302 replies to this topic

[struct]

110.8 years

[struct]

110.9 years

[struct]

110.8 years

[struct]

110.9 years

[struct]

110.95 years (i.e. 111.0 years)

I consider 111.00 years to be a milestone to the Ave. Age of 110 VOLP. It took 16
years (from 1992 to 2008) for the Ave. Age of 100 VOLP to go from 110.0 to
111.0 years (1 year increase).
I will update the number in 5 significant figures until 111.00 years is reached, which I expect to occur before the end of 2008.
Meanwhile the number of validated supercentenarians is increasing: 87 at this moment.

[struct]

110.96 years (i.e. 111.0 years)

(88 supercentenarians)
The number of supercentenarians is also approaching a milestone: 100. I think, first will occur the 111.00-years-number then 100 supercentenarians; we'll see.

[AgeVivo]

33 from the USA + 24 from Japan = roughly 2 thirds of supercentenarians.
Was there smthg special (like a newly high birth rate and reduced infant mortality) in those countries 110 - 115 years ago?

[struct]

110.97 years (i.e. 111.0 years)

(89 supercentenarians)

33 from the USA + 24 from Japan = roughly 2 thirds of supercentenarians.
Was there smthg special (like a newly high birth rate and reduced infant mortality) in those countries 110 - 115 years ago?

Maybe (also) validation in these countries got easier since the newly claimed supercentenarians are more likely to have the required records/documentations for validation in these countries than the ones in other countries and the ones born before them.

[AgeVivo]

yes, definitely

[donjoe]

If the trend in your data is only an artifact of the availability of reliable records, we should expect an average age plateau after a number of years (or decades), right?

---

- After all, Number One, we're only mortal.
- Speak for yourself, sir. I plan to live forever.

[struct]

110.98 years (i.e. 111.0 years)

If the trend in your data is only an artifact of the availability of reliable records, we should expect an average age plateau after a number of years (or decades), right?

Yes;
but I feel and wish that we won't hit that plateau. I see "us" in a local hill right now; haven't even started climbing the 40-to-45-degree-mountain.

Edited by struct, 12 November 2008 - 02:53 AM.

[AgeVivo]

Actuaries reach the same conclusions as the ones we got using your data:

http://www.fightagin...ives/001163.php[/url]"]An Actuarial View of Limits to Longevity:

• limits to life span presently exist
• these limits are increasing at a modest rate, something like 1 year every 5 years
• there appears to be no ceiling to life span in the future

Also, this free-access review: Vaupel JW, The remarkable improvements in survival at older ages provides interesting analyses:

• In Japan the pace of mortality improvement at older ages continues to be particularly rapid, even though mortality levels are lower than elsewhere.
• In the US persons <65y die more than in Western Europe and Japan, while persons >>65y die less
• Overall, the population of centenarians is growing VERY MOSTLY because of the decline in mortality after age 80, MUCH LESS because of increase in births a century ago and/or the sharp decline in infant and childhood mortality

Edited by AgeVivo, 16 November 2008 - 04:42 PM.

[struct]

110.99 years (i.e. 111.0 years)

thx AgeVivo for the reafirmation.

[struct]

(89 supercentenarians)

Edited by struct, 22 November 2008 - 02:47 AM.

[struct]

Bingo!

111.00 years


Remember remember the 22nd of November (11/22/08).

[struct]

111.0 years (110.01 years)

I went back to presenting the number in 4 significant figures to reduce the frequency of updating it).

Meanwhile the number of validated living supercentenarians reached 90 (highest so far).

[struct]

110.9 years

(89 supercentenarians)

[struct]

111.0 years

(90 supercentenarians)

[struct]

110.9 years

(91 supercentenarians)

[struct]

111.0 years

(92 supercentenarians)

[struct]

110.9 years

(91 supercentenarians)

Maria de Jesus (115 y.o.) from Portugal died today.
Now the oldest living person in the world is a woman (114 y.o.) from USA.

[struct]

110.8 years

(89 supercentenarians)

[donjoe]

111.0 years
(92 supercentenarians)

OK, so now that it's 2009 what's your historical average for 2008? Do you calculate a weighted average of all 2008 figures (which would give about 110.7 - 110.8 if I'm not mistaken) or do you just use the maximum from that year (111.0)?

---

- After all, Number One, we're only mortal.
- Speak for yourself, sir. I plan to live forever.

Edited by donjoe, 21 March 2009 - 01:38 PM.

[struct]

I use the maximum; so for 2008 it is 111.0 years.

[struct]

This is a graph of my updated data. It is also displayed on the GRG website http://www.grg.org/ under the 'Centenarians' section.

[struct]

110.9 years

(85 supercentenarians)

This is a graph of my updated data. It is also displayed on the GRG website http://www.grg.org/ under the 'Centenarians' section.

There have been some changes on the GRG website. The above graph is now under 'Supercentenarians' section of http://www.grg.org/

[Mind]

darn. looks like the curve is levelling off. Any ideas why? I suspect we might need some radical new therapies or technologies to get the curve moving upward again.

[struct]

darn. looks like the curve is levelling off. Any ideas why? I suspect we might need some radical new therapies or technologies to get the curve moving upward again.

Some of the increase before year 2000 shown in the graph was due to validation getting better until it probably reached some saturation period in the last decade. I would think, if grg had more resources and/or financial support it would find/validate more supercentenarians; this would affect (move the curve upward in this case) the graph. The estimated number of living supercentenarians is probably around 300-500 but only 85 of them are validated. Hopefully not only validation gets even better but also people start pushing the maximum age limit. Yeah we need aggressive pursuit to have the curve going up at a rate close to our ideal--one year per year.

[AgeVivo]

[AgeVivo]

The whole-world slow-down is in fact due to a few places in the world: