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COVID vaccine outcomes

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#31 Gal220

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Posted 17 March 2021 - 12:28 AM

Some interesting stories out there about vulnerability between the 1st and 2nd jab due to perhaps an impaired immune system.

No one really wants to talk about it though, its like an accepted necessary evil, there will be some with a really negative reaction.  The question is how much since there really isnt good tracking

 

https://unitynewsnet...ight-after-jab/

http://www.nakim.org...ic.php?t=270812

https://www.israelna...ews.aspx/297051

 

 


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#32 Droplet

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Posted 17 March 2021 - 08:28 AM

If the 1st shot is so effective and most of the worst side effects are coming from the 2nd shot, is it worth getting the 2nd?  Just something to consider

 

Thank you for clearing that up and explaining this view. :) 
 



#33 Gal220

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Posted 17 March 2021 - 01:00 PM

Some interesting stories out there about vulnerability between the 1st and 2nd jab due to perhaps an impaired immune system.

No one really wants to talk about it though, its like an accepted necessary evil, there will be some with a really negative reaction.  The question is how much since there really isnt good tracking

 

https://unitynewsnet...ight-after-jab/

http://www.nakim.org...ic.php?t=270812

https://www.israelna...ews.aspx/297051

 

Maybe a dose or two of ivermectin/H202 therapy would be wise if the 1st shot does compromise your immunity for a week or two.  Hopefully there is more information on this.


Edited by Gal220, 17 March 2021 - 01:01 PM.


#34 pamojja

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Posted 17 March 2021 - 02:54 PM

I do statistical analysis as one of my jobs and I've seen firsthand how people can do all kinds of statistical tricks to prove their hypothesis or disprove a hypothesis they don't like. In fact though statistics is very important it can be misused. Most people don't understand statistics and I have been at meetings where people misuse statistics to support a hypothesis but the audience is so confused by statistics their eyes glaze over and they believe anything the speaker is saying. I encourage people to LOOK AT THE DATA.


Now you're shocking me even more. As someone doing statistics at his job you should know that the usual trick of pharmaceutical companies is to advertise their agents by solely mentioning the more optimistic looking relative risk reduction. But omiting the more realistic perspective absolut risk reduction. Exactly why this calculation has to be included in any conclusive risk/benefit analysis (and FDA's own guidelines).
 

The data from the Moderna trial speaks for itself and is easy to digest without complicated statistical tricks. People can draw their own conclusions:

Control group: 14,073 people
Vaccine group: 14,134 people
Control group number of people who got sick: 185
Vaccine group number of people who got sick: 11
Control group number of people who got severe illness: 30
Vaccine group number of people who got severe illness: 0

My sensible reasoning tells me that the data is pretty strong, regardless of what some skeptics Absolute risk reduction calculations claim



For absolute vs. relative risk calculation no statistical tricks are needed, just mathematics. Taking as example your numbers:

14073 (total control group) - 30 (with severe illness) = 14034 / 140.73 = 99.73 (percentage unaffected)
14134 (total vaccine group) - 0 (with severe illness)= 100 % (percentage unaffected)

100 % - 99,73 % = 0.27 % absolute risk reduction for severe illness

 

14073 -185 = 13888 / 140.73 = 89.69 %
14134 - 11 = 14123 / 141.34 = 99.92 %

99.92 % -89.63 % = 10.29 % absolute risk reduction for mild illness

 

I don't do mathematics for my living, and a stupid calculation mistake could have sneaked in. But in such a case everyone simply could point out the mistake in the calculation. And correct it. Instead of obviously with an agenda denigrating the absolute risk reduction number as a cheap trick.


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#35 joelcairo

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Posted 17 March 2021 - 04:40 PM

Relying only on the "absolute" risk reduction is absurd because the virus spreads exponentially from person to person and if unchecked everyone will eventually get it.

 

You're citing a study where the risk of severe illness was reduced to ZERO, and using mumbo jumbo to imply that the vaccine only made a microscopic difference.

 


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#36 geo12the

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Posted 17 March 2021 - 04:45 PM

Now you're shocking me even more. As someone doing statistics at his job you should know that the usual trick of pharmaceutical companies is to advertise their agents by solely mentioning the more optimistic looking relative risk reduction. But omiting the more realistic perspective absolut risk reduction. Exactly why this calculation has to be included in any conclusive risk/benefit analysis (and FDA's own guidelines).
 



