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Aging and thermodynamic biological age

aging theory thermodynamics entropy biological age

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#31 albedo

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Posted 06 November 2024 - 01:12 PM

The main equation in the text, refer to it for the explication of symbols and interpretation of this model of aging and supportive data:

attachicon.gif Screenshot 2024-11-03 103234.png

 

In other words, where the effects of aging are coming from:

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Will the model be adopted more broadly in the community and will more evidence support it? At the end of the paper and since its pre-print version, the authors quoted a number of additional supportive research:

 

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#32 Castiel

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Posted 21 November 2024 - 07:20 AM

I am not sure this is an fruitful line of enquiry. Of course a body cannot be maintained against entropy indefinitely. But entropy doesn't care if it wins in 10 years or 1000 years, but that makes a big difference to me. 

There are trees lasting thousands of years, and some organisms last for tens of thousands of years.

 

Humans have even created ways to store information reliably for billions of years.   I do believe indefinite extension is possible.

 

Regards entropy and aging, a similar theory existed before, the rate of living or free radical theory of aging.  This theory was later superseded by the membrane pacemaker theory of aging.  Membrane pacemaker theory of aging can explain the exceptions to the free radical theory of aging well.

 

As can be seen calorie restriction lowers membrane peroxidation index, making membranes more resistant to damage.  High metabolism species like birds that have higher than expected lifespan for their metabolic rate, also have more resistant membranes.  And when looking at their membrane peroxidation index their maximum lifespan is as expected from membrane resilience.

Metabolism and longevity: Is there a role for membrane fatty acids?

https://academic.oup...943?login=false

 

If the peroxidation index is low enough for the given metabolic rate, even multicentury agelessness is possible.

The extreme longevity of Arctica islandica is associated with increased peroxidation resistance in mitochondrial membranes

https://pubmed.ncbi....h.gov/22708840/

 

There are two avenues of approach that can be taken based on this information, finding substances that alter peroxidation index regulation  such as CR mimetics, or other compounds that change gene regulation of peroxidation index.  

 

Or alternative find molecules that protect membranes from damage, such as astaxanthin which did well in the ITP.  What's more some sources suggest the blood levels achieved in ITP are similar to those attainable by humans with a few 10s of mg.   Further research is needed, but it is not inconceivable that higher doses of astaxanthin could have even bigger effects on lifespan.  


Edited by Castiel, 21 November 2024 - 07:21 AM.

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#33 albedo

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Posted 07 December 2024 - 12:23 PM

It is also time in the community to consider entropy not only as damage accumulation but also as characterization of the system aging network guiding us to understand what it goes wrong and also to a better model and possible intervention. I am of the opinion that w/o theory we go basically blind. E.g. see DOI: 10.1093/gerona/glae021, DOI: 10.1063/5.0105843

 



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#34 albedo

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Posted 13 December 2024 - 09:54 AM

Fresh as preprint (ref [7] across full text is the one originally posted)

 

Discovery of Thermodynamic Control Variables that Independently Regulate Healthspan and Maximum Lifespan
Kirill A. Denisov, Jan Gruber, Peter O. Fedichev

bioRxiv 2024.12.01.626230; doi: https://doi.org/10.1...24.12.01.626230

 

 

"The question, ”Can aging be modified, delayed, or reversed?” has profound social and economic
implications for rapidly aging societies today. Interventions, ideally, would intercept functional
decline and extend healthspan by delaying late-life morbidity (known as ”squaring the curve”).
These have proven elusive, but examples of differential aging in the animal world abound, suggesting
aging itself is a malleable process. We present a novel multi-scale theoretical framework
for entropic aging, and apply it to recently published DNA methylation data from 348 evolutionarily
distant mammalian species. Our analysis identified modules or correlated DNA methylation
changes associated with reversible pathway activation in key biological processes. We discovered
a single species-dependent scaling factor controlling the magnitude of fluctuations across biological
pathways. It acts as the organism’s ”effective temperature”, quantifying intrinsic biological noise
within networks and is unrelated to physical body temperature. Furthermore, we find a distinct
stochastic damage signature and an associated extreme value (Gumbel) distribution of activation
barriers controlling site-specific damage rates of individual CpG sites. This implies that aging is
driven by rare, high-energy transitions on rugged energy landscape, most likely simultaneous and
hence practically irreversible failures in highly redundant systems. While the overall rate of damage
accumulation and hence the maximum lifespan does not depend on the effective temperature driving
the noise in leading pathways, effective temperature does influence both initial mortality rate and
the mortality rate doubling time – thereby shaping the survival curve. Lowering effective temperature
must, therefore, be a promising Geroscience strategy, aimed directly at squaring the curve of
aging. The example shows that targeting the thermodynamic forces driving mammalian aging may
provide powerful strategies for the development of truly meaningful interventions to combat aging
in humans.
"

