1036 replies to this topic

[Mind]

A sensible take on the Danish mask study. It is what it is. It was a large study, well-done, and statistically significant. Masks did not provide statistically significant protection from contracting this novel(?) coronavirus.

 

https://www.medpaget...ay-prasad/89778

 

Many previous small RCT trials (before COVID-19) were inconclusive on masks.  This study is typical of previous mask studies: https://pubmed.ncbi....h.gov/25903751/ Participants who wore cloth masks at over 50% compliance did no better than controls (about 25% mask compliance)

 

This is blindingly obvious in my part of the world. Over three months into a mask mandate and cases have increased every single week. In the beginning the compliance was only about 50%. It has been well over 90% for the last 2 to 3 weeks. The masks are doing nothing. The governor is going on TV screaming at the 2 or 3 percent of people who are not wearing masks in public.

 

I know masks make "common sense", but reality sometimes runs counter to "common sense". Reasons why masks are not helping in most countries of the world:

 

1. Most people are wearing sub-standard face coverings - materials that do not block aerosolized viruses very well.

2. Most people are not schooled in the proper handling of masks/face coverings - probably contributing to greater spread.

3. Most people do not have fitted masks.

4. Most people are not changing their masks often enough.

5. Most of the spread is happening in close contact at home, where people are not wearing masks.

6. Some people are wearing respirators with valves - which do almost nothing in stopping viral transmission.

 

There are a lot of other reasons.

 

If more people had professionally fitted respirators and were schooled in proper handling, then I think we would see a greater benefit.

[Hip]

A sensible take on the Danish mask study. It is what it is. It was a large study, well-done, and statistically significant. Masks did not provide statistically significant protection from contracting this novel(?) coronavirus.

 

The Danish study tells us nothing new. Experts stated right at the very beginning of the pandemic that surgical masks and face coverings protect others from the infection, but do not protect the wearer much. I mentioned this to you recently. This is why it is a moral decision to wear a mask: because you are not doing for yourself, you are doing it for others. And this is why for those who lack concern for others, we have had to mandate mask use.

 

The Danish study only measured the effects of mask wearing on the wearer, not the effects on the people around them. 

 

Thus the Danish study was a bit of waste of tine and money.

 

 

Furthermore, the Danish study did not examine another possibly important factor related to mask wearing: that a mask may not stop the wearer catching coronavirus, but it may reduce the initial viral load, by filtering out some of the virus; and if you reduce the amount of virus that a person is exposed to, it is believed this may make the subsequent infection less severe.

 

One theory is that the reduced death rate we are seeing during this second wave of coronavirus is due to mask wearing, which filters out some (but not all) of the virus, which may be making the infections less severe.

Edited by Hip, 19 November 2020 - 07:51 PM.

[Florin]

Masks don't protect the wearer from infection if no one else is wearing them. Yeah, no kidding. If anything, this study clearly shows the necessity of mask mandates.

 

The recommendation to wear surgical masks to supplement other public health measures did not reduce the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate among wearers by more than 50% in a community with modest infection rates, some degree of social distancing, and uncommon general mask use.

 

Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers
https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-6817

Edited by Florin, 19 November 2020 - 08:02 PM.

[Daniel Cooper]

 

Masks may also reduce the severity of infection or death rate for wearers, even if no one else is wearing mask, but this is more speculative. 

 

 

Do we have any evidence to back up that speculation?

 

Edited by Daniel Cooper, 19 November 2020 - 07:53 PM.

[Florin]

Do we have any evidence to back up that speculation?

 

There's some evidence, but I'm not sure if it rises to a level above speculation. Depending on the material, it's not too much of a stretch to suppose that physical barriers like masks block a certain percentage of droplets and even aerosols from being inhaled by the mask wearer. And there is actual physical evidence that this can be the case. So, under some circumstances, less viral load should translate into lower infection severity. If I recall correctly, there is also some evidence for this claim, but I'll need to look for it again. Although there might be some effect even in a low compliance situation, this is more likely to be effective in a high compliance scenario, so mask mandates would still be needed.

 

https://www.maskfaq.com/test-results

Edited by Florin, 19 November 2020 - 08:37 PM.

