1036 replies to this topic

[Daniel Cooper]

 

A real respirator like the 3M 7502 with 2291 filters should be lot more comfortable and effective than what you're probably wearing (a mask with earloops and without valves). Hoods and helmets like the BioVYZR and MicroClimate AIR might be even more comfortable (except in the Summer perhaps), but I don't know how effective they are.

 

Are you really suggesting I'd be more comfortable with this thing on my face?

 

 

And aren't exhalation valves bad? They substantially defeat blocking viruses in the egressing direction. 

Edited by Daniel Cooper, 06 January 2021 - 02:36 PM.

[Mind]

Fauci was correct in the beginning. He clearly pointed out why widespread masking of the general public would not work. This was the general consensus, backed up by decades of studies, until the guidance flipped (without concrete evidence) sometime in the late Spring of last year. Masks have not stopped the spread anywhere in the world. Anyone claiming otherwise has not looked at any data or even around their own community. Even in Thailand, masks are not stopping the spread, as they are getting hundreds of new cases per day recently.

 

One could surmise that masking has slowed the spread, but this is not provable.

 

Based upon the data, it seems only extremely restrictive lockdowns (or the blockading of small island nations) has had a provable affect on the spread of this respiratory virus.

[Daniel Cooper]

I guess the bottom line for me is this:

 

[gamesguru]

At the risk of being called pedantic or stubborn, might I suggest that the 2nd spike would naturally have been greater due the virus infiltrating a greater portion of the country (every rural area today, vs. just NYC and a few hot spots in April)?  It seems logical enough that as the virus takes hold in more places, and before herd immunity starts to take effect, that things would obey the exponential part of the logistic curve and be potentially much worse in the 2nd flu season than the first. As long as we're drawing conclusions, let's do it with a balanced review of the evidence.

 

I can definitely see circumstantial evidence pointing in the direction of your view, but to call it "the bottom line" seems prematurely dismissive of what is widely accepted to be true.

 

No one said P100 respirator, there are KN94 respirators that are very comfortable. If people are going to use single-ply bandanas over their nose or plexiglass shields without a mask, then sure perhaps some regulation would improve outcomes.

 

Thailand is a country of nearly 70 million and have yet to boast 10k cases. To suggest masks haven't helped them is ridiculous.  Masks are known to help; they are used all over Asia during flu season out of respect and common sense and to great effect. Very few studies have investigated the effects of diligent mask use on influenza transmission, naturally, as people are lazy and the infection in that case is considered less serious.

 

The CDC initially opposed them out of the "keep calm carry on" and "don't use masks, our supply chain can barely supply the hospitals now" mantras. It wasn't out of any meditated meta-analysis that masks are useless, the CDC is too subservient for that, and if they were smart enough to investigate, they would have simply found the opposite: that the literature strongly suggests masks' utility^{[1][2][3][4][5][6]}

[Daniel Cooper]

Well, when I called it the "bottom line for me", I'm saying this one graphic is a pretty good encapsulation of my position, not that this is the end of the discussion.

 

And if masking is what drove the infection rate down as spring arrived, it should have kept it down as we moved into the fall.  After all, the virus had thoroughly infiltrated Italy and other Western European countries by the arrival of summer.  

 

And to be clear, I'm not saying that masks don't work at all.  I'm saying I don't think they work as well as their proponents believe, and I absolutely don't believe they caused the decline in new infections from March/April on. I believe that was mainly a seasonal effect as illustrated by what happened this fall.  

 

What I think does work is if you caught this very very early and implemented extreme social distancing (nearly absolute lockdowns), extensive testing, and shutting your borders and then only opening them after you had a testing mechanism in place for people coming in.  But, I suspect that you had to do this before you had some critical mass of "seed patients". Once the virus achieved a foothold in a population by having enough infected people running about, those measures were unlikely to be able to win the day.  I think this is what happened in South Korea. I don't doubt their extensive mask wearing has helped, but I don't think that alone would be near enough to explain their fantastic success.

 

Also, let's revisit Germany.  We thought that Germany was doing something fundamentally different and better than the rest of Europe. But, if you'll look at their infection rates now they look a lot like the rest of Europe. So I see no evidence that they are really different than the countries around them. What I think happened is that Germany was for some reason seeded with much fewer initial cases in the Dec - Feb time frame, unlike her neighbors. Why I haven't a clue. But I think covid failed to reach critical mass before spring started which started driving the infection rate down. Unfortunately for Germany, I think they had a low level of transmission going in the background through spring and summer so that when we went into fall there was a sufficient base of covid cases that it was well positioned to break out with the changing weather.  I think the same thing happened in some more remote area of the US like North Dakota.  In fact, if you'll look at the graphs for covid deaths for Germany and North Dakota they look similar.