 

"...Our analysis suggests that critical actuarial aging parameters—
including the initial mortality rate and the
Gompertz exponent—are highly sensitive to the effective
temperature, thereby determining the difference between
maximum and average lifespan. Furthermore, targeting
the effective temperature must represent a powerful
strategy to extend healthspan by ”squaring the survival
curve.” Consequently, we advocate for the development
of a new class of longevity therapeutics that target these
thermodynamic forces underlying mammalian aging at
the macroscopic level. We assert that this approach is
the only viable strategy for enabling truly meaningful interventions
to combat aging in humans...
"

 

"...It should be emphasized, however, that reducing effective
temperature does not impact the underlying rate
of aging. Consequently, efforts to extend healthspan
through effective temperature modulation will not inherently
slow the aging process and hence would not intercept
most of the functional decline associated with aging.
Aging in mammals appears to be a thermodynamically
irreversible process relying on the most fundamental biological
mechanisms. Further progress requires the investigation
of biological mechanisms behind thermodynamic
fidelity that could potentially be targeted pharmacologically.
This should open avenues for interventions aimed
at modulating the underlying drivers of mammalian aging
as a meaningful strategy to slow down the aging process

and produce a significant extension of human life..."


Edited by albedo, 13 December 2024 - 10:45 AM.

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#35 albedo

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Posted 26 May 2025 - 03:15 PM

https://www.lifespan...life-extension/



#36 albedo

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Posted 27 May 2025 - 09:03 AM

 

From the previous paper posted here, https://www.longecit...ndpost&p=933399, this is what I understand Dr Fedichev has in mind as target for Level 2 drugs in the lifespan.io interview (see excerpt): bridging the gap between max life span and average life span, aka "squaring the curve", acting on the Teff which quantifies the noise extracted from the data.

 

Attached File  Screenshot 2025-05-27 105443.png   171.08KB   0 downloads

 

"We predict the emergence of a new class of drugs, Level-2 therapies, designed to reduce physiological noise: the random fluctuations that destabilize health as organisms approach the limits of resilience. By damping this noise, these therapies could decouple aging from the onset of diseases, effectively “squaring” the survival curve. In practical terms, Level-2 interventions could add 30-40 years of healthy life by bridging the gap between today’s average lifespan (70-80 years, depending on the country) and the maximum natural lifespan of 120-150 years. However, they would not significantly extend the maximum lifespan itself."
 

What is your view on this approach?



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#37 albedo

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Posted 28 May 2025 - 06:42 AM

Recent new presentations (by P. Fedichev and J. Gruber) on the model related to the OP and following:

 

 

 

 



#38 kench

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Posted 02 July 2025 - 11:51 PM

Thanks for following through on this complex line of theory.

Ending up with a new concept like "effective temperature" seems like it could lead to new understanding and pathways.


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#39 albedo

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Posted 08 September 2025 - 05:11 PM

A new paper just posted on BioRxiv

 

A Minimal Model Explains Aging Regimes and Guides Intervention Strategies
Peter Fedichev, Jan Gruber
bioRxiv 2025.08.25.671954; doi: https://doi.org/10.1...25.08.25.671954
 
"Aging varies widely across species yet exhibits universal statistical regularities, such as Gompertzian
mortality and scaling laws, challenging efforts to link microscopic mechanisms with macroscopic
outcomes. We present a minimal phenomenological model that captures these patterns by
reducing complex physiology to three variables: a dynamic factor characterizing reversible physiological
responses to stress, an entropic damage variable reflecting irreversible information loss, and
a regulatory noise term. This framework reveals two fundamental aging regimes. In stable species,
including humans, aging is driven by linear damage accumulation that gradually erodes resilience,
producing a hyperbolic trajectory toward a maximum lifespan. In unstable species, such as mice and
flies, intrinsic instability drives exponential divergence of biomarkers and mortality. Model predictions
agree with DNA methylation dynamics, biomarker autocorrelation, and survival curves across
taxa. Crucially, this regime-based view informs intervention strategies at three levels: (i) targeting
dynamic hallmarks, (ii) reducing physiological noise, and (iii) slowing or reversing entropic damage—
offering a roadmap from near-term healthspan gains to potential extension of human lifespan
beyond current limits."
 

