• Log in with Facebook Log in with Twitter Log In with Google      Sign In    
  • Create Account
  LongeCity
              Advocacy & Research for Unlimited Lifespans


Adverts help to support the work of this non-profit organisation. To go ad-free join as a Member.


Photo
* * * * * 5 votes

Average Age of 100 validated Oldest living people


  • Please log in to reply
300 replies to this topic

#121 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 11 October 2007 - 11:34 PM

110.61

(75 supercentenarian)

#122 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 12 October 2007 - 06:16 PM

110.58

(74 superC)

#123 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 14 October 2007 - 06:25 PM

110.61

(75 superC)

sponsored ad

  • Advert

#124 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 18 October 2007 - 02:47 AM

110.64

(76 superC)

#125 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 20 October 2007 - 12:56 AM

110.65

(77 superC)

#126 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 21 October 2007 - 03:23 PM

110.63

(76 superC)

#127 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 25 October 2007 - 10:49 PM

110.62

(77 supercentenarian)

A year ago (Oct. 25, 2006), when I started this topic, the Average Age of 100 validated Oldest living people was 110.73. Today (Oct. 25, 2007) it's 110.62.
According to my definition of my life expectancy, I am about 1 year and 40 days closer to death compare to a year ago (i.e I aged 1.11 years in one year). That's not good!

I'll keep posting in this topic as frequently as I have been posting until the Average Age of 100 validated Oldest living people reaches 111.00 and the number of the living supercentenarians reaches 100. Once this happens I'll update the numbers only once a month.

#128 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 15 November 2007 - 01:14 AM

110.63

(76 superC)

#129 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 17 November 2007 - 08:42 PM

110.59

(75 superC)

#130 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 22 November 2007 - 06:53 PM

110.58

(74 superC)

#131 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 30 November 2007 - 03:05 PM

110.61

(76 superC)

#132 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 18 December 2007 - 02:01 AM

110.59

(74 superC)

#133 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 27 December 2007 - 06:58 AM

110.56

(74 superC)

I'll be gone to Albania for about a month to spend some time with my family and probably I won't be able to update the above numbers for at least a month.
Happy New Year!

#134 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 01 February 2008 - 12:53 AM

110.56

(77 superC)


After doing some peak fittings and extrapolations for the data that grg.org has privided for the years 1972-2006 these are the numbers that I came up for the average age of 100 VOLP for those years.

Average Age of 100 Validated Oldest Living People (1972-2006)

1972 => 104.9
1973 => 105.0
1974 => 104.9
1975 => 105.1
1976 => 105.0
1977 => 105.1
1978 => 105.1
1979 => 106.1
1980 => 107.2
1981 => 107.2
1982 (missing)
1983 (missing)
1984 => 107.9
1985 => 108.1
1986 => 108.9
1987 => 108.9
1988 => 108.9
1989 => 109.0
1990 => 108.9
1991 => 109.2
1992 => 109.9
1993 => 109.9
1994 => 109.9
1995-2005 (missing)
2006 => 110.8

2007 => 110.8

#135 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 05 February 2008 - 01:25 AM

110.55

(76 superC)

#136 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 13 February 2008 - 03:24 AM

110.56

(77 superC)

#137 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 18 February 2008 - 09:17 PM

110.59

(79 superC)

#138 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 20 February 2008 - 12:15 AM

110.60

(80 superC)

#139 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 24 February 2008 - 03:43 AM

110.55

(78 superC)

#140 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 27 February 2008 - 10:10 PM

110.58

(80 superC)

#141 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 04 March 2008 - 03:32 AM

110.62

(81 superC)

#142 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 13 March 2008 - 07:16 PM

110.6 years

Note that I reduced the significant figures to four for being more compact and for better impacting the audience when updating this number (e.g. changing it by 0.1 years increments is more impressive than changing it by 0.01 years increments). If the above number does not change, there will be no update of that number despite the change in the number of the validated living supercentenarians.

#143 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 21 March 2008 - 03:51 AM

110.5 years

#144 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 22 March 2008 - 01:32 AM

110.6 years


(it just went from 110.54 to 110.55 years)

Edited by struct, 22 March 2008 - 01:40 AM.


#145 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 23 March 2008 - 01:24 PM

110.5 years


A 114-years-old woman has died.

