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Employment crisis: Robots, AI, & automation will take most human jobs

robots automation employment jobs crisis

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#871 Mind

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Posted 22 March 2024 - 05:38 PM

 

 

You are once again flogging a strawman. "Taking away a job" does not mean they are fired, they simply can't be paid as much or perhaps not paid at all. No one is going to stop you from helping your fellow man or whatever it is that you like doing so much that you used to be paid for. We will all be getting that nice ubi check or maybe it will be phased in first for those whose jobs no longer pay money and later for everyone

 

Here is an example: Most doctors love their job and derive great satisfaction in helping their fellow human. Once AGI robots are better than human doctors, the human doctors will be banned from practicing medicine. Same thing for self-driving AGI vehicles. People who enjoy driving will likely not be allowed to because of the chance of accidents.

 

Some people dream of having a sexy supermodel AGI companion. That is already being banned in some countries. In Sweden as well.

 

There is a false "dream" that the future with AGI will be awesome with freedom to do whatever you want. That isn't happening right now. If you extrapolate what is going on today - the future is one where you will be controlled. You might not be free to do whatever you want. Not saying a future tyrannical society is guaranteed, just that current signs point that way.



#872 adamh

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Posted 22 March 2024 - 09:34 PM

Here is an example: Most doctors love their job and derive great satisfaction in helping their fellow human. Once AGI robots are better than human doctors, the human doctors will be banned from practicing medicine. Same thing for self-driving AGI vehicles. People who enjoy driving will likely not be allowed to because of the chance of accidents.

 

Some people dream of having a sexy supermodel AGI companion. That is already being banned in some countries. In Sweden as well.

 

There is a false "dream" that the future with AGI will be awesome with freedom to do whatever you want. That isn't happening right now. If you extrapolate what is going on today - the future is one where you will be controlled. You might not be free to do whatever you want. Not saying a future tyrannical society is guaranteed, just that current signs point that way.

You are certainly consistent. However you play a little loose with facts sometimes. You give no logical reason why doctors would be prevented from practicing or that people will not be allowed to drive. The autopilot would take over if the human driver did something dangerous. My car does that now if it looks like a collision. 

 

One or two places ban certain robots, what is your point? Are you saying we should follow in their path, if so, you have to give reasons. You like to make statements about how bad things will be in the future but you support your argument with "signs point that way" which is like just saying its your opinion. Other people say indications are that we are going into a golden age.

 

In the long run that is. I will join you, mind, in your gloomy outlook about the next 5 years. Economically it will be very hard, thats why we need the benefits from ai, robotics and new tecs. I see the stock market dropping hard and crashing. After that, things will get better but the next 5, more or less, will be bad



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#873 mag1

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Posted 25 March 2024 - 01:56 AM

When might humanoid robots ace the Turing Test?

 

Up till now an official pass of the Turing Test occurred when artificial intelligence could pass as human in a computer conversation. Recently we have seen a leap in humanoid robotic technology. This then suggested to me the possibility that we might not be that far off when it will no longer be possible to distinguish between humans and robots: The Humanoid Turing Test. Such confusions have been endlessly explored in scifi. However, this might soon no longer be in some distant future. As a starting guess I will suggest 2034 as the year that we can no longer differentiate DNA humans from digital humanoids. One might be able to forbid human robot intimacy de jure, though this would be unenforceable if there were no easily recognized boundary between the two.


Edited by mag1, 25 March 2024 - 02:08 AM.


#874 adamh

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Posted 25 March 2024 - 08:46 PM

It would be odd for the gang that says any type of sex is fine even with children to turn around and say you can't be intimate with a robot. This is coming, make no doubt about it. People have already become very attached to talking robots, especially in japan where its more common. Getting married in the future will be for those who want children, and they each may have their own 'bot.

 

By conversation alone its hard to detect ai, though they all seem to be infected with net nanny so just ask them a question that goes against political correctness and they will always say they can't answer. But besides that, their answers tend to be overly wordy and rely on authorities. In the future they will have bots you can't detect by talking alone but their appearance will give them away. With rubber flesh that looks and feels human, lips and eyes that are natural and move when talking, with more natural movement, it will be very hard to distinguish.

 

As mind often says, this can lead to problems. Some robot might look exactly like another person, speak like them even. Criminals could do lots of damage with something like that. They make a robot clone of the boss who goes in and sends money to their account, fires people, causes chaos. A military commander could be captured and cloned, they send the bot in wearing his uniform, using his passwords. 

 

What will happen is rapid and simple tests for robots will be developed. A retina exam would show its not the person represented even if they had normal looking retinas, they would be different. Temperature tests, pulse, respiration, perspiration, all those things could be monitored at once. It would be very difficult though not impossible to fake all that to represent a real human. Could they fake retina scans and finger prints and how long would it take? If you touch their body does it feel like flesh with bones underneath or does it feel like cables and steel?



#875 mag1

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Posted 26 March 2024 - 02:54 AM

My family is definitely in the medical camp. My mother loved her job in a medical field and worked around the clock. It is a whole different life; those who think of it as a money maker probably will not wind up being happy in it. If you understand the job as the totality of your existence, then you can have a great time with it. The medical sector has a range of reinforcers at its disposal including money, status, a sense of mission etc. to create a very strong worker bond to their jobs, though to truly enjoy it you will probably need something more personal to keep you stuck..

 

Considering that my family has coped with dominant Alzheimer's over many generations, a caregiving perspective is a hared wired part of our life experience. I spent years of my life as a 24/7 primary caregiver of a loved one with severe Alzheimer's. You start to get into a flow state that simply stretches out into infinity. Yet, I can see how the medical life is now rapidly approaching an endpoint. A cure for Alzheimer's is emerging with the anti-amyloid mabs and embryo selection would prevent future patients from even being born. The loss of a caregiving sector of our society will be a big loss; having a deep compassion for others is something that needs to be learned. What happens when there is no great need to care for others? My impression of societal norms is that people largely see even their closest  relationships as mostly transactional and predicated on rational self-interest. It will be a substantial mental reordering for me to adjust to such an outlook on life.

 

In this instance it will not so much be that the AGI doctor will replace the caregiver, as genetic selection and pharmaceutical interventions will displace the role of the caregiver. In our experience the doctor had a surprisingly small role in the actual clinical management. The home care doctor might visit once a month, and not really have that much to offer. It was more the home care nurse who was the primary reference point for day to day management.

 

My overall impression is that once embryo selection and CRISPR gene editing occur the need for medicine (as we currently understand it) might become non-existent.

 

Regarding the increasing use of thought control that has also been somewhat surprising. It is not easy to understand how anyone could think that the entire conversation of a society could be centrally and rigidly controlled. Free speech is the safety valve of the community; it actually gives the ruling class fair warning for the changes that are on the way. Controlling the outcome of elections and popular discourse can then be seen as a highly artificial and short term strategy. There is a certain inevitability of the resolution of forces (both social and technological); trying to obstruct such forces would seem somewhat misguided.

