1036 replies to this topic

[Florin]

If you'll look at the graphs for Europe you'll see that cases start their uptick in later September/early October. And Thanksgiving isn't really a thing there.

 

Variant spread.

[Daniel Cooper]

This has already been discussed to death. There's no seasonality in Asia, and the flu has disappeared. So, the increase in cases and deaths was probably caused mostly by the holidays and more contagious variants.

 

 

As I've explained before, those RCTs are poor evidence as that meta study itself admitted.

 

While masks might not work really well now, they seemed to have worked well enough before.

 

Anyway, it's time to switch to respirators. This should have been done as soon as the manufacturing situation improved. The switch should have happened before the holidays but didn't, and as a result, the pandmeic got worse.

 

Can everyone at least agree that recommending the use of respirators instead of masks is a good idea?

 

So as evidence comes in that masks aren't working, the only possible conclusion is that we must wear better masks, or multiple masks, or wear them more intensely and with more feeling?

 

This reminds me of a failed government program, where the failure is not taken as showing that the approach is flawed, but only that enough resources were not devoted to it.

[Daniel Cooper]

Variant spread.

 

Not in Continental Europe at the end of September.  Unless you've got evidence otherwise.

 

The supposition that masks work has simply become unfalsifiable to a certain contingent.  When you reach this point, you have departed the realm of science and have entered the realm of religion. It has become an article of faith.

[Florin]

Not in Continental Europe at the end of September.  Unless you've got evidence otherwise.

 
First detection of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein N501 mutation in Italy in August, 2020

https://doi.org/10.1...3099(21)00007-4
 

The supposition that masks work has simply become unfalsifiable to a certain contingent.  When you reach this point, you have departed the realm of science and have entered the realm of religion. It has become an article of faith.

Let's assume this is true: that it's impossible to ever know whether masks really work. We're still left with strong mechanistic and empirical reasons to supposed that they should work, although not as well as respirators. This isn't religion, it's just common sense.

[Daniel Cooper]

 
First detection of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein N501 mutation in Italy in August, 2020

https://doi.org/10.1...3099(21)00007-4
 

Let's assume this is true: that it's impossible to ever know whether masks really work. We're still left with strong mechanistic and empirical reasons to supposed that they should work, although not as well as respirators. This isn't religion, it's just common sense.

 

So let's follow your line of reasoning shall we?

 

1.) Masks were highly effective against the variants of covid in circulation from April till early September.

 

2.) A new N501 mutation may have been circulating in Italy in August.

 

3.) All across Europe covid infection rates started to spike sharply towards the middle to end of September.

 

4.) You assert that this spike was due to the new N501 mutation.

 

5.) It would therefore follow that almost all of the new cases being recorded would be the N501 mutation.

 

6.) Thus making the N501 mutation by far the dominate variant at that time in Europe.

 

So are you asserting that N501 went from "may have been circulating in Italy in August 2020" to being the dominate variant throughout Europe in the space of a month or two? Because that is the only scenario consistent with the fall spike being caused by the N501 mutation.

[geo12the]

 

 

The supposition that masks work has simply become unfalsifiable to a certain contingent.  When you reach this point, you have departed the realm of science and have entered the realm of religion. It has become an article of faith.

 

Every winter a very high % of people I know get sick. Most with colds, some with flu. According to the CDC the average person will catch 2 colds every year. This winter I know no one who has caught a cold. Not a single person. What does that tell me? That the precautionary steps taken against COVID (masking, hand washing, social distancing etc.) are effective against colds (most colds are caused by Coronaviruses) and flu. The only people I know who have gotten sick have gotten COVID. And that number is pretty low (1 friend, 1 nephew and a few elderly parents of friends). What does that suggest? COVID is more contagious that cold and the flu. Since COVID is more contagious than colds and flu what is keeping COVID from infecting as many people as colds and flu would in a normal year? The precautions people are taking- masking, hand washing, social distancing etc. We cant tease apart the effect the individual precautions have.  But what is a mask? A barrier that may trap virus particles. You may say believing masks work is a religion. But I think denying they work smacks to me of contrarian anti-authoritarian virtue signaling.  I will continue to wear my mask when I am out and about.

[Hebbeh]

So as evidence comes in that masks aren't working, the only possible conclusion is that we must wear better masks, or multiple masks, or wear them more intensely and with more feeling?

