1504 replies to this topic

[adamh]

The doctor whose name was Li and who reported on the outbreak died at age of 34 from CV. Not so old and he was a doctor so knew how to treat it and could probably get medication. Very likely millions have it by now. Don't be so smug thinking being under 60 makes you immune. And what of all the young children? They along with elderly are highly at risk. Could we lose much of the next generation? 

[Dorian Grey]

Not trying to be smug...  I'm in San Diego, & we had a 747 full of evacuees land here last week with 4 symptomatic passengers now in two San Diego hospitals.  I'm trying to learn as much as I can about this bug as I'm a 64 year old male boomer, which puts me in the "most likely to die" group.  My gal works in a San Diego hospital (not one with n2019CoV), so I may well be exposed through her in the near future.  

 

I find it fascinating with over 1000 confirmed deaths we haven't heard of a single child among the casualties and there are reports of young folks who apparently aren't even bothering to go to the doctor with this bug.  Why is the incidence & mortality ratio so much higher in older males?  Enquiring minds want to know!  

[Dorian Grey]

Southhampton University has created a map that tracked the 60K who booked it out of Wuhan before it was put in lock-down

 

https://www.dailymai...oronavirus.html

 

A map based on data from flight and cell phone data tracking by Southampton University researchers shows how 60,000 out of some 60,000 people who left Wuhan after the coronavirus outbreak began but before the city was locked down have crisscrossed the globe

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[Hip]

Paper by the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis suggests that out of the detected cases in Hubei, there is a 18% fatality rate.

[Mind]

As of today WHO reports 393 cases outside of China but it is hard for me to find the number of deaths outside of China. Some sources say 1 - in the Phillipines. Some sources say someone died in Thailand or Hong Kong as well. Anyone know for sure?

 

If 2 people have died, then the mortality rate outside of China is 0.5%, or if you don't count the death in the Phillipines (someone who traveled from Wuhan), then - at best - the mortality rate outside of China is 0.25%

[Kalliste]

There's a video of huge swarms of crows descending on Wuhan...

 

Another video showed them sticking numerous Child bodies in one body bag, then the video was deleted.

 

 

 

The incubation time is now 24 Days according to one study

 

 

To clarify:

I stated earlier I had bought some supplements, I don't expect those to cure me but maybe it would be enough to stop the cytokine storm. 

 

There is rumor that this is a truly aerosolized virus: meaning not just coughing and sneezing but the reason China is spraying so madly is because this might latch onto ppm matter and go in the wind. 

 

San Diego;

 

FEB. 10, 2020 5:37 PM
A botched test result allowed an evacuee infected with the coronavirus to leave a San Diego hospital Sunday after initially being told by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that they were in the clear.

The situation is detailed in a brief statement released by UC San Diego Health Monday evening, which says that all four quarantine patients admitted to its isolation units after arriving from China last week were discharged back to quarantine quarters at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar after the CDC shared with caregivers that their coronavirus tests came back negative.

“This morning, CDC officials advised San Diego (County) Public Health that further testing revealed that one of the four patients tested positive for (novel coronavirus),” the UCSD statement said. “The confirmed positive patient was returned to UC San Diego Health for observation and isolation until cleared by the CDC for release.”

The university said that it also has received another patient with possible coronavirus symptoms, bringing the total hospitalized out of Miramar quarantine to eight.

The two patients currently in isolation units at UCSD facilities are said to be “doing well” with “minimal symptoms.”

In an emailed statement Monday night, the university said that the infected evacuee did not meander out of the hospital to make their way back to Miramar: “The patient left UC San Diego Health the same way they arrived, with all precautions taken. The patient was wearing a mask per CDC instruction. The federal marshals transported the patient while wearing protection.”

It was not clear exactly how long the patient was present at the base before officials realized that their negative test result was actually positive. The university’s statement indicates that they were discharged from the hospital Sunday and returned on Monday, but specific times of day were not specified.

 

 

There is community transmission in hot and rainy Singapore

 

 

But the situation is still evolving. Every day brings new developments, and we have to respond promptly and dynamically. So far, most of our cases have either been imported from China, or can be traced to imported cases. When we discover them, we have isolated the patients, done contact tracing and quarantined close contacts. This has contained the spread and helped stamp out several local clusters. But in the last few days, we have seen some cases which cannot be traced to the source of infection. These worried us, because it showed that the virus is probably already circulating in our own population. This is why we raised the Dorscon (Disease Outbreak Response System Condition) to orange yesterday, and are stepping up measures. We are reducing mingling in schools. We are tightening up access to our hospitals. We are taking extra precautions at large public events. I have already postponed my Chinese New Year Istana Garden Party for grassroots leaders, which was to be held tomorrow. We have raised Dorscon to orange before. You may not remember, but this was in 2009, for the H1N1 swine flu. So there is no need to panic. We are not locking down the city or confining everybody to stay at home. We have ample supplies, so there is no need to stock up with instant noodles, tinned food, or toilet paper, as some people did yesterday.