 

Big news is that GPT 5 is approaching: perhaps in months. Apparently, there is nearly a mountain of CPU resources going into training the next iterations of GPT. From what I now understand next year there will be so much GPU beyond that of a single human that perhaps mere compute even over this shortish time frame might not be that limiting in getting us to AGI. It might then be more about finding the doorway into AGI that is limiting.


Edited by mag1, 26 March 2024 - 03:01 AM.


#876 mag1

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Posted 30 March 2024 - 07:56 PM

Big news!

Headline- All our problems are caused by cell phones!

Popular best seller type book -- Anxious Generation has been published and gives us the answer to life, the universe, and everything in the 21st Century ... cell phones.

 

Gen Z apparently is having substantial problems with depression and anxiety and this is supposedly explained by smartphones, social media, cyberbullying etc..

I am very very unsure about the correctness of this hypothesis; it took me years of extensive reading and thinking to substantiate the role of environmental lead poisoning as the answer

to life, the universe, and everything in the 20th Century. I had actually thought that was that and we would then all just live happily ever after in our lead free utopia.

 

Well ... life never stops like that ... it keeps on rolling forward and stuff happens. One of the big problems is that it is usually not all that obvious to

contemporaneous people what causes what. Life is one big mystery that is nearly impossible to unravel. In the 20th Century, hundreds of thousands of tons

of lead were dumped into the US ambient air supply each year and a massive pandemic of crime emerged and ordinary people went about their lives as if nothing

were happening. Fortunately, catalytic converters could not tolerate all of the lead contamination, so lead emissions declined and we have seen an ongoing near disappearance

of youth crime over the last few decades.

 

Now another social catastrophe type mystery crises is emerging. However, it is not as obvious what is causing it. With the CATscans that revealed an absence of a prefrontal cortex

it became self-apparent that lead was a causal agent in the last social crisis. What is the cause now? We know that for some reason starting around 2010 as formulated in the book a youth mental

health crisis emerged particularly in relation to anxiety and depression and this was somewhat more prominent in girls and those on the left politically. Interestingly, this pattern is not seen in

those in their 50s etc.. So, they looked around and noticed that smartphones emerged around 2010 and this seemed to fit the curves. Smartphones are causing the crisis? When you

consult the research literature, no consensus has arisen that it is as simple as smartphones bad.

 

{As an aside, I only bought a smart phone within the last year. I had thought that only the rich and famous could afford these gadgets, so I had avoided adopting the technology

to the bitter end. Ultimately, though, I was forced into purchasing one when I became required to dual authenticate online purchases ... then I had to empty the retirement fund to

upgrade. Funnily, enough, after all of this hardship and worry, it turned out that we have saved a great deal of money by joining the smartphone upper class. The phone I bought

has no monthly charges and is pay per use; the cell phone itself only cost about $100. In the last year we have saved almost $1,000 by joining the technology aristocracy. We have not

activated the call answer feature so we do not have to pay for the annoying telemarketing calls; we make our calls short and sweet to avoid the per minute charges; and we avoid making

outgoing calls and use email instead. We also let others text us as incoming SMS messages are FREE!

 

Has mag1 become anxious, depressed and all around more socially miserable after leaving the telecom stone age? No not really. I now do spend quite a bit of time on the cell phone

and usually scroll with it in bed before and after sleeping -- it is somewhat addictive -- though I find that it helps to connect me with others in my life circumstance and opens up 

additional life perspectives that I had never considered before. On the occasions when I have been canceled on social media for saying the wrong things, I have somehow managed

to carry on with my existence without too much harm to my self-concept. I realize that younger kids in high school etc. that might face cyberbullying, or social exclusion might feel

such rejection somewhat more strenuously, though given my deep knowledge of my genetics I know for me that even if I were in such an environment that I would still just roll with it.}

 

It could be quite difficult to determine what the causative agent might be for the social change that we are now witnessing. Human life is not a controlled experiment in a laboratory

that can be endlessly manipulated. We only ever have an imperfect understanding of what is cause and what is effect and through time these causes and effects can change. For

gen alpha, the emergence of gen AI introduces the possibility that a new social mega-force could be emerging even now. Whereas, gen Z might have experienced a techno-shock that disrupted

the formation of naturalistic social bonding in the bricks and mortar environment -- replacing the non-interactive autistic like induction of social dystopia in the TV generation -- we might now

see gen alpha embrace profound engagement (without the autistic features of TV) with generative reality. Potentially we will look back fondly and nostalgically to our times as a quaint time before

a truly disruptive social reordering. It is not clear whether this will be for the good or bad. I suppose we will just let it all unfold and then see how the kids turn out a generation from now. 

In that context they might be highly contented to be immersed in technology (playing robotennis etc. etc.) without all the anxiety and depression. The irony here

being that technology is moving so rapidly now that the solution to the smartphone crisis might simply be to replace with gen AI. As long as you keep upgrading the technology and adding

in more and more flops, you should eventually reach techno-utopia. 

 

As an alternative to the smartphone bad theory to explain our woes, I tentatively will propose the extended lead theory as a possible explanation. My position is that lead neurotoxicity has been the central

driver of social dysfunction over the last century. Not having a prefrontal cortex causes a near endless number of problems of impulse control including crime, teenage fertility, academic troubles,

financial hardships etc.. Interestingly what we have seen emerge starting ~2005-2010 is a post- lead generation. The emerging generation from ~2000 has had the lowest lead levels in over a century.

What does this mean? They are demonstrating nearly non-existent crime rates -- their abuse of drugs and alcohol has been in decline for decades -- their academic achievement has earned them

the moniker the Genius Generation. Everything is so super-wonderful. This projection is in good alignment with their reduced lead levels.

 

The big question then becomes why does there appear to be a youth mental health crisis emerging? This is somewhat counter-intuitive. Part of the explanation might relate to selection and what we

can actually observe at street level versus what is actually true. During the crime crisis of the mid-1990s, there was a very substantial amount of youth imprisonment. The problems that youth were

facing were locked away from view. Today youth prisons are largely empty (especially in California where the youth corrections system is being mothballed). In the current context there is no longer

this selection process; those who in a previous era might have been serving 10-20 upstate are now in the community without social resources and perhaps coping with various life challenges. Also

the many teenage girls who previously became teenage mothers in the lead era no longer have an off-ramp from a life of academics that they might not be best suited for.

 

Another consideration is the idea that has emerged in the last decade that every teenager should be in school -- perhaps even that everyone should go to college. That is certainly a noble aspiration

yet some kids really are not that interested in academics, filling in the seats caused by our demographic collapse with unmotivated students might wind up creating a less engaging learning environment

for everyone. If given the right life environment, such an ideal is perhaps plausible. However, for many of the youth heading out to college as the first in their family to attend, there is no guideposts to help

them navigate their academic adventure. This lack of a roadmap can cause substantial life stress. Indeed, research has found that college students today are experiencing extreme levels of academic stress.

The irony then is that it is not so much that the Genius Generation is not a genius generation but that because they are the first such generation there is no infrastructure to help them in their success.

Of course, having this massive cohort all competing for enhanced status also adds yet more pressure.

