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Coronavirus information with context

coronavirus sars bird flu swine flu west nile virus

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#121 Mind

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Posted 19 February 2020 - 11:31 PM

 

 

Does anyone actually believe any data from china, particularly about corona? If so you might be interested in a bridge for sale. They have lied and denied repeatedly from the beginning. All data out of china is suspect, from economic figures to health, stated plans and intentions and so on. Not just suspect but almost certainly false

 

I have to agree. The story inside China keeps changing. The statistics about corona keep changing in weird ways. Citizens, doctors, and scientists within China give insights into the quarantine and spread of the disease and then are promptly arrested (or worse?).

 

In any case, WHO reports 924 cases outside of China with 3 deaths, for a 0.3% death rate.

 

I read about 2 news deaths in Iran, but they must not have been verified yet. It also got me to wondering if Iran had the appropriate test. Is the WHO so efficient and effective that every country in the world now has a test specific to this version of the corona virus. That would be pretty quick work!


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#122 ymc

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Posted 20 February 2020 - 02:52 AM

According to wiki, two more deaths from Diamond Princess. Now we have 10/1148=0.87% death rate for cases outside mainland China.



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#123 Hebbeh

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Posted 20 February 2020 - 02:54 AM

https://www.dailysta...-wuhan-21529067

 

 

China has reportedly deployed 40 industrial incinerators to the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak Wuhan.  Chinese media reports that the furnaces have been shipped to the city amid ongoing fears the death toll is being covered up.  NTD reports that the cabins are for the disposal of animal carcasses, while China Ship news reports the incinerators are for medical waste.  Sources quoted in Chinese media raise questions over whether or not the incinerators are for animals, or will be used to dispose of human remains.  The mobile incinerators can reportedly destroy up to five tons of waste every single day – and can burn its load in as little as two seconds.  Reportedly the cabin is the size of a 20-foot standard container and has a volume of about 30 cubic meters.  It reportedly has the ability to crush solid waste, then incinerate it, and then purify the smoke.  Large trucks were reportedly spotted transporting the cabins into the disease ravaged city of Wuhan.  Professor Ming Ju reportedly said he believes the cabins are “mobile incinerators” for bodies.  And meanwhile, Professor Qu Zan said the virus could not survive the 850 degree heat created by the furnace.  Wuhan locals reportedly have questions the need for such cabins as there is not a widespread infection of animals with the virus.  Questions have been raised over whether or not the Communist Party is withholding information about the outbreak in Wuhan.  Disturbing reports have continued to emerge about the city, with claims medics are totally overwhelmed by the sheer number of infections.  Pictures have emerged showing deserted streets, and videos of early in the outbreak show hospitals completely heaving with people.  And the Wuhan hospital director Liu Zhiming has reportedly died of the infection, with around 1,700 doctors diagnosed with Covid-19. 

 

 



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#124 Kalliste

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Posted 20 February 2020 - 06:42 AM

 Does anyone actually believe any data from china, particularly about corona? If so you might be interested in a bridge for sale. They have lied and denied repeatedly from the beginning. All data out of china is suspect, from economic figures to health, stated plans and intentions and so on. Not just suspect but almost certainly false. This is even more so when its a matter of national pride or to cover up wrong doing. All aparatchics know they must cover up mistakes and polish results whether it conforms to reality or not. Their jobs depend on it and sometimes their lives as well. There are many reports of people being disappeared who spoke out and gave info contrary to official reports.

 

"If that's the case, then the death rate could be lower than what's reported in this study."

 

I wish that was true because I'm in one of the bad age groups and could use some good news. If they admit a 2.3% death rate then you can bet your last dollar that the rate is not below that.

 

"Bodies lying in the halls of a chinese hospital, they can't keep up with them not even to properly dispose of all the bodies

 

https://nypost.com/2...china-hospital/

 

 "No deaths have been reported among children from birth to age 9."

 

No deaths among children? No one thinks that sounds extremely odd if not blatantly false? I saw a video, it showed workers putting 3 small children into a body bag, 3 into one bag meant for an adult. They looked to be 6 or under, had face masks and were clothed. The crematoriums are working around the clock and a backlog of bodies to burn. Here is a link to it but I think they are scrubbing this info off the net

 

https://discussgloba...wuhan-hospital/

Keep in mind China is HUUUUGE. 1100 million people. Those body-bag kids were supposedly murdered by the mother in a family dispute. 



