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How long you EXPECT to live?


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69 replies to this topic

Poll: Life expectancy (139 member(s) have cast votes)

How long you EXPECT to live?

  1. 0 - 60 (8 votes [5.76%])

    Percentage of vote: 5.76%

  2. 60 - 80 (5 votes [3.60%])

    Percentage of vote: 3.60%

  3. 80 - 120 (53 votes [38.13%])

    Percentage of vote: 38.13%

  4. 120 - 150 (18 votes [12.95%])

    Percentage of vote: 12.95%

  5. 150 - 300 (12 votes [8.63%])

    Percentage of vote: 8.63%

  6. 300 - 1000 (1 votes [0.72%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.72%

  7. 1000 - 10,000 (3 votes [2.16%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.16%

  8. 10,000 - 100,000 (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  9. 100,000 - 1 million (1 votes [0.72%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.72%

  10. Millions years (3 votes [2.16%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.16%

  11. Until earth become unhabitable by humans means (1 votes [0.72%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.72%

  12. Until earth become unhabitable by natural means (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  13. Until all viables planets resources are consumed (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  14. Until no energy resource can be found (7 votes [5.04%])

    Percentage of vote: 5.04%

  15. Eternity: I will transcend time (27 votes [19.42%])

    Percentage of vote: 19.42%

Under which form you expect to survive the longest?

  1. My current organic body + organic transplants (51 votes [36.69%])

    Percentage of vote: 36.69%

  2. My current organic body + artificial transplants (38 votes [27.34%])

    Percentage of vote: 27.34%

  3. Completely artificial autonomous body + AI (17 votes [12.23%])

    Percentage of vote: 12.23%

  4. AI without autonomous body (4 votes [2.88%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.88%

  5. Technological singularity (29 votes [20.86%])

    Percentage of vote: 20.86%

Under which form you expect to survive the longest? (Include spiritual means)

  1. My current organic body + organic transplants (34 votes [24.46%])

    Percentage of vote: 24.46%

  2. My current organic body + artificial transplants (28 votes [20.14%])

    Percentage of vote: 20.14%

  3. Completely artificial autonomous body + AI (16 votes [11.51%])

    Percentage of vote: 11.51%

  4. AI without autonomous body (4 votes [2.88%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.88%

  5. Technological singularity (28 votes [20.14%])

    Percentage of vote: 20.14%

  6. Spiritual singularity (9 votes [6.47%])

    Percentage of vote: 6.47%

  7. Independant soul (20 votes [14.39%])

    Percentage of vote: 14.39%

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#61 erzebet

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Posted 17 December 2009 - 08:10 PM

In my opinion, the chances of survival can be greatly extended by distributing one's intelligence across a network of separate but interconnected "selves" occupying a wide range. This would lessen the chance of total, sudden annihilation from accidental or intentional means but increase the frequency of smaller, localized losses to the overall system. It's a trade-off that some people might be willing to accept.

In response to the OP, I expect to live another 80 or so years. After all, I'm a healthy 17 year old who eats well and doesn't smoke. I'm also thinking about CR but I have my doubts. Obviously this could be greatly extended if cryonics turns out to be reversible.


I agree with your first phrase, it is like the general financial advice to not put all your eggs in the same basket; maybe we should do the same with the information that makes us- store it in different "banks"

#62 Brain_Ischemia

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Posted 17 December 2009 - 09:37 PM

All four of my grandparents lived to their early 80s and had relatively poor diets, lifestyles, and mental issues (my grandmother suffered severe depression and was an on/off alcoholic), so those who are saying "around 80" are either seriously underestimating or are planning to engage in very risky behaviors on a regular basis.

I'd like to think 80-120 for me (which for me is another 60+ years), but I think it's extremely naive *NOT* to expect significant technological advances that will extend life by that time....so realistically, it seems 120+ is entirely reasonable for me. I find it very hard to believe that I'd only live to see another 60 years with CR+religiously strict diet+exercise+proper supplementation+unforseeable technology advances....

I *hope* to live forever of course. :-D

Edited by Xanthus, 17 December 2009 - 09:40 PM.


#63 Berserker

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Posted 18 December 2009 - 01:00 PM

I expect to live between 80-100 years. Today im 18 years old.

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#64 DukeNukem

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Posted 18 December 2009 - 02:56 PM

Couldn't vote because the right choices weren't available.

Without any significant medical intervention, I fully expect to live past 100. Currently at 48, and still competing in any sport/activity like a mid-20-yr-old. I still do not feel any downhill effects of getting older. And all of my health markers are pretty much perfect.

