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Approaching the Olduvai Cliff?


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#391 Mind

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Posted 27 January 2006 - 07:37 PM

Ethanol Can Replace Gasoline With Big Energy Savings

Check it out. Good news on the ehtanol front. Researchers from Berkeley have re-analyzed old studies, corrected for erroneous initial assumptions, updated them for current technology, and found that ethanol production is a net positive energy source.

Mark, believe it or not, this study is not by stupid, ignorant, evil, religious, free-market libertarians. It comes from the socialist capital of the U.S. - Berkeley. You gotta believe it!

#392 advancedatheist

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Posted 28 January 2006 - 03:38 AM

Fortunately Thomas Donaldson beat the fuel crunch. Other cryonicists living outside of North America need to plan to relocate here -- NOW:

http://www.timesonli...2011758,00.html

The Times January 27, 2006

Transport experts have seen the future, and it's got pedals
By Ben Webster, Transport Correspondent

THE right to travel when and where we please will be eroded over the next 50 years as the shortage of cheap oil and environmental concerns force us to lead more local lives, according to a government report.

Every journey will have to be justified and face-to-face contact with colleagues, friends and relatives will increasingly become a luxury, with most meetings taking place via three-dimensional “telepresencing”.

Foresight, the Government’s science think-tank, consulted 300 transport experts when drawing up its vision of how travel will have changed by 2055. Its report concludes that the growing demand for greater personal mobility is unsustainable and based on false assumptions.



#393 Mind

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Posted 09 February 2006 - 10:37 PM

One place in the world is already prepared for Peak Oil....if it ever occurs. Samsoe island (4,400 residents) has converted to 100% renewable energy supply. They use a combo of Wind, Solar, and Biomass. Everything on the island runs on renewables. The project wasn't supposed to be completed until 2008 but they are ahead of schedule and already at 100% from some articles I have read

Here is a little info

Of course, converting China, India, the US, ...etc. is a much harder task, but Samsoe has already proven it can be done. They won't be burning candles anytime soon.

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#394 advancedatheist

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Posted 18 February 2006 - 06:07 PM

Three more bits of intel on the energy crisis:

http://www.telegraph.../ixcitytop.html

UK goes back to being oil importer

By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 10/02/2006)

Britain lost its oil independence last year for the first time since the 1970s as the country continued to run down its North Sea reserves.

The UK imported £670m more oil than it exported in 2005, the Office for National Statistics said. It is the first annual deficit for oil trade since 1979, when the North Sea's first fields came online.

The landmark follows figures last year showing Britain became a net importer of natural gas in 2004.

Only four years ago, Britain's oil exports were regularly topping £5 billion a year, but the gradual exhaustion of reserves, combined with a series of accidents on rigs during the year, meant 2005 was a particularly poor year.UK goes back to being oil importer
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 10/02/2006)

Britain lost its oil independence last year for the first time since the 1970s as the country continued to run down its North Sea reserves.

The UK imported £670m more oil than it exported in 2005, the Office for National Statistics said. It is the first annual deficit for oil trade since 1979, when the North Sea's first fields came online.

The landmark follows figures last year showing Britain became a net importer of natural gas in 2004.

Only four years ago, Britain's oil exports were regularly topping £5 billion a year, but the gradual exhaustion of reserves, combined with a series of accidents on rigs during the year, meant 2005 was a particularly poor year.


http://www.washingto...6021502762.html

Japanese Putting All Their Energy Into Saving Fuel

By Anthony Faiola
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, February 16, 2006; Page A01

KAMIITA, Japan -- When the Japanese government issued a national battle cry against soaring global energy prices this winter, no one heeded the call to arms more than this farming town in the misty mountains of western Japan.

To save on energy, local officials shut off the heating system in the town hall, leaving themselves and 100 workers no respite from near-freezing temperatures. On a recent frosty morning, rows of desks were brimming with employees bundled in coats and wool blankets while nursing thermoses of hot tea. To cut back on gasoline use, officials say, most of the town's 13,000 citizens are strictly obeying a nationwide call to turn off car engines while idling, particularly when stopped at traffic lights.

