14 replies to this topic

[marqueemoon]

I'm curious to hear people's educated guesses. My boyfriend and father both predicted about 50 years, but I think that's an underestimate. I'd say 150.

I'll modify my original question to say not necessarily an absolute cure for aging, but something that allows people to age at a much slower rate like some mammals do.

Edited by marqueemoon, 08 January 2009 - 03:56 AM.

[forever freedom]

It's really hard to even guess. There have already been countless topics on this matter by the way.


Still, i'll lay out my educated guess: between 2045-2065. Maybe we won't find a definite cure, but we will have ways of delaying aging enough so that we reach escape velocity.

[niner]

It won't be a single thing, a single "cure". It will be a whole collection of treatments, diets, exercise programs, pharmacogenomics, improved diagnostics... So the ultimate cure will be stretched out over perhaps hundreds of years. Fortunately, that time span probably started close to a hundred years ago. We are already on the path, and our progress is accelerating. Right now, the average man on the street could probably add 10 or 20 years to his life by doing the sorts of things that many of us do. It might be worthwhile to ask when we will hit escape velocity. That depends on your current age. If you are very young, like my kids, you might have already hit it. Time will tell.

[marqueemoon]

OK, let's modify my original question to when we hit "escape velocity." Also, elaborate on how you've made your guess.

[AgeDefier]

OK, let's modify my original question to when we hit "escape velocity." Also, elaborate on how you've made your guess.

I think within the next 10-15 years, we will be able to delay most cancers, heart disease, diabetes, infectious diseases, Alzheimers for at least an additional 5-10 years perhaps making escape velocity...ie.the major causes of age-related death.

My basis: "Accelerating Change" in a variety of aspects of anti-aging and demographics which would be synergistic and have a multiplier effect:

(1) huge influx of research $ and interest due to baby boomers aging,
(2) huge influx of interest in anti-aging among scientists as the consumer interest and demand increases,
(3) huge influx of interest in anti-aging among investment capital to capitalize on that demand,
(4) great strides already being made and continuing in the laboratory on new discoveries,
(5) new methodologies and technologies (ie. nano) for better delivery and testing of treatments.
(6) Computational technologies for discovering and synthesizing data pattens
(7) higher awareness and communication of knowledge in the general public of how to reduce effects of aging.

However, the "cure" won't be a pill, but rather a multi-disciplinary approach (diet,natural supplements, drugs). Unfortunately, like smokers, a lot of people won't do it anyway...or won't have the knowledge...

(woohoo, first post!, thanks for having such a great forum, been lurking for a few weeks)

[Mixter]

We're already on the way, it depends on the current age.

See Longevity escape velocity:

http://www.pubmedcen...gi?artid=423155

http://www.accelerat...ple-blog/?p=192

IMO your above points are good, but boil down to: 1. Huge influx of $

Lots of good scientists are qualified and ready to work on this. Even in life
sciences, a good amount of them is doing cargo-cult-science basic research
in areas not really critical to human wellbeing... With a Human Longevity Project
just like the Human Genome Project and a price of a few million $, even the
Venter Institute should come up with something expected (SENS) or unexpected...

But persuading investors with facts requires successfully doing the science. Which
is what SENS is doing and on success again should lead to 1. Huge influx of $

Edited by mixter, 08 January 2009 - 09:13 AM.

[Prometheus]

hmm.. its not about the dollars. if it was about the dollars, the pharma companies with the billion dollar budgets would have conquered the field already

its about innovation, making a leap, connecting the dots, etc. usually happens in the mind of a *single* individual, like every great invention and scientific paradigm shift

the dollars aid in commercializing and creating economies of scale, and those sorts of dollars come from investors who can see an exit strategy.

[Mixter]

IMO, in the current healthcare system, improving symptom treating is unfortunately a
LOT more financially lucrative for pharma than the risiker long-term investment in a
therapy and reversal of the causes of aging / degenerative disease

perhaps 2-3% of big pharma's budget may go in this direction, e.g. melatonin or
resveratrol analogues, with another 20-25% going into patenting derivatives of
existing stuff and clinical studies and approvals, most of the rest for marketing.

further, all the other scientists at colleges and otherwise not directly involved in pharma,
won't spend their mental energy on problems of aging reversal, since they can't make
a living from that and won't even get sufficient grants since "aging is not a disease".

small things for the puzzle piece are mostly being developed because mainstream
technologies such as stem cells, monoclonal antibodies and amyloid vaccinations
just happen to be helpful in actually treating root causes of aging, too. the rest of
real aging research is less than a dozen small companies and institutions such as
Mprize, LEF, Dr. Michael West, maybe Geron a little bit...

