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Coronavirus information with context

coronavirus sars bird flu swine flu west nile virus covid19 covid-19

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#931 bladedmind

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Posted 05 January 2021 - 09:26 PM

Sorry, I will be a little unfriendly.  I’m mildly annoyed that mikeinnaples did a hit and run on “this topic” (I think the lab leak hypothesis, but no reference, if not that then ignore remainder of my post).   The posts here included abundant links to serious argument- and evidence-based discussions on that hypothesis.  Does he know the issue so well that he can dismiss all those sources as not worthy of even brief public counterargument?   Or does he just assume that it’s a hypothesis that only smelly Walmart customers like me would consider likely?  


Edited by bladedmind, 05 January 2021 - 09:28 PM.

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#932 albedo

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Posted 09 January 2021 - 08:01 AM

Thank you Hotbit. You maybe right to question the usage of data in the article. But now also the leading Sweden authority is questioning (reportedly) their strategy which I appreciated as a sign of good practice in prioritizing evidence. To me it looks like the Sweden case starts to be no longer a case. Only time will tell...

https://www.theguard...f-herd-immunity

 

(08.01.2021)

Sweden passes law allowing coronavirus lockdowns, expects to use it soon

https://www.washingt...s-lockdown-law/

I am sad: really I have thought Sweden could piloting successfully a different approach but it does not seem so. Yes, time till tell but so far it looks again it is no longer a case!

 



#933 pamojja

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Posted 09 January 2021 - 05:18 PM

I am sad: really I have thought Sweden could piloting successfully a different approach but it does not seem so. Yes, time till tell but so far it looks again it is no longer a case!



Not at all!

Looking at population adjusted mortality numbers, Sweden - formely under the 10 worse hit countries - improved that much, even a too late lock-down can't negate anymore. Listed by decreasing toatal deaths per million (leaving out 4 countries below a million in population):

			Population		Last 7-average		Per million
1	Belgium		11,614813		58		5,0
2	Slovenia		2,079081		30		14,4
3	Bosnia+H.		3,270553		29		8,9
4	Italy		60,417242		470		7,8
5	N. Macedonia		2,083331		12		5,8
6	Peru		33,199585		60		1,8
7	Bulgaria		6,922108		68		9,8
8	Spain		46,763848		132		2,8
9	Czechia		10,718921		148		13,8
10	UK		68,063992		815		12,0
11	US		331,970957		1065		3,2
12	France		65,345756		324		5,0
13	Hungary		9,648041		111		11,5
14	Mexico		129,60619		747		5,8
15	Croatia		4,092531		49		12,0
16	Armenia		2,966014		11		3,7
17	Argentina		45,40216		137		3,0
18	Panama		4,348396		43		9,9
19	Brazil		213,312504		872		4,1
20	Switzerland		8,686163		75		8,6
21	Chile		19,197897		45		2,3
22	Sweden		10,130672		15		1,5
	

No other worst covid hit countries ever improved by that much. Nor could a possible future lockdown in Sweden change that now.

On the contrary, especially most countries surounding mine (Austria), with lockdowns did worsen so much now superseeding Sweden.

Edited by pamojja, 09 January 2021 - 05:27 PM.

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#934 albedo

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Posted 09 January 2021 - 05:33 PM

Hopefully you are right @pamojja. What are the numbers for Austria?

 


Edited by albedo, 09 January 2021 - 05:37 PM.


#935 pamojja

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Posted 09 January 2021 - 05:44 PM

Hopefully you are right @pamojja. What are the numbers for Austria?


I wished nothing more than being wrong. Because if right soon Austria and Germany too will overtake Sweden, despite now the 3rd probably extented lockdowns.

		Population		Last 7-average		Per million
Austria		9,032037		55		6,1
Germany		83,917849		840		10,0


#936 pamojja

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Posted 09 January 2021 - 06:01 PM

Listed by decreasing toatal deaths per million (leaving out 4 countries below a million in population):


Above a mistake sneaked in, by using the total deaths per million instead of the last seven day average for the US. Corrected:

			Population		Last 7-average		Per million
11	US		331,970957		3079		9,3



#937 Mind

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Posted 10 January 2021 - 01:40 PM

Not at all!