 

This reminds me of a failed government program, where the failure is not taken as showing that the approach is flawed, but only that enough resources were not devoted to it.

 

If you're so convinced that masks don't work and are a useless effort, why do you admit to wearing a mask?  Why do you not practice what you preach?  Has not your mask worked for you?

[Daniel Cooper]

If you're so convinced that masks don't work and are a useless effort, why do you admit to wearing a mask?  Why do you not practice what you preach?  Has not your mask worked for you?

 

Well for one, I am legally required to wear a mask. 

 

Are you suggesting that I break the law?

[Hebbeh]

Well for one, I am legally required to wear a mask. 

 

Are you suggesting that I break the law?

 

That's the best you can do?  And it's not a law.  And it hasn't stopped any of the other anti maskers.  Want to try again?

[Hebbeh]

This Reduces COVID Exposure by 90%, Says CDC (msn.com)

 

This Reduces COVID Exposure by 90%, Says CDC

 

The Centers for Disease Control&Prevention on Wednesday updated its advice about wearing face masks to slow the spread of COVID-19, and the agency could have boiled it down to an ad slogan: Fit matters. The new advice resulted from a study the CDC conducted to see if mask effectiveness could be improved. The agency said it found that making simple changes, like wearing two masks or cinching a mask more snugly to the face, could protect mask wearers from about 90% of the infectious respiratory droplets that cause COVID-19. Read on—and to ensure your health and the health of others, don't miss these Sure Signs You've Already Had Coronavirus.

 

 

Four new mask strategies detailed

The new advice could effectively double protection against COVID-19. Health officials like Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious-disease expert, had previously estimated that wearing a single face mask could reduce the risk of contracting coronavirus by 50% to 80%. 

 

rest at link

[Daniel Cooper]

I'll post this again -

 

If masks caused the decrease in early spring, then why did we get the increase in early fall? The answer is not "the N501 mutation" because that would mean that all the cases in excess of the low numbers in the summer would have almost exclusively been the N501 mutation, making it the dominate strain.

 

Show me evidence that N501 was dominate in continental in the fall of last year.

 

 

[Daniel Cooper]

That's the best you can do?  And it's not a law.  And it hasn't stopped any of the other anti maskers.  Want to try again?

 

Are you arguing semantics between a law and an ordnance? Because in my area, it is a statewide ordnance that masks must be worn in public. To which I see nearly universal compliance.

 

And do you presume to know what is and isn't the law/ordnance in my area?

[Daniel Cooper]

That's the best you can do?  And it's not a law.  And it hasn't stopped any of the other anti maskers.  Want to try again?

 

Tell you what Hebbeh, I'm going to concede that the fact that wearing a mask is a state wide ordnance isn't really the primary reason I wear one. Your question got me to ask myself, "why do I wear a mask" and it really comes down to two reasons:

 

1.) I've looked at the evidence and it is my opinion that masks are probably only minimally effective. But that's just my opinion and I might be wrong. I'm not going to put someone in danger based on my own opinion.

 

2.) A lot of the public does think that masks work. I have enough common courtesy that I have no desire to make them uncomfortable or fearful by being near them without a mask, even if they don't actually work.

 

That's it. That's the main reasons I wear a mask.

[pamojja]

I have to wear a FPP2 mask at my work (with homeless) since last spring. After looking through the available science I don't believe they work significant at all.

5 co-workers with masks and all got mild covid. None of the clients (not wearing mask most of the day). Still don't know even one ending in an ICU with it. Though one really doesn't meet anymore, I would have heard if one of my relatives many in the endangered age-group, would have.

Since I've got a COPD diagnosis with an average oxygen saturation of 94% I could ask for an exemption from wearing mask. The reason I still don't do is because psychiatric illness is rampant in the population. People believe in things not supported by science to alleviate their fears, which I still think many times better than prescription medication.

Not wearing masks would unneccessarily agitate, even with an medical exemption. Instead I grew a beard to get more air, and before this get prohibited too.

Edited by pamojja, 12 February 2021 - 03:06 PM.

[geo12the]

I'll post this again -

 

If masks caused the decrease in early spring, then why did we get the increase in early fall? The answer is not "the N501 mutation" because that would mean that all the cases in excess of the low numbers in the summer would have almost exclusively been the N501 mutation, making it the dominate strain.

 

Show me evidence that N501 was dominate in continental in the fall of last year.