[Hip]

Some evidence of the relationship between viral exposure dose and subsequent infection severity given in this article. This relationship has certainly been proven true for influenzavirus.

[Florin]

Do we have any evidence to back up that speculation?

 

So, under some circumstances, less viral load should translate into lower infection severity. If I recall correctly, there is also some evidence for this claim, but I'll need to look for it again.

 
Hamster Experiment 3.
 
Surgical Mask Partition Reduces the Risk of Noncontact Transmission in a Golden Syrian Hamster Model for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa644

[Mind]

Just another blogger that is noticing the obvious. Most of the world is wearing masks and it is not stopping the spread of the virus. https://jordanschach...-wearing-a-mask

 

Back when there were no masks (all year up until late July) and no lockdown in my state (starting in May), the spread was very slow. Ever since the mask mandate went into effect the cases have risen dramatically. Compliance has been well over 90% (like most of the U.S.) for almost two months now and it did nothing to slow the spread. Nothing.

 

Masks are not stopping the wearers from getting COVID.

 

Masks are not stopping other people from getting COVID.

 

I feel like I am in a world-wide Ash Conformity Experiment:

 

 

 

I am supposed to conform and deny what I clearly see going on in most of the world. I am supposed to say "masks work, masks work, mask work", when I can see that they are not working. Everyone is wearing masks and the virus is spreading worse than ever.

Edited by Mind, 08 December 2020 - 03:24 PM.

[Hip]

Just another blogger that is noticing the obvious. Most of the world is wearing masks and it is not stopping the spread of the virus. https://jordanschach...-wearing-a-mask

 

Back when there were no masks (all year up until late July) and no lockdown in my state (starting in May), the spread was very slow.

 

Another amateur thinker who feels he must throw his untutored opinion into the world. The bad thing about the advent of the Internet is that it lets even the most unqualified people stand on their soap box and spout their naive views. 

 

People should be given some sort of knowledge and intelligence test before they are allowed to post information on the Internet. Before the Internet, if you were an idiot, your only audience was your mates in the local bar. But now the idiots have gone global. Very bad step for humanity, running the world as an idiocracy. 

 

 

Have you never noticed that the spread of coronavirus is temperature and season dependent? Did you not notice how the pandemic almost went away in the northern hemisphere summer, as the temperature increased? And now as winter returns, coronavirus is coming back with a vengeance? 

 

At the same time, during the northern hemisphere summer, coronavirus cases exploded in Australia, where it was winter. Just look at the new daily cases Worldometer for Australia. 

 

Understanding science involves taking into account the multiple causal factors that affect your subject of study. The general public finds it hard to do this; thus their opinions about the pandemic and other science subjects are way off the mark.

 

 

 

This blogger you linked to, Jordan Schachtel, has not even once mentioned the fact that winter makes the pandemic worse. He does not seem to be able to accommodate more than one causal factor in his thinking.

Edited by Hip, 08 December 2020 - 04:38 PM.

[Dorian Grey]

Saw a good article yesterday:

 

https://finance.yaho...-130025935.html

 

Skip the Useless Covid-19 Rules, Please

 

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- A clutter of unhelpful pandemic rules is wearing people down. One-way systems in stores, outdoor mask mandates, ceaselessly cleaning groceries and packages — should these things be our top priorities for limiting the spread of Covid-19?

 

-----------------

 

The outdoor mask fever is what I find most distressing.  They've shut down outdoor dining in California, even though there is no science/data indicating outdoor transmission is at all problematic.  I can't help but think this was done solely due to the fact some politicians simply can't stand to see anyone lower their mask, even to eat outdoors.  

 

------------------

 

In Massachusetts, governor Charlie Baker has focused his latest round of rules on outdoor mask wearing — something that many experts have said is unlikely to help since the virus is extremely unlikely to be transmitted over distances outside. The British Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies has deemed outdoor mask wearing of negligible benefit.

Baker’s ruling prompted Harvard epidemiologist Julia Marcus to suggest in Boston.com that he’s playing pandemic theater. “Arbitrary public health rules are a way to break the public’s trust, which is essential to keeping people engaged in public health efforts,” she told a reporter for the site. “I think a mandate like this — that people know is arbitrary — is going to do more to reduce trust than it will to reduce infections.”