For absolute vs. relative risk calculation no statistical tricks are needed, just mathematics. Taking as example your numbers:

14073 (total control group) - 30 (with severe illness) = 14034 / 140.73 = 99.73 (percentage unaffected)
14134 (total vaccine group) - 0 (with severe illness)= 100 % (percentage unaffected)

100 % - 99,73 % = 0.27 % absolute risk reduction for severe illness

 

14073 -185 = 13888 / 140.73 = 89.69 %
14134 - 11 = 14123 / 141.34 = 99.92 %

99.92 % -89.63 % = 10.29 % absolute risk reduction for mild illness

 

I don't do mathematics for my living, and a stupid calculation mistake could have sneaked in. But in such a case everyone simply could point out the mistake in the calculation. And correct it. Instead of obviously with an agenda denigrating the absolute risk reduction number as a cheap trick.

 

Bottom line is that the data show the vaccine works! You are just arguing about different formulas for demonstrating efficacy numbers. The data show the vaccine works. If these data were for HCQ or Ivermectin some people here would be in ecstasy. People don't want to see reality, they just want to root for their favorite hypothesis and virtue-signal how anti-establishment they are.  


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#37 zorba990

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Posted 19 March 2021 - 11:32 PM

Bottom line is that the data show the vaccine works! You are just arguing about different formulas for demonstrating efficacy numbers. The data show the vaccine works. If these data were for HCQ or Ivermectin some people here would be in ecstasy. People don't want to see reality, they just want to root for their favorite hypothesis and virtue-signal how anti-establishment they are.


We should expect to see steadily decreasing infections and deaths in countries that were early adopters of the vaccines. Is this what the statistics show? How is France doing?

#38 Hebbeh

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Posted 20 March 2021 - 12:47 AM

We should expect to see steadily decreasing infections and deaths in countries that were early adopters of the vaccines. Is this what the statistics show? How is France doing?

 

A better indicator currently would be Israel with roughly 50% vaccinated.  Pretty much all other countries have a very low % of population vaccinated so far.  The problem in the US is that according to polls, more than 50% claim they won't vaccinate no matter what.  And most experts predict that we need upwards of 80% vaccinated to possibly reach herd immunity.

 

In Colorado where I live, as of today, they have opened up vaccination to everybody and anybody because they have excess vaccine due to so many refusing.



#39 zorba990

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Posted 20 March 2021 - 02:02 PM

A better indicator currently would be Israel with roughly 50% vaccinated. Pretty much all other countries have a very low % of population vaccinated so far. The problem in the US is that according to polls, more than 50% claim they won't vaccinate no matter what. And most experts predict that we need upwards of 80% vaccinated to possibly reach herd immunity.

In Colorado where I live, as of today, they have opened up vaccination to everybody and anybody because they have excess vaccine due to so many refusing.


https://www.lifesite...ths-researchers
"March 1, 2021 (LifeSiteNews) — While in January a group of independent doctors concluded that experimental COVID-19 vaccines are “not safer” than the virus itself, a new analysis of vaccine-related death rates in Israel demonstrates that this may indeed be the case to dramatic levels.

A re-analysis of published data from the Israeli Health Ministry by Dr. Hervé Seligmann, a member of the faculty of Medicine Emerging Infectious and Tropical Diseases at Aix-Marseille University, and engineer Haim Yativ reveal, in short, that the mRNA experimental vaccine from Pfizer killed “about 40 times more (elderly) people than the disease itself would have killed” during a recent five-week vaccination period. Among the younger class, these numbers are compounded to death rates at 260 times what the COVID-19 virus would have claimed in the given time frame.

While the full mathematical analysis may be found in the article itself, the authors demonstrate how among “those vaccinated and above 65, 0.2 percent … died during the three-week period between doses, hence about 200 among 100,000 vaccinated. This is to be compared to the 4.91 dead among 100,000 dying from COVID-19 without vaccination.”

“This scary picture also extends to those below 65,” the researchers continued. During the five-week vaccination process “0.05 percent, meaning 50 among 100,000, died. This is to be compared to the 0.19 per 100,000 dying from COVID-19 (who) are not vaccinated … Hence the death rate of this age group increased by 260 (times) during this five-week period of the vaccination process, as compared to their natural COVID-19 death rate.”

As reported by IsraelNationalNews (INN), Seligmann is of Israeli-Luxembourg nationality, has a biology degree from Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and has written more than 100 scientific publications. INN reports the researchers “have no conflicts or interests other than having children in Israel.”