 

Probably many factors play into this that are difficult to tease apart. But does not prove masks are ineffective. This I found interesting:

 

https://www.nature.c...598-021-81419-w

[Daniel Cooper]

Probably many factors play into this that are difficult to tease apart. But does not prove masks are ineffective. This I found interesting:

 

https://www.nature.c...598-021-81419-w

 

Could be Vitamin D, but of course that's also a seasonal effect.

 

I'm just pointing out the discrepancy of claiming that the decline of covid cases in the spring was the result of mask wearing, but then ignoring the subsequent rise in covid cases in the fall.  It's this selective latching on to evidence. Anything that tends to support mask wearing is touted, anything that tends to disprove the effectiveness of mask wearing is explained away in any fashion possible, no matter how dubious.  

[Florin]

So are you asserting that N501 went from "may have been circulating in Italy in August 2020" to being the dominate variant throughout Europe in the space of a month or two? Because that is the only scenario consistent with the fall spike being caused by the N501 mutation.

 

Weren't you the same guy that was arguing that the coronavirus was present in Europe a long time before it was noticed and started to cause havoc?

[Florin]

Could be Vitamin D, but of course that's also a seasonal effect.

But what about Asia and the flu?

Edited by Florin, 12 February 2021 - 07:59 PM.

[Daniel Cooper]

Weren't you the same guy that was arguing that the coronavirus was present in Europe a long time before it was noticed and started to cause havoc?

 
Indeed I am. I argued that there were relatively small numbers of cases in Europe months before they officially arrived at the beginning of the year.
 
But you're not arguing about small numbers of N501 variants. Your argument boils down to this:



Almost all of the "excess cases" beyond the low level established in the summer would have to be N501 mutations if the massive spike in the fall was caused by the new variant.

Now, I'm going to suggest that if that were the case, i.e. most of the hundreds of thousands of infections across Europe suddenly were N501, someone would have noticed.

Your argument just doesn't hold water.


 

[Mind]

Even New York Times contributors are getting tired mask and hygiene "absolutism" that is not based upon solid science or practical experience over the past year.

 

https://www.nytimes....-president.html

[Hebbeh]

Researchers propose that humidity from masks may lessen severity of COVID-19: Study compares how different face masks affect humidity inside the mask -- ScienceDaily

 

Researchers propose that humidity from masks may lessen severity of COVID-19

 

Masks help protect the people wearing them from getting or spreading SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, but now researchers from the National Institutes of Health have added evidence for yet another potential benefit for wearers: The humidity created inside the mask may help combat respiratory diseases such as COVID-19.

 

The study, led by researchers in the NIH's National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK), found that face masks substantially increase the humidity in the air that the mask-wearer breathes in. This higher level of humidity in inhaled air, the researchers suggest, could help explain why wearing masks has been linked to lower disease severity in people infected with SARS-CoV-2, because hydration of the respiratory tract is known to benefit the immune system. The study published in the Biophysical Journal.

 

"We found that face masks strongly increase the humidity in inhaled air and propose that the resulting hydration of the respiratory tract could be responsible for the documented finding that links lower COVID-19 disease severity to wearing a mask," said the study's lead author, Adriaan Bax, Ph.D., NIH Distinguished Investigator. "High levels of humidity have been shown to mitigate severity of the flu, and it may be applicable to severity of COVID-19 through a similar mechanism."

 

High levels of humidity can limit the spread of a virus to the lungs by promoting mucociliary clearance (MCC), a defense mechanism that removes mucus ? and potentially harmful particles within the mucus ? from the lungs. High levels of humidity can also bolster the immune system by producing special proteins, called interferons, that fight against viruses ? a process known as the interferon response. Low levels of humidity have been shown to impair both MCC and the interferon response, which may be one reason why people are likelier to get respiratory infections in cold weather.

 

The study tested four common types of masks: an N95 mask, a three-ply disposable surgical mask, a two-ply cotton-polyester mask, and a heavy cotton mask. The researchers measured the level of humidity by having a volunteer breathe into a sealed steel box. When the person wore no mask, the water vapor of the exhaled breath filled the box, leading to a rapid increase in humidity inside the box.

 

When the person wore a mask, the buildup of humidity inside the box greatly decreased, due to most of the water vapor remaining in the mask, becoming condensed, and being re-inhaled. To ensure no leakage, the masks were tightly fitted against the volunteer's face using high-density foam rubber. Measurements were taken at three different air temperatures, ranging from about 46 to 98 degrees Fahrenheit.

