67 replies to this topic

[bluemoon]

What maybe going over peoples heads here is that Sinclair recently announced NMN could be on the market as a big thing within the next five years. Chromadex have announced they will be marketing NR themselves....Both have one thing in common, they raise NAD. Also a big multimillion dollar Chinese investment in Niagen.......coincidence?....I don't think so.

 

Also Guarente (Elysium health/ Basis) and Sinclair worked together in the past, Guarente being Sinclair's mentor at MIT. Elysium Health put financial pressure on Chromadex recently out of the blue risking there only supply of NR. Sinclair announces an NMN based wonder pill within five years.......Far more to this than we know as far as I'm concerned!

 

But one twist is that Chromodex is likely cutting sales to all vendors, not just Elysium, and Elysium may have known this when they bought four times the amount they usually did in late June last year, just when they got their one month results in from the 120 person trial. My guess is that they wanted to keep selling Basis long enough before they release a new product later this year or early next year. They claim they have at least one in testing but no indication of when they will start selling it. Elysium can always buy up NR from other vendors who know that they won't be selling NR much longer to keep the original BASIS on the market well into 2018.

 

By the way, TRU-Naigen that Chromadex acquired was the brand that NR researcher Charles Brenner was selling. On the local news clip that Bryan_S linked to a few weeks ago the journalist and Brenner said that his explanation of NR wasn't an advertisement for a product yet since Chromadex is the monopoly wholesaler likely about to become the monopoly retailer of NR as a supplement, it was a type of advertisement, even mentioning the "about.nr" site that Chromadex put up. Maybe not that important, but I thought interesting. 

 

Sinclair is testing NMN for safety with a trial that will run to early next year, so it doesn't seem like he will be teaming up with Guarente and Elysium any time soon.

[midas]

 

What maybe going over peoples heads here is that Sinclair recently announced NMN could be on the market as a big thing within the next five years. Chromadex have announced they will be marketing NR themselves....Both have one thing in common, they raise NAD. Also a big multimillion dollar Chinese investment in Niagen.......coincidence?....I don't think so.

 

Also Guarente (Elysium health/ Basis) and Sinclair worked together in the past, Guarente being Sinclair's mentor at MIT. Elysium Health put financial pressure on Chromadex recently out of the blue risking there only supply of NR. Sinclair announces an NMN based wonder pill within five years.......Far more to this than we know as far as I'm concerned!

 

But one twist is that Chromodex is likely cutting sales to all vendors, not just Elysium,

 

My take on what was said was that Chromadex was keeping a few vendors and cutting the ones that had been misrepresenting NR as the same compound that Sinclair was talking about three years ago (NMN) by quoting the mouse muscle tissue rejuvenation........The intention as I see it was that Chromadex was going to supply to fewer customers so they can control the price of NR better. More suppliers = more competition with price.

As far as Elysium goes, well, they dug their own hole with Chromadex a few months ago.....No coming back from that.

Also from what was said their will be no great change in NR supply until the middle or toward the end of next year, so we should be OK with the present price until mid or maybe even late 2017..

[bluemoon]

 

 

My take on what was said was that Chromadex was keeping a few vendors and cutting the ones that had been misrepresenting NR as the same compound that Sinclair was talking about three years ago (NMN) by quoting the mouse muscle tissue rejuvenation........The intention as I see it was that Chromadex was going to supply to fewer customers so they can control the price of NR better. More suppliers = more competition with price.

As far as Elysium goes, well, they dug their own hole with Chromadex a few months ago.....No coming back from that.

Also from what was said their will be no great change in NR supply until the middle or toward the end of next year, so we should be OK with the present price until mid or maybe even late 2017..

 

 

At 21:00 someone asks about Chromadex's new retail strategy and the response is that they are "clearing the playing field for us to set the stage for us to make an investment in our own consumer product brand is a priority for us. The short answer is that we are clearing the playing field right now, and we expect it to be substantially cleared as this year progresses, and we expect a lot of it to be cleared by the end of the year."