Looking at population adjusted mortality numbers, Sweden - formely under the 10 worse hit countries - improved that much, even a too late lock-down can't negate anymore. Listed by decreasing toatal deaths per million (leaving out 4 countries below a million in population):
 

			Population		Last 7-average		Per million
1	Belgium		11,614813		58		5,0
2	Slovenia		2,079081		30		14,4
3	Bosnia+H.		3,270553		29		8,9
4	Italy		60,417242		470		7,8
5	N. Macedonia		2,083331		12		5,8
6	Peru		33,199585		60		1,8
7	Bulgaria		6,922108		68		9,8
8	Spain		46,763848		132		2,8
9	Czechia		10,718921		148		13,8
10	UK		68,063992		815		12,0
11	US		331,970957		1065		3,2
12	France		65,345756		324		5,0
13	Hungary		9,648041		111		11,5
14	Mexico		129,60619		747		5,8
15	Croatia		4,092531		49		12,0
16	Armenia		2,966014		11		3,7
17	Argentina		45,40216		137		3,0
18	Panama		4,348396		43		9,9
19	Brazil		213,312504		872		4,1
20	Switzerland		8,686163		75		8,6
21	Chile		19,197897		45		2,3
22	Sweden		10,130672		15		1,5
	
No other worst covid hit countries ever improved by that much. Nor could a possible future lockdown in Sweden change that now.

On the contrary, especially most countries surounding mine (Austria), with lockdowns did worsen so much now superseeding Sweden.

 

 

As far a deaths per million, Sweden did much worse than other Nordic countries, but looks quite good in comparison to most of Europe.

 

As far as lockdowns and masks go, Slovakia started implementing harsher measures back in October and it really didn't do much to flatten the curve, as compared to most other countries in the region.

 

Same in the U.S., it is hard to find many statistically significant differences between states with harsh lockdown laws (like California), and hardly any restrictions (like Florida).


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#938 pamojja

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Posted 10 January 2021 - 01:56 PM

.. it is hard to find many statistically significant differences between states with harsh lockdown laws (like California), and hardly any restrictions (like Florida).


See this video update by Ivor Cummins from December 4th for more details:

https://www.youtube....h?v=p_vAQyVlXzU

#939 Florin

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Posted 10 January 2021 - 10:21 PM

As far a deaths per million, Sweden did much worse than other Nordic countries, but looks quite good in comparison to most of Europe.


That implies that most of Europe would do much worse if there were no restrictions.
 

Same in the U.S., it is hard to find many statistically significant differences between states with harsh lockdown laws (like California), and hardly any restrictions (like Florida).

 
Some papers suggest that lockdowns work, but others suggest that other interventions work better. California's first lockdown may have worked, and California (per capita) has done a lot better than Florida and a lot of other States with milder restrictions. Lockdowns seem to work, but they're not necessary, especially given the fact that stuff like reusable respirators exist.


Edited by Florin, 10 January 2021 - 10:51 PM.

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#940 albedo

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Posted 15 January 2021 - 11:47 AM

Interesting study. Note that very large countries requiring much more data fine-graining (e.g. China, Canada, US) could not be included:

Brauner JM, Mindermann S, Sharma M, et al. Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19. Science. Published online December 15, 2020:eabd9338.

https://science.scie...science.abd9338


 



#941 albedo

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Posted 17 January 2021 - 10:05 AM

Important regarding the discussion of natural herd immunity:

 

"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread rapidly in Manaus, the capital of
Amazonas state in northern Brazil. The attack rate there is an estimate of the final size of the largely
unmitigated epidemic that occurred in Manaus. We use a convenience sample of blood donors to show that by
June 2020, 1 month after the epidemic peak in Manaus, 44%of the population had detectable immunoglobulin
G (IgG) antibodies. Correcting for cases without a detectable antibody response and for antibody waning,
we estimate a 66% attack rate in June, rising to 76% in October. This is higher than in São Paulo, in
southeastern Brazil, where the estimated attack rate in October was 29%. These results confirm that when
poorly controlled, COVID-19 can infect a large proportion of the population, causing high mortality."

 

https://science.scie...nt/371/6526/288

 

https://www.the-scie...ars-cov-2-68272


Edited by albedo, 17 January 2021 - 10:09 AM.