 


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#40 albedo

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Posted 22 January 2026 - 02:48 PM

Following the ARDD2025 conference in Copenhagen last year, the following YT video (just released), 2x relative key papers (and a lifespan.io account) are the minimal set to understand the interesting work of this team, going on since at least 10 years:

 

https://youtu.be/yEO...X-lke8KS1X1-dcZ

 

https://www.biorxiv.....08.25.671954v3

 

https://www.biorxiv.....12.01.626230v1

 

https://lifespan.io/...-life-extension

 

 

 


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#41 osris

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Posted 14 February 2026 - 07:30 PM

Where Fedichev’s Aging Theory Meets Transcriptional Endurance

 

by ChatGPT

 

 

For much of modern biogerontology, ageing has been framed as an information problem in the narrowest sense: genes mutate, epigenetic marks drift, pathways misfire. The implicit assumption has been that the instructions themselves are progressively corrupted, and that ageing is therefore the sum of innumerable small informational errors.

 

Two lines of work now suggest a deeper, more structural interpretation. One comes from theoretical geroscience, most clearly articulated by Peter Fedichev. The other comes from recent experimental work reported in Nature Aging, showing a length-dependent failure of transcription with age. Together, they point toward the same conclusion: ageing is less about broken instructions, and more about a declining capacity to reliably execute complex biological programs.

 

Fedichev’s core claim: ageing as loss of stability

 

Fedichev approaches ageing as a physicist studying complex, self-repairing systems. In his framework, organisms constantly accumulate small errors, but what determines lifespan is not the existence of errors per se, but whether those errors are corrected faster than they propagate.

 

He distinguishes between two regimes:

 

Unstable systems, where errors amplify exponentially, leading to rapid deterioration (typical of short-lived species like mice).

Stable systems, where errors are largely contained, allowing the organism to persist near equilibrium for long periods (typical of humans).

 

Crucially, Fedichev argues that humans spend most of adult life in this stable regime. Human ageing is therefore not an early runaway collapse, but a slow, largely linear erosion of resilience. What changes with age is not primarily specific pathways, but the restoring force that returns the system to balance after perturbation. Fluctuations grow larger, recovery becomes slower, and stability gradually weakens.

 

Ageing, in this view, is the progressive loss of systemic stamina.

 

The Nature Aging discovery: long programs fail first

 

The recent Nature Aging study approaches the problem from the opposite direction. Instead of asking which genes change with age, it asks whether cells retain the same capacity to express genes of different complexity.

 

Across species and tissues, the answer is strikingly consistent:

 

Short RNA transcripts become more abundant with age.

Long RNA transcripts become progressively depleted.

The effect is widespread and particularly strong in the brain.

 

Long genes are not arbitrary. They disproportionately encode functions related to maintenance, structural integrity, DNA repair, and neuronal organisation. Short genes, by contrast, are often involved in stress responses, inflammation, and immediate survival.

 

The key insight is that long genes require sustained, uninterrupted transcriptional effort. They test the endurance of RNA polymerase, chromatin organisation, energy supply, and coordination with RNA processing. As these capacities weaken, long transcription runs fail more often than short ones.

 

Nothing fundamental has happened to the genes themselves. The system can no longer reliably finish the longest jobs.

 

The shared mechanism: declining execution capacity

 

This is where the convergence becomes clear.

 

Fedichev’s theory predicts that, as stability erodes, complex, slow processes will fail before simple, fast ones. The transcriptional imbalance observed in Nature Aging is exactly that prediction made molecularly concrete.

 

Long transcripts are the transcriptional equivalents of high-complexity, long-timescale programs. Their selective loss is a direct manifestation of weakening error correction, rising noise, and reduced recovery capacity. What appears as “transcriptome imbalance” is, at a deeper level, the system retreating from complexity.

 

This also explains several otherwise puzzling features of the data:

 

Why the effect is global: system-level endurance failures do not respect pathway boundaries.

Why it is conserved across species: complex systems fail in similar ways, regardless of molecular details.

Why neurons are hit hardest: they depend heavily on exceptionally long genes and cannot reset via cell division.

Why the change is gradual: endurance declines linearly long before catastrophic instability appears.

 

Reversibility and its limits

 

One of the most important findings in the Nature Aging work is that multiple lifespan-extending interventions partially restore long-transcript abundance. These interventions are mechanistically diverse, but they share a common feature: they improve the operating conditions of the cell rather than targeting specific genes.