 

 

If this spreads easily in non asian genes and the current transmission theory is correct then I have to assume it is being passed around in every country on the globe as we speak. 

 

Sorry for all the "viral rumors"  

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[Dorian Grey]

Impressive: 

 

 

Good Night All.  

[adamh]

Paper by the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis suggests that out of the detected cases in Hubei, there is a 18% fatality rate.

 

That is the highest estimated mortality rate yet. If that holds true then civilization is going to not end but change mightily. It seems that it affects children as well. 18% of 6 billion is over 1 billion. 

 

Those crows, they are eating the bodies in the street? That is another possible route of transmission, the birds will probably be infectious even if they do not become ill from it. They would at least have traces of it on them. 

 

The ripple effects of this are hard to estimate but seem huge. Not just those who die but also those who are out of work for a long time and we don't yet know what lingering effects it may leave behind. How will we get food if farmers, truckers, and merchants are sick or dying? How will doctors treat us if they are sick and hospitals can take no more? How will people get their medication? 

 

On a lighter note, GM announced it was reopening its plants in china that it had shut recently. Do you think any workers will show up? Some people just did not get the message.

[Hip]

Good find on the IV vitamin C clinical trial, @Kalliste. So we should soon know whether IV ascorbate has benefits for Wuhan virus infection.

 

 

 

 

That is the highest estimated mortality rate yet. If that holds true then civilization is going to not end but change mightily. It seems that it affects children as well. 18% of 6 billion is over 1 billion. 

 

I am not entirely convinced by that 18% figure. I am not sure how they calculated it. But certainly the death rate seems higher in the Wuhan region than it does in other regions of China. That could just be because Wuhan, being the epicenter of the outbreak, has had the virus in its midst for longer, therefore in those with the virus, more deaths have occurred. 

 

[Kalliste]

Guidelines for the use of non-pharmaceutical measures to delay and mitigate the impact of 2019-nCoV

https://www.ecdc.eur...-measures_0.pdf

 

Personal protective equipment (PPE) needs in healthcare settings for the care of patients with suspected or confirmed novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

https://www.ecdc.eur...re-settings.pdf

 

Interim guidance for environmental cleaning in non-healthcare facilities exposed to 2019-nCoV

https://www.ecdc.eur...-facilities.pdf

[Kalliste]

Older article, not sure if relevant to nCov but might be since nCov lowers immune function.
 

Sweating in a sauna at least twice a week could slash the risk of potentially deadly infections like pneumonia, research shows. Men who enjoyed sauna sessions on a regular basis were almost 30 per cent less likely to develop the life-threatening illness.

And four times a week or more cut the risk even further, by almost 40 per cent.

Saunas also reduced the chances of falling ill with asthma and other chest complaints.

The findings, published in the European Journal of Epidemiology, are the latest in a series of studies showing saunas can bolster the health of both sexes.

Another recent study found they could lower blood pressure and reduce the risk of heart disease. And last year scientists found regular hot sessions in a sauna bath could even lower the chances of dementia.

Saunas have been used for thousands of years in Finland as a form of pleasure and relaxation.

Anecdotal evidence suggests they ease sore joints, headaches and clear up skin conditions like psoriasis and eczema.

With their increasing popularity around the world, scientists have started to investigate the evidence for claimed health benefits.

Researchers from Bristol University and the University of Eastern Finland studied a population of 1,935 men aged from 42 to 61 and tracked their health over a quarter of a century.

Sauna bathing has a good safety profile and is well-tolerated by most peopleBristol University report

Researchers recorded how often each man used a sauna and then documented how many were admitted to hospital over the next 25 years for severe asthma attacks, pneumonia caused by chest infections and complications caused by chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder, or COPD.

 

This is a serious lung ailment often caused by smoking.

The results revealed 379 of the men needed hospital treatment for respiratory illnesses during the study period.

But those who had a sauna two to three times a week were 27 per cent less likely to fall ill than men who rarely or never used them.

Sauna fans enjoying four or more sessions a week were 41 per cent less likely to develop pneumonia.

Although it was a men-only study, the benefits are likely to apply to women too.

Pneumonia is the sixth biggest cause of death in the UK, claiming an estimated 29,000 lives a year.

