than optimal, for the species longterm success, lifespan. As a result of this, the descendants of those organisms that just so happened to've acquired detrimental factors that slowly interfered with this excess suboptimal longevity potential, eventually outcompeted those that did not. This was so due to a greater lvl of genetic variation in the gene pool, allowing for better adaptation to environmental change, obtained by limitting the degree to which the fitter organisms and their offspring could replicate and thus outcompete the less fit for resources. Groups with more robust lifespan limiting agents better stopped any of the fitter organisms from escaping the program and having their descendants outcompete the less fit exponentially better over the short term, causing a loss in gene pool diversity due to stronger directional selection.

In social long lived species an even greater effect occurs. Any strong social group will result in enhanced survival of individuals composing it(at least those that survive childhood), besides priviledges, such individuals could drain resources from their particular tribe/group that would be optimally, at least in terms of success, left to the next generation. These groups simply couldn't evolve to stop caring for their fellow beings, as social group stability/integrity would be compromised, so an alternate solution evolved and spread about, those fellow beings will be allowed to spread their experience, help care for the tribe, but will slowly be destroyed. Groups with this attribute would simply outcompetes groups without it as more resources would be left for caring for the next generation, the gradual destruction would allow them to pass of their knowledge while not being able to compete with members of the next generation or drain resources from them( a cost that is only allowed to occur to the point their experience and cares compensate for it, by benefitting the success of the next generation but which eventually becomes detrimental. As the effects exponentially diminish the function of regulatory networks rejuvenation/extropy potential, the body's screwed to the point's it's left to survive with the reliability of components subject to degradation by entropy. ).

PS

Prometheus, that would take several days of research, and I'm dealing with significant time constraints at the moment. I'm going from memory here also, and I've acquired information from too many sources over a very long period of time.

But I can summarize it even more to make it more accessible, in a few sentences. If you think about it each cell and its daughters will be slowly deteriorating constantly and all internal information will slowly become corrupt, compromising the survival of even the entire cell group over time given a certain rate of damage. Genetic exchanges allows this fate to be avoided by allowing smaller chunks of information, many not yet corrupted, to survive by spreading throughout the cell population. The necessary rate of dmg for this can be raised by increasing maintenance/repair mechanisms thanks to the presence of selection, lowering the need for genetic exchange with regards to function preservation, but the ability to exchange genes in stressful situations in order to increase adaptability to environmental change would still be beneficial. Without selection and sufficient maintenance/repair mechanisms or alternatively at least the presence of genetic exchange, any cell population will slowly deteriorate and as a whole lose viability/die.

#12 Mark Hamalainen

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 05:01 AM

An even more elegant solution, John, is to stimulate all stem cell reservoirs to bring production back up to late teen levels whilst increasing the expression of tumor supressors and DNA damage sensors coupled to cell cycle control.


That may work for some time, but I think we were talking about the longer term. Corruption of information is inevitible without external replacement (as John suggests with a source of healthy young cells), or some elaborate internal selection method (at least, in theory...).

#13 Mark Hamalainen

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 05:22 AM

Optimism is good, but a healthy dose of critical thinking and skepticism is also necessary. Normally us SENS advocates are the ones accused of being overly optimistic... [sfty]

Even drug like molecules, and combinations of such stand to alter existing regulatory networks favorably and could confer exponential life extension


My personal beliefs with regards to these effects and their relationship with aging is quite simple. The c-elegans has been shown to have a regulatory network causing an exponentially(iirc, like 6fold) lower than possible lifespan.


There is no evidence for this being the case in humans. There are a variety of reasons why you can't directly compare humans to c.elegans or other small short lived animals in terms of lifespan (see http://www.sens.org/weatherPP.pdf).

- You have not addressed Osiris' objection that you could not test your interventions without decade-long trials, and there is no telling how many trials you'd need to run before you actually get it to work.


You still haven't addressed this. Yes we have lots of genome data and can do comparisons between closely related organisms, but you still need to do thurough testing in vivo. If you have any lab experience you'll know that the tests virtually never go exactly as you expected, let alone succeed perfectly the first time. Which is why you have to test them...