Baker has justified his outdoor mask mandate by saying it sends a message. The message I heard was that that the rules are not chosen for our health and welfare but to make our political leaders look like they are doing something.

-------------------

The outdoor mask mandates & banning of outdoor dining is doing something alright...  It's destroying lives & breeding contempt!  

[Hip]

This article details a study in European countries showing a 15% drop in COVID mortality for every 1°C rise in temperature. This is why the pandemic eased off a great deal during summer, but is coming back with vengeance now that we are in winter.

Edited by Hip, 08 December 2020 - 04:56 PM.

[Mr Serendipity]

Another amateur thinker who feels he must throw his untutored opinion into the world. The bad thing about the advent of the Internet is that it lets even the most unqualified people stand on their soap box and spout their naive views.

Lol I’m not going to lie but the irony of this did make me chuckle. If you applied this logic fairly, then it applies to most people on this forum including yourself, because I’m pretty sure most people here are unqualified to give an opinion on COVID, all we can do is discuss and debate.

Edited by Jesus is King, 08 December 2020 - 04:59 PM.

[Dorian Grey]

This article details a study in European countries showing a 15% drop in COVID mortality for every 1°C rise in temperature. This is why the pandemic eased off a great deal during summer, but is coming back with vengeance now that we are in winter.

 

What are your thoughts on outdoor mask mandates?  If restaurants space tables outdoors, is it still too dangerous to allow someone to lower their mask long enough to eat? 

 

Is it worth sacrificing every little mom & pop restaurant in the land simply to "send the message" bare faces must never be seen in public under any circumstances?  

Edited by Dorian Grey, 08 December 2020 - 05:04 PM.

[gamesguru]

Everyone is wearing masks and the virus is spreading worse than ever.

 

Everyone is wearing masks to the grocery store. NOT always over their nose though. And a lot of regional dependence, plenty of counties and small shops NOT requiring masks at all. The decisions made in one area can affect places far away.

 

When people hangout and have drinks (at someone's house now no doubt) they are also NOT wearing masks. A lot of viral transmission is happening within homes or social cliques, but the masks are still of use in supermarkets and other public congregations.

 

There is incontrovertible evidence that 3-ply masks, worn properly, serve to substantially slow the release of respiratory droplets and the spread of viral material.
Whether or not you believe slowing the spread is good, or that herd immunity is the right approach, that is another issue entirely. And it's a more hotly contested issue, than whether or not masks slow the spread.

[Hip]

Lol I’m not going to lie but the irony of this did make me chuckle. If you applied this logic fairly, then it applies to most people on this forum including yourself, because I’m pretty sure most people here are unqualified to give an opinion on COVID, all we can do is discuss and debate.

 

I agree with you, I have no background in medicine or biology.

 

But ever since being hit by Coxsackie B4 virus in 2003, which triggered the miserable disease of chronic fatigue syndrome, I've spent over a decade reading medical science online for many hours daily, and in particular virology, in the hope of finding some answers for myself. So I have learnt one or two things about medical science, but have only scratched the surface, and I would be the first to admit that I am ignorant about most medical areas.

 

However, I have read enough about medical science to know that it is extremely complex, and thus beyond the reach of your average blogger. I've read enough about biology and living systems to know it makes rocket science look easy!

 

Thus when I see someone like Jordan Schachtel, who with brazen arrogance is attempting to analyze the coronavirus pandemic without knowing the first thing about biology, it's pretty clear that the lunatics have taken over the asylum. 

Edited by Hip, 08 December 2020 - 06:06 PM.

[Daniel Cooper]

I don't think there's incontrovertible evidence for much of anything in this covid ordeal. Including mask wearing.

 

It seems logical that it might help. But in this thread we have studies that conflict. I wear a mask in public and suggest everyone else does as well. But do I feel confident that it's making a significant impact? No.

 

In my area, there is a high degree of mask compliance and the vast majority are wearing them correctly over the nose. This has been the case since at least early/mid summer. And yet, infection rates in this area were at best flat during the summer/early fall months and they have of course been climbing since temperatures have begun to drop.