#125 Hebbeh

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Posted 20 February 2020 - 01:24 PM

Keep in mind China is HUUUUGE. 1100 million people. Those body-bag kids were supposedly murdered by the mother in a family dispute. 

 

China has a strictly inforced 2 child policy so the chances of a mother even having 3 kids to murder would be slim to none... sounds like another cover up lie coming out of China.


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#126 Mind

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 06:17 PM

WHO confirms 1200 cases outside China and 8 deaths for a 0.6% death rate.

 

I am still worried/depressed about the coming world-wide quarantine, for something (at this point in time) is essentially just the "flu" with similar age groups/sub-populations succumbing to the disease. As I mentioned earlier, the world-wide hysteria and quarantine will likely cause more pain, suffering, death, and destruction than the virus.

 

It is unfortunate that the disease developed in China. Because there is no data coming out of China that can be believed, it fuels more hysteria.


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#127 Hip

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 06:51 PM

 

I make that a 0.67% death rate (100 x 80 / 1200 = 0.67%).

 

Actually a lower death rate can be found inside China as well: looking at the figures on this map, in major Chinese cities other than Wuhan, I calculated that the death rate is 0.58%, which is close to the WHO figure for the 0.67% death rate in other countries. 

 

The same map shows the death rate in Wuhan is 3.4%. Thus the death rate is substantially higher in Wuhan, compared to other Chinese cities, and compared to other countries. 

 

Thus there may be something about the Wuhan environment which makes this new coronavirus more virulent and more lethal.

 

It's interesting that Wuhan was designated by the Chinese government as a city hosting major heavy industry. Now given that China's cities are terribly polluted in general, you might expect that a heavy industry city like Wuhan will be even more polluted than your average city. Thus over the years, the Wuhan populace may have build up in their bodies a toxic load of heavy metals and other poisons, and perhaps it is these toxins which are making Wuhan residents more susceptible to this new coronavirus.


Edited by Hip, 21 February 2020 - 07:00 PM.

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#128 adamh

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 09:23 PM

Thus there may be something about the Wuhan environment which makes this new coronavirus more virulent and more lethal.

 

One factor for sure is that since wuhan seems to be the epicenter of the outbreak, the virus has had more time to work. This also suggests that the true rate is higher that we were hoping. If they admit 3.4% then the true rate is going to be much higher perhaps 10% or more

 

Likewise with the numbers outside china. Those are more likely to be true or at least not as likely to be deliberately falsified. Since corona has not had as much time to do its thing, we will see the numbers rise and the percentage of death rise as well. The mortality rate will lag behind the true numbers for a variety of reasons. Right now, since it spreads so fast and takes a few weeks at least to kill, there will be many more new cases than month+ old cases pushing down the apparent mortality rate.

 

People ask why is china reacting so extremely some say "hysterically" to the outbreak? They did not go to such lengths when it was sars or other deadly diseases. Consider that they have had more experience with corona than anyplace else since it started there. They see first hand what it does and they are very afraid, therefore extreme measures even if they risk a revolt and crash the economy. 

 

The bringing in of 40 large industrial incinerators tells us more than the carefully managed figures they release. Crematoriums can't keep up but bodies can't be allowed to lie in the street, videos of crows eating them have been circulated. They are in a desperate situation as the rest of the world will probably be soon as well.

 

If they were forced to admit the outbreak of serious disease in dec '19, odds are that it was raging for months before that, probably as far back as sept. Early deaths were attributed to normal disease and when it was finally seen as something new and deadly, the first reaction was to cover it up. By late dec they had to take extreme measures and could no longer conceal it. Other countries now are where china was probably in october with a few cases and a few deaths. 

 

Hysteria will do harm but quarantines are needed. But since its not politically correct to bar all visitors to a country unless the ruler is a dictator, it will spread and spread. What we are hearing about in china will happen everywhere unless some major factor prevents it. Its no longer just those who visited china, the virus has escaped and can't be contained only perhaps slowed down.

 

The economic fallout will be severe. China is going down the tubes at the moment and no one wants to go there or do business there. What will the post corona world look like? I plan to make my will and to get medical treatment while its still available

 


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#129 Hip

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 10:28 PM

If they admit 3.4% then the true rate is going to be much higher perhaps 10% or more.
 
