914 replies to this topic

[Hip]

If someone is so off the mark to start even worse pathologization of differring opinions - you deserve nothing less.

 
pamojja, you may have misunderstood the phrase "off the mark". I know English may not be you first language. This phrase means "inaccurate". I was saying your psychological analysis of my motivations is inaccurate.
 
 

 
People here may be interested to know that websites like this one are no longer listed in Google's top search results, as a result of Google's campaign against fake news and misinformation. So in the end, websites who promulgate misinformation will shoot themselves in the foot, as they will become marginalized on the Internet. 
 
The tech giants are working hard to make sure that misinformation does not see the light of day. There was a news article today that the UK NHS are teaming up with the tech giants to prevent the spread of coronavirus misinformation.
 
In the 21st century, the more shite you publish online, the less you will be heard, and the lower down you will appear in search engine results.
 

Thus if you value the website you are on, such as Longecity, it's in your interest not to post misinformation or conspiracy theory nonsense, because in the end you damage the reputation of the website, with respect to the algorithms developed by the tech giants, which work to filter out misinformation and fake news.

 

 

Edited by Hip, 10 March 2020 - 03:38 PM.

[Hip]

Either these meassures are completely too late to contain anything (see my former post of trying to get tested to prevent a spread through me), or it in the end the numbers will show it was again one of those lame ducks not even comming close to the mortality of the yearly flu.

 

Most experts I saw now interviewed don't think it still can be contained anymore, and a substancial part of the population will be infected sooner or later.

 

Sounds like you have not informed yourself of why these measures are taken. This is problem I am talking about: people coming here with only limited knowledge of what is going one, because they have not followed the story closely. It's never a good idea to pontificate on a subject, when you only know half the facts.

 

The hope of containment is the first reason these measures are taken; but it's looking increasingly like containment has failed, even though nations are trying very hard.

 

The second and equally important reason is that these measures reduce the number of cases that appear at one time. Hospitals will unable to cope if everyone is infected at the same time, so by slowing down the pandemic, it gives hospitals a fighting chance. 

[pamojja]

Thus if you value the website you are on, such as Longecity, it's in your interest not to post misinformation or conspiracy theory nonsense, because in the end you damage the reputation of the website you are on, with respect to the algorithms developed by the tech giants, which work to filter out misinformation and fake news.

 

You know really well that just providing informations about natural non-patented medicine, or links to vaccine safety studies. is already enough for being censored by Google. A crime you yourself do all the time. That's for them the main 'misinformation' and 'fake news', because of their financial ties.

 

[pamojja]

The hope of containment is the first reason these measures are taken; but it's looking increasingly like containment has failed, even though nations are trying very hard.

 

The second and equally important reason is that these measures reduce the number of cases that appear at one time. Hospitals will unable to cope if everyone is infected at the same time, so by slowing down the pandemic, it gives hospitals a fighting chance. 

 

Sure, by not providing testing to everyone they do everything known about to the virus to help it spread. Germany only since yesterday has it's first and only drive-through testing station. Austria is ready to lock down the country, but testing still not available (unless when arriving from the main 4 countries).

 

Nobody follows some experts advise, that widespread testing would be needed to find those asymptomatic spreading it silently. And as South Korea is doing - seems the only country taking it serious enough.

Edited by pamojja, 10 March 2020 - 03:51 PM.

[Hip]

You know really well that just providing informations about natural non-patented medicine, or links to vaccine safety studies. is already enough for being censored by Google. A crime you yourself do all the time. 

 

No, I use alternative and nonconlvential medicine — supplements, herbs, nootropics, peptides, etc — and sometimes find it beneficial but I don't go around saying that alternative medicine can cure cancer, infection, and so forth, as the natural medicine nutters often do.

 

Misinformation is where you claim for example that apricot kernels or a raw food diet can cure cancer. 

 

Steve Jobs, a man whose brilliant digital innovation I greatly admired (even in the 1980s when nobody had heard of him), was not quite so bright when it came to treating his own cancer. Being a bit of a hippy served him well in terms of the revolutionary things he did at Apple; but his hippy philosophy eventually killed him, because he thought he could cure his pancreatic cancer with a vegetarian diet. Had he used conventional cancer medicine, he might well be still alive today. 