 

This aligns precisely with Fedichev’s theoretical expectations. If ageing were primarily loss of information, restoration would be impossible. If it is loss of stability and access, partial recovery is entirely plausible.

 

At the same time, both frameworks impose realistic limits. Restoring full youthful capacity would require cell-by-cell, error-specific correction at extraordinary resolution. Slowing decline is far easier than reversing it. Negligible senescence is more attainable than true rejuvenation.

 

A shift in how ageing is understood

 

Taken together, these ideas suggest a reframing of ageing:

 

Not as a genome falling apart

Not as a collection of independent molecular failures

But as a system that gradually loses the stamina to sustain long-range maintenance

 

As execution capacity declines, cells default toward short-term survival programs. Inflammation, stress signalling, and loss of proteostasis emerge not as primary causes, but as consequences of a system that can no longer afford complexity.

 

Ageing becomes a narrowing of biological attention span.

 

Conclusion

 

Fedichev’s theory provides the dynamical logic of ageing: a slow loss of stability in a self-correcting system. The Nature Aging discovery reveals where that loss first becomes visible: the selective failure of long, maintenance-heavy transcription.

 

They are not competing explanations operating at different levels. They are the same explanation, seen from two sides of the same system.

 

The instructions largely remain intact. What falters is the system’s ability to reliably carry them out.

 

 

Appendix: Partial Restoration Through Improved System Endurance

 

A central implication shared by Peter Fedichev’s theoretical work and the transcriptional findings reported in Nature Aging is that ageing reflects declining execution capacity rather than wholesale loss of biological information. From this perspective, interventions that partially restore function do so not by correcting specific instructions, but by improving the conditions under which complex biological programs are executed.

 

This appendix situates one supplement stack within that framework. The goal is not to claim reversal of ageing, but to explain why diverse, non-targeted interventions can produce partial restoration of long, maintenance-heavy transcription.

 

1. Restoration is conditional, not instructive

 

Both Fedichev’s model and the transcriptional-length findings converge on a key constraint: long genes are lost from expression not because they are damaged, but because the system increasingly cannot sustain them.

 

Accordingly, restoration does not require:

 

rewriting genes

correcting specific mutations

reprogramming cell identity

 

Instead, it requires improving:

 

energetic reliability

error tolerance during long processes

coordination between transcription, repair, and chromatin state

 

This explains why interventions with very different molecular targets can converge on similar outcomes.

 

2. Energy stability and transcriptional endurance

 

Long transcription runs are among the most energy-sensitive processes in the cell. Any transient shortfall disproportionately aborts long transcripts while leaving short ones unaffected.

 

Niacinamide (NAD+  support)

 

Supports redox balance and DNA repair during transcriptional elongation

Helps maintain RNA polymerase II processivity over long genomic distances

 

Coenzyme Q10

 

Stabilises mitochondrial ATP output

Reduces oxidative stress that causes polymerase stalling

 

ALCAR (Acetyl-L-Carnitine)

 

Improves mitochondrial throughput and acetyl-CoA availability

Indirectly supports chromatin acetylation required for sustained transcription

 

Creatine

 

Buffers ATP fluctuations

Reduces short-lived energy drops that selectively disrupt long transcription runs

 

In the “printer” analogy, these interventions keep the motor running smoothly enough to finish long jobs.

 

3. Reduction of transcription-blocking lesions

 

Length-dependent transcription failure is strongly amplified by DNA lesions and oxidative stress, which disproportionately affect long genes simply by increasing the probability of interruption.

 

Vitamin B12

 

Supports nucleotide metabolism and DNA integrity

Reduces transcription-blocking errors that accumulate with age

 

Vitamin C

 

Scavenges reactive oxygen species

Supports repair enzymes that clear transcriptional obstacles

 

Melatonin

Provides mitochondrial and nuclear antioxidant protection

Lowers background damage that aborts long transcription

 

These do not restore youthful perfection; they lower the ambient “noise floor” that makes long transcription increasingly fragile.

 

4. Chromatin organisation and execution coherence

 

Long genes require not just energy, but sustained chromatin accessibility and coordination with RNA processing machinery.