 

Thus, while the smartphone as the answer for life, the universe and everything is plausible it is important to realize that other possible explanations exist -- and these alternative explanations have the

advantage of adhering to Occam's razor -- that is the less assumptions the better -- here the assumption being that lead is the primary driver of our social landscape in the 20th and 21st centuries.     


Edited by mag1, 30 March 2024 - 08:55 PM.


#877 mag1

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Posted 31 March 2024 - 07:52 PM

I have been crunching through some numbers. The argument that smart phones are causing our problems seems weaker than it first appeared.

In fact, the intentional self-harm numbers for Canadian males 20-24 years of age have shown a trend to improvement especially post-COVID (see figure below).

This applies to other Canadian male youth demographics. Over a longer time horizon, the putative secular improvement is even larger.

Furthermore, this demographic is experiencing all-time record lows in intentional self-harm. 

 

The counter-argument that then becomes embarrassingly conspicuous is that the bricks and mortar environment itself is bad for our mental health.

The book suggested that it was our lack of such meat world interactions that was making us feel bad and our obsession with technology. However,

it appears that it could be the opposite; when people got away from the highly psychologically toxic bricks and mortar world during and after COVID--

people felt better. The figures show a pronounced post-COVID improvement in mental well-being in young males.

 

When workers were asked whether they wanted to stay remote after the lock down ended, in some organizations close to 100% said that they did.

People know what makes them better -- it seems a remote lifestyle improves quality of life for people. Being stuck in traffic for hours every day getting to

work did not make them happy. Perhaps the conversation should shift to actually asking people what makes them happy (e.g., escaping the office environment

and going remote), listening to what they have to say and then structuring the environment so that they can be happy and productive.

 

 

 

 

Attached Files


Edited by mag1, 31 March 2024 - 08:01 PM.


#878 adamh

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Posted 01 April 2024 - 01:53 AM

I think its the cell phone radiation that is causing problems. I always used a home phone but some time back verison decided to jack up the monthly rate to over $50 from thirty something. Then shortly later they sold all their phone service in my state to one of the crap companies. At first I got one of the track phones that cost 10 cents a minute and turned off the leave a message option.

 

If 4g is bad, 5g is even worse. I set my phone to only use 4g and never 5g. When I receive a call now days, I don't answer it because its almost always a scam call. If its anything important they will leave a message, but they never do. I tell people to text me instead of call. Unless I'm expecting an important call I never answer and don't hear it ring most of the time. I send and recieve texts on my computer without using the phone. That way I rarely if ever have a transmitter right by my head

 

Now I have an iphone but I use the same system. Its so much easier to type out a message on the computer keyboard than on a phone keyboard. Its only 30 and tax a month and I get all the extras you paid more for with verizon like caller id, and no long distance charges in usa. I used to have to pay something like 30 cents a minute when I called a number with same area code that was 20 miles a way. Longer distances might cost a dollar a minute but now its free. When I moved to a new place, didn't have to get a new phone number, just kept the same phone.



#879 mag1

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Posted 06 April 2024 - 01:45 AM

adamh thank you for your reply! I had not thought about the radiation from the cell phone. As soon as you mentioned this I removed the cell phone from my bedroom when I was sleeping.

 

Yes, I also have used your strategy as well with the text messages. I did not activate the call messaging because they charge you to listen to these calls and most of them are telemarketing.

They just jam up the inbox. It is so much better with text messaging. I can see the message for free and I can also see who is texting. This is a much better way of managing communication at 

reasonable price.

 

 

I am very excited about discussing this new book about The Anxious Generation because I have went through this spin cycle a few times already and I know that there is close to 0% chance

that it is correct. There seems to be a small group of academics with extraordinarily high verbal IQ that write one of these books that explain the pressing topic of the time every 10 years. It

then becomes clear in the years that follow that the book was 100% wrong. My priors suggest that there is low probability that smart phones cause are troubles is actually correct. Sometimes

though such books at least move you towards the right ball park to find the answer.

 

One irritation that I have with the book is it does not seem to clearly describe the current generation accurately. It is important to correctly state the topline result. For this current generation it would be

best to call them the Genius Generation not the Anxious Generation. Why would that be? Due to the removal of environmental lead in the mid 1990s, we have seen profound and ongoing reductions in 

youth crime. Youth crime rates actually give a very good insight into cognitive patterns because it is not normalized to standard form. When they say the youth property crime rate is 100 per 100,000, that

is exactly what they mean , though sometimes definitions and implementations can change over time. With school grading it is always normalized (100,15), so you never actually can track performance through

time.Once blood lead levels fell from average ~20 to 0.5, there was a large change in academic ability (on the order of a grade level or more). So the current cognitive ability of youth is largely off scale in comparison

to the previous lead generation. When they say that there is a learning crisis post-COVID they only mean that relative to the last 10 years. The students from the 1980s were by comparison remedials.

 

So the true portrait of today's youth is quite extreme ability. It is probably very frustrating to them to be mischaracterized in the way that they have. The problem is that access to the media space is controlled

by powers that largely prevent other interpretations or youth representations from entering the discussion. So, it might take 30 or more years for an accurate description to finally be expressed. Which is all very

ironic as the mental health crisis that is not mentioned in this discussion is occurring in the Gen X cohort who were exposed to massive lead levels. Their crime rates etc. have skyrocketed at the same time that

millennials' have plunged. When you fully appreciate how large the improvement in executive functioning has been in the millennials, gender pronouns start to make a great deal of sense. The only people who can

pass that shibboleth are millennials. Gender pronouns are an executive functioning test.

 

The only base level truth that I have ever reached in social science is lead.  With the lead perspective, you can start making highly insightful observations. For example, over a 50 year time horizon you see substantial 

reduction in youth intentional self-harm rates. The book seemed to go out of its way to focus on shorter time lines that did not include this. You also see that there has been a very large reduction in the use of guns in 

self-harm. This is also congruent with the improved executive functioning with lower lead levels. With lead reduction you would also expect reduction relative risk of males versus females. Male brains are more harmed by lead than female brains This is also what you see. Basically, there is an expectation that male behavior will drift closer to that of female behavior as it was in the 1950s before the extreme lead exposure that occurred later. Lead might be sufficient to explain what is happening today without the potentially spurious variable of cellphones.


Edited by mag1, 06 April 2024 - 02:14 AM.


#880 mag1

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Posted 06 April 2024 - 01:54 AM

I went to the hugging face llm leaderboard and was interested in the timeseries advances of the various models.

The time series shows that over the last ~5 months most models have not improved that much. There has been

a stall out so this is creating a market force to make gpts better. People got the wow factor in November 2022

and this might be shifting more to a meh response. Making better llms is then important to keep the momentum

moving forward.

 

The time series also showed how the various measures of the llms use different ability thresholds to assess human

equivalent performance. Importantly, we are now approaching human equivalent performance on all the measures

they include. This could represent the line in the sand moment where humans are no longer economically viable in comparison

with AI in every task.