 

I think there was a race going on early this year in each county - how many initial cases were you seeded with from Dec - Feb, were you successful in shutting your borders and tracking those cases down, and if not was your initial infected population small enough that you didn't reach critical mass before spring came in and slowed everything down.

 

That's my speculation but it matches the data I think.

 

[Florin]

Are you really suggesting I'd be more comfortable with this thing on my face?
 

 
And aren't exhalation valves bad? They substantially defeat blocking viruses in the egressing direction.

 
Yes, and it's fairly comfortable. There are no ear loops that can chaf the ears. The silicone gasket seals to the face a lot better than any other kind of respirator or mask. The valve opening can be covered by a piece of cloth, but it won't affect its function much.
 
Those filters aren't that great, though. Here's the same respirator with better filters:

[Florin]

Even in Thailand, masks are not stopping the spread, as they are getting hundreds of new cases per day recently.

 
Aren't you tired of beating up strawmen and stomping on mole hills? No one claimed masks are perfect, but they're a lot better than no masks. And I don't doubt the possibility that masks will be less effective with more contagious variants of the virus.
 
As for seasonality, it doesn't seem to have affected Asia all that much either.

Edited by Florin, 06 January 2021 - 08:30 PM.

[Hip]

I would bet that if everyone were issued with one of these professional silicone respirator masks, and laws were passed that obliged everyone to wear them in public (except asthmatics, etc), then the coronavirus pandemic would end within weeks. 

 

During WW2, everyone in the UK was issued with a full-face rubber gas mask, in case of chemical warfare attack. How is it that back in the 1940s, it was logistically possible to issue the entire country with such rubber face masks, but nobody today any country has been able to supply their populace with adequate respirator protection? We are now actually far more efficient at manufacturing than we were in the 1940s, yet we cannot seem to issue the populace with respirators.

 

This pandemic is only a mild one. Without doubt we will be hit with much nastier pandemics in future — terrible pathogens that kill say 30% of people, like smallpox did. If we cannot learn from this lesson, then it is going to be carnage and chaos when a real nasty pandemic hits.

[Florin]

The threshold/seed idea seems plausible, until you look at the rest of Asia.

 

The increase in deaths in SK might be due to the more contagious variant. If they don't shut their borders, I expect other countries in Asia to see the same increase.

[Florin]

I would bet that if everyone were issued with one of these professional silicone respirator masks, and laws were passed that obliged everyone to wear them in public (except asthmatics, etc), then the coronavirus pandemic would end within weeks.

 
That's what I thought too, but since a lot of people seem to continue to attend private gatherings without masks, respirators might not end the pandemic so quickly. If nearly everyone thought the risk was higher, then yeah, they probably wouldn't mix with other households, at least not maskless or respiratorless.
 

During WW2, everyone in the UK was issued with a full-face rubber gas mask, in case of chemical warfare attack. How is it that back in the 1940s, it was logistically possible to issue the entire country with such rubber face masks, but nobody today any country has been able to supply their populace with adequate respirator protection? We are now actually far more efficient at manufacturing than we were in the 1940s, yet we cannot seem to issue the populace with respirators.
 
This pandemic is only a mild one. Without doubt we will be hit with much nastier pandemics in future — terrible pathogens that kill say 30% of people, like smallpox did. If we cannot learn from this lesson, then it is going to be carnage and chaos when a real nasty pandemic hits.

Exactly. If we don't use respirators for this pandemic, almost no one is going to be prepared for deadlier pandemics.

[Daniel Cooper]

Looking at your graph - are you telling me that people in India are more religiously wearing masks than Europe and the US?  Because I work with a few Indian nationals and they tell me that mask wearing hasn't really caught on back home.  As does this article from the end of last September.
 
Survey says 90% Indians aware, but only 44% wearing a mask; discomfort key reason for non-compliance
 
That would seem to run counter to your argument.

Edited by Daniel Cooper, 06 January 2021 - 10:12 PM.

[Florin]

Looking at your graph - are you telling me that people in India are more religiously wearing masks than Europe and the US?  Because I work with a few Indian nationals and they tell me that mask wearing hasn't really caught on back home.  As does this article from the end of last September.
 