Takao Iwase, Kamiita's husky administrative director, joined other locals in switching off the heat at home, too -- leaving his family to quickly hustle from steaming nighttime baths to the warm comforters on their traditional futons. "We're saving [$100] a day at city hall by shutting off the heat," Iwase, wearing four layers of clothing and a winter coat inside his office, said proudly. "But we no longer see this as just an economic issue. Japan has no natural resources of its own, so saving energy has become our national duty."


http://www.upi.com/E...14-124738-9900r

Analysis: Mexico faces production decline
By CARMEN J. GENTILE

RIO DE JANEIRO, Feb. 15 (UPI) -- Mexico is facing a possible steep decline in oil production in 2006 and beyond due to setbacks at its largest oilfield, experts have warned.

A recent study conducted by Mexico's state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, says output could be threatened at its largest oilfield due to encroaching water and gas. When gas or water enters an oilfield it contaminates the supply, making it more difficult to sell on the market, energy analysts say.

The Cantarell field is Mexico's largest source of crude, producing 2 million barrels per day, or 60 percent of Mexico's total output. Any threat to its production capacity would severely hamper Mexico's already-strapped oil sector and thwart U.S. plans to decrease American dependency on Middle Eastern oil, as espoused by President George W. Bush in his State of the Union address last month.

Canada and Mexico are the largest suppliers of oil to the United States.

Pemex officials have expressed confidence, however, that the company can make up for any setbacks it might experience in the coming years.

"I am confident in Pemex's portfolio of assets," said the state companies Chief Financial Officer Juan Jose Suarez Coppel in a recent interview. "Other fields will be able to substitute (Cantarell's output) and increase production."

An internal report by Pemex actually predicts the company will increase output in 2006 to 3.42 million barrels a day, up from 3.33 million bpd in 2005.

But at the same time, output at Cantarell -- second globally in production only to the Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia -- is predicted to decline by 6 percent to 1.9 million bpd and be diminished to 1.43 million bpd by 2008, a significant drop that could have devastating financial implications to the company and further add to Mexico's energy crunch.


And, of course, the latest statement of a theory which puts it all together:

The Olduvai Theory: Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization, by Richard C. Duncan

http://www.thesocial...wo/xvi-2-93.pdf


#395 Mind

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Posted 18 February 2006 - 11:17 PM

Hey Mark. Who has editing control over the e graph? I noticed the graph in the social contract pdf was different than the one that you published on page 7 of this thread. Plus I have seen different versions here and there on the web showing different crash points. Ranging from 2000 to 2015.

#396 advancedatheist

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Posted 19 February 2006 - 12:49 AM

Hey Mark. Who has editing control over the e graph? I noticed the graph in the social contract pdf was different than the one that you published on page 7 of this thread. Plus I have seen different versions here and there on the web showing different crash points. Ranging from 2000 to 2015.


To the best of my knowledge, Richard C. Duncan draws his own graphs. I wish he would do a better job of it, though; they look like they come from Chick tracts.

As for the different estimated dates of the cliff event, I gather that Duncan has moved it ahead, from 2012-2015 to 2008, because of recurring natural gas crises in Europe and North America. Mild weather helped Americans to get by with tight natural gas supplies in the past few months (though I just read about natural gas shortages causing blackouts in Denver and other Colorado cities during a blast of cold weather). But when you consider the hardships the Japanese face now, this winter, the Olduvai collapse doesn't sound so far-fetched any more.

#397 kevin

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Posted 19 February 2006 - 08:21 AM

http://pesn.com/2006...ydrogen_slurry/

I'm not sure what the energy yield of this 'slurry' might be, but one thing is pretty clear, old technologies are replaced by new technologies pretty regularly when the old ones become in short supply or too expensive. Oil is perhaps a special case of these where you can add fear of civilizational collapse without it as another impetus besides cost. I think the main thing all the doom and gloom of these reports is good for is to ensure that people get off their collective keesters and get moving on making sure their worst outcomes don't occur. That is to say, I'm pretty optmistic..