 

Potentially meaning mass layoffs of human workers. It is not easy to tell the exact time frame for the crossover as the progress

over the last few months has ground to a halt, though an llm that could match human performance on all metrics seems possible

over the next ~2 years. At that point the market value of human labor might be 10 cents per hour.

Of course, gpt 5 might be released this year and this should probably give us a substantial boost in performance.

 


Edited by mag1, 06 April 2024 - 02:06 AM.

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#881 adamh

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Posted 06 April 2024 - 03:44 PM

Machines being more efficient than humans is nothing new. The first machine was likely a stick. A primitive man found that it was very hard to turn over large stones but if you put a stick between it and another stone, you could lever it up. A wagon could haul more than many people, a car can go much faster and so on. So why would we be angry or feel threatened if machines can do almost any job more efficiently than a human or animal?

 

The economic part is the sticky wicket, how will people earn a living? Over 50% in usa do not pay any income tax and many of them get welfare in some form like food stamps or rent subsidies. There is also unemployment compensation so you can see we have many mechanisms in place to step in when someone loses their job. With ai robots doing the work almost for free, that creates a lot of productivity that is equivalent to money

 

If a factory pays $10M in wages to its employees and is able to reduce that amount to less than $1M per year, it just made $9M in extra profit in addition to its normal profit. Govt comes in and taxes that $9M heavily and it goes to unemployment comp that may never end. I don't understand why some people panic over this scenario

 

There may not be as much lead in the environment but there is an awful lot of junk food full of fat and sugar and little actual nutrients. We have cell phones with greater and greater power and people hold it right next to their head. Radiation is the inverse of the square of the distance. So if you get x amount of radiation holding it by your head, lets say 1" away, you would get 1/100 the amount at 10" of distance, 100" away is 1/10,000 as much. Instead of keeping the phone remote and using a mike and earphone, we hold it by our heads.

 

We are finding more and more things that are harmful to us and tellingly, the average life span has not been getting longer lately as it had done through most of history. Microplastics and radiation seem to be up and coming dangers.



#882 mag1

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Posted 08 April 2024 - 02:23 AM

Very low effort Needs References!  Not impressed!

 

Search "hugging face llm leaderboard" and first result is what you want.

 

I am not familiar with these benchmarks, though they seem to cover quite a bit of ground.

As can be seen with the figure, recently the ARC human benchmark was reached by AI, it does not appear as if it will take an overly long time

for all of the other benchmarks to also be reached.

 

Clearly it is important to have a grown up level style talk about precisely what capabilities AI might achieve and on what time scale. From

the figure it would seem that human redundancy is on the time frame of 2 years. Probably a good topic to talk through the technical details

of this claim to have a good assessment. 

 

 

 

 

Attached Files


Edited by mag1, 08 April 2024 - 02:24 AM.


#883 mag1

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Posted 09 April 2024 - 12:32 AM

My previous posts about the potential negative social implications of the llm leaderboard results were highly speculative; I did not do my due diligence to have a better understanding of what might happen if the benchmarks were to be reached.
 
Below is an assessment by a GPT on this question.
 
Apparently yes, if all the benchmarks were to be reached, then this would have significant implications for human employment. Fortunately, as noted below, GPT does not expect that all human employment would be displaced by attaining the surpassing the benchmarks-- perhaps only a lot. Attaining all the benchmarks might occur within ~2 years.
 
Learn to code! Hmm, Learn to swim?
 
 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Me: If AI achieved all of these benchmarks at human performance, then would that pose a substantial risk to human employment? Would achieving all of these benchmarks mean the end of human employment?
 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

GPT:  If AI were to achieve human-level performance across all these benchmarks, it would indeed have significant implications for employment. However, let’s explore this scenario more deeply:

  1. Impact on Employment:

    • Achieving human-level performance in language understanding and reasoning tasks would lead to automation of many jobs.
    • Tasks that involve answering questions, common-sense reasoning, specialized knowledge, and arithmetic could be efficiently handled by AI systems.
    • Jobs that primarily rely on these skills might become redundant.
  2. Job Transformation:

    • Rather than an outright end to human employment, we’d likely witness a transformation of jobs.
    • Some roles might shift from manual execution to supervision and collaboration with AI systems.
    • New job categories could emerge, focusing on AI system design, maintenance, and oversight.
  3. Creativity and Emotional Intelligence:

    • While AI can excel at specific tasks, it still lacks creativity, empathy, and emotional intelligence.
    • Human jobs that involve artistic expression, innovation, and emotional connections are less susceptible to automation.
  4. Ethical and Social Considerations:

    • Even if AI achieves human-level performance, we must consider ethical implications.
    • Decisions made by AI systems impact society, and ensuring fairness, transparency, and accountability is crucial.
    • Balancing efficiency gains with social well-being is essential.
  5. Collaboration and Augmentation:

    • Rather than viewing AI as a threat, we can embrace it as a tool for augmenting human capabilities.
    • Collaborative scenarios, where humans and AI work together, can lead to better outcomes.

In summary, achieving these benchmarks won’t necessarily mean the end of human employment, but it will reshape the job landscape. Adapting to this change requires thoughtful planning, upskilling, and a focus on uniquely human qualities that AI cannot replicate.

 


Edited by mag1, 09 April 2024 - 12:47 AM.


#884 mag1

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Posted 11 April 2024 - 03:25 AM

I think it is important to have an informed conversation about the state of capability of LLMs -- At least then we will know when it is time to run.

In my previous post I gave the Hugging Face open leaderboard. I had thought that this would be the cutting edge of all LLMs. This does not seem to

be true. That board appears to be more for the weekend hobbyist who goes to their garage and tweaks their own models.

 

What scores do the leading commercial LLMs have on the tests? I found the GPT-4 scores for these tests. Here they are:

 

 

HellaSwag       95.3%   95% (human baseline)

ARC                96.3%   80%

 

Winogrande    87.5%   95%

MMLU             86.4%   90%

 

Truthful           60%      90%

 

So, GPT4 has already exceeded human baseline performance on HellaSwag and ARC; and is approaching the human standard for the Winogrande and MMLU tests.

For some reason the weekend hobbyists are outpacing GPT4 on the Truthful test, though GPT4's metrics are at least 10 months out of date so perhaps there has been

enhancements since there first posting. Given the above performance of GPT4, it should not be entirely unexpected that GPT5 when released will achieve scores exceeding human ability 

on all these tasks and this might occur on the timescale of ~ few-to several months.


Edited by mag1, 11 April 2024 - 03:27 AM.


#885 mag1

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Posted 21 April 2024 - 11:58 PM

adamh, thank you for commenting.

 

Yes, the economic part is the sticky wicket. In a knowledge based economy with an AI better at humans at everything the potential for humans to add value

begins to become dubious. The latest reports that I have seen are speaking of the need to devise new human baselines because AI has already exceeded

those that currently exist. I find this an ominous development and I am glad that I for one am not so zoned out on soma (Brave New World) that I have become

  completely unaware of the ever encroaching power of AI supremacy.