Survey says 90% Indians aware, but only 44% wearing a mask; discomfort key reason for non-compliance
 
That would seem to run counter to your argument.

 

Not quite. Compliance stats might not be that accurate. For instance, another source places compliance at between 64 to 73 percent.

 

https://covid19.heal...k-use&tab=trend

 

Another factor is that the Asian variant of the virus seems a lot less contagious.

 

The secret formula in India and Asia in general (with some exceptions such as SK and Japan) seems to = decent (but not necessarily great) mask wearing + a less contagious virus.

 

Also, there's zero evidence of seasonality.

Edited by Florin, 06 January 2021 - 10:30 PM.

[pamojja]

Also, there's zero evidence of seasonality.

Seasonality is perfectly fitting with the latitude India is in:

 Screenshot_20210105-124217.png   212.1KB   0 downloads

[Florin]

I guess the bottom line for me is this:

 

 

The more contagious variant perhaps?

[Florin]

Seasonality is perfectly fitting with the latitude India is in:

Screenshot_20210105-124217.png

 

So why is there an absence of any huge increase in Covid cases and deaths in India or Asia?

[Hip]

Does anyone know whether the particle filters fitted to these silicone respirator dust masks — which are normally used to stop dust getting into the lungs during DIY, building work, etc — are also able to stop viral particles, like N95 or FFP2 filters do?

 

My Google-fu seems to be poor today, as I cannot find any information about whether professional silicone respirator dust masks are good for stopping viruses.

 

 

I would like to find a silicone respirator mask which is more comfortable, and closer fitting. The problem I find with standard medical surgical masks as well as N95 respirator masks is the poor fitting at the bridge of your nose. Most masks and respirators have a metal nose strip which you are supposed to bend to the shape of your nose, but I find it hard to get a perfect fit. Plus the metal strip is usually flimsy, so it quickly bends out of shape.

 

I wear glasses, and on cold days, my out-breath escapes through the poor fitting area between my nose and the edge of my N95 respirator mask, misting up my glasses. Having misted glasses is annoying in itself, but also it means that I am not 100% protected, as not all the air is passing through the filter: some is getting in and out via the poor fit to my nose.

 

 

Another thing I've noticed is that if I have some stubble (because I have not shaved for a couple of days), then the mask cannot make a perfect hermetic seal with my face, due to the short stubble. This is quite noticeable when I am out walking on cold days, when the temperature is close to freezing, because as you breathe in, you can actually feel the cold air on your face, streaming in along the edges of the mask, where the mask cannot get a good seal because of the facial hair. But this is only an issue if you have not shaved and have a few days of stubble.

 

I'd like to get hold of a more professional, more comfortable and more effective mask.

Edited by Hip, 07 January 2021 - 12:04 AM.

[Hip]

Also, there's zero evidence of seasonality.

 

I thought there was some evidence of seasonality, due to the fact that Australia had a huge peak of coronavirus deaths in July/August/Sept, which is winter in Australia, but summertime in the northern hemisphere. See the Australian Worldometer. That's one example of a seasonal effect.

Edited by Hip, 07 January 2021 - 12:03 AM.

[Dorian Grey]

Does anyone know whether the particle filters fitted to these silicone respirator dust masks — which are normally used to stop dust getting into the lungs during DIY, building work, etc — are also able to stop viral particles, like N95 or FFP2 filters do?

 

My Google-fu seems to be poor today, as I cannot find any information about whether professional silicone respirator dust masks are good for stopping viruses.

 

 

I would like to find a silicone respirator mask which is more comfortable, and closer fitting. The problem I find with standard medical surgical masks as well as N95 respirator masks is the poor fitting at the bridge of your nose. Most masks and respirators have a metal nose strip which you are supposed to bend to the shape of your nose, but I find it hard to get a perfect fit. Plus the metal strip is usually flimsy, so it quickly bends out of shape.

 

I wear glasses, and on cold days, my out-breath escapes through the poor fitting area between my nose and the edge of my N95 respirator mask, misting up my glasses. Having misted glasses is annoying in itself, but also it means that I am not 100% protected, as not all the air is passing through the filter: some is getting in and out via the poor fit to my nose.

 

 

Another thing I've noticed is that if I have some stubble (because I have not shaved for a couple of days), then the mask cannot make a perfect hermetic seal with my face, due to the short stubble. This is quite noticeable when I am out walking on cold days, when the temperature is close to freezing, because as you breathe in, you can actually feel the cold air on your face, streaming in along the edges of the mask, where the mask cannot get a good seal because of the facial hair. But this is only an issue if you have not shaved and have a few days of stubble.