Hydride slurry as safe hydrogen carrier

Safe Hydrogen LLC receives second of two R&D grants to further perfect a technology that holds promise to provide a feasible delivery system for hydrogen using existing infrastructure.

LEXINGTON, MASS., USA -- Safe Hydrogen, LLC. has developed a safe, pumpable hydrogen-rich fuel that releases hydrogen as needed.

The company is in the process of demonstrating this groundbreaking storage and distribution technology.

This system is designed to address several key road blocks to a hydrogen economy, namely: storage safety, storage and distribution efficiency, and eliminating the need for a new infrastructure.

The company says that the core ingredients of the pumpable chemical hydride slurry are environmentally friendly and completely recyclable. The slurry, both before and after yielding the hydrogen, is not flammable, is safe to handle, is easy to store, and can use the same kind of pumps and tanks that are used for diesel fuel, gasoline or water.



#398 advancedatheist

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Posted 19 February 2006 - 02:57 PM

I'm not sure what the energy yield of this 'slurry' might be, but one thing is pretty clear,  old technologies are replaced by new technologies pretty regularly when the old ones become in short supply or too expensive. 


I think you got it backwards: Technology uses energy; in itself it doesn't increase the supply of energy. After all, Amelia Earhart had about the best small-plane technology of her time, as well as excellent flying skills (which I think fall under the category of "intellectual capital," in modern economics-speak). Despite having these forms of wealth at her disposal, she nonetheless ran out of fuel and crashed somewhere in the South Pacific.

I find it ironic that people who still believe in "progress" as recently understood can say without awareness of cognitive dissonance that we'll replace petroleum and natural gas with wood (for heat), coal and biomass-derived ethanol. That sounds a lot more like how our ancestors lived 150 years ago than how we expected people to live in a high-tech 21st Century.

#399 kevin

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Posted 19 February 2006 - 06:22 PM

I think you got it backwards: Technology uses energy; in itself it doesn't increase the supply of energy


Sure.. technology uses energy, but it also helps to liberate and/or convert energy from one form to another. What I was wondering was whether the net yield of the energy provided by the hydrogen slurry they are working on would be of the order necessary to replace gas or if it was just an expensive 7-11 Frosty... Any links on ideal energy yield from hydrogen ?

#400 Lazarus Long

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Posted 19 February 2006 - 07:56 PM

Consumption uses energy, technology represents the conversion of energy (combined with raw material and or information) into product. The costs of conversion include consumption but are measured in cost/benefit ratios that are subjective (not objective) with respect to a variety of factors for analysis.

There is a profound tendency to confuse these aspects as there is a measure of interdependence at all times but it is a flexible dynamic based on efficiency, supply, and demand.

It can be better understood when weighed as an environmental economic measure than a strict market driven economic model.

#401 advancedatheist

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Posted 20 February 2006 - 04:33 AM

http://finance.news....7-14305,00.html

British industry fears blackouts

From: Reuters
By Jeremy Lovell in London
February 20, 2006 

THE British Government must act quickly and resolutely to plug the yawning energy gap or face blackouts within six years, industry leaders said today.

The call followed a survey showing that three-quarters of business executives, academics and politicians believed the lights would start to go out by 2012 as the country's ageing nuclear power stations were progressively closed down.

It also comes as the Government plunges into a study of how to feed the country's electricity needs while at the same time meeting its international obligations to cut emissions of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels which create climate change.

"Industry sees the possibility of blackouts by 2012 as a 'major concern'. We cannot allow such levels of uncertainty to persist," Digby Jones, director general of the Confederation of British Industry lobby group, said.

"We face some major decisions over our approach to energy in this country. If these decisions are got wrong, or simply put off, the business need for secure energy supplies at internationally competitive prices will become ever harder to meet," he added.