Can't imagine this is being well received:

"In the past weeks, Israel’s government made headlines when they a “green pass” system, allowing people who have been injected to receive a green code, which then grants them entry into places such as entertainment and leisure facilities."
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#40 zorba990

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Posted 20 March 2021 - 03:19 PM

A possible explanation for Vaccine related complications:
https://www.mdpi.com...393X/9/1/36/htm

"It is generally thought that the sole function of viral membrane fusion proteins is to allow the viruses to bind to the host cells for the purpose of viral entry into the cells, so that the genetic materials can be released and the viral replication and amplification can take place. However, recent observations suggest that the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein can by itself trigger cell signaling that can lead to various biological processes. It is reasonable to assume that such events, in some cases, result in the pathogenesis of certain diseases.
Our laboratory only tested the effects of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in lung vascular cells and those implicated in the development of PAH. However, this protein may also affect the cells of systemic and coronary vasculatures, eliciting other cardiovascular diseases such as coronary artery disease, systemic hypertension, and stroke. In addition to cardiovascular cells, other cells that express ACE2 have the potential to be affected by the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, which may cause adverse pathological events. Thus, it is important to consider the possibility that the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein produced by the new COVID-19 vaccines triggers cell signaling events that promote PAH, other cardiovascular complications, and/or complications in other tissues/organs in certain individuals (Figure 3). We will need to monitor carefully the long-term consequences of COVID-19 vaccines that introduce the spike protein into the human body. Furthermore, while human data on the possible long-term consequences of spike protein-based COVID-19 vaccines will not be available soon, it is imperative that appropriate experimental animal models are employed as soon as possible to ensure that the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein does not elicit any signs of the pathogenesis of PAH or any other chronic pathological conditions."
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#41 pamojja

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Posted 20 March 2021 - 04:10 PM

, it is imperative that appropriate experimental animal models are employed as soon as possible to ensure that the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein does not elicit any signs of the pathogenesis of PAH or any other chronic pathological conditions."


This article talks about a study to that effect, though only invitro: https://www.wodarg.c...nation-ignored/
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#42 Gal220

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Posted 20 March 2021 - 07:59 PM

A better indicator currently would be Israel with roughly 50% vaccinated.  Pretty much all other countries have a very low % of population vaccinated so far.  The problem in the US is that according to polls, more than 50% claim they won't vaccinate no matter what.  And most experts predict that we need upwards of 80% vaccinated to possibly reach herd immunity.

 

In Colorado where I live, as of today, they have opened up vaccination to everybody and anybody because they have excess vaccine due to so many refusing.

 i dont plan to get the vax myself, but latest estimate is around 70%


Edited by Gal220, 20 March 2021 - 08:49 PM.


#43 Hebbeh

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Posted 20 March 2021 - 08:30 PM

 i dont myself, but latest estimate is around 70%

 

According to the CDC (updated daily), the US is at 13% with both doses and 24% with only 1 dose.

 

https://covid.cdc.go...r/#vaccinations

 

At Least One Dose 23.9%
Fully Vaccinated 13%


#44 Gal220

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Posted 20 March 2021 - 08:47 PM

https://www.lifesite...ths-researchers
"March 1, 2021 (LifeSiteNews) — While in January a group of independent doctors concluded that experimental COVID-19 vaccines are “not safer” than the virus itself, a new analysis of vaccine-related death rates in Israel demonstrates that this may indeed be the case to dramatic levels.

Can't imagine this is being well received:

"In the past weeks, Israel’s government made headlines when they a “green pass” system, allowing people who have been injected to receive a green code, which then grants them entry into places such as entertainment and leisure facilities."

A few outlets have picked up on this data.  If you want to see the latest information, its in the 2nd link in the top post. Here is their latest request to the health ministry

They have responded to various fact checkers who have challenged their conclusions.

 

Im not sure this will ever get the proper scrutiny, just label it antivax and move on. IMO taking ivermectin prior to the shot seems like a good idea.


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#45 Gal220

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Posted 20 March 2021 - 08:52 PM

 

According to the CDC (updated daily), the US is at 13% with both doses and 24% with only 1 dose.

The article I read wasnt the hard data, just a poll.  Guess they are way off.



#46 zorba990

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Posted 20 March 2021 - 10:25 PM

A few outlets have picked up on this data. If you want to see the latest information, its in the 2nd link in the top post. Here is their latest request to the health ministry
They have responded to various fact checkers who have challenged their conclusions.