 

I'd like to get hold of a more professional, more comfortable and more effective mask.

 

My girlfriend works in a local hospital where COVID exposure is common.  She says most of the nurses & doctors wear an N-95 with an additional surgical mask tied over the N-95 to hold it tight to their faces.  

 

A proper surgical mask does not have the ear loops, but "ties" (upper & lower) that you can pull tight & tie in a bow (for reuse); the upper one ties at the crown of your head and the lower one around the base of the skull.  

 

The combination of the difficult to fit N-95 with the surgical mask that can be tied tight to the N-95 / face seem to work well together.  Can't help but think a silicone mask will invariably leak a bit if you've got stubble.  Don't know if a combo N-95 with surgical mask on top might seal better, but reckon it would.  

Attached Files

•  ProperMask.jpg   17.41KB   0 downloads

Edited by Dorian Grey, 07 January 2021 - 02:56 AM.

[Hip]

My girlfriend works in a local hospital where COVID exposure is common.  She says most of the nurses & doctors wear an N-95 with an additional surgical mask tied over the N-95 to hold it tight to their faces.  

 

A proper surgical mask does not have the ear loops, but "ties" (upper & lower) that you can pull tight & tie in a bow (for reuse); the upper one ties at the crown of your head and the lower one around the base of the skull.  

 

The combination of the difficult to fit N-95 with the surgical mask that can be tied tight to the N-95 / face seem to work well together.  Can't help but think a silicone mask will invariably leak a bit if you've got stubble.  Don't know if a combo N-95 with surgical mask on top might seal better, but reckon it would.  

 

Makes sense to wear both.

 

I agree that even silicone is likely not going to work properly if you have stubble. Only solution is to shave.

 

I notice from the silicone respirator images posted by Florin above that these seem to show slightly more of the face than surgical masks and N95 respirators. That I think is important, because much of human communication is via facial expression, so the more of the face you can show the better.

[Florin]

Does anyone know whether the particle filters fitted to these silicone respirator dust masks — which are normally used to stop dust getting into the lungs during DIY, building work, etc — are also able to stop viral particles, like N95 or FFP2 filters do?
 
My Google-fu seems to be poor today, as I cannot find any information about whether professional silicone respirator dust masks are good for stopping viruses.

This has been discussed-to-death earlier in this thread. The short answer is "yes," and in fact, reusable/elastomeric respirators are a lot better than N95s, because they last forever, provide a superior seal, have better filtration capabilities, and are more comfortable. The only downside is that these kinds of respirators have exhalation valves which means that they won't filter your breath as well as the N95s that don't have valves. If everyone was wearing them, this wouldn't even be a downside, with a few exceptions like if you were a surgeon.
 

I would like to find a silicone respirator mask which is more comfortable, and closer fitting. The problem I find with standard medical surgical masks as well as N95 respirator masks is the poor fitting at the bridge of your nose. Most masks and respirators have a metal nose strip which you are supposed to bend to the shape of your nose, but I find it hard to get a perfect fit. Plus the metal strip is usually flimsy, so it quickly bends out of shape.
 
I wear glasses, and on cold days, my out-breath escapes through the poor fitting area between my nose and the edge of my N95 respirator mask, misting up my glasses. Having misted glasses is annoying in itself, but also it means that I am not 100% protected, as not all the air is passing through the filter: some is getting in and out via the poor fit to my nose.

There are ways to jury-rig masks or glasses to reduce the fogging problem.

 

https://www.consumer...a-mask/#glasses
 

Another thing I've noticed is that if I have some stubble (because I have not shaved for a couple of days), then the mask cannot make a perfect hermetic seal with my face, due to the short stubble. This is quite noticeable when I am out walking on cold days, when the temperature is close to freezing, because as you breathe in, you can actually feel the cold air on your face, streaming in along the edges of the mask, where the mask cannot get a good seal because of the facial hair. But this is only an issue if you have not shaved and have a few days of stubble.

Shave.

Edited by Florin, 07 January 2021 - 03:19 AM.

[Hip]

One reason masks are not be as effective as we would like may be because we have not done anything about eye transmission. The eyes consist of mucous membranes, just like the nose and mouth, so viral particles hanging in the air may well be able to infect someone by landing in their eyes. 