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#942 Hebbeh

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Posted 19 January 2021 - 07:44 PM

https://www.scienced...10119114456.htm

Study finds COVID-19 attack on brain, not lungs, triggers severe disease in mice

Georgia State University biology researchers have found that infecting the nasal passages of mice with the virus that causes COVID-19 led to a rapid, escalating attack on the brain that triggered severe illness, even after the lungs were successfully clearing themselves of the virus.

Assistant professor Mukesh Kumar, the study's lead researcher, said the findings have implications for understanding the wide range in symptoms and severity of illness among humans who are infected by SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

"Our thinking that it's more of a respiratory disease is not necessarily true," Kumar said. "Once it infects the brain it can affect anything because the brain is controlling your lungs, the heart, everything. The brain is a very sensitive organ. It's the central processor for everything."

The study, published by the journal Viruses, assessed virus levels in multiple organs of the infected mice. A control group of mice received a dose of sterile saline solution in their nasal passages.

Kumar said that early in the pandemic, studies involving mice focused on the animals' lungs and did not assess whether the virus had invaded the brain. Kumars' team found that virus levels in the lungs of infected mice peaked three days after infection, then began to decline. However, very high levels of infectious virus were found in the brains of all the affected mice on the fifth and sixth days, which is when symptoms of severe disease became obvious, including labored breathing, disorientation and weakness.

The study found virus levels in the brain were about 1,000 times higher than in other parts of the body.

Kumar said the findings could help explain why some COVID-19 patients seem to be on the road to recovery, with improved lung function, only to rapidly relapse and die. His research and other studies suggest the severity of illness and the types of symptoms that different people experience could depend not only on how much virus a person was exposed to, but how it entered their body.

The nasal passages, he said, provide a more direct path to the brain than the mouth. And while the lungs of mice and humans are designed to fend off infections, the brain is ill equipped to do so, Kumar said. Once viral infections reach the brain, they trigger an inflammatory response that can persist indefinitely, causing ongoing damage.

"The brain is one of the regions where virus likes to hide," he said, because it cannot mount the kind of immune response that can clear viruses from other parts of the body.

"That's why we're seeing severe disease and all these multiple symptoms like heart disease, stroke and all these long-haulers with loss of smell, loss of taste," Kumar said. "All of this has to do with the brain rather than with the lungs."

Rest of story at link
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#943 albedo

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 05:10 PM

I realize this might be very crude as analysis but how would you interpret these simple data between US, EU and China? It might be too simplistic but it looks to me that while EU reacted faster than US and got better for a while we are both now getting stuck in endless discussions for or against mitigation and lockdowns, with mixed and too complicated approaches, potentially breeding new variants and before vaccination deployment begins to show effect, China has basically solved the problem and recovered the economy. So maybe what matters is not to be for or against mitigations and lockdowns but when you do them aggressively and the degree of adherence of populations by free choice or coercion.

Attached File  US EU China Deaths.PNG   55.07KB   1 downloads

Attached File  US EU China Cases.PNG   53.78KB   1 downloads

 

(edit: spelling)


Edited by albedo, 21 January 2021 - 05:13 PM.

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#944 albedo

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Posted 27 January 2021 - 11:03 AM

Interesting wrt England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, Sweden, and the US:

 

Assessing Mandatory Stay-at-Home and Business Closure Effects on the Spread of COVID-19

https://pubmed.ncbi....h.gov/33400268/


Edited by albedo, 27 January 2021 - 11:05 AM.

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#945 pamojja

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Posted 29 January 2021 - 10:03 PM

by Sebastian Rushworth M.D.

Health and medical information grounded in science


Here’s a graph they don’t want you to see (https://sebastianrus...ant-you-to-see/)

Here’s a graph that doesn’t get shown in the mass media, and that I’m sure all those who want you to stay fearful of covid don’t want you to see. It shows the share of the tested population with antibodies to covid in Sweden week by week, beginning in the 28th week of 2020 (the first week for which the Swedish Public Health Authority provides data on the share of tests coming back positive).

https://i1.wp.com/se...jpg?w=470&ssl=1

There is so much that is interesting about this graph. Like I said, it begins in week 28, in other words in early July, which is around the time the first Swedish covid wave was bottoming out. At the time, I personally thought this was due to enough of the population having developed immunity to covid, but we now know that was wrong. Rather, it was due to seasonality – in other words, summer caused covid to disappear.

