Why would God provide us with vague "clues" rather than obvious ones? Why is it that all of the "grand" miracles bestowed upon humanity by God supposedly happened in ancient times and none in modern times? And most importantly, what is the justification for infering an unobservable, unprovable omnicient being's motivations, and then using this ambigious supposition to inflate the bayesian probabilities of articles of faith? Come on Jay.
Sorry to take so long, I've been wrapped up in my own personal turmoils...
Anyway, the miracles question is a fun one, in a way. If we start (for the sake of argument, regardless of how absurd these starting conditions are) with the position that god wants us to choose, and that such a choice requires both doubt and proof (proof enough to even ask the question, but doubt enough to where we can reasonably not believe), then the miracles situation actually seems pretty obvious.
In more ancient times, when people knew less about the world, A) god could get away with bigger miracles, because there wasn't a "science" or "rational logic" that they were defying, and B) the people, not having a rational/scientific background, needed a bigger miracle to be convinced. It wouldn't take a bearded man parting the Red Sea to convince most people today of a supernatural power (be that power "god", or a man using god's power via "priesthood", or just telekinesis).
On the other hand, 3,000 years ago, even if you hadn't ever seen someone lift a rock with his mind (like Luke using the Force), it wasn't something that would strike you as patently impossible. Perhaps this person was just an alchemist/wizard, or someone just really in tune with nature. But fire raining down from the sky and destroying a city, now that's not your everyday run of the mill miracle.
Secondly, more large scale miracles could be had back then, because all we'd have is a written record of a bunch of dead guys. No "proof". If such a miracle happened today in Siberia, and someone claimed they saw the miracle, rather than just calling them bonkers, we could go there and see the landscape devastated. If we can't find evidence of a volcano, nuke, asteroid impact, or other physical explanation, then we'd be left wondering, "could this really have been god's hand?" (Not speaking about the 1908 event, though I see the parallel now.) Of course, weird theories about miniature black holes and magnetic dipoles and strange matter and such would pop up.
More importantly, if fire started raining down on San Francisco (since we're talking religion, I hope no one will be offended by my not-so-veiled destruction of, well, the types of people that live in SF. Not that I would want to see this happen, but as long as we're talking about god raining down fire, which traditionally happens to cities of "sin", it seemed as good a target as any), with camera crews recording the whole thing, and satellites and radar couldn't verify any incoming objects until fireballs burst into existence 50 km above the city, then it'd hardly be something we could dismiss as foolish mythology. We don't live in a day and age where god could destroy a city or part the seas and not give himself away.
Of course, the counter to this is, "How convenient, he only performs miracles in such a way that we can't prove they were caused by god.", etc. The unfalsifiable, by nature, which would be useful as a memetic device to capture people's hearts and minds. Oh, you're not supposed to question or doubt, but accept on faith. Which to a non-religionist can seem completely irrational.
Interestingly enough, the part that bugs me the most is the relationship between free will and faith.
I'll be tipping my hat here, but here goes:
The followng verses refer to a group of people who had been cast out of their synagogues because they were poor. Being told you can't be worthy to worship god because you're poor can be quite trying and depressing.
12 I say unto you, it is well that ye are cast out of your synagogues, that ye may be humble, and that ye may learn wisdom; for it is necessary that ye should learn wisdom; for it is because that ye are cast out, that ye are despised of your brethren because of your exceeding poverty, that ye are brought to a lowliness of heart; for ye are necessarily brought to be humble.
13 And now, because ye are compelled to be humble blessed are ye; for a man sometimes, if he is compelled to be humble, seeketh repentance; and now surely, whosoever repenteth shall find mercy; and he that findeth mercy and endureth to the end the same shall be saved.
Okay, so this prophet is speaking to this group of people, and saying that because they were compelled to be humble, they are blessed. In my mind, this isn't the best exercise of their free will. They didn't decide for themselves to be humble, and to repent, but did so to find solace in their oppression and depression. It's not quite the same as finding god with a gun to your head, but it's not far off either...
But it goes on:
14 And now, as I said unto you, that because ye were compelled to be humble ye were blessed, do ye not suppose that they are more blessed who truly humble themselves because of the word?
15 Yea, he that truly humbleth himself, and repenteth of his sins, and endureth to the end, the same shall be blessed—yea, much more blessed than they who are compelled to be humble because of their exceeding poverty.
16 Therefore, blessed are they who humble themselves without being compelled to be humble; or rather, in other words, blessed is he that believeth in the word of God, and is baptized without stubbornness of heart, yea, without being brought to know the word, or even compelled to know, before they will believe.
Ah, now we are getting to the heart of the matter. More blessed are those who humble themselves of their own choice, rather than being compelled.
On face value, this seemed so much more a sign of free will, and I used to like this set of verses (even though parts of it didn't sit well with me, and I couldn't figure out why). But then I wondered about this last part: "blessed is he that believeth in the word of God, and is baptized without stubbornness of heart, yea,
without being brought to know the word, or even compelled to know, before they will believe."
Believing in what then, if not the word of god, or being shown his power and miracles? Just knowing that it's true? How do people just know that it's true? The spirit whispered to them? The still small voice? Or it "just clicked", to use a modern idiom?
That's not free will, not in my book. The more I look at it, the more I see people being praised for accepting the "truth" without any evidence. It's one thing to be given small proofs with room for doubt, and decide to believe, but at what point are we just applying hope to something because we don't like the alternative? At what point are we being presented with A and B and choosing B "just because", for no defensible reason other than that it feels right?
How often do people get caught up in things like gambling, not because they're addicted, but because they have this vain fantasy hope that some higher power will intervene and help them out of a rut in their life by blessing them with luck in gambling? I heard a story about a woman who lost her home because she was failing financially, and when the new casino came to town, she spent the mortgage money "knowing" that god would bless her to win enough money to get out of debt. Instead of losing just the car, she lost everything!
Going by what just "feels right" or "touches my soul" hardly seems like a strong indicator of how well someone uses their free will. If anything, it sounds like poor stewardship. And this is to be praised above those who are compelled to be humble?
I don't know, doubts circulate, but it's funny, because most of the doubts aren't the points of absurdity and irrationality that I usually see from religion-bashers (not speaking to you Don, but just in general). After all, I see as much irrationality in the desires of some avid transhumanists to upload at the earliest convenience, firmly believing that there is nothing non-physical about human nature and experience, or at the least, believing there is nothing which couldn't be simulated in a simple binary computer with a hell of a lot of RAM and processing power. Sure, if you dive deeper, there is a possibility that any higher order physical processes (whether they be quantum in nature, or the very least, substrate dependent) will be open to our tinkering, but to believe that, without extreme doubts, is tantamount to believing that god will resurrect us one day. So I see irrationality on both sides of the divide, and it's not the beliefs then that are irrational, but how people apply them. Cosmos and others have done a good job of remaining non-committed, which is the best we can hope for right now (and where I feel myself increasingly being tugged).