 

Back at the beginning of the pandemic, there was a lot of talk about the eyes as a route of transmission; but I have not heard much about this possibility more recently. Though one study published in Sept 2020 observed that people who wear glasses for much of the day have a lower incidence of COVID-19, suggesting that eye coverings do offer some protection.

 

So maybe this is where we are falling short: we are getting people to wear masks, but not enforcing eye coverings.

Edited by Hip, 07 January 2021 - 03:19 AM.

[Florin]

The combination of the difficult to fit N-95 with the surgical mask that can be tied tight to the N-95 / face seem to work well together.  Can't help but think a silicone mask will invariably leak a bit if you've got stubble.  Don't know if a combo N-95 with surgical mask on top might seal better, but reckon it would.  

 

That combo won't seal any better; the reason that they're using it is to protect the N95 from being damaged by liquids or to protect non-COVID patients if they're using N95s with valves.

 

A good seal requires men to shave or get something like a PAPR (or the other bubble boy respirators after they're proven to be effective) which is kind of overkill.

Edited by Florin, 07 January 2021 - 03:33 AM.

[Florin]

It's been speculated that around 16% of cases might be traced to eye infections, but it's probably hard to prove anything definitive.

 

Yes, eye coverings are a good idea but using good face coverings (especially respirators) is far more important, especially outside of something like a hospital. That's why eye coverings aren't mentioned as often.

Edited by Florin, 07 January 2021 - 03:46 AM.

[Hip]

This has been discussed-to-death earlier in this thread. The short answer is "yes," and in fact, reusable/elastomeric respirators are a lot better than N95s, because they last forever, provide a superior seal, have better filtration capabilities, and are more comfortable. 

 

Just went through this entire thread, but could not find where silicone dust masks were compared to N95 masks.

 

As you know, N95 is a specification: it blocks 95% of particles that are 0.3 microns in size or larger.

 

However, when I look at the silicone respirator section on Amazon, I can't see any specifications regarding blocking particles down to a certain micron size.

 

Very little info is given about the nature of the filters employed on these dust respirator masks. So when considering which dust mask to buy, there is no guidance as to which one has the best filters, and no info on how those filters compare to N95 filters.

[Florin]

Just went through this entire thread, but could not find where silicone dust masks were compared to N95 masks.

 

As you know, N95 is a specification: it blocks 95% of particles that are 0.3 microns in size or larger.

 

However, when I look at the silicone respirator section on Amazon, I can't see any specifications regarding blocking particles down to a certain micron size.

 

Very little info is given about the nature of the filters employed on these dust respirator masks. So when considering which dust mask to buy, there is no guidance as to which one has the best filters, and no info on how those filters compare to N95 filters.

 

I didn't mention anything much about comparing disposable with reusable N95s, because as you mentioned, it's a standard; the filters and facepieces (the thing that the filters attach to) of the reusable respirators are tested to those standards. However, I did link to evidence for the effectiveness of the N95 and N100 standards at filtering out coronavirus twice (here and here, and here's the direct link), but I can see how this can still be a little confusing.

 

So, let's try to clear up the confusion. Reusable, elastomeric respirators use filters and facepieces compliant with either the N90, N99, or N100 standards and are often manufactured by the same companies that make the disposable N95 respirators. The 'P' in "P100" just indicates an additional resistance to oil particles. So, any reusable respirator paired with P100 filters is better in terms of filtration capability by definition. The seal is also superior, because it's harder to get a good seal with disposable respirators due to the use of stiffer material, and the seal that you do get will degrade over time. Comfort can be subjective, but most don't seem to want to go back to disposables after using reusables. 3M produces probably the best (in terms of breathability) N100 particulate filters ever made, the 2291 and possibly the 7093. There are also reusable respirators with speech diaphragms like the Honeywell North RU8500 series but comfort might suffer a bit compared to 3M respirators.

 

Understanding respiratory protection options in Healthcare: The Overlooked Elastomeric

https://blogs.cdc.go...6/elastomerics/

 

Reusable Elastomeric Respirators in Health Care: Considerations for Routine and Surge Use.
https://www.ncbi.nlm...ooks/NBK540072/

 

Reusable respirators protect doctors and nurses against coronavirus, they aren't in the national stockpile

https://www.usatoday...tor/5118669002/

 

They evoke Darth Vader, but these masks may save your doctor’s life
https://www.chicagot...atcm-story.html

 

3M filters and facepieces

https://multimedia.3...863-2-HR_R2.pdf

https://multimedia.3...nd-brochure.pdf

https://multimedia.3...uct-catalog.pdf

Edited by Florin, 07 January 2021 - 06:28 AM.