#14 John Schloendorn

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 05:30 AM

Apocalypse,
I understand your arguments and believe your thermodynamics hit the point and your evolutionary theory is controversial, but for the most part defensible. But the solution to the aging problem you put forward continues to fall before the objections we presented. You have attacked our objections with decent rhetorics, but cannot offer either data nor argument that your dream interventions will be anything other than a convenience, after the problem of age-related dysfunction has long been taken care of.

You have analyzed and presented the problem of aging very skillfully. But the solution that elegantly suggests itself from the picture you draw is SENS, not tampering with metabolism...

#15 John Schloendorn

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 06:31 AM

That may work for some time, but I think we were talking about the longer term. Corruption of information is inevitible without external replacement

Not sure if I fully agree there. Consider for example a large swarm of dodos. Individual dodos age and die, but in the right environment, the swarm can essentially self-renew, continue to exist and even improve forever, only due to the way it internally processes information. The continued dissipation of entropy by the swarm is limited by an external energy source, but not dependent on any direct, external informational template. If I understand Apocalypse's view correctly, then our bodies should become organized more like dodo swarms, and less like individual dodos, is that it?

So my issues are not with the long-term sustainability of the idea, but only with its practical feasibility and relevance.

#16 apocalypse

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 07:55 AM

Not sure if I fully agree there. Consider for example a large swarm of dodos. Individual dodos age and die, but in the right environment, the swarm can essentially self-renew, continue to exist and even improve forever, only due to the way it internally processes information. The continued dissipation of entropy by the swarm is limited by an external energy source, but not dependent on any direct, external informational template. If I understand Apocalypse's view correctly, then our bodies should become organized more like dodo swarms, and less like individual dodos, is that it?

So my issues are not with the long-term sustainability of the idea, but only with its practical feasibility and relevance.

Correct

But what I'm also saying is that the body is already organized as such to a certain degree, as all cell populations are subjects to erosion of functionality due to entropy if not subjected to some form of selection. The various tissues are constructed so as to simulate niches in ecosystems, by limitting the cells themselves, and allowing for an internal selection, error correction, mechanism to arise. Evolution was simply not thorough enough to further increase these selection, error correction, mechanisms to the point were indefinite delay of cell population decay was made possible(at least in most organisms). I also posit that approaching such natural selection mimicking effects is the means by which lifespan is extended between species, and when completed can lead to negligible senescence(stronger methods may be required in organisms with greater rates of dmg,), and that such is done through the aforementioned method of increasing the functionality and size of a robust regulatory network of elements able to function despite alterations to the elements composing it.

In addition I posit that in a sense while existing mechanisms may not be enough to indefinitely delay decay, their full cell population viability extending effects may be limited by certain intrinsic factors designed to limit survival of the fittest organisms and their descendants.

Optimism is good]

There is no evidence for this being the case in humans.  There are a variety of reasons why you can't directly compare humans to c.elegans or other small short lived animals in terms of lifespan (see http://www.sens.org/weatherPP.pdf).

You still haven't addressed this.  Yes we have lots of genome data and can do comparisons between closely related organisms, but you still need to do thurough testing in vivo.  If you have any lab experience you'll know that the tests virtually never go exactly as you expected, let alone succeed perfectly the first time.  Which is why you have to test them...

Well I don't expect them to be tried in full until they've a strong theoretical backing, just to guide and give a better idea of the whole problem. CR mimetics are already under development, I consider them to be countering a small portion of the inbuilt mechanisms I've posited exist to limit maximum potential lifespan. CR itself has shown promising results in both long lived primate data, and in human subjects. Human populations with certain lvls of cr, or which consume substances known to contain supposed cr-mimetics are said to've beneficial health profiles, and interesting changes in lifespan statistics. The evidence for inbuilt limits in maximum potential lifespan of a particular organism are seen through the existence of single gene mutations that confer lifespan extension in countless species, and the proven life extension effects of cr on multiple species. As for limits in what can be achieved with metabolic tweaking and/or cr and/or mimetics, substantial drops in certain causes of mortality and in all cause mortality can be observed in statistical studies of human populations. I believe that if say, over a decade, all cause mortality was reduced by say half in a particular group, that group stands a good chance of outliving the other and exceeding its avg lifespan and avg max lifespan if such a difference in rate is sustained(let's face it with a large enough pop. size maximum lifespan can reach otherworldly heights, as exponential increases in mortality rates come to a stop at the more advanced ages, and its more a question of number of individuals reaching those than individual health.). On top of that it is likely that the longest lived human(actually several of the longest lived) consumed some lvls of cr mimetics, beneficial genetic elements are also said to noticeably influence longevity in human populations.

