Life expectancy ranges per decade from 1900 according to ChatGPT:
Posted 28 August 2023 - 11:34 AM
Life expectancy ranges per decade from 1900 according to ChatGPT:
Posted 30 August 2023 - 11:29 AM
What you need to do is adjust these values to remove the effect of infant mortality. For example, in primitive societies (or even in early industrial societies before the introduction of sanitation, etc.) the chance of living past about 8yo was only about 50% (read this somewhere, feel free to get a better estimate)
It is probably reasonable to apply this to 1900.
i.e., 0.5*(4+X) =(31+49)*0.5=40yo (average of death in childhood and death in adulthood given you survive childhood = the average of your life expectancy figures)
therefore X=76yo.
So, if we accept 50% child mortality at 4 years old (picked this as it is halfway between birth and 8)) and that overall average life expectancy in 1900 was 40, then life expectancy given you didn't die as a child is 76yo.
Now this makes lie expectancy improvements since 1900 much less impressive and projections of 100 years+ somewhat laughable. In fact, you could say that outside of reducing child mortality, there have been almost ZERO improvements since 1900.
Go tell ChatGPT to get child mortality figures for each of your years and remove these as I have done.
Posted 10 September 2023 - 01:02 AM
Posted 19 September 2023 - 12:09 PM
ChatGPT is usually an accurate source of information. It might be that regarding making predictions it needs some tweaking.
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