231 replies to this topic

[Hip]

Again, you are avoiding the issues of the death count numbers being overstated.

 
No, I am not ignoring that. I addressed that. We know that there are difficulties in getting a completely accurate death count. But the evidence suggests the death count is understated, not overstated.

This evidence is the excess deaths, a mathematical concept that I am not sure you are fully grasping. I tried to explain excess deaths to you, but it's not clear whether you understand it.

Edited by Hip, 02 July 2020 - 03:39 PM.

[Hip]

So I will ask again, Mr osris, what do you think caused the excess deaths?

 

This is the third time I have asked you this question, and you still have not answered. 

 

You seem to avoiding providing answers to awkward questions; but you should answer; don't let your role model be Donald Trump.

Edited by Hip, 02 July 2020 - 03:21 PM.

[Hip]

(Deleted, as a duplicate post).

Edited by Hip, 02 July 2020 - 03:39 PM.

[Hip]

You seem incapable of acknowledging anything that hasn't been approved by the media. Try to think for yourself, and not be a media parrot.

 

I rarely use the media at all when I read science. When it is an important issue, I always read the original scientific studies.

 

If you are getting your science knowledge through the media, that can be unreliable, even in quality media. You have to read the studies as well.

Edited by Hip, 02 July 2020 - 04:21 PM.

[gamesguru]

Are you so dumb, that you take just one death more serious than 8000 daily? Year after year after year?

 

Let's not forget the tendency of this virus to overwhelm health systems with sick, not always old, people.

 

Not to mention the frightening proportion reporting serious lingering side effects, and I think we should pay even less attention to broken English speaking right-wing trolls telling us it's an overreaction

[pamojja]

Let's not forget the tendency of this virus to overwhelm health systems with sick, not always old, people.
 
Not to mention the frightening proportion reporting serious lingering side effects, and I think we should pay even less attention to broken English speaking right-wing trolls telling us it's an overreaction

 
In which locality right now this virus is overwhelming health care systems? In my whole country they emptied the hospitals and during the wave were underwhelmed. On the contrary, health-care workers had to go part-time. Urgent prognostics, treatments and proceedure all postponed. With worse rise in covid-meassures related death yet to come.
 
I probably couln't even read your second language German? - And me being right-wing? It's much more likely that pigs fly.
 

Median age at death of SARS-CoV-2 positives:


Austria      80+    years   EMS


England    80+    years    NHS


France       84    years     SPF

 

 

Germany   82    years     RKI

 

 

Italy           81    years     ISS

 

 

Spain      ~82    years    MDS


Sweden     86    years    FOHM

 

Switzerland    84    years    BAG


USA           ~80 years       CDC

 
The 3 million yearly deaths of influenza and pneumonia - you're in comparison not concerned at all - dies about median half that age!

 

Are you so dumb, that you take just one death more serious than 8000 daily? Year after year after year?

 
Evading this one question and distracting with non-issues also does answer how dumb.

Edited by pamojja, 02 July 2020 - 07:42 PM.

[pamojja]

I rarely use the media at all when I read science. When it is an important issue, I always read the original scientific studies.

 

If you are getting your science knowledge through the media, that can be unreliable, even in quality media. You have to read the studies as well.

 

  It was all those that you accused of lack of scientific education, who gave sources. Also in the OP. While it was actually only you in this thread who promoted referencing secondary sources, industry funded fact-checker sites and main-stream media only.

 

You wont be able to quote even one post where you gave this now 6 pages long thead any original scientific study as source for your absurdity, anyone not your opinion would be depressed, schizotypic or paranoid.
 

[gamesguru]

 
In which locality right now this virus is overwhelming health care systems? In my whole country they emptied the hospitals and during the wave were underwhelmed. On the contrary, health-care workers had to go part-time. Urgent prognostics, treatments and proceedure all postponed. With worse rise in covid-meassures related death yet to come.
 
I probably couln't even read your second language German? - And me being right-wing? It's much more likely that pigs fly.
 

 
The 3 million yearly deaths of influenza and pneumonia - you're in comparison not concerned at all - dies about median half that age!

 

 
Evading this one question and distracting with non-issues also does answer how dumb.

 

Boston, Michigan, New York, Italy, Wuhan were all caught off guard and overwhelmed.  Sweden and Texas as at capacity as well.

 

If you're the left wing I'm converting right because of how disgustingly infantile your whole belief system is.  Which basically comes across in your post as some cry baby with his guns who would claim to die for the country but actually won't even fucking wear a mask for one.

 

There are less than 160,000 deaths attributable to influenza yearly.  So you're just like doctor Phil with his swimming pools pulling this 3 million figure out of your lazy arse.