 

So we have a.) A feeling that mask should work to some extent (which I share) b.) Conflicting studies, but perhaps more that show a positive effect and c.) Real world experience that shows that in many areas with observably good mask compliance we aren't seeing the drop in infection rates that we'd hoped for.  

 

As they say, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. If you've got areas with good mask compliance and the infection rates aren't falling and in fact are recently climbing, it's reasonable to question how well these things work.

 

The one piece of compelling evidence is "Asia". The great success that South Korea and maybe China has had (I say maybe China because we really just don't know what's going on there).  They wear masks and they have been very successful at keeping covid at bay.  But, this is a type of post hoc ergo propter hoc argument. That doesn't mean the argument is wrong, masks may be the reason South Korea has done so well, but it does mean from a logical perspective it's not a good argument. Mainly because we aren't testing masks in isolation. Masks aren't the only difference between Seoul South Korea and NYC USA.  This is why we do randomized double blind experiments - to prevent exactly this sort of logic.

 

One can always say - "Well, people aren't wearing the masks right" or "The masks could be better". But you look for street scenes in South Korea and you'll see people wearing masks incorrectly there as well and masks that don't look on average better than what I see here.

 

I wear a mask in pubic. I think other people should as well. But, I don't have any level of confidence that it's making a difference and based on the fact that people are wearing them and things aren't getting better some suspicion that it is not.

 

Edited by Daniel Cooper, 08 December 2020 - 06:11 PM.

[Mr Serendipity]

I agree with you, I have no background in medicine or biology.

 

But ever since being hit by Coxsackie B4 virus in 2003, which triggered the miserable disease of chronic fatigue syndrome, I've spent over a decade reading medical science online for many hours daily, and in particular virology, in the hope of finding some answers for myself. So I have learnt one or two things about medical science, but have only scratched the surface, and I would be the first to admit that I am ignorant about most medical areas.

 

However, I have read enough about medical science to know that it is extremely complex, and thus beyond the reach of your average blogger. I've read enough about biology and living systems to know it makes rocket science look easy!

 

Thus when I see someone like Jordan Schachtel, who with brazen arrogance is attempting to analyze the coronavirus pandemic without knowing the first thing about biology, it's pretty clear that the lunatics have taken over the asylum. 

 

Hey no problem, I think we're all here to find answers to this pandemic and our own health issues. At the end of the day we can only debate the points we believe, and hope our convicted beliefs are on the right side of history. I doubt there are any people here who have a hidden or selfish agenda to make more people sick, rather they differ on opinion on the actual science of what works and what doesn't.

 

However I will say while I know nothing about this Jordan guy, a lot of the people I notice who usually have a hidden/selfish agenda using hyperbole or false information, are the people who have something to sell by using that fear, and a lot of them do exist in the blogosphere.

Edited by Jesus is King, 08 December 2020 - 06:49 PM.

[gamesguru]

in many areas with observably good mask compliance we aren't seeing the drop in infection rates that we'd hoped for.

 

Compared to when? March and April? That can be largely explained by mitigation fatigue.

 

The social distancing factor has gone from -50% in April up to -20% or so today^[1], meanwhile mask use has only increased marginally.

[Hip]

What are your thoughts on outdoor mask mandates?  

 

I don't think anyone needs to wear a mask if going for a walk along an uncrowded suburban street for example. I don't, when I go out for a walk. 

 

It's different in crowed environments like public transport, very busy shopping streets, etc

[Daniel Cooper]

 

 

Compared to when? March and April? That can be largely explained by mitigation fatigue.

 

The social distancing factor has gone from -50% in April up to -20% or so today^[1], meanwhile mask use has only increased marginally.

 

 

If you find yourself constantly having to explain why mask mandates and good mask compliance hasn't worked, perhaps you should consider that it may be because it doesn't.

[gamesguru]

If you find yourself constantly having to explain why mask mandates and good mask compliance hasn't worked, perhaps you should consider that it may be because it doesn't.

 

Yes, it's true if you find yourself arguing for a certain position.. You're either stubborn, or you're backing it up with evidence against a simplified view. There's always two sides to a coin

[Dorian Grey]

I don't think anyone needs to wear a mask if going for a walk along an uncrowded suburban street for example. I don't, when I go out for a walk. 