Likewise with the numbers outside china. Those are more likely to be true or at least not as likely to be deliberately falsified. Since corona has not had as much time to do its thing, we will see the numbers rise and the percentage of death rise as well. The mortality rate will lag behind the true numbers for a variety of reasons. Right now, since it spreads so fast and takes a few weeks at least to kill, there will be many more new cases than month+ old cases pushing down the apparent mortality rate.[/size]
 
People ask why is china reacting so extremely some say "hysterically" to the outbreak? They did not go to such lengths when it was sars or other deadly diseases. Consider that they have had more experience with corona than anyplace else since it started there. They see first hand what it does and they are very afraid, therefore extreme measures even if they risk a revolt and crash the economy. 
 
The bringing in of 40 large industrial incinerators tells us more than the carefully managed figures they release. 

 
 
Which reliable source has said that the figures from China are carefully managed? Where is this idea that China is manipulating the figures coming from?

 

The WHO has praised China for being open and transparent with this outbreak, and for sharing their data with the rest of the world. Sure, in the 2003 SARS coronavirus outbreak China initially hid this, but they have learnt since then.

 

The fact that the death rate in Chinese cities other than Wuhan closely matches the death rate found in other countries only goes to show that China is providing reliable figures. 

 

The only unreliable and dubious players in this outbreak are the Western conspiracy theory merchants, who as always have got a few screws loose.

 

 


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#130 xEva

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 01:02 AM

re incinerators, they are mainly needed to dispose of used gowns, masks, gloves, bedding, rags, towels, etc -- things used by both patients and med personnel.

 

though I have no doubt it will be a scary pandemic. I only wonder when it will become an issue where I live (east coast US at the moment). you recon next fall? Sooner than that? And what about the olympics?

 

 


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#131 Mind

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 03:01 PM

Quarantine failed to stop the spread of the disease in China, but it has led to a lot of misery https://www.reuters....SKBN20F0UQ?il=0


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#132 Hip

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 03:21 PM

Quarantine failed to stop the spread of the disease in China

 

Who said quarantine failed to stop the spread of the disease in China?

 

Quarantine and the other aggressive measures employed by the Chinese government have done well so far. It's still touch and go whether this virus can be contained, but without those aggressive measures it would definitely spread to much of the world's population.

 

Even at the lower death rate of 0.67%, if this virus were to spread to say a quarter of the world's population (which is the number of people that the 2009 H1N1 swine flu spread to), that would be 2 billion people infected with the Wuhan coronavirus, and if 0.67% of those are expected to die, we are talking about 13 millions deaths worldwide.

 

That's a lot more deaths than H1N1 swine flu caused, which was "only" around half a million.

 

A lot of general public don't seem to appreciate the severe death toll the Wuhan virus may cause if it is not contained.


Edited by Hip, 22 February 2020 - 03:23 PM.


#133 Dorian Grey

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 04:22 PM

This guy is giving great daily updates: 

 

https://www.youtube....i48RRQTD4Jhxu8w

 

In this one here: 

 

he points out the current CDC testing protocol in the USA is to test ONLY those who've recently traveled to China, or have been in contact with someone KNOWN to have the corona virus.  The limited testing is currently only occurring in 4 cities.  

 

My God, they're not actively looking for the disease because they are afraid of what they might find.  This is going to result in transmission to a lot of healthcare workers who won't even know what they are dealing with till it's too late.  

 


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#134 Hebbeh

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 05:15 PM

https://nypost.com/2...ked-from-a-lab/

 