 

I tell you what's dumb it's the guy who looks at the median age of death and assumes everything is fine.  Just because median age of death is 80 doesn't mean shit.  It could be lingering side effects in plenty of young people, easily way more than the 2% required to smash the "common side effect" threshold.  Anybody with a first year statistics education knows you can't just look at something at misleading as that and assume you understand the situation.  Stupid people generally tend to over-estimate their own abilities, while truly talented ones remain self-doubtful.  I've been saying from the start we can't be sure but better to be cautious about this thing.  You've been leading us off a cliff like Fox News in March 2020

[pamojja]

There were even in New York and Lombardy other hospitals, which remained with empty beds during the worst days, since long over now. For everything given already multple times relyable sources, you didn't.

 

I did wear a mask at all times when it was recommented by our government, and still do. All you know is charactar assassination and spreading lies instead of clearheaded logic.

 

There are about 3 million woldwide yearly deaths form influenza and cocomittant pneumonia, according to the WHO, World Bank, UNESCO, CIA and individual country databases.

 

You're so immature to downplay.

 

[pamojja]

Pamojja has ME/CFS too, but a more mild condition, which allows him to work. I find it extraordinary that pamojja is also downplaying the seriousness of coronavirus, given his background understanding of ME/CFS.

Nowhere I downplay covid. I see it exactly in relation to the likelyhood to suffer from, and experience remission (or die from it)
 
 

Though you wont ever believe the combined sources of WHO, World Bank, UNESCO, CIA and individual country databases, as long as it isn't printed in main-stream media. The fact remains, the risk of dying from corona during its peak here for me was actually 30% less than all the 53 years of my life before (without any meassures taken against). With the caveat, that I don't even remember my last flu. Pneumonia I survived already right at birth.
 
The 9 times most severe threat of CHD already encountered 11 years ago and in remission.
The 6 times more sever threat of stroke not even mentioned but found on MRI.
The 3 times more severe threat of pneumonia already survived at birth.
The 3 times more severe threat of lung disease in remission.
The more severe threat of prediabetis in check.
The more severe threat of tuberculosis in remission.
The more severe threat of road traffic accidents avoided by not driving.
The more severe threat of  NAFLD in remission.
The more severe threat of CKD stage 1 in my case reversed.
 
Finally covid-19 with all a much less likelyhood as above. If all that would be possible with nutty reasoning and censored conspiracy stuff...

[osris]

 
Do try to get your facts right, osris.   

 

I said 20 years ago I experienced a period of very mild psychosis, which led to a fascination and orientation towards conspiracy theory. I do not have any such conspiracy theory inclinations these days, but of course when I see someone who does, just from my own experience, it makes me speculate about their mental health, and the soundness of the reasoning.

 

It's important to be accurate. I know we live in a world where leaders like Trump routinely get their facts wrong, change their mind from day to day, lie and cover up awkward facts, and generally avoid answered awkward questions; but that does not mean you have to follow suit.

 

Get your facts right, osris, and then you will find it leads to much friendlier discussion. Much of the animosity towards Trump arises because he is a bullshitter who does not respect fact. Don't let Trump be your role model.

 

Good to hear that your psychosis of “only mild”, the meds must be working.

 

Once again, you have failed to explain how a growing number of epidemiologists who now see the death numbers as overstated is a conspiracy theory. Is the accusation of “conspiracy theory” the only robot-like response you can make to any scientist who disagrees with you. 

[osris]

No, what it boils down to is that I have direct personal experience of the devastation that viruses can cause in a person's life. And over the last 15 years, I have read a great deal about viruses, so I now have a basic academic understanding of virology. 

 

You on the other hand are likely totally ignorant on both counts: you probably have never had any personal experience with severe disease linked to viruses, and you probably know next to nothing about virology.

 

If I asked you to name 20 common viruses that infect humans, would you be able to? Do you know the difference between a DNA and an RNA virus? Do you understand the mechanisms by which viruses are able to persist long-term in the body?

 

I think you would be unable to answer any of these most basic questions, and yet here you are, with zero expertise, trying to tell everyone what's really going down in this pandemic.  

 

Your first paragraph essentially is saying what you quoted from me: “So what this all boils down to in your mind, is that because you caught a virus years ago, scientists should pretend the death number count from Covid is very high.”. It contains no refutation of what I said.

 

Your second paragraph is merely insult and assumption.

 

Your third paragraph is irrelevant to me, as I only quote from scientist who do know these things.

 

Your fourth paragraph is your projection of your tactics onto me.

Edited by osris, 03 July 2020 - 10:59 AM.