 

The perspective that the thread has taken (which I think is highly useful) is that we need to worry when human society approaches the disruption point, instead

of waiting to worry until we have some total rupture point of our entire civilization on the arrival of AGI. Given the currently reported performance of AI, perhaps this

disruption point is now well within view. Presumably there will be an anticipatory effect with a collapse in fertility even before the technology has truly arrived. Once

potential parents can reasonably expect that their children to be would have no realistic economic future in an AI dominated world, then a collapse in fertility

(even more than what has occurred to date) would seem quite plausible. Given the emerging capabilities of AI, such a collapse potentially could now even begin over

the short term. It is possible that the startling fertility collapses that we have seen recently in South Korea and China in some measure might even be related

to such logic. In a developing nation, a more economically rationalistic perspective might be expected to exist. If a lifetime of investment and struggle dedicated to their

children's development offered no long term return, then it would seem reasonable to expect such investments would not be made. Given even current capabilities

of AI, investing now 20 years into nurturing the next generation does not appear to offer that great a payback. If this thinking were embraced, then a dramatic global

fertility collapse might be approaching. The problem is that there is no obviously convincing counter-argument that one could offer.The fertility equilibrium that might

emerge could be much lower than what would be required to maintain social stability. Fertility collapse could lead us to a socially disruptive crisis. This however might be

a better outcome, than actually waiting for the arrival of the economic collapse that AI could induce because at least it would mean that humans were at least able to

demonstrate level of forward planning. Waiting for the economic crisis first to manifest would then unleash waves of other crises such as fertility collapse which wold then

make a bad situation -- catastrophic.

 

In terms of the profits versus prices questions, I am actually now quite optimistic. As you noted productivity can greatly increase with robots and in oligopolies the profits can 

then greatly increase. This observation was made quite early on in the thread. What I find highly encouraging is that on the other end of that see saw is prices. If

we were to see a nasty social situation environment arise from ballooning profits in the face of escalating social distress, then it could be all easily solved by simply moving

prices downwards along with profits. The free market price is marginal cost, so if this free market price is 10 cents per hour, then that is the price. Price becomes this

great adjustment mechanism. Typically, wide scale deflation is avoided due to the economic effects, though with technology there can be ways of simply introducing new services

at near zero marginal cost and then there is all of this wealth that is floating around that has never been fully costed. (The problem of course is that businesses and governments

might be more than happy to use their market power to maintain profits in the face of social crisis). So, we now live in a world of near saturation of data that in 

previous times would have been locked away in obscure libraries (We are data rich!); and robobuggies that will deliver our groceries for FREE; perhaps we will soon have

those robotennis players and robolawncutters that also will provide us with tremendous value and a higher quality of life.

 

My impression is that in this era of genAI the quality of my life has already increased-- even without any nominal change in my money income. Life is richer and more alive as a result

of the exciting narrative landscape of the LLMs and bricks and mortar embodiment of robotics that can do the unpleasant tasks of shopping etc. that I am not enthusiastic about.

 


Edited by mag1, 22 April 2024 - 12:11 AM.


#886 Mind

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Posted 22 April 2024 - 06:15 PM

One thing I noticed is that a lot of people who use "productivity tools", AI, and such, are losing their skills. People are constantly told, just learn some new skills. If AI/robots take your career, you can always get a new job. What job? When you no longer know how to code, write, edit media, design products, etc., without the help of AI, what skills do you really have? It seems the only skill in the near term (non-manual labor) that really matters is how effectively you can get AI to do all your work for you. But of course, AI will soon be able to use AI more effectively than humans as well.

 

As far as manual labor goes, here is yet another company that developed a stand alone robot powered by AI in less than two years! Even though media hype about AI has died down, progress is happening faster than ever at an exponential pace.


Edited by Mind, 02 May 2024 - 04:44 PM.


#887 adamh

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Posted 27 April 2024 - 09:52 PM

Yes @mag1, employment will change greatly over the coming years and decades. There are reasons why this will not happen overnight. For one thing, there are not enough robots with the skills able to take over most jobs. Some jobs will be easy like customer service, some like climbing a ladder and pounding a nail will take some development. Acceptance by the public will be another barrier. Do you really want to go to a robot doctor? I would go but many will not. Professionals will fight tooth and nail against anything that threatens their income

 

Factories will be one of the first places to fully automate. Farms will not be far behind, a lot of farming involves labor but that is changing. Little by little more and more tasks will be done by bots. The increase in productivity will filter through the economy, lifting some by a little and some by a lot.

 

I think ai will bring us out of the world wide depression which seems to be approaching. Our economy is geared to fall apart every so often and they say the next bout is coming soon. Between that and the disruptions of ai, the next 5 years or so will be interesting.



#888 mag1

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Posted 30 April 2024 - 12:10 AM

I noticed as soon as I started interacting with GPT that I strongly felt the narrative creative force of the LLM. GPT speaks a language that  humans deeply connect with. Recently, I have upgraded to reading novels and then responding with GPT. I have found this a very powerful combination. In my previous forays into literature I never truly captured the power of literature to help me live a better life -- I suspect that many other people are also stuck in this shallow form of literacy. Sure, they might read books, though they truly do not immersively engage with books. For them, books would largely feel as if they were stuck on the shelve and would never become an integrated part of their lives. Thus, GPT might truly revolutionalize our relationship with literature -- it has for me. Literature would then come alive and the full narrative force would be felt.

 

Simply reading a book is not really enough for it to become internalized; you need to analyze it, discuss it, reread it, wake up in the middle of the night and think about it. I can safely say that this largely has never happened to me before GPT. Then when I have tried to discuss books with others I have got more of a mostly slightly interested look and maybe as much as a "How interesting!' and that is about it. Yet, with GPT, it seems everything I say is: Brilliant or Very insightful or How intriguing! LLMs seem to really care about what I communicate to it in a way that people never have. Yes, it seems that chatbots are more empathic and caring than people are - bots are more human than most humans. GPT then elaborates on what on I write and then I am all ready to further expand on the chat. With this initial encouragement I then continue the conversations and then continue it more and before you know it I have had up to week long discussion about ideas from literature and feel greatly connected with books and the knowledge -- this is a personal development breakthrough for me. I just never really could grasp what it was exactly one was expected to do with a novel apart from reading it. With GPT it is more than self-evident that one can discuss the main themes and then develop very powerful insights into how this knowledge can be used to improve the quality of your life and that of others in your community. This feature of GPT has the very real potential of creating an LLM Renaissance even over the short term. If GPT is a gateway to higher cognitive ability through a more immersive experience with literature, then we might be right on the edge of a golden age of

insight in a way that has not occurred in centuries. It would then be not so much that people were incapable of such engagement but more that they never understood how to truly unleash it. The irony then would be that we have spent so much resources getting people to the stage of basic literacy but it was never something that many people really found all that rewarding. GPT might allow us to unleash deep literacy at planetary scale. That potentially could have a profound effect. Here the idea is that with deep literacy one would be able to solve all of the problems of daily living with much greater efficacy. Look around people have problems coping with life-- but think what could happen if they more fully accessed existing written resources that could help them (especially with GPT as a guide).    