 

"...24:00  Most of them will eventually run out of inventory, but there is also the possibility that we may be able to clear it by potentially just taking some of that inventory on our own and removing it so that we can clear a path in a more efficient way. and we're evaluating several different ways. I don't foresee that it will go out for a long period of time that you'll see a lot of inventory out there.

 

Another guy responds to a further follow up question about the transition from wholesaler to retailer:

 

"The largest sellers will be still selling at the end of the year and beyond that depending on how the relationships go in the coming months. But I expect at the end of 2017 and the beginning of 2018 that you will see a dramatic increase from our own distribution. ... ... "We are open to that [keep selling NR to some vendors] but that's all that we can say right now."

 

That doesn't sound at all like Chromadex will sell to anyone in the near future. Why would they spend a lot on marketing as a retailer and keep other vendors supplied?

 

Keep in mind that Elysium attracted a key Chromadex employee to its company last year and likely new Chromadex was going the retail route. Elysium was never meant to be just an NR/pterostilbine vendor, and I bet will do very well with a new product. It is Chromadex that may be in trouble. 

Edited by bluemoon, 14 May 2017 - 02:35 AM.

[midas]

{SNIP: MR summary: Excerpts from the Chromadex conference call, indicating their intent to consolidate retailers down to the largest sellers and possibly to eliminate all of them in favor of an own-brain/private label monopoly or henopoly {Folks, please trim quotes to the material essential to your reply -MR}

 
Well, we both have our own take on what was said and we both see it playing out in different ways, no point in arguing about it, we'll just have to wait and see.....time will tell!

Edited by Michael, 14 May 2017 - 03:18 AM.

[bluemoon]

 

Well, we both have our own take on what was said and we both see it playing out in different ways, no point in arguing about it, we'll just have to wait and see.....time will tell!

 

 

 

Yep. 

[stefan_001]

 

 

Well, we both have our own take on what was said and we both see it playing out in different ways, no point in arguing about it, we'll just have to wait and see.....time will tell!

 

 

 

Yep. 

 

 

Chromadex is in no trouble what so ever except some short term revenue impact. In particular now that they have Horizons as stakeholder who has global distribution chains. Elysium on the other side has hyped basis for couple years now and will need to explain to their US only customer base that something else is even better once supplies of PTE and NR dries up. Good luck to them...

 

You are aware that Elysium applies > 4 x markup on the ingredients they get from Chromadex? They have had a very good deal so far. If another party can produce NMN or NR via different method they are not gonna get it cheaper. PTE, I don't see any other party replacing it. Elysium in my view spoilt it for all retailers, they were probably the trigger for the Chromadex team to pull the plug on the retailer model.
 

[bluemoon]

 

 

Chromadex is in no trouble what so ever except some short term revenue impact. In particular now that they have Horizons as stakeholder who has global distribution chains. Elysium on the other side has hyped basis for couple years now and will need to explain to their US only customer base that something else is even better once supplies of PTE and NR dries up. Good luck to them...

 

You are aware that Elysium applies > 4 x markup on the ingredients they get from Chromadex? They have had a very good deal so far. If another party can produce NMN or NR via different method they are not gonna get it cheaper. PTE, I don't see any other party replacing it. Elysium in my view spoilt it for all retailers, they were probably the trigger for the Chromadex team to pull the plug on the retailer model.
 

 

 

This just in: 

 

"The federal district court dismissed both of ChromaDex's tort claims -- fraudulent deceit and trade secrets -- although ChromaDex is entitled to amend its complaint and assert with more specificity why the thing that Elysium allegedly stole was a trade secret.

 

The federal district court refused to dismisss [sic] Elysium's fraud and patent misuse claims, but did dismiss Elysium's unfair trade practices claim."

 

 

https://www.right-of...ions-to-Dismiss

[bluemoon]

 

 

 

Chromadex is in no trouble what so ever except some short term revenue impact. In particular now that they have Horizons as stakeholder who has global distribution chains. Elysium on the other side has hyped basis for couple years now and will need to explain to their US only customer base that something else is even better once supplies of PTE and NR dries up. Good luck to them...

