1503 replies to this topic

[sant2060]

Theoretical CFR (case fatality ratio) that we get by the numbers from China is 2-3%. Which in itself its fcked up. if big part of population gets it.

 

Bigger problem for me is that severe cases range is 15-20%. Whatever they are putting under "severe". Sounds like it needs hospitalisaton this way or another.

Also worrying is the number of people released from hospitals. Which is actually less than 2-3%

With this numbers, we can only hope for 2 things; a) this thing gets contained b) there is 10X more mild cases.

 

One of infected that appeared in USA...36 or something like that, healthy as you can be...started as mild case, some cough, blood panel mostly ok, lungs XRay great. All of the sudden, 5-6 days into the hospital, bam, pneumonia.

He was given experimental ebola drug under some kind of "compasion" rule.

Survived.

 

Which is great for him. Im just not sure how many people can get that drug, or hospital treatment...if this spreads.

 

[Mind]

Another day passes, and as far as I have scanned reports from various outlets, the mortality rate outside of China is still 0%. Has anyone else seen anything different?

[ymc]

Lancet has a special page for coronavirus. I think it is the most authoritative source.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

 

In the article entitled "Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China", Chinese doctors followed 99 patients. 11 died and 31 were released from the hospital. So it is safe to say that once you are bad enough to go to the hospital, then the death rate can be around 11%.

 

As of now, there are two deaths outside mainland China. The death rate is 2/195 = 1.02%.

 

My understanding is that it typically takes two weeks from onset for a patient to die, therefore, the numbers outside China can be lagging. I believe the true death rate is between 1% and 11% which in all accounts are higher than flu.

 

The problem of this coronavirus is that its rapid transmission can overwhelm healthcare systems. As you can see, the death rate in the Chinese province outside Hubei have much lower death rate than the Hubei epicenter. 

[abelard lindsay]

I think one aspect of this epidemic that people are underplaying is the viral myocarditis aspect of this disease.  I think the authorities are downplaying this because there are few symptoms before people drop dead in their tracks and face plant on concrete without even getting their hands out.  There are a slew of videos that have come out of China since the epidemic started of this kind of thing happening.  The recent patient who died in Hong Kong had a heart attack because of the disease.  

 

https://agbrief.com/...ts-first-death/

The man died on Tuesday morning after his condition deteriorated – he died of heart failure. 

 

 

https://www.thelance...0183-5/fulltext

 

Complications included acute respiratory distress syndrome (12 [29%]), RNAaemia (six [15%]), acute cardiac injury (five [12%]) and secondary infection (four [10%]). 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died.

 

 

Edited by abelard lindsay, 04 February 2020 - 04:13 PM.

[Mind]

Another episode of "The Stand" is playing out around the world. I have seen it so many times in my life.

 

Every time I think... quarantine, spraying disinfectants and other chemicals all over the world, living in a sterile bubble, are all so ineffective in our connected world.

 

Where are the fresh and more effective approaches?

 

I think the monitoring and quarantine infrastructure is too entrenched, like in many disciplines, and change is hard to come by.

 

One would think we would have better anti-viral medications by now. One would think that we would have methods of minimizing the "complications" due to viral infection.

 

Next year when the next West Nile Virus, Swine Flu, Bird Flu, Hanta virus, Coronavirus, SARS, etc... pops up, society will repeat the whole hysteria once again.

[Hip]

Where are the fresh and more effective approaches?

 

...

 

One would think we would have better anti-viral medications by now. One would think that we would have methods of minimizing the "complications" due to viral infection.

 

On this longevity forum, I have tried to make people aware of how common pathogens in circulation are linked to numerous everyday chronic diseases — diseases which greatly reduce both lifespan and healthspan. Almost every major disease you can think of is associated with an infectious pathogen of one sort or another, and it is the view of Professor Paul Ewald that we will not get to grips with chronic disease until we have eliminated these pathogens from our bodies, and eliminated them from common circulation (by means of vaccines, etc) so that we don't catch them.

 

Yet very little interest in shown in this pathogenic infection angle on longevity. I've written to one major name in longevity research to point out the terrible toll pathogens wreak on longevity, but they showed little interest or understanding.

 

You can explain about pathogens to people, but usually the penny does not drop. Very few people, it seems, can get it into their head that the accumulating number of pathogens they build up in their body as their life progresses may well be the cause of the chronic diseases they come down with as they get older. 