 

Jeremy Clarkson, a long term smoker, nearly died from pneumonia Credit: Andy Rain

Scientists are not sure why saunas have such a dramatic impact on respiratory illnesses but the theory is that the heat generated by them eases airway obstruction.

Saunas produce a mostly dry heat which can reach temperatures of 100 degrees Celsius.

In a report on the findings researchers said: "These findings add to the accumulating knowledge on the beneficial effects of sauna baths on both acute and chronic health conditions.

"Sauna bathing is an enjoyable and relaxing activity.

"It has a good safety profile and is well-tolerated by most people."

However, doctors advise some patients to avoid them in case the stress of high temperatures puts undue strain on their bodies. These include people who have recently had a heart attack, or who may be prone to low blood pressure.

 

 

 

[abelard lindsay]

Why are people lying dead in the middle of the street?  You'd think they'd go home if they had pneumonia and could barely breath instead of being out wandering about.  Unfortunately, this lends some credence to the rumors going around about a beta coronavirus that suppresses the immune system and has no symptoms except sudden death.

Edited by abelard lindsay, 14 February 2020 - 09:25 AM.

[Kalliste]

Why are people lying dead in the middle of the street?  You'd think they'd go home if they had pneumonia and could barely breath instead of being out wandering about.  Unfortunately, this lends some credence to the rumors going around about a beta coronavirus that suppresses the immune system and has no symptoms except sudden death.

 

Sudden viral myocarditis, those ppl come down as if a snipers bullet hit them.

 

Something must be going on. This is the same China that did not bat an eyelid when a quake killed every pre-schooler in a province the size of California. They are responding in a hysterical way.

 

Lets hope it was all some kind of over-reaction and this thing calms down.

 

One thing that eeks me out is there is still no word if any non-chinese has it, I keep hearing about Americans and Canadians having it, but are they just Chinese people with a pass-port?

[Mind]

Another person outside of China has died, in Japan. An 80 year-old woman. Died due to complications from pneumonia, then was (apparently) tested and found to have Corvid-19. Not sure if this woman was Chinese, but I presume her to be Japanese.

 

So now there are three deaths outside of China. Two Chinese (in Hong Kong and the Phillipines) and one Japanese.

 

As of yesterday though, the CDC has only confirmed one death outside of China and 447 cases - for a mortality rate of 0.22%. A far cry from the 2%, 3%, 10%, 15%, 18% (take your pick) mortality rate inside China.

 

One thing I am wondering about is the specificity and accuracy of the tests. What is the false positive/negative rate of the tests?

[BlueCloud]

Another person outside of China has died, in Japan. An 80 year-old woman. Died due to complications from pneumonia, then was (apparently) tested and found to have Corvid-19. Not sure if this woman was Chinese, but I presume her to be Japanese.

 

So now there are three deaths outside of China. Two Chinese (in Hong Kong and the Phillipines) and one Japanese.

 

 

Another one died in France today, an 80yo Chinese tourist.

[adamh]

It would be nice if only chinese were affected by this or only asians. Nice if you aren't asian anyway. However this seems to me to be very unlikely. How many serious diseases have we seen so far that only attacks a narrow group and spares all or most other groups? I can't think of any, sars, aids, ebola, the common flu, none of those are race specific. No, this is grasping at straws much like the early hopeful thoughts that the death rate was no more than from flu. 

 

Has anyone seen the smuggled videos out of china? Horror scenes of giant flocks of black birds, crows they say, flying into the cities to eat the corpses. Bodies lying in the street each with birds on it. No wonder china is reacting with such extreme measures, too bad they weren't more active back in early december or perhaps november when it started. They might have been able to contain it at that time. 

 

 As for the hopeful figures out of cdc showing only 0.2% deaths outside of china, keep in mind that china has had at least 2.5 or more months of incubation. If first signs were seen in dec then it probably escaped in nov or before and it took a month before it was noticed and not just an odd increase in pneumonia and sudden death. So probably more than 3 months in china and it has come to this point. The rest of the world has had only maybe a month or so of the outbreak and it does not seem to have spread as far though that too might be wishful thinking. What will we see in the next 2 or 3 months?

 

If this was developed as a bioweapon it is too terrrible to use. What good is a weapon if it not only kills your enemy but comes back and kills you too? People used to say atomic bombs were too terrible to use but at least they are specific in destruction. Granted the residual radiation had a bad effect on the world but minimal. China has developed the ultimate unusable weapon. Best would be if it was never released but lucky for us they released it over there so we have time to hopefully prepare

 

Lets hope factories are cranking out the anti viral meds that have shown some benefit for the disease. But I read that china is the source of most of our medicines and they are off limits. Do we have sufficient manufacturing facilities in the western world? Are there crash programs in effect to produce these drugs? 