Edited by Hip, 10 March 2020 - 04:22 PM.

[osris]

"Six Reasons Why Covid-19 Fails The Sniff Test"

 

This article quotes:

 

"The John Hopkins University Coronavirus Global Cases Monitor shows that the mortality rate of the epidemic is very low. At the close of this article, 87,470 cases, 2,990 deaths and 42,670 recovered.

 

It is normal for the media to focus on the first two figures, but I think it is important to remember the last one. The recovered figure is more than ten times the deceased one. This should not make the reader ignore the epidemic, but it is also worth reading the scientific study that shows that the death rate in citizens under 60 is less than 1.3%, 0.2% in young population, and on average it is a maximum of 4% (“The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases”, February 2020)."

 

https://www.zerohedg...ails-sniff-test

 

I'm not into conspiracy theories but I do think that there is too much alarm about the lethality of the coronavirus, which is just like a bad flu to the majority of people who aren't very old and already at death's door.

 

Edited by osris, 11 March 2020 - 05:56 PM.

[Mind]

It is accurate to call Corvid-19 a "bad flu" or a "bad cold", or a "more lethal flu", IMO.

 

Corona viruses have been well-known for decades and are a class of viruses that cause respiratory problems similar to the cold and flu.

 

It is not an exotic unknown virus with unknown effects.

[HBRU]

around 8% of mortality in Italy.... and we have a good health care system... (but older population than China)

Attached Files

•  coronavirus-italy.jpg   582.38KB   1 downloads

[HBRU]

What scares me mostly is IF the virus goes transmitted trough mosquitos (we dont have yet in Italy).

This are yesterdays italian numbers... please note we DO HAVE A GOOD HEALTH SYSTEM.... only population is much older than China one.

 

Attached Files

•  coronavirus-italy.jpg   582.38KB   2 downloads

Edited by HBRU, 12 March 2020 - 12:08 PM.

[osris]

Coronavirus could be is a renaming of pneumonia.

 

See:

 

Quote:

 

"If you’re beginning to think it’s easy to declare an epidemic and broadcast propaganda about it, you’re right. Take a conventional set of symptoms present in people all over the world, claim a new virus is causing them, and you’re off and running. You can report 500 or 1000 deaths from this virus and people will believe whatever you say or do next. They won’t realize that this set of symptoms has been present in millions and millions of people, for decades or centuries, without the new virus. They won’t realize millions of people have already died without the “new virus.”"

 

https://www.davidick...-no-coronavirus

 

Yes, I know, that link is to a David Icke site... but even a stopped clock can be right twice a day. But forget that and just look at the facts.

Edited by osris, 12 March 2020 - 03:06 PM.

[Oakman]

I thought this a very insightful discussion of the current outbreak and how it happens and will continue to happen for some time. It doesn't sound good, it would be nice if it is wrong. Time will give the answer. Anyone see flaws in the logic in this article?

 

 

--------

 

https://medium.com/@...ie-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

When you’re done reading the article, this is what you’ll take away:

The coronavirus is coming to you.
It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.
It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.
Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways.
Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die.
They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies.
The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today.
That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting now.

Edited by Oakman, 12 March 2020 - 04:29 PM.

[HBRU]

The virus genome has been mapped around the world many times alredy....

The virus may be easily artificial, true. But COVID-19 comes from SARS-COV-2

[Mind]

Keeping as many people as possible at home.

 

 

The key word is "possible". As I have argued in the other big Corona flu thread, you just can't tell EVERYONE to take a month-long vacation. Within a couple of days, there would be shortages in food and critical supplies. Within a couple of weeks, total societal disintegration.

 

 

It is coming at exponential speed

 

The same as any new flu or cold virus, every year. Nothing different with the Corona flu, just that this flu is much more lethal among elderly populations.