 

I think until the general public as well as medical research start to take the dire problem of pathogens more seriously, and invest billions if not trillions in trying to tackle them, we will continue to suffer the misery of chronic disease, reduced lifespan and healthspan. And of course the occasional viral pandemic.

 

What we need is NASA Apollo program-type funding to tackle this really terrible scourge on humanity — these disease-causing pathogens that infect and corrupt our bodies.

Edited by Hip, 04 February 2020 - 06:22 PM.

[ymc]

I too agree that pathogens can play a role in chronic diseases.

 

When Stanford's Michael Snyder used bioinformatics to monitor

the DNA, RNA and protein in his blood, his team discovered

a viral infection triggered pre-diabetes status in his body.

Fortunately, the pre-diabetes status is reversible due to being

discovered at the earliest time possible.

https://www.ncbi.nlm...les/PMC3341616/

[Mind]

Does anyone know if the death in Hong Kong was from someone from the mainland (China)? As was the case with the fatality in the Philippines

[adamh]

Wow, 11% mortality among those who went to the hospital. That is very scary plus the fact those who survived may have nasty lingering complications including cardiac trouble. I agree that even if the death rate is only 3% or so, which we are not yet sure of, that plus the complications along with up to 20% needing hospitalisation makes it a major threat. Throw in the ease of transmission and it could have the highest death and morbidity rate of any known infectious disease outbreak. 

 

If it gets to my city I will simply stock up on food and not leave the house. I do have face masks in case I have to make a run. Medical care will be non existent if it hits here like it is doing in china. Does it go away I wonder? If everyone who had it recovers or dies, is it gone or will we have to wear biosuits forever? 

[Marconius]

If it does turn it to a major pandemic not everyone can afford to just lock down in their homes and hope to ride it out in a self-imposed quarantine. And I have looked at one of the web shops I buy from, and they only have the second most powerful face mask when it comes to protection against pathogens. Alto I did get a hand-sanitizer that is apparently more effective at destroying them then the ones provided by my present work-place. However I do not think we are at the point of a potential new Black Death-pandemic (yet?).

 

But if you want to stock pile on food when it hits your city, I have to give you the advise to increase your stockpiles of food before that. In that way you can spread out the cost and it will looks less obvious that you are stockpiling. And more important if it does hit your city, you will not be the only one trying to stock up on food at the last moment. Do you really want to be stuck in a potentially panicked crowd trying to buy the supplies you need? 

Edited by Marconius, 06 February 2020 - 03:37 AM.

[Hebbeh]

https://www.taiwanne...en/news/3871594

 

On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker," showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.  The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.

 

 

https://www.dailysta...ng-247-21434630

 

Workers are reportedly working flat out and without break as they are constantly sent the bodies of victims – it is claimed they have been burning 100 bodies every day since January 28.  One insider, who is said to work at a funeral home in Wuhan, has reportedly revealed the long working hours to deal with the surge of coronavirus deaths.  Crematorium workers are reportedly working in makeshift protective suits and masks as they handle the bodies.  It comes after Chinese-state media issued a decree banning funerals and demanding near instant cremation for victims.  Wuhan is epicentre of the outbreak, being the first city in China to be placed under full quarantine.  Disturbing accounts and reports have been emerging from the city, leading to speculation that the death toll is being downplayed by the Communist Party.  One worker at the Caidan Funeral Home, in suburban Wuhan, has claimed employees are working “24/7” to deal with the bodies, reports Epoch Times.  The worker said staff are exhausted and are working without proper equipment.  Identified only as Mr Yun, he said: “90 percent of our employees are working 24/7 … we couldn’t go back home.”  Chillingly, he claimed: “All Wuhan cremation chambers are working 24 hours.”  He added: “We really need more manpower.”  Yun said staff can only sit on their chairs and nap whenever they get a chance.  He said: “We can’t stop because we can’t leave the bodies outside for a long time.  “For us who transfer the bodies, we don’t eat or drink for a long time in order to preserve the protective suit, because we need to take off the protective suit whenever we eat, drink, or go to the bathroom.  “The protective suit can’t be worn again after being used.”  His workplace is reportedly required to pick up bodies from Wuhan Tongji Hospital, Wuhan No. 13 Hospital, the newly built Huoshenshan Hospital, and other small hospitals.  They are also available to any residences that request their services.  Yun claimed he has spoken to other crematorium workers who are all in the same situation.  He alleged “every day, we need at least 100 body bags” – which is much higher than the official death toll which is only now nearing 500.