Arguments against programmed aging can be countered by the decay of function that is said to begin to occur even very near to the age of viable reproduction potential even in humans(some cardiovascular system deterioration I've heard begins to occur from the very early teens.). Even healthy young individuals are subject to the forces of decay. In addition an organism need not reach old age for any antiaging trait to have exponential effects on the gene pool, even a moderate increase in greater function retention during youth or a small increase in healthspan will have exponential repercutions on the genepool due to descendant/replication magnification. A single individual may be killed but the fact all its progeny will not easily be killed especially the fitter it is for the particular environment remains. For any such fit that dies all less fit and all progeny of these less fit organisms will have a greater likelyhood of death. The exponential effects of countering aging cannot be seen at the lvls of a single individual but through the small enhancement in replication potential each and every progeny and their subsequent descendants would receive, so that the effect becomes evident at the species lvl, any such boost will result in increasing, however slightly, the proportion of fitter organism descendants composing subsequent generations, and as such lead to a stronger lvl of directional selection depleting, if ever so slightly, the variation in the gene pool over stable periods of time and compromising survival during subsequent environmental change periods.

Again such ideas(on insufficient strength of selection mechanisms as a fundamental cause of decay, and programmed aging as a means to counter excess lifespan resulting from attempts to maximize fitness through robust mechanisms during development time.) posit specific explanations to both lifespan differences between and within species, and the means by which such differences are brought about(by increasing lifespan), they also posit the reasons genetic exchange allows populations to survive and recuperate from any inbreeding event, and how such raise the dmg threshold of the population by reducing the size of the information transmitted, and thus the lvl of corruption, thus the reason for sex and other forms of genetic exchange. They also posit that improved maintenance/repair mechanisms essentially increase the size of information packets that can be viably transmitted, by slowing the corruption of such information so that in general they've similar lvls of corruptions as the previously smaller packets of information which were required when lower lvls of maintenance/repair were present. Explanations for the limited lifespan of single cells, and organisms with a limited number of differentiated cells also arise elegantly out of these ideas. It also explains how naturally negligible senescent organisms can maintain such traits, and how even closely related species to these or long lived related species, may've an exponentially shorter lifespan. Without these ideas we're left with no viable path, afaik, for nature to exponentially reduce cancer incidence and increase organism function indefinitely. In addition they elucidate the mechanism by which life itself avoids destruction.

#17 Mark Hamalainen

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 03:06 PM

Not sure if I fully agree there. Consider for example a large swarm of dodos. Individual dodos age and die, but in the right environment, the swarm can essentially self-renew, continue to exist and even improve forever, only due to the way it internally processes information. The continued dissipation of entropy by the swarm is limited by an external energy source, but not dependent on any direct, external informational template. If I understand Apocalypse's view correctly, then our bodies should become organized more like dodo swarms, and less like individual dodos, is that it?

So my issues are not with the long-term sustainability of the idea, but only with its practical feasibility and relevance.


You didn't quote the whole sentence

Corruption of information is inevitible without external replacement (as John suggests with a source of healthy young cells), or some elaborate internal selection method (at least, in theory...).



#18 Mark Hamalainen

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 03:24 PM

Well I don't expect them to be tried in full until they've a strong theoretical backing, just to guide and give a better idea of the whole problem.


Yes, and they do have to be tried... and those trials will take time... thats the point.

CR mimetics are already under development, I consider them to be countering a small portion of the inbuilt mechanisms I've posited exist to limit maximum potential lifespan. CR itself has shown promising results in both long lived primate data, and in human subjects.