At an emergency meeting in Beijing held last Friday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke about the need to contain the coronavirus and set up a system to prevent similar epidemics in the future  A national system to control biosecurity risks must be put in place “to protect the people’s health,” Xi said, because lab safety is a “national security” issue.  Xi didn’t actually admit that the coronavirus now devastating large swathes of China had escaped from one of the country’s bioresearch labs. But the very next day, evidence emerged suggesting that this is exactly what happened, as the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology released a new directive entitled: “Instructions on strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus.”  Read that again. It sure sounds like China has a problem keeping dangerous pathogens in test tubes where they belong, doesn’t it? And just how many “microbiology labs” are there in China that handle “advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus”?  It turns out that in all of China there is only one. And this one is located in the Chinese city of Wuhan that just happens to be . . . the epicenter of the epidemic.  That’s right. China’s only Level 4 microbiology lab that is equipped to handle deadly coronaviruses, called the National Biosafety Laboratory, is part of the Wuhan Institute of Virology.  What’s more, the People’s Liberation Army’s top expert in biological warfare, a Maj. Gen. Chen Wei, was dispatched to Wuhan at the end of January to help with the effort to contain the outbreak.... And then there is this little-known fact: Some Chinese researchers are in the habit of selling their laboratory animals to street vendors after they have finished experimenting on them.  Instead of properly disposing of infected animals by cremation, as the law requires, they sell them on the side to make a little extra cash. Or, in some cases, a lot of extra cash. One Beijing researcher, now in jail, made a million dollars selling his monkeys and rats on the live animal market, where they eventually wound up in someone’s stomach..... China has unleashed a plague on its own people. It’s too early to say how many in China and other countries will ultimately die for the failures of their country’s state-run microbiology labs, but the human cost will be high.  But not to worry. Xi has assured us that he is controlling biosecurity risks “to protect the people’s health.” PLA bioweapons experts are in charge......

 

 



#135 adamh

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 05:38 PM

For those who chose to believe the communist chinese government, who trust their figures and don't think they lie to us, here are some articles written by those who have knowledge

 

https://www.5newsonl...e6-36dc6ead7e00

 

"Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton is claiming that China “continues to lie” about the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in the country and that it won’t allow experts from the CDC and WHO to “observe and assist.”

 

https://newrightnetw...ronavirus.html/

 

"The coronavirus rages on in China and is quickly spreading throughout the world. The Chinese government would have us believe that they have things under control. Additionally, much of the current medical data that the CDC and WHO use to formulate a plan to combat the coronavirus comes solely from the Chinese government. The real question that many throughout the medical and scientific community are asking is: should we believe their numbers? History says no."

 

https://noqreport.co...s-hits-the-u-s/

 

"China’s government is proud and loathes signs of weakness. They are also in a country that relies more on exports and travel than just about any nation in the world. Add in the fact that they have been secretive and have demonstrated a willingness to lie about internal affairs. This is a combination for disaster when it comes to potential large-scale epidemics like the coronavirus."

 

https://www.zerohedg...bout-everything

 

"In what may come as a shocking surprise to exactly nobody, the next great discovery as more and more layers of the global ponzi onion are exposed, is that China was, in fact, lying about everything. Yes, we know, stunning."


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#136 Hip

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 06:10 PM

For those who chose to believe the communist chinese government, who trust their figures and don't think they lie to us, here are some articles written by those who have knowledge

 

Do you have any articles from major reliable news sources? 


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#137 adamh

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 07:32 PM

Do you have any articles from major reliable news sources? 

 

Since you pick and choose who you consider reliable, how did you decide china was reliable about internal affairs? I gave several sources, who and cdc get their figures from china, so it all goes back to them since there are no sources of official info besides chinese government.

 

I fully understand the need for reassurance and what china puts out is intended to reassure. They want the world to think they have it under control and the danger is passing. They want to look competent and on top of things. Besides their long history of lying to their own people as well as to the world at large, there is a lot of pride at stake since they don't want to look criminally incompetent in handling this virus. Thus they have a huge incentive to lie. Those who openly reported that things were much worse have suddenly vanished.

 

What evidence do we have to the contrary? Besides the first hand accounts we also have videos of a situation in chaos, people welded into their homes and buildings, videos of bodies lying in the streets, huge flocks of vultures flying into the cities eating bodies, etc. 

 

Ordering 40 very large incinerators does not sound suspicious? If it was for an ordinary and ongoing situation why order them now? Why are the crematoria working 24/7 according to many reports? There are reports of high sulfer smoke emmissions, sulfer is found in the body bags.

 

Besides that, the figures from the rest of china as well as other parts of the world are very preliminary. If there are constantly new cases then the number of dead will not be indicative of the true rate simply because it does not kill instantly rather it takes a few weeks or perhaps a couple months or more before they recover or die. The first few who got it and passed it on to hundreds of others will be among the first to die while the newer cases have shown symptoms but have not had time enough to reach end stage

 

I too would like to believe its not much worse than the flu and the death rate is low but evidence indicates it is worse. How much worse we will find out soon enough


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#138 Hip

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 09:54 PM

Since you pick and choose who you consider reliable, how did you decide china was reliable about internal affairs?