#402 Mind

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Posted 26 February 2006 - 03:48 PM

President Bush was in Wisconsin recently on his alternative energy tour. Oil execs, Greenspan, and others must be getting through to his cabinet because the President was talking quite expansively about how current energy supplies are unstable. He said everything except "peak oil is real".

Again, I take this as a sign that people are not going to sit around and twiddle their thumbs while the whole world goes dark. People react. Problems get solved.

#403 Mind

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Posted 27 February 2006 - 11:20 PM

One of the obstacles to creating a hydrogen/electric economy is the production of hydrogen. Some big name people are now working on it.

#404 Lazarus Long

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Posted 28 February 2006 - 02:52 PM

Another of the big problems Mind of the hydrogen/electric economy is storage and distribution. The infrastructural change is harder than the technological one as it incorporates multiple levels of economic AND technological challenge.

#405 Mind

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Posted 28 February 2006 - 07:17 PM

At least people are working on it.

#406 Lazarus Long

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Posted 01 March 2006 - 12:02 AM

Yes we are.

I am building a hybrid vehicle now from the ground up to my own specs. Perhaps if I succeed at making it street legal and reliable then you might see it in person by the next conference.

I am not personally interested in waiting for others to do this though I will gladly work with many of those accomplishing the change.

#407 Mind

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Posted 25 March 2006 - 11:50 AM

Solar Cell Fab Capacity Rising Dramatically

#408 Mind

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Posted 29 March 2006 - 09:59 PM

Just another website that shows a different year for fossil fuel peak....somewhere around 2010 or 2011...not 2007 or 2008.

#409 Mind

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Posted 02 April 2006 - 03:20 PM

For my work I write a low tech weather blog that covers interesting environmental and space news. Recently I decided to devote a series of articles covering the Peak Oil vs. Global Warming scenarios. I contacted several people on each side of the debate. The Peak Oil theorists all agreed that the IPCC is waaaaaaay overestimating the amount of fossil fuel usage between now and 2100 (IPCC shows a steady increase for the next hundred years). They didn't completely rule out "some" global warming because there is still some fossil fuel left to burn and the carbon dioxide currently in the atmosphere will stick around for a few decades. The Climatologists agreed that fossil fuels will be more expensive in the future but still generally hang on to the idea of increasing fossil fuel usage in the next 100 years.

One scientist from the IPCC was fairly adamant that the Peak Oil theorists are wrong. This person argued (via email) that Peak Oil forecast are static and that society and technology are dynamic. He/she accuse the Peak Oil theorists of using linear predictions. In effect, they are assuming today's extraction technology is all that we will have, even decades into the future. (I have also argued in this thread that technology/progress will help us out of this jam and combat/adapt to the effects of climate change). He/she went on to claim that ECONOMIC (ie. profitable) extraction of oil from shale has begun in Western Canada!!! If this is true then we certainly do not have to worry about the "worst case peak oil scenario" for at least a couple decades.

Have you heard anything about this Mark? The oil shale extraction?

#410 advancedatheist

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Posted 03 April 2006 - 12:53 AM

One scientist from the IPCC was fairly adamant that the Peak Oil theorists are wrong. This person argued (via email) that Peak Oil forecast are static and that society and technology are dynamic. He/she accuse the Peak Oil theorists of using linear predictions. In effect, they are assuming today's extraction technology is all that we will have, even decades into the future.


Oil extraction technology matured decades ago. When you solve 90% of a problem, whittling away at the last 10% won't make that much of a difference.

(I have also argued in this thread that technology/progress will help us out of this jam and combat/adapt to the effects of climate change). He/she went on to claim that ECONOMIC (ie. profitable) extraction of oil from shale has begun in Western Canada!!!

If this is true then we certainly do not have to worry about the "worst case peak oil scenario" for at least a couple decades.

Have you heard anything about this Mark? The oil shale extraction?


I assume this doesn't refer to the extraction of bitumen from so-called "oil sands" in Alberta, but from the mineral called "oil shale," like what you find in the Rocky Mountain region of the Western U.S. I seriously doubt that a project that extracts oil from shale yields net energy. It probably resembles the ethanol-from-corn plant that uses 300 tons of coal a day.