 

It's different in crowed environments like public transport, very busy shopping streets, etc

 

What about dining outdoors on a breezy Fall day?  Masks on till seated and when ordering, and when using the restroom; wait-staff properly masked full time.  

 

Do we let restaurants survive, & those who wish to dine out accept a micro-risk?  Or is it thumbs down to the little folks trying to keep their business alive? 

 

If people can't dine out, will they have friends over for indoor dinners & drinks?  Would this be preferable?  

[Hip]

What about dining outdoors on a breezy Fall day?  Masks on till seated and when ordering, and when using the restroom; wait-staff properly masked full time.  

 

Do we let restaurants survive, & those who wish to dine out accept a micro-risk?  Or is it thumbs down to the little folks trying to keep their business alive? 

 

I think if you are eating in a restaurant, in my view, I don't think keeping masks on while you are ordering is going to make a great deal of difference, if you are for the rest of the evening not wearing a mask.  

 

But yes, you would want to see waiters wearing a mask, especially as they are standing above your table and food, which means any infected saliva globules ejected from their mouths could easily land on your food. 

 

Also, in the case of indoor restaurants, you would want to to see standard HEPA filter air purifiers being used in the room. These machines are really cheap, and effectively remove the airborne infected particles from the air, which can normally hang in the air for hours. Strangely I have not seen these mandated anywhere.

 

Keeping businesses alive is an important issue, so we have to accept some risk. But there are many social gatherings (like rave parties, or large parties in the home) which are not helping businesses, and yet people still engage in them.

[Dorian Grey]

Oh we haven't been dining indoors in San Diego for months.  Patio dining has been salvation for those with space outdoors & the money to buy heaters & sun-shades.  Sadly, many could not manage this. 

 

What's got me steamed is they've gone & banned OUTDOOR dining, without any scientific rationale.  Apparently, as Massachusetts, governor Charlie Baker opined in my post above, "it sends a message".  Smiling happy people making the best of a bad situation & supporting local businesses will simply not be tolerated!  

 

Resistance is Futile...  You will be vaccinated!  

[gamesguru]

Yeah I don't know closing restaurants makes the most sense, but at this point I think officials are just rummaging around in their pockets for anything they can do to slow the spread. Closing crowded night clubs makes more sense unfortunately. But without some wider policing that borders on fascist—to drive down our numbers like New Zealand, or achieve some better trajectory—it seems half efforted and ineffective.

 

Hard to enforce a HEPA filter at every business. Sometimes there's a big change in things, and it takes time for policy to catch up.

[Daniel Cooper]

Yes, it's true if you find yourself arguing for a certain position.. You're either stubborn, or you're backing it up with evidence against a simplified view. There's always two sides to a coin

 

 

Oh, there is stubbornness on both sides to go around. People have very entrenched positions at this point, both pro and con. I really don't think either side will convince the other.

 

My position is that there are reasons to think that masks should to some extent work, but the actual real world evidence hasn't been a slam dunk.  Much of this country and the western world is now masked up. But infection rates have remained stubbornly flat and are now trending up as the seasons change. Now maybe that can be explained away as mitigation fatigue, and maybe not. We probably won't figure out how effective masks were until some smart PhD candidate does a doctoral thesis on this a year or two after the crisis has passed.

 

Till then, I'll wear a mask and suggest other people should wear a mask. I'm a little skeptical of how much good I'm doing, but the cost is fairly low. 

 

I don't think this is an unreasonable position.

[gamesguru]

Oh, there is stubbornness on both sides to go around.

 

Yes but it was still overly presumptive of you to accuse me of stubbornness just because I summoned up additional evidence.

 

Summoning up additional evidence is literally something people who are in the right do when questioned or challenged!