I'm disappointed... all this and we've come back to the same old argument between life extension via longevity tweaks, and actual repair/reversal of aging via SENS. CR will get you a couple of percent life extension, and not very consistently. It might work for you, or you might die at a normal age like many of the people who have attempted CR. Not a very proactive solution.

let's face it with a large enough pop. size maximum lifespan can reach otherworldly heights, as exponential increases in mortality rates come to a stop at the more advanced ages, and its more a question of number of individuals reaching those than individual health


The idea that senescence becomes negligible at very old ages is a fallacy (http://www.sens.org/manu18.pdf). It's just a statistical artifact that occurs at an age where most of the population is long dead, and unfortunately statistical artifacts aren't useful for developing tangible and effective medical treatments.

#19 bgwowk

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 04:16 PM

The idea that senescence becomes negligible at very old ages is a fallacy (http://www.sens.org/manu18.pdf). It's just a statistical artifact that occurs at an age where most of the population is long dead, and unfortunately statistical artifacts aren't useful for developing tangible and effective medical treatments.

Actually the cited reference states "either explanation may therefore be correct." As discussed with Michael Rose during the Q&A at the recent Imminst conference, we will know the answer in humans within another couple of decades when the burgeoning population of centarians should translate to a burgeoning population of 120+ year-olds if Rose's theory is correct. We should also expect to see someone naturally bust 130 years.

There is no theoretical reason why a human could not be engineered to be maintain biological youth indefinitely, so certainly that is the *long term* future of aging therapies-- to design aging out of the genome, thereby eliminating it as medical issue like smallpox. But as a short term strategy, Aubrey's SENS approach is more promising because it appears much simpler.

---BrianW

#20 apocalypse

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 06:58 PM

Yes, and they do have to be tried... and those trials will take time... thats the point.

Well, again as I've said temporary measures are recommended, but it is a hypothesis to explain the data, from increases in regulatory complexity in larger and longer lived organisms as well as to the existing disparities in lifespan and the fundamental causes of decay and the delay of such in all biological systems. With regards to SENS it suggest certain undesirable measures that will take some time to implement can be avoided(wilt), and it hints at what may be the modifications amongst those suggested that may lead to the greater lifespan pay-offs.

I'm disappointed... all this and we've come back to the same old argument between life extension via longevity tweaks, and actual repair/reversal of aging via SENS.  CR will get you a couple of percent life extension, and not very consistently.  It might work for you, or you might die at a normal age like many of the people who have attempted CR.  Not a very proactive solution.

Metabolic tweaks if taken across the whole range(From a diet consisting solely of 15pounds of heavily fried bacon with meat roasted to a burn.... to a high vegetable low meat diet, including sufficient quantities of all vitamins and minerals, essential fats and cr-mimetics) can indeed lead to exponential differences in lifespan even within the very same species, especially with regards to organisms with genetic predispositions.

We can see that if we choose particular subsets of the population, an increase in both maximum and avg lifespan will result within that subset given metabolic tweaks. Say a group of individuals with phenylketonuria or hemochromatosis, of course those are extremes but similar defects occur to lesser degrees in the population at large. A predisposition to diabetes, or to cardiovascular disease, weight gain, high cholesterol, certain forms of cancers, etc. Metabolic tweaks done to deal with these will tend to increase both avg and max lifespan within these subsets of the population. The maximum lifespan achievable for a population as a whole, when under identical environmental circumstances, tends to reflect those individuals with the greater number of optimal gene combinations for longevity. But even these individuals can suffer, in their maximum potential lifespan, if exposed to high carcinogen loads or prolonged nutrititional deficiencies through their diets/lifestyles. When personal genomes become available(probably at the most next decade), the efficiency of personalized metabolic tweaks should increase.

As for the aforementioned power of alterations in the forms of selection and their connection with my other hypothesis regarding the causes for a hypothetical need for an aging program(that would interfere with internal selection mechanisms, and interfere with efficient renewal and rejuvenation of tissues, causing cell populations throughout the body to lose fitness with the passage of time.) can be seen in the species that have been domesticated or used for agriculture. An overly strong directed selection, say through exponentially improved survival/spread of any subset of a population will lead to reduced genetic variation and compromise the fitness of the entire group. I posit that as seen through artificial selection carried by man, the same can happen in the wild, if those subsets of the population that are fitter outcompete too much those less fit over the long term in a stable environment, variability in the gene pool will diminish.