[AgeDefier]

Hi Dr Manhattan. I agree it's not purely about dollars--but money helps, to have more scientists,studies,technology. Sure, a single person may come up with a big discovery, but that will likely be built on other ideas/discoveries. Hundreds or thousands of scientists working on similar problems have a better chance of "getting lucky", making a breakthrough and laying the groundwork. Throw in the feedback loop of much better communication/computational technologies than we had 20 years ago + new related discoveries every day.

On big pharma, which is a relatively recent phenomenon compared to aging... they focused on treating individual diseases and symptoms which were likely the most bang for the buck (easiest stuff discovered and monetized first). And as mixter mentions, a lot of their budget is spent on marketing. I'm not sure where big pharma figures in this--on one hand they have an incentive to keep a customer alive, on the other hand they don't seem to have an incentive to "cure" the disease (so customers wouldn't need them). But I think their current revenue models will be similar with aging advances--if the "cure" was a steady variety of a bunch of pills/treatmens/therapies taken by everybody, like adding oil to your car and getting it serviced regularly, and it worked, then their customer base would steadily increase.

[forever freedom]

OK, let's modify my original question to when we hit "escape velocity." Also, elaborate on how you've made your guess.

I guessed between 2045-2065 because it's in this time interval that the Singularity is expected to happen. I really don't think that we will be able to beat aging or even reach escape velocity in this century without the aid of strong AI.

[Prometheus]

On big pharma, which is a relatively recent phenomenon compared to aging... they focused on treating individual diseases and symptoms which were likely the most bang for the buck (easiest stuff discovered and monetized first). And as mixter mentions, a lot of their budget is spent on marketing. I'm not sure where big pharma figures in this--on one hand they have an incentive to keep a customer alive, on the other hand they don't seem to have an incentive to "cure" the disease (so customers wouldn't need them). But I think their current revenue models will be similar with aging advances--if the "cure" was a steady variety of a bunch of pills/treatmens/therapies taken by everybody, like adding oil to your car and getting it serviced regularly, and it worked, then their customer base would steadily increase.

You can bet your bottom dollar that if there was anything - anything at all remotely workable in terms of ameliorating aging pharmacologically - they would be on to it.
Glaxo bought Sirtis for $700M. They are very interested.

[Cyberbrain]

when do you predict they will find a cure for aging?

50% chance that it will be found in our lifetime and given a 50% chance that an afterlife may exist, I say we have a 75% of becoming immortal

[Luna]

When it's done!

I don't think guessing helps, you don't want to live in hopes and die, better make an effort and by that make it come in your life time

[Mixter]

I guessed between 2045-2065 because it's in this time interval that the Singularity is expected to happen.

Not exactly, please see the links -- if you expect 2045 as time of singularity where biological age won't
matter, your longevity escape velocity is reached, if progress enables you to be alive and not terminally ill in 2045.
This means you need life extension technology in 2035 to be alive and not terminally ill for another 10 years.
Which means you need life extension technology in 2025 to be alive and not terminally ill for another 20 years.
Which means you need life extension technology in 5 years to make it to 2025, if you're old enough to need that.

This is the idea of longevity escape velocity. Let's say your parents are 49 now, and 60 in 2015, life expectancy
75 years. If tomorrow, SENS researchers fond something useful and could get it through clinical trials and put it
into medical practice within 5 years, and if this treatment extends life expectancy by 20%, that's 15 more years,
hence life expectancy of 90 instead of 75, hence living to 2045 instead of 2030, so your parents could make it.

And 2045 doesn't even need to be the singularity, it could just be the year where a more powerful antiaging treatment
is put into practice that increases life expectancy by 50%, allowing for a regular age of 112, waiting for the next progress...

[sunil]

Changes in DNA take place, which can and often do affect the way the body
functions; harmful genes are sometimes activated, and necessary ones
deactivated. A decrease in important body proteins like hormones and certain
types of body cells is almost inevitable. These, among many, are characteristic
changes that take place in our bodies as time moves on and aging continues.

====================
s.k

Edited by shepard, 19 January 2009 - 04:39 PM.
Removed Spam URL