 

You are aware that Elysium applies > 4 x markup on the ingredients they get from Chromadex? They have had a very good deal so far. If another party can produce NMN or NR via different method they are not gonna get it cheaper. PTE, I don't see any other party replacing it. Elysium in my view spoilt it for all retailers, they were probably the trigger for the Chromadex team to pull the plug on the retailer model.
 

 

 

Despite selling only in the US, Elysium has accounted for 50% of all sales of NR with the other 39 or so vendors accounting for the other half. Elysium can sell Basis well into next year if it chooses to do so before it releases 'New Basis' or whatever else they call it. Just as David Sinclair has called resveratrol "old technoloy" for many years, NR will also be seen this way.

 

This is part of ChromaDex's problem since sales of NR have been fairly low considering that it has been on the market for 3.5 years. It may do much better from 2018, but just as NR may finally take off, ChromaDex will be hit with competition from Elysium and likely at least one pharmaceutical in 2018 or 2019.

 

ChromaDex has been a mismanaged company as their continual low share price reflects. They have been selling NR for years and yet the price is at $3.50 a share, the average of the past four years and has averaged $3.00 a share during the past year. This is not a raging success for a company that owns a monopoly on supposedly the Next Big Thing in supplements. 

[stefan_001]

 

 

 

Despite selling only in the US, Elysium has accounted for 50% of all sales of NR with the other 39 or so vendors accounting for the other half. Elysium can sell Basis well into next year if it chooses to do so before it releases 'New Basis' or whatever else they call it. Just as David Sinclair has called resveratrol "old technoloy" for many years, NR will also be seen this way.

 

This is part of ChromaDex's problem since sales of NR have been fairly low considering that it has been on the market for 3.5 years. It may do much better from 2018, but just as NR may finally take off, ChromaDex will be hit with competition from Elysium and likely at least one pharmaceutical in 2018 or 2019.

 

ChromaDex has been a mismanaged company as their continual low share price reflects. They have been selling NR for years and yet the price is at $3.50 a share, the average of the past four years and has averaged $3.00 a share during the past year. This is not a raging success for a company that owns a monopoly on supposedly the Next Big Thing in supplements. 

 

 

So far Elysium is nothing more than a pill packer with no track record of bringing new ingredients to the market. Perhaps NR will be old technology at some point but thats years away. Anything replacing it will need to build a significant body of research evidence first. For NR that is now starting to be there. The best hope for Elysium is finding a supplier that can make NR without violating Chromadex IPR or then find a party that can make NMN at acceptable prices and that is willing to sell to them. Even then I am not convinced that NMN would get dietary status to quickly.

Edited by stefan_001, 14 May 2017 - 07:26 PM.

[MikeDC]

Some wrong information here about ELYSIUM. Elysium initially ordered 4 times of normal order last year. ChoromaDex only filled half. Two times regular order is about one year supply. So will run out of Niagen in a few months.

[bluemoon]

 

 

 

So far Elysium is nothing more than a pill packer with no track record of bringing new ingredients to the market. Perhaps NR will be old technology at some point but thats years away. Anything replacing it will need to build a significant body of research evidence first. For NR that is now starting to be there. The best hope for Elysium is finding a supplier that can make NR without violating Chromadex IPR or then find a party that can make NMN at acceptable prices and that is willing to sell to them. Even then I am not convinced that NMN would get dietary status to quickly.

 

 

Elysium is a pill packer that happens to have 20 scientists on its advisory board including 7 Nobel laureates and just completed a 120 person study that has been sent (or will be sent) for peer review. Elysium never made false claims about NR and is selling it at a high price. ChromaDex's claim that it is "clearing the field" doesn't follow from its reasoning of low price vendors. If that was really the reason, they could just stop selling to the few offenders out of the 40. 

 

I can't think of a case where a wholesaler that has a monopoly suddenly decides to become a retailer and a wholesaler at the same time. My guess is that Elysium is busy using part of its recent $20 million infusion to buy up other vendor's NR so that it can easily transition to a new Basis.Elysium must have always considered that ChromaDex could go retail with NR, and I bet heard of the plans to do so early last year, prompting the 4 times larger purchase last June.