I've heard that in the wild sometimes a female will choose the loser of a duel over the winner of one. What advantage could such a thing confer? Is she not choosing a mate that is less fit and thus a reduction in her progeny's fitness? IT makes no sense, that is unless we posit that choosing those less fit from time to time will lead to a greater lvl of genetic variation in the progeny than simply choosing the fittest always. It's only a further example of the powers of group selection, with the proliferation of sexual reproduction we saw that organisms, even if they sacrificed their abilities to individually replicate could as a whole outcompete clonal populations. Due to the genetic variability enhancing effects given by sex to the whole group at the expense of the individuals. Sexual reproducing species will tend to outcompete non-sexual reproducing species in the wild over the long term, as they're more able to adapt to change, thanks to greater lvls of variability over species that solely resort to clonal reproduction.

The idea that senescence becomes negligible at very old ages is a fallacy (http://www.sens.org/manu18.pdf).  It's just a statistical artifact that occurs at an age where most of the population is long dead, and unfortunately statistical artifacts aren't useful for developing tangible and effective medical treatments.

I believe it to be the truth. The tithonus/Struldbrug scenario is an impossibility. No machine can deteriorate indefinitely and continue to function indefinitely, the body's no exception. There must come a point when the lvl of deterioration is such that any further substantial deterioration will result in the organism rapidly lossing functions and eventually ending in failure/death.

#21 bgwowk

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 07:39 PM

No machine can deteriorate indefinitely and continue to function indefinitely, the body's no exception. There must come a point when the lvl of deterioration is such that any further substantial deterioration will result in the organism rapidly lossing functions and eventually ending in failure/death.

That's not the issue. The question is not whether deterioration can continue for infinite time. The question is whether deterioration continues right up until death at any age, or whether deterioration effectively stops at some age, making the remaining Gompertz mortality curve pure exponential.

It's only a further example of the powers of group selection, with the proliferation of sexual reproduction we saw that organisms, even if they sacrificed their abilities to individually replicate could as a whole outcompete clonal populations.

Apocalypse, is your claim that aging exists because individual mortality is good for evolution? If so, that's a well-known fallacy. Are you familiar with the antagonistic pleiotropy theory of aging, and the tight correlation between natural lifespan and predation in nature?

---BrianW

#22 apocalypse

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 08:14 PM

No machine can deteriorate indefinitely and continue to function indefinitely, the body's no exception. There must come a point when the lvl of deterioration is such that any further substantial deterioration will result in the organism rapidly lossing functions and eventually ending in failure/death.

That's not the issue. The question is not whether deterioration can continue for infinite time. The question is whether deterioration continues right up until death at any age, or whether deterioration effectively stops at some age, making the remaining Gompertz mortality curve pure exponential.

From what I've heard individuals with the longest lifespan tend to experience prolonged healthspans and compressed periods of morbidity. Such that given the complexity of the body there comes a point were any significant further deterioration will compromise bodily functions too much, resulting in either a quick death or short period of morbidity and short after death.

It's only a further example of the powers of group selection, with the proliferation of sexual reproduction we saw that organisms, even if they sacrificed their abilities to individually replicate could as a whole outcompete clonal populations.

Apocalypse, is your claim that aging exists because individual mortality is good for evolution? If so, that's a well-known fallacy. Are you familiar with the antagonistic pleiotropy theory of aging, and the tight correlation between natural lifespan and predation in nature?

---BrianW


YES, I'm aware of those. I still believe it isn't a fallacy, especially given the existence of organisms with suboptimal, for the individual, lifespan and stress resistance given their genetic constitution, as evidence by single gene mutations further increasing resistance and longevity. C-elegans, yeast, salmon and any especies which benefits from cr, cr-mimetics or single gene mutations can be considered to be experiencing suboptimal, for the individual, lifespan.