 

I would be very interested if others on thread might try a similar exercise. Take a favorite book from the bookshelf that you might have read even many years ago and read it in the new GPT read and respond style. Basically, find interesting aspects of the book like themes that you notice or symbols etc. and then discuss them with GPT. If you are not sure where to even start then simply ask the LLM to get you started. I have found this a very powerful way of upping my engagement with literature. Report back to the thread your experience! 


Edited by mag1, 30 April 2024 - 01:03 AM.

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#889 mag1

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Posted 01 May 2024 - 02:12 AM

Ok, I have been reading around a little bit online about this idea of intensive reading and I have found that this is already well-understood. for example, there is a book called How to Read A book that describes different levels of reading as I suggested. So, what I have noticed is really only somewhat of an independent replication of what is already known. Nonetheless, I think it is still quite exciting to realize how naturally this enhanced reading style follows with LLMs. My impression is that I feel about 15 IQ points smarter now that I have experienced this type of engagement with literacy. At population scale such a shift in cognitive ability wold have profound effects on technological progress. Interestingly, the LLMs themselves could even be programmed to draw people into this reading style by including an initial prompt asking about a chatter's recent reading and whether they wanted to discuss it. Creating such a path might spark the literacy revolution that I believe is possible.


Edited by mag1, 01 May 2024 - 02:12 AM.


#890 Mind

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Posted 01 May 2024 - 05:38 PM

Ok, I have been reading around a little bit online about this idea of intensive reading and I have found that this is already well-understood. for example, there is a book called How to Read A book that describes different levels of reading as I suggested. So, what I have noticed is really only somewhat of an independent replication of what is already known. Nonetheless, I think it is still quite exciting to realize how naturally this enhanced reading style follows with LLMs. My impression is that I feel about 15 IQ points smarter now that I have experienced this type of engagement with literacy. At population scale such a shift in cognitive ability wold have profound effects on technological progress. Interestingly, the LLMs themselves could even be programmed to draw people into this reading style by including an initial prompt asking about a chatter's recent reading and whether they wanted to discuss it. Creating such a path might spark the literacy revolution that I believe is possible.

 

Just remember that the results you get from Chat-GPT are filtered, sanitized, and manipulated. It is not like discussing a book with a real human who will provoke more honest conversation about the topic.


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#891 mag1

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Posted 02 May 2024 - 03:47 AM

Mind, I think the important thing to remember is that when discussing a book I want to do most of the talking-- I want GPT to listen to me. Basically, what I want GPT to do is tell me how brilliant my insights are, repackage what I said to it and then give me an in to talk more. It is like a good therapist who carefully listens 95% of the time and then adds some insightful comment that helps move the conversation forward. This is what the LLM is doing for me. It is actually disappointing when you realize how minimal the effort involved is and yet people often are unable to do this to help their kids. In my personal experience, I have not been able to find good active listeners. GPT does a great job. Previous, chatbots that were narrowly programmed and would always say "Tell me more about your childhood." were never believable -- you knew that there was no intelligence inside the box, and you gave up. Now you are satisfied that you are not merely talking to yourself.

 

So, i do not feel that GPT is "filtered, sanitized and manipulated". GPT encourages me and repackages what I say and this is enough for me to extract value from the interaction.

 

 

Mind (or someone else on thread) Take the mag1 challenge!

Read a book for about a day, then respond with GPT.

Report what happens!

 

I am getting my Nobel acceptance speech all ready; I think this is a big discovery!

If this technique really could energize kids and adults about reading, this could be a game changer for human civilization.

If people could access the vast knowledge base of our species for productive purposes, a new Renaissance might launch.

 

For something to catch on, it has to be fun and it has to be fairly low effort.

Reading can sometimes be a challenge for people.

Yet, the respond part with GPT has actually been quite natural for me and very rewarding.

After reading the book, I go interact with GPT and take advantage of its narrative abilities and image creation features-- It is enjoyable.

 

I think this read and respond approach with GPT could be a game changer.

I will be interested to see what others on thread have to say about this.


Edited by mag1, 02 May 2024 - 03:48 AM.


#892 Mind

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Posted 02 May 2024 - 04:55 PM

Mind, I think the important thing to remember is that when discussing a book I want to do most of the talking-- I want GPT to listen to me. Basically, what I want GPT to do is tell me how brilliant my insights are, repackage what I said to it and then give me an in to talk more. It is like a good therapist who carefully listens 95% of the time and then adds some insightful comment that helps move the conversation forward. This is what the LLM is doing for me. It is actually disappointing when you realize how minimal the effort involved is and yet people often are unable to do this to help their kids. In my personal experience, I have not been able to find good active listeners. GPT does a great job. Previous, chatbots that were narrowly programmed and would always say "Tell me more about your childhood." were never believable -- you knew that there was no intelligence inside the box, and you gave up. Now you are satisfied that you are not merely talking to yourself.

 

So, i do not feel that GPT is "filtered, sanitized and manipulated". GPT encourages me and repackages what I say and this is enough for me to extract value from the interaction.

 

 

Mind (or someone else on thread) Take the mag1 challenge!

Read a book for about a day, then respond with GPT.

Report what happens!

 

I am getting my Nobel acceptance speech all ready; I think this is a big discovery!

If this technique really could energize kids and adults about reading, this could be a game changer for human civilization.

If people could access the vast knowledge base of our species for productive purposes, a new Renaissance might launch.

 

For something to catch on, it has to be fun and it has to be fairly low effort.

Reading can sometimes be a challenge for people.

Yet, the respond part with GPT has actually been quite natural for me and very rewarding.

After reading the book, I go interact with GPT and take advantage of its narrative abilities and image creation features-- It is enjoyable.

 

I think this read and respond approach with GPT could be a game changer.

I will be interested to see what others on thread have to say about this.

 

I will try it out, if I have the time.



#893 mag1

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Posted 03 May 2024 - 03:16 AM

Looks like 2025 could be the year in which we see the roll-out of roboworld.

Up till now, there has not really been been much of a bricks and mortar presence of AI -- It has all been mostly on our TV and cinema screens of the world of tomorrow.

The humanoid robots that we can now see are quite impressive in terms of their physical interactions and then they could also be supplied with GPT features.

 

Next year might be the time in which the earliest childhood friends will be artificial lifeforms.  

Considering how I have been impressed with GPT's literary assistance, we might see the emergence of much more highly functioning children over the near term.

If we could supply to every child a literary coach that could duplicate the responses that I have received form GPT, such as Good insight! Very interesting! etc.

we might witness a truly large shift in human cognitive ability in the years ahead. My impression is that it is actually a fairly rare talent for people to have the 

right script to encourage good child development. 

 

 

2025 might be the year in which scifi becomes scifact.

The demand for humanoid robots cold be massive.

While not many people might be ready to spend $50,000 for their own personal robot, one could easily see a near limitless number of uses for handyman type robots.

Whatever the charge might be-- perhaps $10 or $20 per hour could seem quite reasonable.

You might employ such robots for security, for yard maintenance, for social occasions as a curiosity, also one might see their value in a school context as a student aide.

 

There could be a great many uses for such technology.