 

ChromaDex looks vulnerable for a take over since it may have a very good product but bad management. Listen to the last guy who tells the CEO "Frank, you should consider resigning here. I'm really upset and can't believe the things I'm hearing. Great potential, but you haven't delivered."   The article that recommended shorting ChromaDex last spring was also revealing.  

Edited by bluemoon, 14 May 2017 - 08:04 PM.

[stefan_001]

 

 

 

 

So far Elysium is nothing more than a pill packer with no track record of bringing new ingredients to the market. Perhaps NR will be old technology at some point but thats years away. Anything replacing it will need to build a significant body of research evidence first. For NR that is now starting to be there. The best hope for Elysium is finding a supplier that can make NR without violating Chromadex IPR or then find a party that can make NMN at acceptable prices and that is willing to sell to them. Even then I am not convinced that NMN would get dietary status to quickly.

 

 

Elysium is a pill packer that happens to have 20 scientists on its advisory board including 7 Nobel laureates and just completed a 120 person study that has been sent (or will be sent) for peer review. Elysium never made false claims about NR and is selling it at a high price. ChromaDex's claim that it is "clearing the field" doesn't follow from its reasoning of low price vendors. If that was really the reason, they could just stop selling to the few offenders out of the 40. 

 

I can't think of a case where a wholesaler that has a monopoly suddenly decides to become a retailer and a wholesaler at the same time. My guess is that Elysium is busy using part of its recent $20 million infusion to buy up other vendor's NR so that it can easily transition to a new Basis.Elysium must have always considered that ChromaDex could go retail with NR, and I bet heard of the plans to do so early last year, prompting the 4 times larger purchase last June.

 

ChromaDex looks vulnerable for a take over since it may have a very good product but bad management. Listen to the last guy who tells the CEO "Frank, you should consider resigning here. I'm really upset and can't believe the things I'm hearing. Great potential, but you haven't delivered."   The article that recommended shorting ChromaDex last spring was also revealing.  

 

 

Indeed many folks that serve as marketing, most do zip but just collect fees. Elysium is not busy buying another vendors NR because there is no other vendor. Chromadex is hardly vulnerable, they just got 25MUSD and now 20% of shares are held by Asia's richest man. You think Li Ka-shing and his gang will yield to Elysium intimidation....?
 

[MikeDC]

Now that human study on the health benefit of NR has been completed and being published, the CEO should start closing some deals or he is fired.

[stefan_001]

Now that human study on the health benefit of NR has been completed and being published, the CEO should start closing some deals or he is fired.

Horizons get 2 board seats. I dont see the CEO getting fired too fast, he is a very large shareholder....Anyways talking about that trial hopefully we see those results soon.

Edited by stefan_001, 14 May 2017 - 08:27 PM.

[bluemoon]

Indeed many folks that serve as marketing, most do zip but just collect fees. Elysium is not busy buying another vendors NR because there is no other vendor. Chromadex is hardly vulnerable, they just got 25MUSD and now 20% of shares are held by Asia's richest man. You think Li Ka-shing and his gang will yield to Elysium intimidation....?

 

 

There are many vendors that are still selling NR. ChromaDex says it is cosidering buying back some to take it off the market. There is no reason that Elysium can't go to those and buy up NR as well. I highly doubt that Elysium didn't know what it was doing when it put in a large order last summer.

 

One of the last callers participating in the shareholders meeting reminded that CEO that the last time ChromaDex went the retail route that "It was a disaster." Maybe they learned from those mistakes, maybe not. Li Ka Shing put up money - he may himself want a new CEO to finally put ChromaDex in the right direction. A flat stock for years and years does not indicate a right direction.

[MikeDC]

ChromaDex has the power to ask vendors to send purchase orders every quarter so revenue will be smooth. They didn't bother to do that.