 

Because the WHO praised China for being open and forthcoming with the information about this outbreak, and the WHO is a reliable source. The WHO have said nothing about China covering up or manipulating data, and they would be the first to say so if China did. 

 

So unless you can provide evidence that China are covering up info, then it is only Internet hearsay and speculation which says that they are. 

 

 

 


They want the world to think they have it under control and the danger is passing. They want to look competent and on top of things

 

You are stating this as if it were a fact. But it's just your speculation and opinion, and possible the opinion or speculation of others too.

 

It's important to observe the difference between mere opinion and established fact. 

 

To give an opinion is fine, but it's best to preface statements with phases like "I think that ..." or "In my opinion ..." to make it clear that your statement is speculation, not fact.  

 

 

 

 

What evidence do we have to the contrary?

 

Right, so in your way of thinking, if we have no evidence, you consider that a good opportunity to make up your own imaginative story?

 

 

 


Ordering 40 very large incinerators does not sound suspicious?

 

Not in the slightest if you have a lot of contaminated stuff to burn. As was pointed out above (are you reading this thread?).


Edited by Hip, 22 February 2020 - 09:54 PM.

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#139 Mind

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 10:57 PM

Might as well get ready for a lot of unsuccessful quarantine actions in the U.S. as well. It is happening now in Japan, South Korea, Iran, and Italy. Might as well prepare for people freaking out over the "flu", shut down of economic activity, shortages of food, medical supplies, supplements, etc...

 

I know, you are asking....what else can be done?

 

How about NOT shutting everything down in a quixotic attempt to slow the spread and focus on treatment for vulnerable populations (like the elderly or other immune-compromised individuals).

 

Hysteria prevents use of stop-gap medical facilities and the virus isn't even spreading in the U.S. yet.


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#140 Dorian Grey

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Posted Yesterday, 12:03 AM

Might as well get ready for a lot of unsuccessful quarantine actions in the U.S. as well. It is happening now in Japan, South Korea, Iran, and Italy. Might as well prepare for people freaking out over the "flu", shut down of economic activity, shortages of food, medical supplies, supplements, etc...

 

I know, you are asking....what else can be done?

 

How about NOT shutting everything down in a quixotic attempt to slow the spread and focus on treatment for vulnerable populations (like the elderly or other immune-compromised individuals).

 

Hysteria prevents use of stop-gap medical facilities and the virus isn't even spreading in the U.S. yet.

 

The Diamond Princess evacuees are pretty high risk for contagion.  Don't know if the Fairview/Costa Mesa facility is up to speed with biohazard supply and disposal and isolation environment rooms.  

 

Wouldn't want to be a nurse (or even housekeeper) there and go home to my kids every night unless proper biohazard protocols were being used.  That's the biggest problem with this bug.  Too many potential super-spreaders among the contacts.  The moon-suit protocols are very complex.  Not something you can learn with a quick half day inservice.  


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#141 Hip

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Posted Yesterday, 02:05 AM

How about NOT shutting everything down in a quixotic attempt to slow the spread and focus on treatment for vulnerable populations (like the elderly or other immune-compromised individuals).

 

I guess the Wuhan coronavirus will only cause a mere 10 or 20 million deaths if it is not contained, and as every obedient capitalist knows, profits are more important than human lives. So yeah, let's forget about trying to save these millions, and focus instead on ensuring the economy remains unaffected.


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#142 BlueCloud

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Posted Yesterday, 08:36 AM

I guess the Wuhan coronavirus will only cause a mere 10 or 20 million deaths if it is not contained, and as every obedient capitalist knows, profits are more important than human lives. So yeah, let's forget about trying to save these millions, and focus instead on ensuring the economy remains unaffected.

That’s not how i interpreted his post, i think he wasn’t talking about China. In situations like this, it can only get better if you obtain the cooperation of the population. Hysteria and panic (especially in western countries where the emphasis is on individualism) always leads to the opposite behavior from populations.

 

At this point, does it matter if China is lying about the numbers ? I’m sure they are trying to do the best they can, because it is in their interest, and because they know the world is watching them.

Everybody else around the world agrees that this has to be taken very seriously, at least as seriously as the previous similar epidemics. And that’s what matters. This is not your average flu, but it is not the end of the human race either. Be prepared, brace for impact, but also live your life as normally as possible. A life lived in fear isn’t a life worth living. 