 

 

[abelard lindsay]

https://www.taiwanne...en/news/3871594

The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.

 

 

 

I know people are getting cured outside of China using AIDS drug cocktails.  However, seems there would be more deaths outside of China by now if the recovery rate was that low.

[Hebbeh]

I know people are getting cured outside of China using AIDS drug cocktails.  However, seems there would be more deaths outside of China by now if the recovery rate was that low.

 

Perhaps but if you read some of the stories coming out of China, the hospitals are so overwhelmed that more are being turned away than being treated which is believable since China has admitted to hastily throwing up hospitals with 10's of thousands of additional beds in attempt to deal with the numbers of sick and as such, many aren't being treated but simply quarantined.  The Chinese Government is notorious for concealing the truth.

[Dorian Grey]

• Tencent, China's second biggest company, has an 'Epidemic Situation Tracker'
• Screengrabs purport to show leaked figures on the conglomerate's website
• Lists death toll at a staggering 24,589 - more than 80 times the official figures 
• Meanwhile the infected is listed as over 154,000 - over 10 times official number

https://www.dailymai...oll-24-589.html

 

Left to right are: Confirmed Cases, Suspected Cases, Cured Cases and Deaths

 

Adjusted death rate around 15%?

 

We live in interesting times!  

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Edited by Dorian Grey, 06 February 2020 - 07:34 AM.

[Hip]

The number of Wuhan coronavirus cases in China is quadrupling every 7 days.

If you look at the graph of the number of reported cases in this live updated page (bottom right corner), you can see that the numbers increase by roughly a factor of 4 each week. 

There are presently nearly 30,000 reported cases in China.
 
So if the virus cannot be contained, and this exponential trend continues, in each successive week, the number of infected cases in China may pan out like this:
 
My Predicted Number of Cases of

Wuhan Coronavirus by Week In China

(Figures increase by fourfold each week)

 

Friday 07 Feb 2020 — 30K
Friday 14 Feb 2020 — 120K
Friday 21 Feb 2020 — 480K
Friday 28 Feb 2020 — 1.9M 
Friday 06 Mar 2020 — 7.7M
Friday 13 Mar 2020 — 31M 

Friday 20 Mar 2020 — 123M 
Friday 27 Mar 2020 — 492M 

​Friday 03 Apr 2020 — 2B 
 
So in other words, at around the beginning of April 2020, we might expect 2 billion Chinese citizens to have caught the Wuhan coronavirus. At the current death rate of 2%, that means there will be a predicted 20 million deaths in China by the beginning of April.

Edited by Hip, 06 February 2020 - 03:24 PM.

[xEva]

NYT: https://www.nytimes....irus-china.html

“We know its DNA,” said Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the W.H.O. “We know it can be transmitted from one person to another. We know those most at risk are older people and those with underlying health conditions.”

 

really? Anyone knows where are the exact statistics that I could look up? So far, I am aware of only 3 deaths where age was given: 2 deaths outside of China, 39 and 44, and today, the young Chinese doctor, who first reported the outbreak in social media died, age 34. These 3 people were in prime of their lives. This virus seems more like Spanish flu, no?

Edited by xEva, 06 February 2020 - 11:49 PM.

[Marconius]

Except the Spanish flu arose in the context of WOI. Meaning during its intial period a lot of young men where close together in trenches, bunkers or field hospitals making for easy spread of the pathogen. Not to mention that just because a virus is a greater mortality risk for people who are not young and healthy, it does not mean those who are young and healthy can not die from it. However it fully possible that the Chinese government puts pressure on the WHO to give out inaccurate information about this outbreak.

[Dorian Grey]

The panic mode China and the rest of the world have gone into over this bug totally defies logic if you believe the published stats are accurate.  

 

I've seen stats the flu has killed 10,000 this year in the USA.  I'm guessing China's flu deaths must be closer to 50K, yet they're quarantining millions of people in entire cities over 500 deaths from this bug?  Have the doctors & scientists in China, the WHO & CDC all truly succumbed to a collective hysteria?  

 

How would politicians actually handle a pandemic in the early stages if and when one arises?  I expect it would look much like what we're seeing today.  "Pay no attention to the moon-suits, there's no need to panic...  A few "confirmed" deaths, but we're implementing effective measures we're confident will contain this".  

[Hip]

The panic mode China and the rest of the world have gone into over this bug totally defies logic if you believe the published stats are accurate.  

 

I think the measures taken are entirely appropriate. Are you really suggesting that LESS should be done?