[osris]

Thank you for the advice. The reality is that a lot of myalgic encephalomyelitis /chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) patients like myself are too ill to even leave their bed, except for a few hours where they might watch some TV lying down on the sofa. The body's entire energy system is crashed, and there is no energy to do anything. On top of that, you have crippling brain fog, which can make even the simplest of tasks very hard.

 

I was in that condition for many years. Now I have improved a bit, so that I am not bedbound all day an night, but am still semi-housebound, and not able to work. 

 

Most ME/CFS patients would love to get back to normal life: have a job, have their own place to live, and have a relationship. But for most people ME/CFS is a lifelong condition, and you are just left to rot. There is no medical help, because ME/CFS is considered by many ignorant medics as an "all in the mind" condition, that the patient brings on themself by having the wrong attitude. Worse still, because of this ignorance, very little research goes into trying to find cures. The ME/CFS patient community are extremely angry about the way they have been abandoned.

 

Pamojja has ME/CFS too, but a more mild condition, which allows him to work. I find it extraordinary that pamojja is also downplaying the seriousness of coronavirus, given his background understanding of ME/CFS. 

 

So now it transpires that along with mild psychosis you also have brain fog. 

 

I really don’t think it is worth my time trying to discuss scientific matters with you given this. It is no doubt affecting your critical thinking and ability to discuss things in a rational matter, as my previous posts have laboriously demonstrated.  

Edited by osris, 03 July 2020 - 11:03 AM.

[osris]

 
No, I am not ignoring that. I addressed that. We know that there are difficulties in getting a completely accurate death count. But the evidence suggests the death count is understated, not overstated.

This evidence is the excess deaths, a mathematical concept that I am not sure you are fully grasping. I tried to explain excess deaths to you, but it's not clear whether you understand it.

 

You said this earlier, to which I replied:

 

"As I said before, the excess death theory regarding Covid as a way to attribute these deaths to Covid, is a statistical “begging the question”, and so logically flawed. If the death count for Covid is lower than the official count, as we know it is, then “excess” deaths are part of this low count."

 

Without mathematical models that have been peer-reviewed, any "evidence" you assume, is a point of view.

So I will ask again, Mr osris, what do you think caused the excess deaths?

 

This is the third time I have asked you this question, and you still have not answered. 

 

You seem to avoiding providing answers to awkward questions; but you should answer; don't let your role model be Donald Trump.

 

As I said before, the excess death theory regarding Covid as a way to attribute these deaths to Covid, is a statistical “begging the question”, and so logically flawed. If the death count for Covid is lower than the official count, as we know it is, then “excess” deaths are part of this low count.

 

I will keep saying this until you show me evidence that it is not the case.

[osris]

I rarely use the media at all when I read science. When it is an important issue, I always read the original scientific studies.

 

If you are getting your science knowledge through the media, that can be unreliable, even in quality media. You have to read the studies as well.

 

Strange you say this, seeing as earlier you were citing the big media corporations as the only reliable source for scientific information online.

[osris]

Let's not forget the tendency of this virus to overwhelm health systems with sick, not always old, people.

 

Not to mention the frightening proportion reporting serious lingering side effects, and I think we should pay even less attention to broken English speaking right-wing trolls telling us it's an overreaction

 

"The high death rates [from Covid-19] in some countries are due counterproductive treatment methods, such as intubation and the use of steroids."

 

https://evidencenotfear.com/evidence/

[osris]

 
In which locality right now this virus is overwhelming health care systems? In my whole country they emptied the hospitals and during the wave were underwhelmed. On the contrary, health-care workers had to go part-time. Urgent prognostics, treatments and proceedure all postponed. With worse rise in covid-meassures related death yet to come.
 
I probably couln't even read your second language German? - And me being right-wing? It's much more likely that pigs fly.
 

 
The 3 million yearly deaths of influenza and pneumonia - you're in comparison not concerned at all - dies about median half that age!

 

 
Evading this one question and distracting with non-issues also does answer how dumb.

 

Correct. In the UK, also, most hospitals were empty, and nurses had little to do apart from posting videos of themselves on YouTube doing choreographed dance routines to hip hop music. So they can't have been that inundated with dying Covid patients.

[osris]

  It was all those that you accused of lack of scientific education, who gave sources. Also in the OP. While it was actually only you in this thread who promoted referencing secondary sources, industry funded fact-checker sites and main-stream media only.

 

You wont be able to quote even one post where you gave this now 6 pages long thead any original scientific study as source for your absurdity, anyone not your opinion would be depressed, schizotypic or paranoid.
 

 

Correct.

 

Alas, it looks like Hip is trolling this thread. Perhaps the moderators need to step in.

[osris]

 

If you're the left wing I'm converting right because of how disgustingly infantile your whole belief system is.  Which basically comes across in your post as some cry baby with his guns who would claim to die for the country but actually won't even fucking wear a mask for one.