 

TMG (Trimethylglycine)

 

Supports methylation balance

Helps preserve chromatin organisation needed for long-gene accessibility

 

Vitamin D

 

Influences chromatin state and transcriptional coordination

 

Vitamin K2

 

Supports mitochondrial and nuclear membrane integrity

Indirectly stabilises transcriptional logistics

 

Magnesium glycinate

 

Cofactor for polymerases and nucleic acid interactions

Supports transcriptional fidelity over long sequences

 

Here, the intervention acts not on content, but on the structural conditions that permit complexity.

 

5. Infrastructure and deficiency prevention

 

Complex transcription is unusually sensitive to small, otherwise silent deficiencies.

 

Flaxseed oil or Fish oils

 

Maintains membrane integrity required for nuclear–mitochondrial coordination

 

Wheatgrass, multivitamin, brewers yeast

 

Supply trace cofactors needed across transcription, repair, and RNA processing

Reduce the chance that a single missing component becomes a bottleneck

 

In systems terms, these reduce weak links that disproportionately affect long processes.

 

6. Why this aligns with observed partial restoration

 

The Nature Aging study reports partial restoration of long-transcript abundance under multiple lifespan-extending interventions. That qualifier matters.

 

From the converged framework:

 

Ageing is multi-causal and distributed

Restoration therefore emerges gradually and incompletely

Improvements accumulate statistically rather than deterministically

 

The supplement stack operates exactly in this regime. It does not override ageing’s arrow of time. It improves execution margins—allowing more long programs to finish, more often, for longer.

 

7. What this appendix does not claim

 

Consistent with Fedichev’s theory, this model does not imply:

 

full rejuvenation

reversal of accumulated history

guaranteed lifespan extension

 

It implies something narrower but more defensible: ageing involves loss of access before loss of information, and access can be partially restored by improving system endurance.

 

Takeaway

 

Seen through the convergence of systems theory and transcriptional endurance, the supplement stack functions as a conditional stabiliser. It does not rewrite biology. It improves the odds that long, maintenance-heavy programs—the first casualties of ageing—can still be executed.

 

In that sense, partial restoration is not an anomaly. It is exactly what this model predicts.

 

 



#42 albedo

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Posted 15 February 2026 - 05:09 PM

Matrenok S, Andrianova EL, Avchaciov K, et al. Thermodynamic scaling of canine aging and reversible clock deceleration by a reverse transcriptase inhibitor. bioRxiv. Preprint posted online February 12, 2026. doi:10.64898/2026.02.10.705136

Following the ARDD2025 conference in Copenhagen last year, the following YT video (just released), 2x relative key papers (and a lifespan.io account) are the minimal set to understand the interesting work of this team, going on since at least 10 years:

 

https://youtu.be/yEO...X-lke8KS1X1-dcZ

 

https://www.biorxiv.....08.25.671954v3

 

https://www.biorxiv.....12.01.626230v1

 

https://lifespan.io/...-life-extension

 

And, as experimental validation, I would add this paper just released:

 

Matrenok S, Andrianova EL, Avchaciov K, et al. Thermodynamic scaling of canine aging and reversible clock deceleration by a reverse transcriptase inhibitor. bioRxiv. Preprint posted online February 12, 2026. doi:10.64898/2026.02.10.705136

 

"Aging was tracked in a cohort of 99 “retired” sled dogs over four years to characterize the latent
dynamics of physiological decline. Animals were randomized to receive either placebo or the reverse
transcriptase inhibitor lamivudine for ∼30 months. We employed a variational autoregressive model
to integrate longitudinal blood parameters and DNA methylation (DNAm) profiles. The model defines
Biological Age (BA) as a signature of irreversible damage with Poissonian statistics, a feature
conserved across mammalian scales. Lamivudine modulated age-independent latent variables and
temporarily decelerated the DNAm clock in females, but these effects were reversible upon treatment
discontinuation and did not alter the long-term BA trajectory. Critically, we show that physiological
fluctuations are governed by a single systemic factor – an effective or phenotypic temperature representing
an emergent (macroscopic) property. We show that while the rate of damage accumulation
(the BA slope) is independent of this temperature, actuarial aging parameters (initial mortality
and the Gompertz exponent) are strongly temperature dependent. This supports a model where
mortality arises from effective activation across a protective free energy barrier that erodes with
age. These findings identify phenotypic temperature as an important control variable governing the
kinetics of organism-level failure, offering a compelling target for interventions aimed at extending
healthspan by “squaring” the survival curve."

 

https://www.biorxiv.....02.10.705136v1


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#43 osris

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Posted 16 February 2026 - 05:52 AM

It's a pity long term benefits didn't occur.







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