[Kalliste]

My heart sank when I read this. Let us hope this is incorrect.

 

As for the powerful reaction of the Chinese state someone said it might be a consequence of the state bureucrazy way of China, local officials competing with each other to look good for the great leader.

Might not be directly correlated to the outbreaks true danger.

This is the same country that had a cultural revolution.

 

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[resveratrol_guy]

Posting a link because it's relevant to the China health management angle...

 

https://www.longecit...virus/?p=885735

 

[Mind]

My heart sank when I read this. Let us hope this is incorrect.

 

As for the powerful reaction of the Chinese state someone said it might be a consequence of the state bureucrazy way of China, local officials competing with each other to look good for the great leader.

Might not be directly correlated to the outbreaks true danger.

This is the same country that had a cultural revolution.

 

The danger of closed command-and-control communist dictatorships like China should obvious to everyone now.

Edited by Mind, 16 February 2020 - 06:22 PM.

[Mind]

The latest situation report from the WHO indicates 683 international cases and 3 deaths (most recently the Chinese man who was visiting France, as was mention earlier in this thread), for a mortality rate outside of China at 0.4%

 

I wouldn't consider the following link as an authoritative source, but it is an interesting speculation as to why Chinese men might be suffering more from this virus that other people. 

 

Interesting the Twitter banned this site for spreading false information...which could end up being true. The perils of censorship on social media.

[ymc]

https://www.biorxiv....1.full.pdf html

 

Novel coronavirus has 10-20 times affinity to the ACE2 receptor than SARS. This explains its high transmissibility.

[Mind]

The latest WHO situation report indicates 794 international cases and 3 deaths for a mortality rate of less than 0.4%.

 

The mortality rate inside China is essentially unknowable, considering the state control of all media, medical facilities, and data.

[adamh]

China recently claimed some 70,000 cases and around 1700 deaths giving a 2.4% death rate. Since we know they constantly lie, the true rate is probably several times higher or maybe 4 to 8% or more. The figures from who showing a low rate are preliminary. We can hope that it will remain very low outside china but realistically, those patients had the best of care and when, not if, the medical system breaks down then we will see the numbers for those who get no care.

 

Also the virus has not had much time to act outside of china. Death may occur from 3 to 10 weeks after exposure in which case we have to wait for more mature figures. There is still the faint hope that non asians have more resistance to it. Since doctors and nurses seem to be catching it despite masks and isolation procedures, it must be very easy to catch and medical people are not going to want to work with those patients. 

 

Is oxygen a life saver? With pneumonia, breathing is the problem and suffocation often causes death. Maybe buy a tank of O2 and mask? What about the sudden heart attacks, what will help with that? Any chance of obtaining useful anti virals? We may be forced to be our own doctor and nurse.

 

[Dorian Grey]

Some fresh data: https://www.dailymai...nese-study.html

 

Chinese health officials carried out the biggest ever study on the never-before-seen strain of the virus, using data from 72,000 cases. The CCDC team behind the landmark SARS-CoV-2 paper, published their findings in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology.

 

Results showed the overall case-fatality ratio – the percentage of patients who die – was just 2.3 per cent.  Results showed the SARS-CoV-2 virus posed the greatest threat to older patients and those with underlying conditions, such as cancer and heart disease. 

 

The virus kills up to 15 percent of patients over the age of 80, scientists have revealed.  Men are more likely to die (2.8 per cent) than women (1.7 per cent).  The likelihood of death was just eight per cent of patients aged between 70 and 79, and 3.6 per cent for those in their sixties

 

Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention researchers also found 80.9 per cent of infections are mild. Less than five per cent are critical.

 

A separate group of virologists studying the coronavirus have also claimed it is up to 20 times more infectious than its deadlier sister SARS.

[xEva]

a bit more statistics

 

the new study found that the death rate from COVID-19 varied by location. In Hubei Province, where the outbreak began, the death rate was 2.9%, compared with just 0.4% in other provinces — a 7-fold difference.

The study also showed that older adults have been hit hardest by COVID-19. Among those ages 80 and older, the death rate was 14.8%, compared with 8.0% for those ages 70 to 79; 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for those ages 50 to 59; 0.4% for those ages 40 to 49, and 0.2% for those ages 10 to 39. No deaths have been reported among children from birth to age 9.

However, some experts have estimated that the number of COVID-19 cases could be much higher than what has been officially tracked and reported, according to the BBC. If that's the case, then the death rate could be lower than what's reported in this study.