The reasons for a programmed mechanism of aging I've postulated are compatible with such correlations. There is a hypothetical possibility that the robust mechanism's necessary to achieve optimal probability of reaching reproductive age might grant slightly greater than optimal lifespan with regards to the species continued success. This combines, with the exponential magnification of the effects on the variability in the genepool, due to any small increase in stress resistance or healthspan mediated by enhanced replication(each descendant receives the small boost too and so on.) should cause the fitter subgroup of the population to disproportionately benefit from any such benefit, however small. This would cause a greater, however slightly, loss in the genetic diversity of the populations, skewing it slightly more towards a predominance of the genetic material carried by the fitter organisms. Like happens with artificial selection(see crops, dogs, etc.), if selection is skewed too much in favor of certain subgroups of the population and the descendants of such, be it by man or by fitness in a stable environment, genetic variation will decrease within the population and it'll be slightly worse off in times of change, than organisms that better limit the replication potential of the 'fitter' subgroup and the progeny of such during stable periods(Call it biological socialism wit regards to the presence of the 'richest/fittest').

#23 Mark Hamalainen

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 08:47 PM

Actually the cited reference states "either explanation may therefore be correct."


True in the context of those statistics. But the only evidence for, or reason to believe in, negligible senescence at very old age, is that graph. The other hypothesis, in which aging does not miraculously cease from occuring at some arbitrary age, is supported by logic and all other evidence.

#24 Mark Hamalainen

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 08:59 PM

Metabolic tweaks if taken across the whole range(From a diet consisting solely of 15pounds of heavily fried bacon with meat roasted to a burn.... to a high vegetable low meat diet, including sufficient quantities of all vitamins and minerals, essential fats and cr-mimetics) can indeed lead to exponential differences in lifespan even within the very same species, especially with regards to organisms with genetic predispositions.


The life extension you get from restoring sick/diseased/malnutritioned animal to a healthy state is typical in studies on longevity tweaks but doesn't hold water here. For example, a person who is deprived of vitamin C will die much sooner than a person who is given a normal dose of that vitamin, but it does not follow that giving the person 10X the normal dose of the vitamin will make it live 10X as long, or even any longer at all, in fact in some cases overdoses can be very toxic (iron for example).

#25 Mark Hamalainen

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 09:05 PM

The idea that senescence becomes negligible at very old ages is a fallacy (http://www.sens.org/manu18.pdf).  It's just a statistical artifact that occurs at an age where most of the population is long dead, and unfortunately statistical artifacts aren't useful for developing tangible and effective medical treatments.


I believe it to be the truth. The tithonus/Struldbrug scenario is an impossibility. No machine can deteriorate indefinitely and continue to function indefinitely, the body's no exception. There must come a point when the lvl of deterioration is such that any further substantial deterioration will result in the organism rapidly lossing functions and eventually ending in failure/death.


You believe it to be the truth that senescence becomes negligible at very old age, but you also believe no machine can deteriorate indefinitely? What?? So what you're sayings that when we get older, senescence slows down, almost stops, and then we die because senescence can't stop.

You're not making any sense to me.

#26 John Schloendorn

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 11:00 PM

Ahh sorry Osiris I skipped half of what you said :-)

#27 apocalypse

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Posted 04 April 2006 - 03:21 AM

You believe it to be the truth that senescence becomes negligible at very old age, but you also believe no machine can deteriorate indefinitely?  What??  So what you're sayings that when we get older, senescence slows down, almost stops, and then we die because senescence can't stop.

You're not making any sense to me.

What I"m saying is that at an advanced enough age, a being under constant deterioration will reach a point when any further acquisition of substantial dmg will significantly compromise its functions leading to a cascade/domino effect that will result in catastrophic failure. That is eventually it gets to the point where it is more like some sort of russian roulette[edit: spinning the cylinder again before each additional round.], if you get hit you're screwed but if not you've the same odds of making it through as you did when you started. Statistically most of the population of individuals subject to such won't make it as the many rounds go on, but those that do make it, have the same odds of getting hit at any point in time, no matter how far they go(their bodies are at the edge of the abyss, a light push is all that's required for them to fall in.).