 

It comes down to the mathematical concept of pandemic exponential growth. With the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan coronavirus being around 2 or 3, if aggressive measures are not taken to contain the outbreak, it would without doubt spread to a major portion of the global population, and thus kill tens of millions worldwide. That's much more than the estimated 0.5 million people globally who are killed by the flu each year.

 

Even with all the emergency measures taken, it may not be possible to contain the Wuhan virus, and we may still eventually be hit with a pandemic.

[Dorian Grey]

No, I'm not suggesting less should be done, I'm suggesting the danger is being down-played and mortality obscured.  If this bug is truly not nearly as dangerous as flu, why all the fuss?  

 

The dead doctor coming back to life is interesting.  In China if a nurse or doctor walks off the job they may go to jail.  Not so in America, so it's imperative any danger to health care workers be obscured.  Reporting (or lack thereof) of occupationally acquired infection is actually very revealing.  Moon-suits or not, some of these nurses are going to catch this bug.  We'll see if this makes the news (or not!).  

 

I worked in healthcare for 35 years.  The early days of the AIDS/HIV issue spooked a lot of folks, me included.  I actually quit my hospital job and moved into outpatient work because of this.  It will be interesting to see if American nurses (many of them single moms with young children) will don their moon-suits and dive into caring for these patients if transmission to nursing staff in China is honestly reported.  

[Hip]

If this bug is truly not nearly as dangerous as flu, why all the fuss?  

 

But the Wuhan coronavirus is much more lethal than your average influenza virus. The Wuhan virus death rate is 2% (it kills 1 in 50). Whereas in the 2009 H1N1 swine flu global pandemic, the death rate was 0.02% (it kills 1 in 5000). So the Wuhan virus is 100 times more deadly than swine flu. 

Edited by Hip, 07 February 2020 - 11:33 PM.

[Dorian Grey]

It's my understanding they are claiming the 2% kill rate is for patients hospitalized with pneumonia.  Primarily elderly, and symptoms in younger patients are often so mild they don't even seek medical care.  Don't know what the kill rate is for flu in hospitalized patients with pneumonia, but probably higher than 0.02.   

[Hip]

It's my understanding they are claiming the 2% kill rate is for patients hospitalized with pneumonia.  Primarily elderly, and symptoms in younger patients are often so mild they don't even seek medical care.  Don't know what the kill rate is for flu in hospitalized patients with pneumonia, but probably higher than 0.02.

 
I believe the 2% mortality rate refers to the percentage of reported cases with proven Wuhan coronavirus infection who die. I am not sure if all the reported cases are actual hospitalized cases.
 
 
What I find interesting is that if you look on this viral pandemic map at the Chinese cities far flung from Wuhan, these have in the range of around 300 to 1000 infected people at present. But there are a lot fewer deaths in those far flung cities.

For example, Guangzhou in the south currently has 1075 infected cases on the map, but only 1 death. Well that's a death rate of much less than 2%. Possibly the infected people in these far flung cities have not had the virus long enough for death to have occurred (maybe it takes a while for the virus to kill). We will have to see if more deaths occur in these far flung cities over the next week or two. 

[Dorian Grey]

Uh oh!  New coronavirus infected 40 staff in single Wuhan hospital

 

https://www.yahoo.co...-211425653.html

 

"Forty health care workers were infected with the novel coronavirus by patients at a single Wuhan hospital in January, a new study has found, underscoring the risks to those at the frontlines of the growing epidemic.

One patient who was admitted to the surgical department was presumed to have infected 10 health care workers, according to the paper that was authored by doctors at the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University and published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) on Friday."

 

Would you walk into your job tomorrow if it meant close contact with this bug?  

Edited by Dorian Grey, 08 February 2020 - 07:44 AM.

[Dorian Grey]

Can anyone help me with updated info on the median age of those who are dying?  The only source I can find is a small number of patients from Jan 22 Here: 

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm...pubmed/31994742

 

"The median age of the deaths was 75 (range 48-89) years"

 

I've read the reason this is spreading so fast is that symptoms are often so mild in younger patients, they are not even seeking medical care.  The young are spreading it and the old are dying from it.  

 

They're still looking for an appropriate name for this epidemic.  I'd suggest BOOMER PLAGUE!  