Im not sure this will ever get the proper scrutiny, just label it antivax and move on. IMO taking ivermectin prior to the shot seems like a good idea.


Whatever the scientific reality is, it should be faced. Even if it is inconvenient.
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#47 joelcairo

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Posted 21 March 2021 - 01:29 AM

Life Site News and Nakim appear to be highly unreliable sources of factual information.


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#48 geo12the

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Posted 21 March 2021 - 03:39 PM

A huge huge number of people are getting the vaccines. And in the natural course of life people, especially older ones, may get sick and die regardless of whether they are vaccinated or not. You need to look what is going on when you compare the placebo groups.  



#49 joelcairo

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Posted 21 March 2021 - 04:37 PM

Exactly. The anecdotes being collected don't shed light on anything.

 

Last week people were concerned about reactions to the AstraZeneca vaccine after 17 million dosed had been given in Europe. People only live for 25-30,000 days, so with this many vaccinations, statistically you would expect that  600+ people will die the day they are vaccinated, for reasons wholly unrelated to the vaccine. Given that it's mainly older people getting vaccinated, the number would really be somewhere in the thousands of people dying the same day, tens of thousands dying within a week.

 

That's just the way large numbers work. It's a little surprising someone hasn't been hit by a meteor while being vaccinated.


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#50 Gal220

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Posted 22 March 2021 - 03:26 PM

Whatever the scientific reality is, it should be faced. Even if it is inconvenient.

Thats why the VAERS is public, there is a conflict of interest.  If it is discovered they hastily rolled out the vaccine, there would be a political price to pay.

Nakim are claiming mortality is 40x higher than previous years, and many of these are vaccinated people.    The health ministry it seems is going to claim this is just covid deaths(and maybe they are right), that the vaccine did not contribute with a weakened immune.  I doubt it will be investigated.

 

I dont agree with Nakim's conclusion to halt vaccination, just take necessary precautions.  If not Ivermectin, an Israeli company, Sonovia, has a zinc mask on the market that neutralizes the virus.  Available on Amazon right now.


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#51 joelcairo

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Posted 22 March 2021 - 11:29 PM

Nakim are claiming mortality is 40x higher than previous years...

 

This is obviously just nonsensical. That Nakim website is manipulating statistics beyond all recognition to produce ludicrous conclusions. I guess within a few months Israel will either be COVID-free, or there will be no one left alive. Get the popcorn.


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#52 Gal220

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Posted 23 March 2021 - 12:09 AM

This is obviously just nonsensical. That Nakim website is manipulating statistics beyond all recognition to produce ludicrous conclusions. I guess within a few months Israel will either be COVID-free, or there will be no one left alive. Get the popcorn.

 

Right, it is just the period after jabs, eventually your immunity does recover.  I dont think you can manipulate the overall mortality for this time period.  Was it excessive due to a weakened immune? I dont know, but its easy enough to take some extra precautions like a zinc mask.  

 

Its seems they have narrowed down the AZ link to blood clots, especially in females.  It is rare, but I would be taking some natto with it or choosing a different vax.


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#53 Gal220

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Posted 24 March 2021 - 01:05 PM

One surgeon suggesting to wait if you have had covid recently

 

I think it’s a dramatic error on part of public health officials to try to put this vaccine into a one-size-fits-all paradigm … We’re going to take this problem we have with the COVID-19 pandemic, where a half-percent of the population is susceptible to dying, and compound it by causing totally avoidable harm by vaccinating people who are already infected … the signal is deafening, the people who are having complications or adverse events are the people who have recently or are currently or previously infected with COVID. I don’t think we can ignore this.
Viral antigens persist in the tissues of the naturally infected for months. When the vaccine is used too early after a natural infection, or worse during an active infection, the vaccine force activates a powerful immune response that attacks the tissues where the natural viral antigens are persisting. This, I suggest, is the cause of the high level of adverse events and, likely deaths, we are seeing in the recently infected following vaccination.

 

Pretty much the same thing the Nakim people are claiming, but not due to a weakened immunity.


Edited by Gal220, 24 March 2021 - 01:29 PM.

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#54 geo12the

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Posted 24 March 2021 - 03:29 PM

One surgeon suggesting to wait if you have had covid recently

 

 

Pretty much the same thing the Nakim people are claiming, but not due to a weakened immunity.