[pamojja]

So why is there an absence of any huge increase in Covid cases and deaths in India or Asia?

Why?

 PSX_20210107_121652.jpg   53.6KB   0 downloads

Can't imagine a more symetrical seasonal in- and decrease as in India. Almost like Mt. Kailash. Peaking with the height of the rainy season.

Last time in India (Feb.-March '20) I was asked by a local MD for a robust Nebulizer from the West. Because during the rainy season each year respiratory illness becomes the largest problem. And Indian-build nebulizers alledgedly don't work well enough for non-stop treatments of so many patients lasting months. (Also western providers weren't sure theirs would last non-stop any longer in the hot and humid conditions there..)

Usually 120.000 die in India each year of flu and pneumonia complications. This years its been almost 150.000 with Covid until now. Second only to the US with double that (also in positive tested: 10 vs. 20 million).

Edited by pamojja, 07 January 2021 - 11:30 AM.

[Daniel Cooper]

The more contagious variant perhaps?

 

There's no evidence that the new variant is any any way dominate outside the UK.

 

And we're only seeing the first new variant cases in the US, yet we took the same uptick at exactly the same time as Europe.

[Hip]

Reusable, elastomeric respirators use filters and facepieces compliant with either the N90, N99, or N100 standards and are often manufactured by the same companies that make the disposable N95 respirators. The 'P' in "P100" just indicates an additional resistance to oil particles. So, any reusable respirator paired with P100 filters is better in terms of filtration capability by definition. 

 

 

Thanks for your detailed reply, it's much appreciated. I did not know that the filters in dust masks are designated as P100. 

 

So for viruses and bacteria, you say P100 filters are more effective than N95 filters. This study I found confirms that, saying that P100 is better at filtering viruses than N95.

 

Interestingly though, this study found that because P100 filters typically have more resistance to air flow than N95 filters, if there is any leakage around the mask edges due to a poor fit, the P100 actually lets in more leaked (unfiltered) air than the N95, because of the higher suction pressure created by the higher air resistance of P100s.

 

And if P100 filters typically have more resistance to air flow than N95 filters, that might make breathing slightly more difficult with a P100, unless you can find a P100 filter which is designed for lower air resistance.

 

 

 

 

Note: the US P95, P99 and P100 respirator dust filter ratings are equivalent to the European P1, P2 and P3 ratings, according to a comment on Reddit.

Edited by Hip, 07 January 2021 - 03:58 PM.

[Florin]

Why?

PSX_20210107_121652.jpg

Can't imagine a more symetrical seasonal in- and decrease as in India. Almost like Mt. Kailash. Peaking with the height of the rainy season.

Last time in India (Feb.-March '20) I was asked by a local MD for a robust Nebulizer from the West. Because during the rainy season each year respiratory illness becomes the largest problem. And Indian-build nebulizers alledgedly don't work well enough for non-stop treatments of so many patients lasting months. (Also western providers weren't sure theirs would last non-stop any longer in the hot and humid conditions there..)

 

Do you think India is located in the Southern Hemisphere? No? In that case, this is the opposite prediction of what seasonality would indicate based on temps.

 

If you're referring to humidity, that's different, and I'd like to see some stats about that.

Edited by Florin, 08 January 2021 - 12:13 AM.

[Florin]

There's no evidence that the new variant is any any way dominate outside the UK.

 

And we're only seeing the first new variant cases in the US, yet we took the same uptick at exactly the same time as Europe.

 

Where there's smoke....

 

In the US, we have the less contagious Asian variants on the West Coast, the older, more contagious European variants from the East Coast, the even more contagious UK variant, and a bunch of Southern and Midwest States that had a delay in the spread due to distance and low density. The contagion wave sweeps the Coasts first, the South in the middle of Summer due to poor compliance, and then the Midwest a little later also due to poor compliance. The more contagious strains then reach the West Coast. Private gatherings supercharge the more contagious variants on the Coasts but not nearly so much as in the poor-compliance States.

 

In Europe, it could be similar story: a combination of the UK variant and/or private gatherings.

 

Maybe there's a role for seasonality to play in making the virus a bit more contagious during private gatherings, but on the other hand, it has a lot of trouble explaining the Summer peak in the US, and the fact Asia doesn't resemble the US or Europe.