BTW, seasoned oil man T. Boone Pickens (this one, who made $1.5 billion in 2005 by going "long" on oil) appeared on CNBC last Thursday and said that the world has hit an intractable supply wall of 85 million barrels of oil a day (nearly 1,000 barrels a second). The demand continues to grow exponentially, however, so the price for oil will continue to trend upwards. The interviewer stopped short of asking Pickens whether he foresees a decline in the supply in a few years.

#411 advancedatheist

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Posted 08 April 2006 - 06:36 PM

Too good to pass up:

http://business.time...2124287,00.html

The Times April 08, 2006

World 'cannot meet oil demand'

By Carl Mortished, International Business Editor

THE world lacks the means to produce enough oil to meet rising projections of demand for fuel over the next decade, according to Christophe de Margerie, head of exploration for Total and heir presumptive to the leadership of the French energy multinational.

The world is mistakenly focusing on oil reserves when the problem is capacity to produce oil, M de Margerie said in an interview with The Times. Forecasters, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), have failed to consider the speed at which new resources can be brought into production, he believes.

“Numbers like 120 million barrels per day will never be reached, never,” he said.

The IEA predicted in its World Energy Outlook that global demand for crude oil would reach 121 million barrels per day by 2030, of which more than half would be supplied by Opec. The agency predicted that more than $3 trillion (£1.72 trillion) of investment in wells, pipelines and refineries would be needed to raise output to such levels.

However, Total’s exploration chief reckons the output rise is impossible, given available resources and geopolitical constraints on gaining access to reserves in Opec countries.



#412 scottl

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Posted 08 April 2006 - 06:43 PM

I thought of you when I read it.

#413 advancedatheist

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Posted 08 April 2006 - 07:28 PM

It looks like we have a vicious cycle here, because rising oil prices make other energy-intensive commodities more expensive to produce:

http://realtimenews....?storyid=632591

OPEC Warns High Commodity Prices May Kill Oil Projects

by Selina Williams and Sally Jones
Fri, Apr 7, 2006 16:13 GMT


PARIS - Soaring commodity and raw material prices are increasing the cost of oil and gas projects by up to three times, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ministers said Friday.

Although current high oil prices may be helping to drive much-needed crude investment, the rising cost of construction projects could curtail new energy production development, they warn.

Addressing delegates at Petrostrategies annual oil summit in Paris, Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah al Attiyah said: "Our costs have tripled from two years ago, due to high (commodity) prices. And its not just that, it is also contractors who have tripled their prices."

Persistent supply concerns and geopolitical unrest in several OPEC countries continue to keep oil prices in the high end of $60.00 a barrel.

Alongside sky high oil prices, the cost of raw materials and commodities has also risen rapidly in recent months. The price of copper - a key material in the development of energy projects - has so far this year risen by 30% compared with a year ago. Friday, three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange hit an all-time record high price of $5,830 a metric ton.



#414 Mind

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Posted 16 May 2006 - 10:37 PM

“Numbers like 120 million barrels per day will never be reached, never,” he said.

The IEA predicted in its World Energy Outlook that global demand for crude oil would reach 121 million barrels per day by 2030, of which more than half would be supplied by Opec. The agency predicted that more than $3 trillion (£1.72 trillion) of investment in wells, pipelines and refineries would be needed to raise output to such levels.


I have been harping on this fact for awhile now as it relates to climate change. The climate modelers (many who proclaim the world will end because of all the oil that will be burned in coming decades) use estimates from the IEA for their long term simulations. There is no way we will ever pump 121 million barrels of oil.

#415 Mind

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Posted 16 May 2006 - 10:40 PM

Just a couple more articles about the world switching to different fuels. The reaction seems to be broadbased and rapid. I still assert that human society will not stand by, starve, and burn candles, as the peak oil theorists predict. Tough times ahead? Could be?

Death of everyone? No way.