 

Quote

I think it’s a dramatic error on part of public health officials to try to put this vaccine into a one-size-fits-all paradigm … We’re going to take this problem we have with the COVID-19 pandemic, where a half-percent of the population is susceptible to dying, and compound it by causing totally avoidable harm by vaccinating people who are already infected … the signal is deafening, the people who are having complications or adverse events are the people who have recently or are currently or previously infected with COVID. I don’t think we can ignore this.

Quote

Viral antigens persist in the tissues of the naturally infected for months. When the vaccine is used too early after a natural infection, or worse during an active infection, the vaccine force activates a powerful immune response that attacks the tissues where the natural viral antigens are persisting. This, I suggest, is the cause of the high level of adverse events and, likely deaths, we are seeing in the recently infected following vaccination.

 

They talked about this on This week in virology (TWIV) a few weeks ago. The consensus of the this week in TWIV nerds is that there is no need to wait if you have been recently infected. 

 

AND on the other hand the vaccine may helps some long-haulers:

 

https://www.webmd.co...er-vaccination 

 

It may be a bit like the shingles vaccine which helps with hidden herpes virus from childhood infections. In these long haulers there may be virus lurking in some of their cells causing them misery. The vaccine may help that. 


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#55 joelcairo

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 01:07 AM

That article about the surgeon is from the Children's Health Defense, which is headed by anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Let's please stick to posting articles from scholarly and reliable publications, not sensationalist tabloid newspapers and other biased sources.

 

I remember when Trump got COVID-19, and the general opinion then was that he should probably wait a few months before being vaccinated. There's nothing inherently controversial about that idea, and I have no opinion on it. The problem arises when you look at the CHD website, and see that all they're interested in doing is amplifying vaccine skepticism however they can.


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#56 Gal220

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 04:44 AM

That article about the surgeon is from the Children's Health Defense, which is headed by anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Let's please stick to posting articles from scholarly and reliable publications, not sensationalist tabloid newspapers and other biased sources.

 

I remember when Trump got COVID-19, and the general opinion then was that he should probably wait a few months before being vaccinated. There's nothing inherently controversial about that idea, and I have no opinion on it. The problem arises when you look at the CHD website, and see that all they're interested in doing is amplifying vaccine skepticism however they can.

Personally i have no problem reading from pro-vax or anti-vax sites. 

 

The article covers an interview the surgeon did with Tucker Carlson, they also reached out to him to get additional info which you arent going to get on any other site.

 

The surgeon is pro-vax, he is suggesting the vax effort would be more successful if the injuries were cut down which he believes is caused by an aggressive immune response to covid in various tissues if recently infected.

 

I know its crazy... but we have to think for ourselves, those anti-vaxers might have some good info.


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#57 Gal220

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 03:14 PM

They talked about this on This week in virology (TWIV) a few weeks ago. The consensus of the this week in TWIV nerds is that there is no need to wait if you have been recently infected. 

 

They may be completely right on this, but since your immunity from being infected is going to last at least several months, I would play it safe and wait as the immunologist suggests.

https://www.foxnews....e-size-fits-all



#58 joelcairo

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 06:14 PM

He's not an immunologist, he's a retired heart surgeon who has no more specialized training in this area than any other GP


Edited by joelcairo, 25 March 2021 - 06:16 PM.

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#59 Gal220

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 07:22 PM

He's not an immunologist, he's a retired heart surgeon who has no more specialized training in this area than any other GP

 

Im not saying his opinion is absolute, regardless of his pedigree.  He does have a background in it though.

 

Dr. Noorchashm's laboratory is focused on the regulation of T lymphocyte homeostasis and activation at the population level, as it relates to transplant rejection, autoimmune diabetes and normal immune function

 

. He completed a post-doctoral fellowship focusing on transplantation immunobiology and autoimmunity in the Harrison Department of Surgical Research at the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine.

 

But whoever is right, I would err on the side of caution and wait.  If it were me, I would wait and take the sputnik shot.


Edited by Gal220, 25 March 2021 - 07:25 PM.

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#60 joelcairo

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 08:41 PM

OK but transplant autoimmunity is a very specialized concern and has almost no overlap with viral disease. I don't know everything this doctor has done in his career, or why he thinks he is qualified to advise people to ignore CDC guidelines, I'm just suggesting that people shouldn't get their health info from Tucker Carlson of all people. He's an enthusiastic source of misinformation about COVID-19 and basically everything else as well.


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