The proportion testing positive for antibodies was 15% in early July. It remained stable for a few weeks, and then started to drop, as we would expect, given that the rate of new infections was very low at the time. Your body generally doesn’t keep producing antibodies forever after an infection, rather they wane. Of course, this doesn’t mean immunity is waning, as I discussed on this blog a while back. Although the actively antibody producing cells disappear, memory cells remain, ready to be activated at short notice if you get re-exposed to the pathogen.

After an initial reduction, the proportion with antibodies stabilized at around 10% in August, and stayed that way until October, when it started to rise, in line with the beginning of the second wave. And it’s literally kept rising by a percentage point or two, every week, all autumn and winter so far. In the second week of January 2021, 40% of those tested in Sweden had antibodies to covid.

Funnily enough, mainstream media has so far shown relatively little interest in publicizing this astounding fact. I’ve been getting most of my statistics from SVT, the Swedish public broadcaster. They had been providing data on the share with antibodies in Stockholm up to a month or two back, when that information discretely disappeared from their website. I wonder why.

I know some of you will respond that 40% doesn’t mean anything, because the data isn’t taken from a random sample. If all we had was one number, then that would be a valid point. But we don’t just have one number. We have the number for every week stretching back six months. Any bias due to people preferentially getting tested after a respiratory infection that applies now, when 40% are testing positive, also applied three months ago, when 10% were testing positive. The trend is real, and cannot be denied.

Apart from that, there is another form of bias that will tend to make the proportion with antibodies seem lower than it really is. This is the fact that people who already know they’ve had covid generally don’t keep re-testing themselves to confirm it. This group gets bigger and bigger as more and more people get covid, and this will eventually make the proportion with antibodies seem lower than it really is. So at some point, there is an inflection point. In the early pandemic, a larger share of those being tested will have antibodies than you would get from a random sample. In the late stages of the pandemic, a smaller share of those being tested will have antibodies than you would see in a random sample.

In the last few weeks the number of people being treated for covid in hospitals in Sweden has been dropping rapidly, as has the share of PCR-tests that are coming back positive. There is much discussion in the media about what the cause might be. Everyone seems to be very surprised. Is it because people are better at working from home? Or because people aren’t traveling as much? Or because more people are wearing face masks?

No-one is discussing the obvious explanation – that so many people have now had covid, and have developed immunity, that the virus is having difficulty finding new hosts. In other words, Sweden’s oddly controversial “herd immunity” strategy worked.

So, 40% of those tested have antibodies. And that likely underestimates the proportion of the population that is immune to covid, because antibody production wanes much faster than immunity wanes, and because not everyone produces antibodies after infection, and because not everyone is susceptible to the virus in the first place.

At the end of the second week of January, 10,323 people had died of/with covid in Sweden. In fact, the real number is probably much lower. A recent study carried out here in Stockholm found that only 17% of those who supposedly died of covid in care homes actually had covid as the primary cause of death.

But let’s assume 10,323 is correct, for the sake of argument. If 40% of Swedes have had covid, that gives an infection fatality rate of 0,25%. It’s a little higher than the global infection fatality rate determined by professor John Ioannidis, which is likely due to the fact that Sweden’s population is older than the global average. But it’s not much higher, and certainly not high enough to motivate the large scale harm imposed on us by the powers that be. That’s why the fear mongers don’t want you to see that graph. And that’s why I hope you will help me spread it far and wide.

Edited by pamojja, 29 January 2021 - 10:06 PM.

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#946 Hebbeh

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Posted 30 January 2021 - 12:05 AM

In respect to Sweden and any supposed herd immunity, is that most knowledgeable experts seem to be in agreement that any herd immunity possibility won't begin to be realized until we hit at least 80%.  Herd immunity at 40% seems highly unlikely based on previous seasonal virus behaviors.

 

And if herd immunity is realized so easily in Sweden, then why have we not realized some degree of herd immunity in any number of other countries with worse and more extensive outbreaks?

 

And how will any concept of herd immunity play out with second and third wave and more of these more contagious and deadly mutations emerging?

 

Quite honestly, this just doesn't seem plausible.  It would more easily be, once again, someone with an agenda manipulating the data to support their position.