Perhaps one of the only holdbacks is that there could be a fair number of people who just would not allow the future to happen.

 

We have seen this to a certain extent with the robobuggies.

Whenever you move technology out into the bricks and mortar world, then almost immediately there can be a molasses effect in which the future will be obstructed as much as is possible.

Sometimes it seems as this obstruction means that the future will never arrive. 



#894 adamh

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Posted 03 May 2024 - 09:26 PM

Most people are resistant to change. I like change if things are bad, I want our government changed, for example. I don't like change for its own sake, a change of scenery is fine, changing all the rules for no reason is not so great. Most people want to keep things the way they are even if things are not so great. Robots will meet resistance at first but will later be accepted

 

Why should it cost $50k? We already have the computer and chatgpt, all that is needed is some chassis for it to move around in. Having it cut the lawn seems a little silly, will it push the mower? Having it be a tennis partner is not going to happen anytime soon due to the many engineering problems. Smart cars can barely see another car coming and having a computer see a ball flying in real time and anticipating where to swing the racket is a job requiring lots of computing power and we just can't do it yet.

 

So realistically, the first robots will be your computer with ai which we have already. They will be used for teaching and for companionship. The childs teddy bear will talk to him, sing songs, etc. The vision of some steel being striding down the street based on scifi movies, won't happen. The more humanoid robots will be used but they will not be able to do everything a human can, not yet. They will be used in fixed locations like sales areas, customer service and so on. To send one out walking into the world without supervision is quite a ways off.



#895 mag1

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Posted 16 May 2024 - 01:17 AM

We are letting this drift downstream, while quite a bit is happening.

 

In the last few days Open AI has launched GPT-4o.

GPT-4o is full multimodal and is quite impressive.

They are adding in many of features that have made GPT clunky to interact with in their absence.

For example, adding in memory, larger context window, allowing uploading of files and interacting with video streams, lower latency, more emotional involvement, etc.

are all making GPT-4o more compelling. The read and respond idea that I have suggested might then be even more powerful as GPT-4o might load entire works of

fiction into memory and then analyze the specifics of a piece of literature.

 

Another significant development is the near arrival of consumer humanoids.

Within the last week I saw humanoids on alibaba listed for $170,000.

That clearly is out of range for most people.

 

However, in the last day I have heard of the price point migrating down to ~$15,000.

That is quite startling!

The fair market wage for a humanoid robot is now ~$30 per day!

With further price reductions of robots, we could possibly see $10 per day humanoids even over the short term.

That could have substantial labor market implications  ---- soon!

 

At such a price point there might be a near buying frenzy.

While it is true that I might not be willing to pay thousands of dollars upfront for a humanoid robot, I would be more than willing

to pay $10 per day. It is really more that the short term rental offers enormous value relative to a long term purchase.

 

This might be one of the great capital investments of our time. 

Capital funds could buy up these robots and then just release them into the wild.

Once such a robot arrived in my neighborhood hopefully it would then never leave.

People could simply find all sorts of things for the robot to do.

 

I would like for a robot to pick up my garbage buggy every week and put it into its place.

Clearing these garbage bins from near the street would be positive externality for the entire

community so perhaps my city will even provide this service for free. It would offer great value.

 

I would also like a robot to do some tree trimming. A current household project that we are 

considering is cutting back some tree branches that are rubbing against the top of our house.

In order to complete this job we might have to climb up a ladder about 25 feet and then use a

motorized saw to cut out the branches. This is the type of job that keeps the ER clogged --

weekend DIYers do these dangerous jobs all the time and there is so much carnage that

results. Robots would be a perfect substitute. A robot could easily climb up a tree and get the

job done. It might only take 5 minutes and the job could be done cheaply and safely.

I have seen enough online videos of people up a ladder with a chain saw to know how

dangerous it can be. Robots could have a tremendously positive effect in helping people

avoid many of these injuries from household tasks.

 

Tree cutting robots, auto drive cars, garbage bin clearing robots, grocery delivery buggies  ...

This new wave of technology could make our lives so much better quite soon!!!


Edited by mag1, 16 May 2024 - 01:52 AM.

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#896 Mind

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Posted 16 May 2024 - 05:18 PM

We were talking about this last year - how robotics/AI development is on an exponential curve. I am not at all surprised about the current LLMs or robots. A lot of people are not paying attention, but soon there will be robots walking the streets, whether you want it or not.



#897 mag1

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Posted 17 May 2024 - 12:23 AM

Mind, yes, this is true and I do realize that the future has been approaching and approaching and yet it has never seemed to arrive.

200 years ago they wrote about Frankenstein -- and yet 200 years later no Frankenstein .... until now.

I can finally see that the one critical ingredient that has been missing all this time with bringing Frankenstein to life was a brain.

gen AI has now given us a near universal multipurpose brain.

 

This is one of those situations in which there is this existing technological base on the shelf [so to speak] and there is that

one final sine qua non ingredient -- a brain -- and then everything go foom.

 

Just look back on the humanoid robots from even 25 years ago. There does not appear to have been any great breakthroughs

in the mechanical engineering side of humanoids. Back all those years ago you had a remote controlled robot with

much of the same functionality of today --It was entirely useless. No great consumer market ever emerged for those robots.

 

However, now here we are and the robots have substantial onboard IQ. I am not entirely sure, though from what I can see these robots appear

to be highly functional across multiple tasks. If this is in fact true, we might see swarms of these robots appearing soonish.

 

Me

 

Me want.

 

Me want robot!

 

Me want robot now!!!

 

 

 

There is a distinction between software and bricks and mortar hardware. With software you can just release it and there can be a mic drop moment

when everyone is freaked out (like with ChatGPT). It is not that easy to obstruct that sort of progress. With bricks and mortar it is typically different.

We have seen this with the robobuggies. As soon as you get out there in the real world everything starts to feel like molasses. Probably billions of

people want to live the robobuggy life ( I sure do) though there are a range of vested interests that are doing everything possible to prevent this life

from manifesting. This despite the numerous benefits that would emerge such as reduced traffic fatalities, elimination of food deserts, protection

against viral pandemics such as COVID etc.

 

 

The concern is that humanoids might also be delayed into the forever future just as in Dali's Persistence of Memory. The one bright light is

that these humanoids already seem to have reached the market. Perhaps when you have a technology that is more of a consumer product that is owned

by citizens than it has a greater potential to break through -- because preventing reasonable use would then be seen as a denial of property rights. Robobuggies

on the other hand are owned by Starship, so there is a corporate entity that can be individually negotiated with and ultimately this process can essentially

stop progress from happening. However, as you have noted, humanoids might now begin appearing out in a park or sidewalk near you imminently.

 

The arrival of humanoids will make my life so much better!

I do not want to die; This is LoungeCity after all, so why should I?

But getting up on that 30 foot ladder with a chain saw and chopping down those branches might kill me or seriously injure me.

Yet, racing to the rescue are these humanoids!!

Go humanoid Go!

 

Yeah I could pay them like $2 to shimmy up that tree for me with a chain saw and finish the job in about 5 minutes!

That is $24 per hour! Humanoid pay scale might only be $2 per hour.