[osris]

It’s fascinating watching this coronavirus psychodrama being played out. I personally think that it’s really pneumonia that has been relabelled as a very deadly disease, either to usher in some sort of mass population marshal law, travel controls or eventually “discover” a vaccine for “it” to make money out of.

 

[osris]

Quote:

 

"Coronavirus® is about establishing control.

 

In the opinion of this blogger, propagandized pandemics are meant to prompt quarantine and vaccinations. And healthy immune systems have a better chance at fighting off any virus than perhaps people do surviving the likely depopulating measures of quarantines and vaccinations.

 

Fear engenders control and it seems hysteria has a higher transmission rate and longer sustainability in brain tissue, than coronaviruses.

 

Maybe some of you disagree and that’s fine.  What’s still great about America is how we get to choose our own conspiracy theories.

 

It could be Coronavirus® is as bad as it’s billed in the news.  At worst, it escaped from a Wuhan laboratory affiliated with China’s secret biological weapons program.  At the very least, it could be that many people are too eagerly anticipating the global end-game and have misplaced their enthusiasm.  And then there are those desiring to capitalize on the hype – ranging from media outlets seeking clickbait and ad revenue, to governments seeking control, to even Big Pharma seeking profit."

 

https://thetollonlin...-coronaviruses/

[pamojja]

I personally think that it’s really pneumonia that has been relabelled as a very deadly disease, ..

 

If it only were pneumonia occuring anyway, then why on earth suddenly the ICUs in North Italy can safe only the young now? - While before they never faced such though decisions?

 

With all the psychodrama, don't drow out your rationality.
 

[Oakman]

Remember the last time you got the flu? It sucked I'm sure. You probably missed a week or two of work.

 

Here's someone describe his CV experience now:

 

https://www.cnn.com/...-bts-nr-vpx.cnn

 

If this becomes commonplace for the CV experience, public panic will set in when there are no more beds available at hospitals.

[osris]

If it only were pneumonia occuring anyway, then why on earth suddenly the ICUs in North Italy can safe only the young now? - While before they never faced such though decisions?

 

With all the psychodrama, don't drow out your rationality.
 

 

I don't follow your logic, I'm afraid. Can you elaborate?

[Izan]

https://www.globalre...ated-us/5706078

[ymc]

https://www.dailymai...irus-fight.html

 

Boris Johnson is out of his mind! He suggests to do nothing and let every Britons get the virus.

 

To do this, one million Britons will have to die and two million will have irrecoverable damage to their lungs.

 

At least Trump has woken up and put peoples' lives above the economy. What a disgrace! 

[shp5]

Whenever COVID-19 and the flu are compared, I think people underestimate just how bad the flu actually is. 25 000 deaths in (a very bad) 2018/19 flu season in Germany. that is a big number. if Corona is 5 - 10 times more deadly, this is very serious. And if it were just as deadly, it still is serious.

Edited by shp5, 15 March 2020 - 04:07 PM.

[BlueCloud]

 

 

It’s fascinating watching this coronavirus psychodrama being played out. I personally think that it’s really pneumonia that has been relabelled as a very deadly disease, either to usher in some sort of mass population marshal law, travel controls or eventually “discover” a vaccine for “it” to make money out of.

@Osris : you’re wrong. It’s actually a hoax organized by US Democrats, helped by shape-shifting lizards coming  from Uranus. No one died, no one is sick. I got this directly from one of those lizards from Uranus, but he smelled so bad i couldn’t get more details and had to run.

we are all sitting here in Italy, France, Spain, China in front of giant screens watching gullible americans who think this is real.

 

Edited by BlueCloud, 15 March 2020 - 07:03 PM.

[HBRU]

It has nothing to do with flu... This is something sure

[Mind]

The current best data indicates that it is about 10 times worse than the seasonal flu, so the term "bad flu", or "severe flu", like I mentioned earlier, probably does not do it justice. It is a virus that causes respiratory ailments (like the cold and flu), but much worse.

[Forever21]

I call it the Chinese Ebola 

or

Wuhan China Virus

[Daniel Cooper]

Italy's experience says it doesn't "fail the sniff test".  Their health care system is being overwhelmed.  