The life extension you get from restoring sick/diseased/malnutritioned animal to a healthy state is typical in studies on longevity tweaks but doesn't hold water here.  For example, a person who is deprived of vitamin C will die much sooner than a person who is given a normal dose of that vitamin, but it does not follow that giving the person 10X the normal dose of the vitamin will make it live 10X as long, or even any longer at all, in fact in some cases overdoses can be very toxic (iron for example).


Obviously I'm not suggesting megadosing everything, just careful tweaking, and as a temporary measure while we get something better(say drug combinations that selectively boost endogenous maintenance/repair mechanisms without side-effects, effective cancer treatments, advanced tissue engineering, SENS elements, etc.), so as to achieve increased probability of attaining maximum potential lifespan. It does follow that any insufficiency will lead to suboptimal function and overdosing to certain lvls will also lead to suboptimal function. It also follows that innate individual differences in the rate of absorption and loss of certain nutrients, can affect the lifespan of a particular individual by causing deficiencies or overdoses of certain nutrients within a particular diet/lifestyle. Diets heavy in carcinogens will also tend to shorten lifespan. For a particular individual, say someone predisposed to diabetes, heart disease, certain cancers, a healthy lifestyle may substantially increase the probability they'll live substantially longer than they'd do otherwise. Even with very good genes, a lifestyle that increases exposure of the individual to high lvls of carcinogens or nutritional deficiencies may lead to exponentially shorter lifespan than otherwise would've been possible.

We've got to take into account the fact that our individual lifespans may be shortened, even by decades, if we take detrimental enough lifestyles/diets. The contrary also holds, by avoiding detrimental deficiencies/overdoses of nutrients, carcinogens, and detrimental lifestyles, we may experience a decades increase in healthspan and lifespan than would otherwise be.

As I've read about the oldest humans, I've seen how many of those that make it to their 90s or 100s are often healthier and more active than many individuals in their 70s or 80s. They didn't get to that age with such vigor by withering/decaying further than those individuals in their 70s/80s, they got to that age with such vigor because they were decaying at a slower rate than the others. Their healthspan was extended. To a certain degree lifestyle changes can compensate for many genetic deficiencies that may normally keep a particular individual from reaching such ages, and that would rapidly eat away an individual's healthspan.

Edited by apocalypse, 04 April 2006 - 04:05 AM.


#28 Mark Hamalainen

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Posted 04 April 2006 - 03:55 AM

That is eventually it gets to the point where it is more like some sort of russian roulette, if you get hit you're screwed but if not you've the same odds of making it through as you did when you started.


Since deterioration is continuous and accumulating, I don't see how you can justify the odds being the same. Since the chance of death due to the effects of aging at any moment increases with age, the proportion of the increase in that chance to the total chance would lower, making the increases seem small relative to the overall chance. But the odds of death are still increasing, and probably accelerating. So again, this is not evidence for negligible senescence at very old age, and knowing about this statistical artifact does not help us achieve actual negligible senescence in healthy adults.

Longevity tweaks are searches for silver bullets that do not exist. SENS is real and within our reach.

#29 Mark Hamalainen

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Posted 04 April 2006 - 03:57 AM

Ahh sorry Osiris I skipped half of what you said :-)


No problem, I hope its because you're so busy researching lyso-SENS that you only have time to skim the posts [thumb]

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#30 apocalypse

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Posted 04 April 2006 - 04:14 AM

Since deterioration is continuous and accumulating, I don't see how you can justify the odds being the same.  Since the chance of death due to the effects of aging at any moment increases with age, the proportion of the increase in that chance to the total chance would lower, making the increases seem small relative to the overall chance.  But the odds of death are still increasing, and probably accelerating.  So again, this is not evidence for negligible senescence at very old age, and knowing about this statistical artifact does not help us achieve actual negligible senescence in healthy adults.


It depends the argument I've heard is based on reliability theory, iirc. Organisms at such advanced ages, are said to've gotten to the point were pretty much the vast majority of redundant mechanisms have been exhausted. There are few remaining functional components which are all vital to the organism, and these are in their last legs, any one fails and there won't be a redundant functional one to make up for it, when such failure occurs the organism will quickly deteriorate as a result and experience either death or a short period of morbidity followed by death.

Edited by apocalypse, 04 April 2006 - 05:01 AM.





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