Edited by BlueCloud, Yesterday, 08:42 AM.

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#143 ymc

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Posted Yesterday, 01:10 PM

Might as well get ready for a lot of unsuccessful quarantine actions in the U.S. as well. It is happening now in Japan, South Korea, Iran, and Italy. Might as well prepare for people freaking out over the "flu", shut down of economic activity, shortages of food, medical supplies, supplements, etc...

 

I know, you are asking....what else can be done?

 

How about NOT shutting everything down in a quixotic attempt to slow the spread and focus on treatment for vulnerable populations (like the elderly or other immune-compromised individuals).

 

Hysteria prevents use of stop-gap medical facilities and the virus isn't even spreading in the U.S. yet.

 

 

 I think putting masks on everyone and teaching people the proper way to wash hands will slow down the spread significantly.

Also, quarantine everyone who are in close contact with coronavirus patients.

Finally, test everyone with flu-like symptoms for the coronavirus.

I believe if the three measures mentioned above can be implemented properly, coronavirus can be contained with a cost of lower economic activities.

 

By the way, death rate outside mainland China as of now is 24/2027 = 1.184%.


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#144 Mind

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Posted Yesterday, 03:23 PM

I guess the Wuhan coronavirus will only cause a mere 10 or 20 million deaths if it is not contained, and as every obedient capitalist knows, profits are more important than human lives. So yeah, let's forget about trying to save these millions, and focus instead on ensuring the economy remains unaffected.

 

I didn't intend to come off as callous or indifferent.

 

I am weighing a likely outcome.

 

1. The virus is not contained and it will keep spreading. No evidence to the contrary so far.

2. Because of quarantine actions, economic supply chains will collapse, resulting in shortages of critical medical and health supplies.

3. Because of hysteria and the lack of critical supplies, hundreds of millions will die, instead of 10 or 20 million, and the damage to society will last for years.

 

What I am saying is that we should focus our efforts and energy on reducing the deaths among vulnerable populations (reducing the "10 to 20 million deaths, by a significant percentage, maybe an order of magnitude), instead of just shutting down the world and making everyone scared/irrational.

 

Back to earlier in the thread.

 

1.The corona family of viruses have been around a long time - identified 60 years ago.

2. The vast majority of people who are vulnerable to this viral illness are the same populations who are vulnerable to flu-like viruses in general.

3. Most people suffer very mild symptoms, including in the case of the SARS outbreak.

 

Like I mentioned earlier in the thread, I am amazed the all we have to available to counter viral outbreaks are archaic methods of quarantine, wear masks, wash your hands all day long, etc... Even vaccination (fairly successful in the 20th century) is old, kind-of low tech and reactionary (vaccines come after the outbreak). More funding needs to go toward anti-viral medications or methods counter viral effects within the body or enhancing the bodies natural ability to quell viral attacks.


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#145 adamh

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Posted Yesterday, 05:56 PM

1. The virus is not contained and it will keep spreading. No evidence to the contrary so far.

2. Because of quarantine actions, economic supply chains will collapse, resulting in shortages of critical medical and health supplies.

3. Because of hysteria and the lack of critical supplies, hundreds of millions will die, instead of 10 or 20 million, and the damage to society will last for years.

 

Agreed

 

"1.The corona family of viruses have been around a long time - identified 60 years ago"

 

Agreed, however this virus has been modified, reportedly with a portion of the aids virus.

 

Most people suffer very mild symptoms, including in the case of the SARS outbreak

 

This is not the same as sars or others as has been already established so we don't really know that. It is infectious for a longer period without symptoms and a high percentage die at least those without proper treatment.

 

As far as not shutting everything down, what other way can we stop it? Doctors, including high ranking doctors in china have come down with it along with many other health care professionals. They all had masks, some had bio suits, they still got it and many died including doctors. Testing someone for it means being possibly exposed to it.

 

If you go to work and one person in there has it without knowing, they can infect the whole office building, factory or whatnot. Who wants to go to a concert knowing the virus is raging? Going shopping is taking a risk, meeting anyone is a risk.

 

There is no way to stop panic, people will panic and we have to plan for it. If police can no longer function, there will be looting and violence. If medical care is no longer available we will have bodies lying in the streets and flocks of vultures coming in as well much like in china. 