[Kalliste]

Can anyone help me with updated info on the median age of those who are dying?  The only source I can find is a small number of patients from Jan 22 Here: 

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm...pubmed/31994742

 

"The median age of the deaths was 75 (range 48-89) years"

 

I've read the reason this is spreading so fast is that symptoms are often so mild in younger patients, they are not even seeking medical care.  The young are spreading it and the old are dying from it.  

 

They're still looking for an appropriate name for this epidemic.  I'd suggest BOOMER PLAGUE!  

 

Agreed, have not seen any info to dispute that. Would add it seems to hit people who suffer air pollution (maybe smoking too) more bad, which is interesting considering what we debate on this page about smoking, chelation of iron/uranium, antioxidation, IP6 etc.

 

On the other hand there is some confusion thrown in by the fact that China could be lying about the mortality.

 

I (36) have a stomach flu with diarreah since yesterday, and a mild cold right now, did meet some coughing Chinese patients last week and also a man who came home from Thailand last monday.

Each time I felt like throwing up I drank a small glass of colloidal silver (Ionosil) on recommendation of my gf and each time the urge to vomit quickly subsided though the diarreah continues.

 

Not going to go to the hospital because of the risk of other infections from staying 12 hours in some crowded Swedish emergency ward.

 

Chinese police welding shut apartment of virus sufferers.

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[BlueCloud]

 Personally I wonder what will happen in Africa, US and other parts of the world where the central gov cannot respond with such foce.

Africa is by far the most problematic area, due to their severe lack in medical infrastructures and means of controlling infection in travellers in airports. Sadly, the virus is more likely to do far more damage there than in any other part of the world. The only "advantage" of Africa, maybe,  is that the very high temperatures in some countries may slow down the survival of the virus ( if it is at all susceptible to high temperatures )

Edited by BlueCloud, 10 February 2020 - 06:16 PM.

[Dorian Grey]

Agreed, have not seen any info to dispute that. Would add it seems to hit people who suffer air pollution (maybe smoking too) more bad, which is interesting considering what we debate on this page about smoking, chelation of iron/uranium, antioxidation, IP6 etc.

 

On the other hand there is some confusion thrown in by the fact that China could be lying about the mortality.

 

I (36) have a stomach flu with diarreah since yesterday, and a mild cold right now, did meet some coughing Chinese patients last week and also a man who came home from Thailand last monday.

Each time I felt like throwing up I drank a small glass of colloidal silver (Ionosil) on recommendation of my gf and each time the urge to vomit quickly subsided though the diarreah continues.

 

Not going to go to the hospital because of the risk of other infections from staying 12 hours in some crowded Swedish emergency ward.

 

Chinese police welding shut apartment of virus sufferers.

 

The iron angle did get my Spidey Sense tingling.  Seniors typically develop substantial iron accumulations (men more-so than women) and all pathogens need access to free iron to reproduce.  Tobacco smoke particulate contains substantial amounts of iron, which remains in lung tissue even in those who quit.  China certainly has a lot of smokers, particularly the older generation, with a substantially higher percentage of men who smoke.  The 2/3 / 1/3 male/female high senior death ratios seen in n-2019CoV?  

 

Hope you've dodged a bullet with your health scare, but at 36, you'd probably survive the Boomer Plague.  This bug only hates old people!  

[adamh]

"On the other hand there is some confusion thrown in by the fact that China could be lying about the mortality."

 

Could be lying? China lies all the time, anything that affects their image is always lied about, no exceptions. Losing face is not acceptable. I laugh at those who take every stat seriously and come up with figures based on what we are told. Maybe the virulence is subsiding in china, maybe. But the numbers are grossly misstated.

 

When they find someone dead in the street they haul them to the crematorium, they do not test to see what they died of. What about the millions quarantined in major cities? How many of them have died? we have no idea. Many are sealed into their homes guaranteeing that they will die, of starvation if nothing else. None of that is counted.

 

What we need is mass manufacturing of anti virals that show some potential against CV. Several anti aids drugs have shown promise. Get that cranked out so when it starts spreading here we will have something on hand.

[Dorian Grey]

Death toll from killer coronavirus is 10 TIMES higher than average in China's Hubei province because thousands of patients with mild symptoms are not seeking help, scientists claim

 

https://www.dailymai...i-province.html

 

"Experts have repeatedly said potentially thousands of patients may not go to their doctor for treatment because they may have such minor symptoms – such as a cough and fever – that they do not need to seek help"

 

----------------------

 

Young ones spread it with minimal symptoms while Boomers more likely to fall off the twig.  Perhaps instead of Boomer Plague we should call it Millennial's Revenge.