#416 Mind

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Posted 16 May 2006 - 10:41 PM

More reaction to high oil prices. China mulls big new hydro project

#417 advancedatheist

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Posted 17 May 2006 - 05:00 AM

Just a couple more articles about the world switching to different fuels. The reaction seems to be broadbased and rapid.


Funny, everyone I know still has to buy gasoline or diesel fuel for his vehicles, and we still have to buy propane for the Creekside Preserve.

The U.S. Air Force reportedly wants to find alternative fuels to do its business, but then, it has the ability to get its way through a command-and-control "economy." (Cryonics organizations have had to run in a similar fashion because they can't exist as regular businesses; the market overwhelmingly rejects cryonics as a waste of resources, as I suspect will happen to "alternative" fuels once the true costs come due.)

I still assert that human society will not stand by, starve, and burn candles, as the peak oil theorists predict. Tough times ahead? Could be?

Death of everyone? No way.


The Olduvai Theory doesn't predict the "death of everyone," as in total human extinction. Instead it predicts a massive, Atlas Shrugged sort of dieoff where a few million survivors have to live as hunter-gatherers, because in the real world we don't have a John Galt hiding out somewhere with his perpetual motion machine to reboot industrial civilization. (The more I think about it, the more implicitly Malthusian Atlas Shrugged reads.)

#418 Lazarus Long

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Posted 17 May 2006 - 06:17 AM

Climate change may kill millions in Africa: report
Mon May 15, 3:33 AM ET
LONDON (Reuters) - Disease spread by global warming could kill an extra 185 million people in sub-Saharan Africa by the end of the century and turn millions more into refugees unless rich nations take action now, a report said on Monday.


US denies post-2012 emissions discussion with EU
Mon May 15, 6:50 PM ET
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The United States on Monday denied it had discussed with the European Commission plans to curb greenhouse gas emissions after the Kyoto Protocol runs out on 2012.

Poverty more pressing than climate: India
Tue May 16, 3:27 PM ET
BONN, Germany (Reuters) - India said on Tuesday that poor nations had to give priority to ending poverty rather than fighting global warming at 189-nation U.N. climate talks criticized by environmentalists as a rambling talk shop.

1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill still a threat: study
Tue May 16, 1:05 PM ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Oil spilled 17 years ago by the tanker Exxon Valdez still threatens wildlife around Alaska's Prince William Sound, scientists reported on Tuesday, a finding that could add $100 million to cleanup costs for Exxon Mobil Corp.

China says south coast water pollution "serious"
30 minutes ago
BEIJING (Reuters) - China has admitted that measures to tackle "serious" water pollution in the southern booming province of Guangdong are not working, state media reported on Wednesday.

3 major hurricanes to hit US this year: AccuWeather
Mon May 15, 11:34 AM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Three major hurricanes will strike the United States this year, with the storm-battered Gulf Coast most at risk in June and July, forecaster AccuWeather predicted Monday.

Death toll from Pakistan heatwave crosses 50
Mon May 15, 5:44 AM ET
ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - A heatwave has killed at least 50 people in Pakistan since the start of May, prompting authorities to warn people to stay out of the midday sun as temperatures cross 50 Celsius (122 Fahrenheit) in the shade.

Just a few of the headlines from the last 48 hours.

#419 Brian

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Posted 22 May 2006 - 05:26 AM

Funny, I read the first post, and now just read a news story that there is so much natural gas already in storage this year in the US that people are getting worried there will be too much by this fall and they will run out of places to store it all. Prices have dropped quite a bit.

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#420 Lazarus Long

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Posted 22 May 2006 - 05:35 AM

Funny, I read the first post, and now just read a news story that there is so much natural gas already in storage this year in the US that people are getting worried there will be too much by this fall and they will run out of places to store it all. Prices have dropped quite a bit.


We can hope but the prices haven't dropped to as low as they were before the post Katrina fall run-up now have they?

And anyway if they run out off places to store it they could always sell it to the Chinese in exchange for manufactured goods.




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