 

We will have starvation, its already happening in china, will happen elsewhere too. Stock up on non perishables, perhaps beans, rice, other things. Will water and electricity keep working? Hopefully yes. Don't expect dentists to be open or any medical services. To think the horrors in china as evidenced by videos smuggled out will not happen in our countries is wishful thinking. Hope for the best but be prepared for the worst.


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#146 Blu

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Posted Yesterday, 06:06 PM

The Chronic Post-SARS Syndrome is a well documented entity similar to CFS/FM. Other sequelae to SARS include pulmunary fibrosis, osteoporosis, osteonecrosis. There are hypothesis that these severe effects are immuno-mediated.

How much did SARS really spread? How many autoimmune disorders could be a consequence of the 2003 epidemics? Why China seems so schizoid, severely affecting its own economy when, as we are told again and again, the common flu is sooo much worse than SARS-CoV-2?

Maybe the mortality rate is not the real problem here.

 

 


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#147 ymc

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Posted Today, 02:49 AM

 

 

Like I mentioned earlier in the thread, I am amazed the all we have to available to counter viral outbreaks are archaic methods of quarantine, wear masks, wash your hands all day long, etc... Even vaccination (fairly successful in the 20th century) is old, kind-of low tech and reactionary (vaccines come after the outbreak). More funding needs to go toward anti-viral medications or methods counter viral effects within the body or enhancing the bodies natural ability to quell viral attacks.

 

Well, quarantine + mask + hand washing was the approach that worked well for SARS and MERS. 

 

Due to the higher transmissibility of coronavirus, they probably won't work as well but should at least slow it down.

 

As to more high tech approach like antiviral drug or vaccine, it is not about money, it is about time. By the time you manage to have something work, it can be one or two years later.

 

I too am against the drastic action of Chinese government to quarantine the entire cities. I think the limited approach that most government is adopting should contain the outbreak to some extent can buy time for the more high tech approach.

 

The worst case scenario for coronavirus is that it will be a pandemic in a year or two. Then hopefully by the time, there are some antiviral drugs and/or vaccines that work that can turn back the tide and make it a disease that is comparable to flu.

 

As to more high tech approach like antiviral drug or vaccine, it is not about money, it is about time. By the time you manage to have something work 



#148 Hip

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Posted Today, 03:26 AM

we are told again and again, the common flu is sooo much worse than SARS-CoV-2?

 

Whoever told you that is wrong.

 

Death rate for this season's flu is about 0.05%, while the death rate is about 0.7% for the Wuhan coronavirus outside of China, and 2% inside China. Ref: 1

 

You don't have to be a brilliant mathematician to work out that 0.7% is a lot larger than 0.05%.

 



#149 Hip

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Posted Today, 03:46 AM

What I am saying is that we should focus our efforts and energy on reducing the deaths among vulnerable populations (reducing the "10 to 20 million deaths, by a significant percentage, maybe an order of magnitude), instead of just shutting down the world and making everyone scared/irrational.

 

Fear often comes from not understanding what you are dealing with. If the populace are scarred, it's perhaps because they don't have a sufficient grasp of science to understand viral epidemics. Unfortunately not much can be done about that, except of course learning a bit about virology; but most people I expect are too lazy.

 

The strategy employed by governments in dealing with this virus is a rational one: the idea is to slow down the spread (or if possible, eradicate the virus entirely). This buys time to develop a vaccine, and several companies are rushing to produce a vaccine. 

 

Antivirals will not be possible to create, as it takes decades to develop new antivirals. Existing antiviral drugs are being tried, to see if they have any effect against the Wuhan coronavirus, but it's not likely they will. Unlike antibiotics, antiviral are very virus-specific, and so they will work for one virus, but not another. And viruses are not actually alive, which makes it hard to kill them.

 

Slowing down the epidemic also means that hospitals will not be so overloaded with cases. People with this virus often need supplemental oxygen in hospital, because the virus ravages the lungs. If everyone were to be infected all at once, then the hospitals would not be able to cope. But by slowing down the spread, you stagger the infections in the populace, which means hospitals will not get as overloaded, and will thus be in a better position to offer care.


Edited by Hip, Today, 03:52 AM.


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#150 xEva

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Posted Today, 03:52 AM

the cat is out of the bag.

past week thousands of tourists flooded Italy for Venice carnival and fashion week in Milan. This weekend most flew back home. NY, London, Paris, Berlin, Moscow, LA..

 


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