[geo12the]

There is a misguided narrative spreading around that is basically: "the virus is still spreading, therefore masks don't work!!!" But the reality is the infection rate could be astronomical if people did not wear masks. If you look at where the virus has high infection rates it's in states where people are not into masking. For example lets take a look at North Dakota and South Dakota. These states have a sparse population compared to states like NY and California. Because they have a sparse population the virus should not spread as easily there as places like California where the high population means a greater likelihood of interacting with more people and thus more sick people. North Dakota and South Dakota are not into masking and people there are very invested in political tribalism that fosters downplaying the virus and not masking.   The Testing Positivity, according to Johns Hopkins (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/) in North Dakota is 7.33%. South Dakota is 25.35. In contrast in California where most wear masks the infection rate is 5.36 and NY is 3.44. The per capita case rate (cases per 100,000 people), according to the CDC, is 11,000 for North Dakota, 9,800  for South Dakota, 3,450 for California and 3,400 for NY. Now let's do a thought experiment: What would happen if California and NY adopted the anti-mask attitudes of North and South Dakota? Cases would skyrocket and because of the population densities in those states many people would die. So I would change "the virus is still spreading, therefore masks don't work!!!" to: "the virus is still spreading, and will spread even more if people don't wear masks!!!"

[Daniel Cooper]

Yes but it was still overly presumptive of you to accuse me of stubbornness just because I summoned up additional evidence.

 

Summoning up additional evidence is literally something people who are in the right do when questioned or challenged!

 

1.) My comment was general and not really targeted to you specifically.  I think positions on both sides are pretty much set in concrete at this point. I'm stubborn, you're stubborn, we're all stubborn. That's not an attack, it's merely a statement of fact.

 

2.) People on both the right and wrong side typically cite evidence. This is not a black and white situation because it is not a controlled experiment. There are many variables in play, one of which are these masks. It's not uncommon for two people on the opposite sides of an argument to cite the same evidence because interpreting evidence is where the issues usually lie. 

 

3.) It is likewise presumptive to characterize those who disagree with you as holding a "simplified view".

 

Maybe we should all take a deep breath and try to relax. We're discussing an issue that's far cloudier than any of us would like. There's nothing personal here.

[Daniel Cooper]

There is a misguided narrative spreading around that is basically: "the virus is still spreading, therefore masks don't work!!!" But the reality is the infection rate could be astronomical if people did not wear masks. If you look at where the virus has high infection rates it's in states where people are not into masking. For example lets take a look at North Dakota and South Dakota. These states have a sparse population compared to states like NY and California. Because they have a sparse population the virus should not spread as easily there as places like California where the high population means a greater likelihood of interacting with more people and thus more sick people. North Dakota and South Dakota are not into masking and people there are very invested in political tribalism that fosters downplaying the virus and not masking.   The Testing Positivity, according to Johns Hopkins (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/) in North Dakota is 7.33%. South Dakota is 25.35. In contrast in California where most wear masks the infection rate is 5.36 and NY is 3.44. The per capita case rate (cases per 100,000 people), according to the CDC, is 11,000 for North Dakota, 9,800  for South Dakota, 3,450 for California and 3,400 for NY. Now let's do a thought experiment: What would happen if California and NY adopted the anti-mask attitudes of North and South Dakota? Cases would skyrocket and because of the population densities in those states many people would die. So I would change "the virus is still spreading, therefore masks don't work!!!" to: "the virus is still spreading, and will spread even more if people don't wear masks!!!"

 

 

None of us can say what the infection rate would be if there was no masking. Any statement in that regard is an assumption.

 

Test positivity rates are not as illustrative as you might think. Consider two cases:

 

1.) A state where only people that show the symptoms of covid are tested.

 

2.) A state where people are periodically and routinely tested for their work or to attend school.

 

It could certainly be true that state 1 would have a much higher positivity rate than 2, while state 2 might have a higher infection rate. If you're only testing symptomatic people, you would expect that a higher percentage would come up positive because you've selected for them, as opposed to doing more random unselective testing.

 

A good example - I get tested where I work once per week for the last four months. I've never had symptoms of covid and I've never come up positive. I therefore help lower my state's positivity rate.

 

Now which state do you reckon has employers more likely to require periodic testing? NY or SD? I bet they aren't testing those oil field workers unless they get sick. But I bet you anyone that has to show up in a office in NYC has a pretty good chance of getting tested periodically.

 

You really have to look at this data more than superficially.

 

What we can say is that once widespread masking was initiated it did not dramatically reduce the infection rate. So maybe mask work, but maybe not so well as we would like.

Edited by Daniel Cooper, 09 December 2020 - 01:46 AM.