[Valijon]

So far Elysium is nothing more than a pill packer with no track record of bringing new ingredients to the market. Perhaps NR will be old technology at some point but thats years away. Anything replacing it will need to build a significant body of research evidence first. For NR that is now starting to be there. The best hope for Elysium is finding a supplier that can make NR without violating Chromadex IPR or then find a party that can make NMN at acceptable prices and that is willing to sell to them. Even then I am not convinced that NMN would get dietary status to quickly.

Elysium is a pill packer that happens to have 20 scientists on its advisory board including 7 Nobel laureates and just completed a 120 person study that has been sent (or will be sent) for peer review. Elysium never made false claims about NR and is selling it at a high price. ChromaDex's claim that it is "clearing the field" doesn't follow from its reasoning of low price vendors. If that was really the reason, they could just stop selling to the few offenders out of the 40.

I can't think of a case where a wholesaler that has a monopoly suddenly decides to become a retailer and a wholesaler at the same time. My guess is that Elysium is busy using part of its recent $20 million infusion to buy up other vendor's NR so that it can easily transition to a new Basis.Elysium must have always considered that ChromaDex could go retail with NR, and I bet heard of the plans to do so early last year, prompting the 4 times larger purchase last June.

ChromaDex looks vulnerable for a take over since it may have a very good product but bad management. Listen to the last guy who tells the CEO "Frank, you should consider resigning here. I'm really upset and can't believe the things I'm hearing. Great potential, but you haven't delivered." The article that recommended shorting ChromaDex last spring was also revealing.

This became a problem in the hobby business a few years ago. Where the wholesalers decided to open up their own retail websites. Putting the squeeze on smaller retailers of their products. Another problem came up is some of the large retailers decided to purchase the wholesalers for themselves. Suddenly retailers had swallowed up the manufacturers of major brands. I don't see this happening this last scenario repeating itself with Chromadex but, it could happen.

[MikeDC]

 

I can't think of a case where a wholesaler that has a monopoly suddenly decides to become a retailer and a wholesaler at the same time. My guess is that Elysium is busy using part of its recent $20 million infusion to buy up other vendor's NR so that it can easily transition to a new Basis.Elysium must have always considered that ChromaDex could go retail with NR, and I bet heard of the plans to do so early last year, prompting the 4 times larger purchase last June.

This became a problem in the hobby business a few years ago. Where the wholesalers decided to open up their own retail websites. Putting the squeeze on smaller retailers of their products. Another problem came up is some of the large retailers decided to purchase the wholesalers for themselves. Suddenly retailers had swallowed up the manufacturers of major brands. I don't see this happening this last scenario repeating itself with Chromadex but, it could happen.

 

I think ChromaDex's new strategy is no strategy. They can sell Niagen at the same time allowing others to sell. Reducing customers will not help them in anyway. If they want to keep the price high, they can just increase the cost of Niagen powders. What they lack is marketing and increasing awareness. The CEO has an excuse of no human data. Even if they have good human data, the sales will not increase overnight. People still need to be told. It just feels like ChromaDex management team is not very smart.

Edited by Michael, 16 May 2017 - 11:20 PM.
trim quotes

[Valijon]

They could do another round of funding, sell some debt. One of the biggest problems in business is reaching your target audience. They need to get some serious money flowing into advertising.

[bluemoon]

They could do another round of funding, sell some debt. One of the biggest problems in business is reaching your target audience. They need to get some serious money flowing into advertising.

 

Well, if ChromaDex wouldn't postpone releasing the "top line data" of its trial results that might be good data, unless the results weren't that impressive. It has been 10 months since Elysium has known the detailed results of its 120 person study yet they only released the percentage NR at 250 mg and 500 mg increased NAD+ levels without revealing any effects on the subjects. If they can't sell NR after this year than why bother making that study public?

 

ChromaDex's possible delay is more interesting. If they have found mildly positive effects at 300 mg but very good results at 1000 mg, they will have to figure out how much to recommend and charge, maybe based on an interpolation of the results. Maybe they determine a 600 mg pill also suggests strong enough positive effects. How many would pay $3.00 a day for possibly a reduction in blood pressure that is already possible with much cheaper medications? Just one example.