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#947 Hip

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Posted 30 January 2021 - 05:35 PM

And if herd immunity is realized so easily in Sweden, then why have we not realized some degree of herd immunity in any number of other countries with worse and more extensive outbreaks?

 
Indeed. If herd immunity is occurring, you would expect it to be greatest in countries with the highest exposure to coronavirus — which will tend to be those countries with the highest per capita deaths (total death number is an indirect measure of how many people have caught coronavirus, if we go by the figure that 0.5% of all infected people die — you just multiply the deaths by 200 to get the total number infected).
 
Now in Europe, the UK currently has one of the highest per capita coronavirus deaths — but there is no sign of herd immunity slowing down the pandemic in the UK.
 

 

 

Swedish coronavirus data is skewed anyway, because of the reporting system they use: this article explains:

The death counts for the last 2 weeks in Sweden should therefore always be interpreted as an incomplete count of what occurred in this period.
 

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#948 Hip

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Posted 31 January 2021 - 03:25 AM

For those here who have suggested lockdown, wearing masks, etc is not having any effect on reducing viral transmission — see this:

 

Flu is 'almost wiped out' and at lowest level in 130 YEARS as seasonal virus plummets by 95%   

 

It's clear that lockdown, etc is having a massive effect in reducing flu transmission. 

 

Which a great bonus of lockdown, because by decimating flu cases in this way, it frees up a lot of hospital beds for coronavirus patients — beds that would normally be taken by flu patients during the very busy winter flu period. This it at least one happily fortuitous effect of the lockdown.

 

 


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#949 aribadabar

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Posted 31 January 2021 - 04:14 AM

Rather, it was due to seasonality – in other words, summer caused covid to disappear.

 

Brazil is basically eternal summer for most of the populated areas - it should have had negligible COVID load then.

I call BS on this conclusion.


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#950 Marconius

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Posted 31 January 2021 - 05:02 AM



For those here who have suggested lockdown, wearing masks, etc is not having any effect on reducing viral transmission — see this:

 

Flu is 'almost wiped out' and at lowest level in 130 YEARS as seasonal virus plummets by 95%   

 

It's clear that lockdown, etc is having a massive effect in reducing flu transmission. 

 

Which a great bonus of lockdown, because by decimating flu cases in this way, it frees up a lot of hospital beds for coronavirus patients — beds that would normally be taken by flu patients during the very busy winter flu period. This it at least one happily fortuitous effect of the lockdown.

 

On the short term, by freeing up of medical resources, it is indeed a good thing. However it could also lead to a more hard-hitting flu wave after the lockdown/mass face mask-wearing ends. Also it seems that those at most risk of the flu overlap with those most at risk of COVID-19. 

 

In other news : 

 

Reuters

 

 

(...)

 

The WHO-led probe has been plagued by delays, concern over access and bickering between Beijing and Washington, which accused China of hiding the extent of the initial outbreak and criticised the terms of the visit, under which Chinese experts conducted the first phase of research.

 

The WHO, which has sought to manage expectations for the mission, said on Friday that team members would be limited to visits organised by their Chinese hosts and would not have any contact with community members, due to health restrictions.

 

(...)

Rest at the above link.


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#951 pamojja

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Posted 31 January 2021 - 05:56 PM

Brazil is basically eternal summer for most of the populated areas - it should have had negligible COVID load then.
I call BS on this conclusion.


On account of 'eternal summer' it should have neglible covid? - Do you have any sources to this claim counter decades of resperiatory disease research?

Influenza and its seasonality has been studied by a guy with the name R. Edgar Hope-Simson for half a century, culminating in the book: The transmission of Epidemic Influenza. The different seasons for different latitudes examplified on page 96 of its PDF-version:

attachicon.gif Screenshot_20210105-124217.png


edit: uploaded and attached below

attachicon.gif 11th-The-Transmission-of-Influenza-BOOK.pdf


Brazil falls almost exclusive in the southern tropical seasonal zone, and does confirm.

#952 aribadabar

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Posted 01 February 2021 - 02:08 AM

On account of 'eternal summer' it should have neglible covid? - Do you have any sources to this claim counter decades of resperiatory disease research?


Brazil falls almost exclusive in the southern tropical seasonal zone, and does confirm.