With medical advances, I think I have a chance at 110-120. I'm hoping this allows me to reach escape velocity. But if not, my life has been amazing and I don't expect it to be any less exciting in the coming decades.

#65 atp

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Posted 09 January 2010 - 01:00 AM

80 - 120 years .
despite all progress any estimation greater than 120 seems to me too optimistic if it is about the EXPECTED duration of the own life.

the interesting point is, that if you can reach 150 then there is a big chance to reach 1000 as well. and then there is of course a big chance to reach one million.

the hope to live one million years is rational.
the expectation to live so long is irrational.

i think it is important to note that
if you want your hopes to come true, then you must live as if your expected prediction is not worse than your hope.

if you think you will fail then you will fail.

Edited by atp, 09 January 2010 - 01:22 AM.


#66 Anthony

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Posted 21 January 2010 - 04:23 AM

While acknowledging that it is difficult if not impossible to generate an accurate forecast of this sort, I will nonetheless give it a try.

I think that I will live to around 92-95 years of age for several key reasons.

I think that average life span will fall somewhere between 84-87 within the next 40-50 years (with women outliving men by 3-3.5 years) due to advances in bio-medicine (including in the areas of biologics, pharmacology, and DME). If that occurs, the average life span for a male who makes it to 65 will be around 90-91. I plan on living a bit longer than the average. At the same time, several men in my family have made it past 90, so it is possible that I have the gene combination, which is necessary to hit 90+, even if bio-medicine does not advance at all (which is extremely unlikely).

At the same time, I hope that the trends in bio-medicine outpace my expectations. If that occurs, then I would expect to live a lot longer than 92-95 years. I will do what I can over the next few decades to advance the healthy life extension cause.

Anthony

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#67 brokenportal

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Posted 21 January 2010 - 05:00 AM

I think that I will live to around 92-95 years of age for several key reasons.


Im suprised to see you write that. Im reminded of the quote, "It is fatal to enter any war with out the will to win it." Of course, you may be completly right about that age, but arent you afraid of it being at least partially self prophesizing? I dont know, maybe Im wrong.

The Vikings play the Saints this weekend. Should the Vikings say something like, "We're good, but we think we will lose by a score of around 24 to 35 for several key reasons."

Im not trying to say your wrong. Im just saying, maybe Im wrong.

#68 ben951

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Posted 24 January 2010 - 01:14 PM

I'm a bit surprised by the low expectation, specially on this forum 80, 100, 120 for many posters.

Those expectation seems low to me, probable if the scientific progress stop right now but how can we expect it will.

Lest say the majority of poster have 50 years of natural life expectancy left.

In the next 50 years :
No gene therapy progress are made or very very small.
After all we have the proof that human can live at least 122 year old if they have they right genetics and turning genes on and off is possible.

No progress in organ replacement, stem cell, printing organs etc.

No singularity, or even no big progress in AGI, nanotech etc, Kurzweil, Vernor
Vinge etc are 100% wrong for some reason those trends will stop.

And finally no more progress in cryonics, after all we just need to preserve properly our brains. (if it's not already the case right now ).

Edited by ben951, 24 January 2010 - 01:15 PM.


#69 N.T.M.

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Posted 15 February 2010 - 07:48 AM

Overview of what I think:

1.) reverse damage

2.) include inorganic augmentations

3.) eventually fully transfer to a completely inorganic body

I'm a bit surprised by the low expectation, specially on this forum 80, 100, 120 for many posters.


Me too. =/

Edited by N.T.M., 15 February 2010 - 07:53 AM.


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#70 atp

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Posted 15 February 2010 - 07:59 AM

I'm a bit surprised by the low expectation, specially on this forum 80, 100, 120 for many posters.

Those expectation seems low to me, probable if the scientific progress stop right now but how can we expect it will.

Lest say the majority of poster have 50 years of natural life expectancy left.

In the next 50 years :
No gene therapy progress are made or very very small.
After all we have the proof that human can live at least 122 year old if they have they right genetics and turning genes on and off is possible.

No progress in organ replacement, stem cell, printing organs etc.

No singularity, or even no big progress in AGI, nanotech etc, Kurzweil, Vernor
Vinge etc are 100% wrong for some reason those trends will stop.

And finally no more progress in cryonics, after all we just need to preserve properly our brains. (if it's not already the case right now ).


humans are already millions of years on earth. any estimation for singularity in the timeframe of decades is nonsense for me.
50 years ago, there already was scientific knowledge and technologies on the way which never existed before.

if you take unsure future scientific breakthroughs into account then this is hope and not serious expectation.

the question when a big impact will arise can not be answered with a precision of less or equal than decades.

Edited by atp, 15 February 2010 - 08:01 AM.





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