[MikeDC]

The CEO was excited about the data. So it must be good.
I think 8 weeks is too short time to have significant results. Guess Niagen is better than my expectations.

[bluemoon]

The CEO was excited about the data. So it must be good.
I think 8 weeks is too short time to have significant results. Guess Niagen is better than my expectations.

 

It isn't surprising the CEO claims he is excited at the last two shareholders conferences. I hope his excitement is well placed.

 

I think it was Elysium that stated the effects of Niagen can be seen within four weeks. 

[able]

Elysium just signed an 8 year lease for 7,000 sq ft office space.  Asking rent of  $75 a foot would make it over $50k a month.  

 

Doesn't sound like Elysium is worried about being cut off of their supply of NR.

 

They must have another source, plans to switch to NMN, or something...

 

https://commercialob...vanna-building/

Edited by able, 17 May 2017 - 03:31 PM.

[stefan_001]

Elysium just signed an 8 year lease for 7,000 sq ft office space. Asking rent of $75 a foot would make it over $50k a month.

Doesn't sound like Elysium is worried about being cut off of their supply of NR.

They must have another source, plans to switch to NMN, or something...

https://commercialob...vanna-building/

Then keep an eye on this, no filing yet.....+ negative for nad compounding request
https://google2.fda....dtd&getfields=*

[bluemoon]

By the way, why couldn't Elysium just buy NR from Chinese suppliers? Chromadex's patents aren't recognized there. Also, it isn't likely that the U.S. government would block NR imports since just a vitamin.  

[MikeDC]

US patents are recognized in China.
"In January 1992, the PRC entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with the United States government to provide copyright protection for all American "works" and for other foreign works. Several bilateral negotiations have been conducted between the two governments. At some points, trade sanctions were threatened by the two governments over IPRs issues. At the conclusion of negotiations in 1995, the Sino-US Agreement on Intellectual Property Rights was signed. In June 1996, the two governments entered into another agreement protecting American intellectual property in the PRC."

[bluemoon]

US patents are recognized in China.
"In January 1992, the PRC entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with the United States government to provide copyright protection for all American "works" and for other foreign works. Several bilateral negotiations have been conducted between the two governments. At some points, trade sanctions were threatened by the two governments over IPRs issues. At the conclusion of negotiations in 1995, the Sino-US Agreement on Intellectual Property Rights was signed. In June 1996, the two governments entered into another agreement protecting American intellectual property in the PRC."

 

But the reality is that the Chinese government chooses which patents to accept and which to ignore.  Patent litigation has rapidly increased in China over the last 10+ years, but it isn't clear what the Chinese would do about Chromadex's NR manufacturing patents. I could see Chinese companies selling NR for several years before the Chinese government might forbid it after a lengthy law suit. That would give Elysium plenty of time to transition to something new.

 

If David Sinclair gets a patent on his NMN "drug", I'm not sure what that means for NMN overall. Again, China could easily ignore it. 

Edited by bluemoon, 18 May 2017 - 02:55 PM.

[Valijon]

Its because the Chinese don't see NR as being lucrative yet. I'd bet most of them have never heard of it yet. Once they see it as profitable and can find customers, they will mass produce some NR. This is the way of things with the Chinese. I've watched this happening for well over a decade.

[able]

Search Alibaba.com for Nicotinamide Riboside and there are dozens of listing of Chinese companies that SAY they can supply it.

 

Whether they can or not?  I have no idea.

 

But even if they can, it seems like Elysium would still be in violation if they import and sell it.  

 

Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[Bryan_S]

Search Alibaba.com for Nicotinamide Riboside and there are dozens of listing of Chinese companies that SAY they can supply it.

 

Whether they can or not?  I have no idea.

 

But even if they can, it seems like Elysium would still be in violation if they import and sell it.  

 

Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

Look at the Nature posting, Leonard Guarente is a principle in Elysium and Shin-ichiro Imai is a principal researcher in NMN along with Sinclair. My speculation is they will continue along the NMN path but this remains to be seen. If you want to do the research I would look for patent applications for the manufacture of NMN and see who holds them.

 

As always JMHO