 

The results showed that all four masks increased the level of humidity of inhaled air, but to varying degrees. At lower temperatures, the humidifying effects of all masks greatly increased. At all temperatures, the thick cotton mask led to the most increased level of humidity.

 

"The increased level of humidity is something most mask-wearers probably felt without being able to recognize, and without realizing that this humidity might actually be good for them," Bax said.

 

While the current study did not examine respiratory droplets, it does offer more evidence as to why masks are essential to battling COVID-19.

 

This research supports the importance of mask-wearing as a simple, yet effective, way to protect the people around us and to protect ourselves from respiratory infection, especially during these winter months when susceptibility to these viruses increases.

 

rest at link

[Florin]

Almost all of the "excess cases" beyond the low level established in the summer would have to be N501 mutations if the massive spike in the fall was caused by the new variant.

Now, I'm going to suggest that if that were the case, i.e. most of the hundreds of thousands of infections across Europe suddenly were N501, someone would have noticed.

 

You're assuming someone would have noticed, but the N501 report seems to suggest that there's no massive monitoring effort in Europe. So, there might easily be even more variants out there that no one knows about.

 

Maybe it's just a coincidence that all of the known variants emerged right before the massive increase in cases and deaths.

 

But these "coincidences" are starting to pile up: no flu anywhere and no seasonality (or more contagious variants) in Asia.

[Daniel Cooper]

You're assuming someone would have noticed, but the N501 report seems to suggest that there's no massive monitoring effort in Europe. So, there might easily be even more variants out there that no one knows about.
 
Maybe it's just a coincidence that all of the known variants emerged right before the massive increase in cases and deaths.
 
But these "coincidences" are starting to pile up: no flu anywhere and no seasonality (or more contagious variants) in Asia.

 
What you're suggesting is that the uptick in the fall was caused by a new variant or variants that aren't just a little more virulent, they're much more virulent. And, that nobody's really noticed it.
 
All in order to hang on to the belief that masks work, and that there will be no dissent from that view. 
 
This is an article of religion at this point. This is literally the knot you've tied yourself up in. You can't accept any seasonal aspect of the infection rate, because it undermines your mask argument. And, you've now got to fine tune covid variants so that the initial variants are very well controlled by masks, but the new variants are so massively more virulent that masks aren't controlling them well at all.

Edited by Daniel Cooper, 13 February 2021 - 05:59 AM.

[Dorian Grey]

Check out this demonstration of single vs double masking in the great outdoors (where on a frosty day you can see your breath).  

 

https://thehighwire....ng-for-dummies/

 

Skip to 2:20 in the clip, or try here: https://ifunny.co/vi...-ovid-ID8yrOWL8

 

See how much vapor you would be exposed to standing 2 feet away.  Then consider how much vapor you'd be exposed to if you simply stood 6 feet away.  

Edited by Dorian Grey, 13 February 2021 - 06:09 AM.

[Florin]

What you're suggesting is that the uptick in the fall was caused by a new variant or variants that aren't just a little more virulent, they're much more virulent. And, that nobody's really noticed it.

 
Here's more evidence for variants in the US which not only might be more contagious (B117 is supposedly 45% more transmissible) but also more deadly:
 

The change is seen in a gene that influences how the virus finds its way into a host's cell, suggesting it could make these variants more contagious — though this hasn't been confirmed....

 

The new variants have been spotted across the country, but it's hard to tell just how prevalent they are or where they began because the U.S. performs genome sequencing on just a tiny fraction of coronavirus test results. And while viruses evolve all the time, the risk is that a new variant could be more contagious or more deadly. This is exactly what happened with the B.1.1.7 strain — nicknamed the "U.K. variant" — that's now spreading rapidly in the U.S. It is estimated to be up to 45 percent more transmissible, and up to 70 percent more deadly. Experts warn this new variant could be dominant in the U.S. by March.

Surveillance is still a problem like just like it is in Europe.

 

And you're still ignoring the lack of apparent seasonality in Asia and the disappearance of the flu.