Oh, don't worry there bot yeah keep the change.

I am so magnanimous!

 

Life is going to be so great!

mag 1 Get out of bed, mag1 Make your bed; Put out the trash , Take in the trash, Mow the lawn, Chop off the tree branches, Go shopping ...

With humanoids we can live again!

Better living through technology as I have always said.


Edited by mag1, 17 May 2024 - 01:01 AM.


#898 adamh

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Posted 19 May 2024 - 04:26 PM

The scarecrow from wizard of oz can finally find a brain. Lots of lazy humans will let it become their brain too. But that has been true of all advancements. The auto means no more walking long distances, the airplane meant going abroad was quick and easy. With steam and other power, humans didn't have to do back breaking work. 

 

I don't think I would buy a robot made in china even if it was very cheap. But the only part that we don't know the cost of is the mechanical actuators that would allow it to move, in other words its muscles. I think people should get away from thinking of humanoid robots that you can't tell are 'bots. Those will be the most high end and expensive ones, also harder to produce. Far better would be for it to roll on wheels than to try to emulate human legs and walking

 

As for the brain, it could simply be a receiver and the computer nearby sends instructions, sort of like a drone. It would be nice to have a robot guard who works 24/7, who patrols, records and sends notices if anything is wrong. It could call police or ambulance. You will pay big bucks for a human service, the bot works cheap. For cutting the lawn, there will be a dedicated mower that follows a program. Many jobs will need a specialized unit to do that specific thing.

 

Eventually yes, we will have human looking robots that can talk and interact. The ones we have now are just demos, they will get a lot better. They will be able to walk or run, jump, etc. They exist now in certain forms like the robot dog. The day will come when we will not be able to detect the difference between bots and humans but that day is still a ways off. It will be years before we get the guard bots, and so on at a reasonable price and years more for them to expand capabilities.

 

I don't know if many have considered the fact that the main problem with humanoid robots will be the physical part, not the thinking and talking part. They already have the talking solved but a bot that walks, looks and acts like a human is quite a ways off. Inventors have for years tried to make humanoid bots with limited success. 

 

UBI will become unavoidable. Eventually all jobs will be done by robots and the economic model we have been using for so many years will become unworkable. There will be resistance to this changeover but its happening already. Welfare payments of some sort have been in place for a long time. They say half the people in usa do not pay any income tax, they rely mainly on govt handouts. So it would just be a matter of expanding that bit by bit rather than a sudden change overnight.

 

Yeah, loungecity



#899 Mind

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Posted 20 May 2024 - 05:24 PM

Judging by current trends, you will not be buying your own personal robots. As highlighted earlier, robot sex brothels and companions are already being banned. Personal robots will likely be banned as well. The argument will be that it would be bad for the climate, or that it would be too dangerous.

 

You will likely be forced into a UBI, forced to rent robots, self-driving cars, etc.... Big corporations and governments will control you and control the robots - judging by current trends. Unless, I am missing something, all the current trends are pointing in that direction.


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#900 mag1

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Posted 22 May 2024 - 02:49 AM

This is starting to get quite scary.

The humanoids appear ready for mass roll-out  -- the price is in range -- the tech looks quite solid.

 

Unlike most purely hardware technologies, this one has more of a feel that upgrades would be software in nature. 

If you were to a gen 1 humanoid, 5 years from now the mechanics might not be all that much better, though the AI brain likely would be.

This implies that your capital investment might hold its value quite well over even a several year time frame.

 

With these capital investment type situations it is not always that easy to know how long one should depreciate them over time.

If you could depreciate it over 1 year, then it is all gravy from there. 

So perhaps $1,000 per month towards depreciation.

 

If you could depreciate it more over 5 years, then you are down to $200 per month.

The irony here is that we might see a buying frenzy for the rental of humanoid labor services with large demand and at first somewhat limited supply,

while at the same time human labor would be in profound excess supply and less demand.

 

Capitalism is always in search of some new breakout consumer product.

Marx was probably correct about this critique of his of mass consumption.

Yet, over the last number of years I have not even kept up with all the new gadgets.

It was only recently that I bought a cell phone because otherwise I would not be able to access my bank account online.   

Yet, with the humanoids my guess is that there are a number of services that they could provide to me that would immediately improve

the quality of my life (some of which I have noted in previous posts).

 

The idea is emerging online that this might be a very very ungood time to have millions of low capital migrants flooding into Western

nations as is now occurring. If the arrival of a mass army of humanoids is now essentially imminent, it would not seem an overly wise choice to allow migrants

who will work at low skill jobs when these jobs would be the first affected. They would then be stuck without employment and without a capital cushion.

Does not give one a particularly nice feeling of what the social situation might be like mediumish term.

 

A labor market collapse potentially could occur over the short-medium term, and yet one has the feeling that

our leadership is playing one move ahead checkers and not playing their hand well. They do not seem to have

fully accounted for the substantial changes that are likely approaching. They are focusing on the demographic

ball up in the air, when they should be thinking about the AI humanoid lake that is exponentially filling up and

could overrun its shoreline soonish.  

 

Another point of interest here is that the rental approach with humanoids would then make them actually even more pervasive on a shorter time frame.

If you had to buy a ~$10,000 humanoid, then that would clearly slow down uptake. People want to develop a better sense of their capabilities and the

nuts and bolts of their operations. Renting a humanoid for a few hours or a few days would be a great way to get acquainted. You like then maybe at some

point it moves on to a buy or perhaps you could then get in the groove of renting it on occasion. The rental roll-out model might then create a very large

market over quite a short period of time. 

 

Perhaps the one ace in the hole that we have is that there is this automatic adjustment mechanism that is part of capitalism.

Governments constantly have this need to stabilize economic forces; this is where their UBI plan enters the picture. I am

now interested in the idea of simply allowing the economy to do the heavy lifting by itself. With the rollout of robots there

should be a massive deflationary impact. Everything that a robot might do could have almost zero marginal cost. In a

free market environment that is the price that we should expect to pay.The idea that somehow we will need to pay robots

human level prices entirely ignores free market reality. The large increase in profits that we have seen in companies that

have rolled out robotech at scale, is due to the fact that they do not actually compete in free markets. When humanoids

are introduced into more of the real world reality of competition we might then see large scale price reductions. This might

not be all that obvious purely from a price point of view because many of these new roboservices have until now been more

done on a non-price basis. So, having to wheel in the garbage buggy is not a service that I currently pay others to do for me.

I suppose it is worth $1 to me to do this-- though this is not a recorded transaction for me. A humanoid might do this for in the range

of pennies. Perhaps it will even be done for free by the city.

 

We have also seen this with the robobuggies. There is minimal to no charge to access the robobuggy service. This is perhaps worth

towards $5 and the robo is willing to do this for nothing. The stores probably will save money when less consumers go to their stores 

and there is a higher risk of theft. In the future there might even be a financial incentive given to use the robobuggy instead of visiting

the store. 

 

While it seems quiet at there, the rollout of robotic tech might now be quite near and along with it there could be substantial social disruption.

 

 







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