#146 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 01 April 2008 - 11:53 PM

110.6 years

#147 AgeVivo

  • Guest, Engineer
  • 2,023 posts
  • 1,532

Posted 10 April 2008 - 08:14 PM

Other fascinating thing:
it is known that, every year, the AVERAGE lifespan in developped countries increases by roughly a quarter
(using recent mortality tables in the UK I get 0.23 more life every year)
(The "average lifespan" increase is in fact not linear and in fact rather exponential)

Your analysis leads to the conclusion that the MAXIMUM lifespan (avg top 100 lifespan in the world) ALSO increases by roughly a quarter every year (0.2278) !!!
This somehow contradicts the general opinion that we are reaching "lifespan rectangularization", i.e. approaching a maximum-lifespan-limit.

#148 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 11 April 2008 - 01:27 AM

110.5 years


Other fascinating thing:
it is known that, every year, the AVERAGE lifespan in developped countries increases by roughly a quarter
(using recent mortality tables in the UK I get 0.23 more life every year)
(The "average lifespan" increase is in fact not linear and in fact rather exponential)

Your analysis leads to the conclusion that the MAXIMUM lifespan (avg top 100 lifespan in the world) ALSO increases by roughly a quarter every year (0.2278) !!!
This somehow contradicts the general opinion that we are reaching "lifespan rectangularization", i.e. approaching a maximum-lifespan-limit.


Thanks AgeVivo for the interesting information about the increase of the average age of 100 VOLPs being about the same as the increase of the AVERAGE lifespan in developped countries.
The general public opinion that we are reaching maximum-lifespan limit (i.e. beyond that no person can live) is probably based on the fact that the oldest person that ever lived (validated) reached 122 years (in 1997) and nobody else is breaking that record. Now the oldest person is 114 years old. Does that mean that the maximum-lifespan of people have decreased!? One data point isn't that good for statistical analysis, is it? That's why I chose 100.
But the general public, for a quick answer of 'what's the maximum lifetime of humans?' they get 122, and they have heard the same answer for more than a decade; thus, the misleading idea of a fixed human maximum-lifespan.

#149 AgeVivo

  • Guest, Engineer
  • 2,023 posts
  • 1,532

Posted 12 April 2008 - 12:09 PM

Hi struct,
I completely agree with the fact that the "longests lifespan ever", although fascinating, doesn't tell us anything statistically.
Could you also compute the STANDARD ERROR of the mean(=S.E.M.=standard deviation/sqrt(100)) of the 100 oldests ages every year, as you did for the AVERAGE?

this may be interesting for 2 reasons:
1) see if the stderr evolves in a particular fashion (it would have non unique interpretations...)
2) in which measure we can statistically* say that the maximum lifespan is increasing

*for example if recent averages are by more than 2 stderrs above old averages we can say with 95% confidence that the average top 100 maximum lifespan is increasing.

#150 struct

  • Topic Starter
  • Guest
  • 563 posts
  • 10
  • Location:Albania

Posted 13 April 2008 - 03:39 AM

When I did the averaging I had to extrapolate for the number of people of a particular age below 110-years-old age [at 110 they become supercentenarians and they make it to the grg.org list(s) that I have used]. However, the data closer to our present time becomes more and more reliable (less extrapolating). For example if I had to compute the Av. Age of 100 VOLP right now I have to consider 75 supercentenarians + 25 people that are [assumed] 109 years old; this assumption is quite reliable since there are already 27 111-years old and 27 110-years old validated and one expect that number to increase as you go down in years (109, 108, 107 group, etc).
So, when viewing S.E.M below you have te keep in mind that the data has been heavily extrapolated for the earlier years.


year---Av. (yrs)--S.E.M (yrs)

1972 => 104.9---0.14
1973 => 105.0---0.15
1974 => 104.9---0.14
1975 => 105.1---0.16
1976 => 105.0---0.16
1977 => 105.1---0.16
1978 => 105.1---0.17
1979 => 106.1---0.16
1980 => 107.2---0.16
1981 => 107.2---0.16
1982 (missing)
1983 (missing)
1984 => 107.9---0.15
1985 => 108.1---0.17
1986 => 108.9---0.16
1987 => 108.9---0.12
1988 => 108.9---0.13
1989 => 109.0---0.13
1990 => 108.9---0.14
1991 => 109.2---0.15
1992 => 109.9---0.13
1993 => 109.9---0.15
1994 => 109.9---0.16
1995-2005 (missing)
2006 => 110.8
2007 => 110.8

2008--------------0.13 (at this moment)




1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users