 

 

I don't need reams of data to prove the obvious to the naked eye. You can't have the third worst COVID outbreak site in the world where it's summer pretty much all year long AND continue to claim that COVID disappears during summer. It is a simple mutually exclusive deduction.
 
Do you see any difference in seasonality between winter (July in the southern hemisphere) and summer (January)? I can't in the attached chart.
 
 
India's (second worst COVID outbreak site) case (in Northern hemisphere) also proved that conclusion to be false.
 
 
US South data also refutes that conjecture.
 
 
In other words, that book's assertions do NOT apply to COVID as it is not just another influenza virus.

 

Attached Files


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#953 Mind

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Posted 01 February 2021 - 05:56 PM

 

 

At the end of the second week of January, 10,323 people had died of/with covid in Sweden. In fact, the real number is probably much lower. A recent study carried out here in Stockholm found that only 17% of those who supposedly died of covid in care homes actually had covid as the primary cause of death.

 

This is the case in nearly every country of the world. Incidental deaths are being attributed to COVID, leading to a large overestimation.

 

In SIngapore, where they have a more responsible, scientific, and stringent reporting requirement, deaths as a percentage of cases are very low.


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#954 Mind

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Posted 01 February 2021 - 05:59 PM

On the short term, by freeing up of medical resources, it is indeed a good thing. However it could also lead to a more hard-hitting flu wave after the lockdown/mass face mask-wearing ends. Also it seems that those at most risk of the flu overlap with those most at risk of COVID-19. 

 

In other news : 

 

Reuters

 

 

Rest at the above link.

 

Health Authorities: "COVID is spreading prolifically because people are not wearing masks!"

 

Health Authorities: "We don't have any flu because everyone is wearing masks"


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#955 Hip

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Posted 01 February 2021 - 06:00 PM

This is the case in nearly every country of the world. Incidental deaths are being attributed to COVID, leading to a large overestimation.

 

You keep saying this, but fail to provide any explanation for the massive surge in excess deaths that is occurring in all countries (apart from offering rather silly ideas that staying at home causes depression which then kills people from unhappiness — whereas in fact we see deaths decrease during lockdown).


Edited by Hip, 01 February 2021 - 06:04 PM.

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#956 Daniel Cooper

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Posted 01 February 2021 - 07:27 PM

Health Authorities: "COVID is spreading prolifically because people are not wearing masks!"

 

Health Authorities: "We don't have any flu because everyone is wearing masks"

 

That is a very fine line these masks must walk.

 

They must work just well enough to virtually eliminate influenza infection, but not quite well enough to stop covid.  Close but no cigar. We must wear better mask more diligently you see to stop covid.

 

That a very narrow eye in the needle to thread.


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#957 Florin

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Posted 01 February 2021 - 07:55 PM

Since COVID is much more contagious than the flu, you could fit a gigantic cow through that needle's eye.

 

And since the latest COVID variants are more contagious than the older ones and respirator production should have ramped up by now (right?), reusable respirators should be used rather than simple masks. Once most people have access to respirators, there wouldn't be any need for lockdowns or mask mandates (as long as there's enough compliance to avoid overwhelming hospitals).


Edited by Florin, 01 February 2021 - 07:57 PM.

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#958 Daniel Cooper

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Posted 01 February 2021 - 08:17 PM

Since COVID is much more contagious than the flu, you could fit a gigantic cow through that needle's eye.

 

And since the latest COVID variants are more contagious than the older ones and respirator production should have ramped up by now (right?), reusable respirators should be used rather than simple masks. Once most people have access to respirators, there wouldn't be any need for lockdowns or mask mandates (as long as there's enough compliance to avoid overwhelming hospitals).

 

You are making an assertion without having done the math. For one, the R0 of covid is still being debated. It's a hard metric to ascertain and the estimates are all over the map. You will find that the estimates vary with time and location.  We probably won't get an accurate handle on R0 for this virus until the pandemic is over. If then.


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#959 Florin

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Posted 02 February 2021 - 01:49 AM

Given all of the evidence to date, it's a safe assertion to make, and that's enough to inform policy.

 

After this pandemic ends, this will be mostly irrelevant, since any sane policy would recommend the stockpiling of reusable respirators for use in future pandemics.


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#960 Daniel Cooper

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Posted 02 February 2021 - 02:46 AM

All your assumptions seem to point in one direction, don't you think?


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