 

https://www.livescie...avirus-faq.html

 

that's interesting about children. Some viruses are known for similar difference in response. Hep B is worse in children than adults, while hep C is worse in adults (meaning, hep C can resolve on its own without treatment in children, while with hep B the younger you were when you got it the less chance there is you'll beat it). Though of course these 2 hep viruses  are very different from  COVID-19 and  cause chronic rather than acute disease.

 

but talking about the adults, I wonder if there is a genetic predisposition in otherwise healthy adults who die -? I guess it'll be a while before we know.

Edited by xEva, 19 February 2020 - 07:24 AM.

[adamh]

 Does anyone actually believe any data from china, particularly about corona? If so you might be interested in a bridge for sale. They have lied and denied repeatedly from the beginning. All data out of china is suspect, from economic figures to health, stated plans and intentions and so on. Not just suspect but almost certainly false. This is even more so when its a matter of national pride or to cover up wrong doing. All aparatchics know they must cover up mistakes and polish results whether it conforms to reality or not. Their jobs depend on it and sometimes their lives as well. There are many reports of people being disappeared who spoke out and gave info contrary to official reports.

 

"If that's the case, then the death rate could be lower than what's reported in this study."

 

I wish that was true because I'm in one of the bad age groups and could use some good news. If they admit a 2.3% death rate then you can bet your last dollar that the rate is not below that.

 

"Bodies lying in the halls of a chinese hospital, they can't keep up with them not even to properly dispose of all the bodies

 

https://nypost.com/2...china-hospital/

 

 "No deaths have been reported among children from birth to age 9."

 

No deaths among children? No one thinks that sounds extremely odd if not blatantly false? I saw a video, it showed workers putting 3 small children into a body bag, 3 into one bag meant for an adult. They looked to be 6 or under, had face masks and were clothed. The crematoriums are working around the clock and a backlog of bodies to burn. Here is a link to it but I think they are scrubbing this info off the net

 

https://discussgloba...wuhan-hospital/

 

 

[Mind]

 

 

Does anyone actually believe any data from china, particularly about corona? If so you might be interested in a bridge for sale. They have lied and denied repeatedly from the beginning. All data out of china is suspect, from economic figures to health, stated plans and intentions and so on. Not just suspect but almost certainly false

 

I have to agree. The story inside China keeps changing. The statistics about corona keep changing in weird ways. Citizens, doctors, and scientists within China give insights into the quarantine and spread of the disease and then are promptly arrested (or worse?).

 

In any case, WHO reports 924 cases outside of China with 3 deaths, for a 0.3% death rate.

 

I read about 2 news deaths in Iran, but they must not have been verified yet. It also got me to wondering if Iran had the appropriate test. Is the WHO so efficient and effective that every country in the world now has a test specific to this version of the corona virus. That would be pretty quick work!

[ymc]

According to wiki, two more deaths from Diamond Princess. Now we have 10/1148=0.87% death rate for cases outside mainland China.

[Mind]

WHO confirms 1200 cases outside China and 8 deaths for a 0.6% death rate.

 

I am still worried/depressed about the coming world-wide quarantine, for something (at this point in time) is essentially just the "flu" with similar age groups/sub-populations succumbing to the disease. As I mentioned earlier, the world-wide hysteria and quarantine will likely cause more pain, suffering, death, and destruction than the virus.

 

It is unfortunate that the disease developed in China. Because there is no data coming out of China that can be believed, it fuels more hysteria.

[Hip]

WHO confirms 1200 cases outside China and 8 deaths for a 0.6% death rate.

 

I make that a 0.67% death rate (100 x 80 / 1200 = 0.67%).

 

Actually a lower death rate can be found inside China as well: looking at the figures on this map, in major Chinese cities other than Wuhan, I calculated that the death rate is 0.58%, which is close to the WHO figure for the 0.67% death rate in other countries. 

 

The same map shows the death rate in Wuhan is 3.4%. Thus the death rate is substantially higher in Wuhan, compared to other Chinese cities, and compared to other countries. 

 

Thus there may be something about the Wuhan environment which makes this new coronavirus more virulent and more lethal.

 

It's interesting that Wuhan was designated by the Chinese government as a city hosting major heavy industry. Now given that China's cities are terribly polluted in general, you might expect that a heavy industry city like Wuhan will be even more polluted than your average city. Thus over the years, the Wuhan populace may have build up in their bodies a toxic load of heavy metals and other poisons, and perhaps it is these toxins which are making Wuhan residents more susceptible to this new coronavirus.

Edited by Hip, 21 February 2020 - 07:00 PM.