 

Study finds 7 new 'worrying' coronavirus variants in the U.S.
https://news.yahoo.c...-130100654.html

[Hebbeh]

Former Trump deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger details "grave misstep" in pandemic response - CBS News

 

Former Trump deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger says that it was a "grave misstep" for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to wait until April 2020 to advise the American public to begin wearing masks as a means to protect against the deadly coronavirus pandemic. In an excerpt of an interview set to air on "Face the Nation" this Sunday, Pottinger told moderator Margaret Brennan that the "mask misstep cost us dearly."

"It was the one tool that was widely available, at least homemade, you know, cotton masks were widely available," Pottinger said. "It was the one effective, widely available tool that we had in the arsenal to deal with this...It was a grave misstep."

 

 

rest at link

[Hebbeh]

https://www.msn.com/...ise/ar-BB1dWtnS

Face-Mask Skepticism Fades in Sweden as Infection Rates Rise

(Bloomberg) -- Authorities in Stockholm and a number of other regions across Sweden are abandoning their earlier skepticism and advising people to rely more on face masks, as the country braces for a third wave of coronavirus infections.

The development marks a reversal of Sweden’s previous doubts regarding face coverings, and coincides with an increase in transmission rates. On Tuesday, Stockholm authorities recommended the use of masks on public transport, not just in rush hour but at all times. They also want coverings to be used in shops and in offices.

The number of new coronavirus cases rose 27% last week in the Swedish capital, which not that long ago saw its intensive-care resources pushed to the brink. The relentlessness of the virus has driven Sweden’s government to reconsider its hands-off approach, and parliament enacted legislation last month to allow tougher pandemic restrictions.

Sweden’s stance on face masks has long been controversial, with state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell repeatedly questioning their efficacy. But after almost a year of intense debate, such coverings are set to become more widespread in Scandinavia’s most populous nation.

“We need to increase face-mask wearing a lot,” infection control officer Maria Rotzen Ostlund said. “However, disposable face masks are only a complement, and the most important thing is to keep a distance.”

Sweden’s Mask Debate...
Sweden’s Public Health Agency has long questioned the science behind face masks as an effective tool during a pandemic, and warned that such coverings risk creating a false sense of security that might lead people to grow complacent on social-distancing guidelines. But that view has come under fire from critics, including Sweden’s Royal Academy of Sciences, which published a report to support the use of face masks as a meaningful way to stop transmission.

[Dorian Grey]

“However, disposable face masks are only a complement, and the most important thing is to keep a distance.”

 

"such coverings risk creating a false sense of security that might lead people to grow complacent on social-distancing guidelines"

 

BINGO!  We Have a WINNER!  This is exactly what I've seen in mask compliant California, recently decimated in our fully locked-down mask-mandated super-surge.  The science boffins have convinced us that masks are effective shields against plague, when in fact:

 

https://ifunny.co/vi...-ovid-ID8yrOWL8

 

Masked Californians are almost universally ignoring social distancing due to overconfidence in their magic shields, and we have paid dearly for this error in judgement. 

 

Stand back dude, I can smell what you had for lunch!  Oh well...  We live & learn.  

 

 

[Hebbeh]

In regards to California, there is this:

https://www.latimes....e-and-dangerous

California’s coronavirus strain looks increasingly dangerous: ‘The devil is already here’

A coronavirus variant that emerged in mid-2020 and surged to become the dominant strain in California not only spreads more readily than its predecessors, but also evades antibodies generated by COVID-19 vaccines or prior infection and is associated with severe illness and death, researchers said.

In a study that helps explain the state’s dramatic surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths — and portends further trouble ahead — scientists at UC San Francisco said the cluster of mutations that characterizes the homegrown strain should mark it as a “variant of concern” on par with those from the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil.

“The devil is already here,” said Dr. Charles Chiu, who led the UCSF team of geneticists, epidemiologists, statisticians and other scientists in a wide-ranging analysis of the new variant, which they call B.1.427/B.1.429. “I wish it were different. But the science is the science.”

Californians, along with the rest of the country, have been bracing for the rise of a more transmissible coronavirus variant from the U.K. known as B.1.1.7. But they should know that a rival strain that is probably just as worrisome has already settled in, and will probably account for 90% of the state’s infections by the end of next month, said Chiu, an infectious diseases researcher and physician.

Edited by Hebbeh, 23 February 2021 - 05:07 PM.

[Dorian Grey]

All the more reason the world should learn from our experience & mistakes with this virus if we wish to avoid a new variant super-surge.  

 

Masks are not magic shields!  Social distancing is the Prime Directive in reducing COVID transmission!