 

Neither is it the end of the world.  It is a significant pandemic that will probably kill a decent number of people when it is all said and done.  It should be taken seriously and reasonable steps to prevent it's spread should be taken.  

 

According to my Italian friends, the people there initially blew it off as "no big deal".  They certainly don't believe that now.  

 

The Case Fatality Rate on this infection is currently pegged at around 2.5.  That's somewhat ominous in that the 1918 Flu Pandemic also had a CFR right around 2.5 and they appear to be roughly as communicable.  Regular flu typically has a CFR of around 0.1.

 

That said, right now the only people getting tested are people sick enough to seek medical care, and I think that is skewing the CFR.  Once widespread testing is implemented it will start to pick up asymptomatic cases which are not currently being counted.  I believe this may be happening in South Korea where their CFR number appears to have fallen to around 0.9 last time I looked.  That would put it at roughly 10x as fatal as a normal flu, which agrees with Mind's number.

 

 

 

[Mind]

Italy's experience says it doesn't "fail the sniff test".  Their health care system is being overwhelmed.  

 

Neither is it the end of the world.  It is a significant pandemic that will probably kill a decent number of people when it is all said and done.  It should be taken seriously and reasonable steps to prevent it's spread should be taken.  

 

According to my Italian friends, the people there initially blew it off as "no big deal".  They certainly don't believe that now.  

 

The Case Fatality Rate on this infection is currently pegged at around 2.5.  That's somewhat ominous in that the 1918 Flu Pandemic also had a CFR right around 2.5 and they appear to be roughly as communicable.  Regular flu typically has a CFR of around 0.1.

 

That said, right now the only people getting tested are people sick enough to seek medical care, and I think that is skewing the CFR.  Once widespread testing is implemented it will start to pick up asymptomatic cases which are not currently being counted.  I believe this may be happening in South Korea where their CFR number appears to have fallen to around 0.9 last time I looked.  That would put it at roughly 10x as fatal as a normal flu, which agrees with Mind's number.

 

If this illness kills as many people as the Spanish Flu (percentage-wise) that would be about 190,000,000 dead . Considering that China levelled off at a little over 3,000 deaths, from the perspective of the current date, there is no way the Corona flu will be anywhere near comparable. Many populous countries are already getting it under control. The only huge populated areas that could bring a total death toll up to 190,000,000 are India, Africa, and perhaps Mexico or Latin America.

[HBRU]

Italian situation is terrific in some regions ... Yes.

[Mind]

Italian situation is terrific in some regions ... Yes.

 

Do you mean some areas are bad (terrible)....but some areas are good (terrific) ??

[pamojja]

That said, right now the only people getting tested are people sick enough to seek medical care, and I think that is skewing the CFR.  Once widespread testing is implemented it will start to pick up asymptomatic cases which are not currently being counted.  I believe this may be happening in South Korea where their CFR number appears to have fallen to around 0.9 last time I looked.  That would put it at roughly 10x as fatal as a normal flu, which agrees with Mind's number.

 

Though its beyond me to verify the following abstract:

 

 

[Potential false-positive rate among the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' in close contacts of COVID-19 patients].

[Article in Chinese; Abstract available in Chinese from the publisher]

Zhuang GH¹, Shen MW, Zeng LX, Mi BB, Chen FY, Liu WJ, Pei LL, Qi X, Li C.

Author information

Abstract

in English, Chinese

Objective: As the prevention and control of COVID-19continues to advance, the active nucleic acid test screening in the close contacts of the patients has been carrying out in many parts of China. However, the false-positive rate of positive results in the screening has not been reported up to now. But to clearify the false-positive rate during screening is important in COVID-19 control and prevention. Methods: Point values and reasonable ranges of the indicators which impact the false-positive rate of positive results were estimated based on the information available to us at present. The false-positive rate of positive results in the active screening was deduced, and univariate and multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to understand the robustness of the findings. Results: When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%. The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%. Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.

 

But if true, that would actually double the mortality rate again.