 

 

I don't think he is left wing particularly, as most left wing people accept the media's Covid narrative, and he doesn't.

 

In the UK, where I live, the left are loving lockdowns because they want to crash the economy so that capitalism will be destroyed.

Edited by osris, 03 July 2020 - 10:56 AM.

[gamesguru]

Lmfaooo i know he's righter than right.  Got to call out BS and immortalize with the utmost irony

[gamesguru]

Nowhere I downplay covid.

 

[gamesguru]

"The high death rates [from Covid-19] in some countries are due counterproductive treatment methods, such as intubation and the use of steroids."

 

https://evidencenotfear.com/evidence/

 

Now maybe I'm wrong, I have been before, but perhaps the fact that these people are clinically short of breath, and many who have been turned away from hospitals later died at home of suffocation, might it be fair to assume the simple act of making someone sick enough to require ventilation or to indeed die of suffocation, that that is enough of an alarm bell.  That hey, this pathogen is capable of making people en masse so sick they require supplemental oxygen or ventilation.  Again I could be wrong, but something that make me so weak i need oyxgen, something with potential life long side effects, I would remain duly cautious against such a pathogen and not give into right-wing rhetoric that all is fine and dandy.

[geo12the]

 

If you're the left wing I'm converting right because of how disgustingly infantile your whole belief system is.  Which basically comes across in your post as some cry baby with his guns who would claim to die for the country but actually won't even fucking wear a mask for one.

 

 

 

Let's stop politicizing the virus. The virus is a strand of RNA encapsulated with proteins. It's a molecular parasite that makes animals sick. It's not left, right, conservative or liberal. It's doesn't watch Rachael Madow or Sean Hannity.  

[pamojja]

Lmfaooo i know he's righter than right.  Got to call out BS and immortalize with the utmost irony

 

 

Anyone who does not know an other, or at least doesn't quote in support of one's opinion, is always recklessly lying. Therefore has no conscience. Can't be a christian, muslim, buddhist, taoist, humanist, etc... But either simply loves to confuse and smear other persons - in lack of abilty to really counter with rational arguments - thereby delusionally still being able to feel a little superior. Or also has an hidden agenda. As also found the case with Hip. That much I could say about you, truthfully.

 

You also disclosed your left-leaning. That's totally fine with me. But understand left and right is regularly abused to devide and rule, to polarize. As also you seem to become accustomed. With no real difference in daily policy-making. Here in Austria we have even a richer buffet to delude ourself: we have conservatives (black), socialists (red), liberals (blue), neo-liberals (pink), greens (green) and communists. What every politician of any color has in common as personality trait is hunger for power. Without that, no one would stay long in such cycles. It can be seen in our country after every vote, when 2 of the most contrarian parties join coalition - for being in power. And really nothing gets done. Personally I abandoned any polititan leanings, when I realized it's just a mirror of a given population, and change only comes from within. Therefore my urge to truthfulness, and to speak up when truth gets perverted.

 

In my country every party officially welcomed the misguided meassures. And I know of every party who don't agree.

[gamesguru]

But either simply loves to confuse and smear other persons

Kind of like you two posts ago being a hypocrite calling the guy shizotypal in an emotional way, while claiming to be still yourself 100% free from ad hominem

[pamojja]

Kind of like you two posts ago being a hypocrite calling the guy shizotypal in an emotional way, while claiming to be still yourself 100% free from ad hominem

 

You know: What goes around comes around. It was Hip and you who started with permanent adhominems already on the alternative views thread, never replying to counter-questions, always distracting with further assumptions and accusations. Where at one point one can't, but address exactly that. And which can be mistaken as counter adhominem. I remember once using experimentally Hip's method with humor. But right after found it completely inappropiate.

 

However, I tried to find the post you mean to put it in context, after counting 20 posts back I gave up. Would you be so kind to quote?

 

And if you can't, you just did it again.

Edited by pamojja, 03 July 2020 - 08:18 PM.

[gamesguru]

You know: What goes around comes around. It was Hip and you who started with permanent adhominems already on the alternative views thread, never replying to counter-questions

 

What are you talking about?  We responded to all your questions, it was rather you posting great volumes of sophistry and refusing to assimilate the simple ideas we were trying to convey.  Well, I exited that discussion after all it is the "alternative views" thread so any BS does belong there

[pamojja]

You do it again. Lying without source. Accusations without quote. Assumptions without references.

 

 

Like the question why you downplay 3 million yearly influenza and pneumonia deaths -  which you answered it would be only a tiny fraction of that, without any source. No sophistry involved, just a reference to be given.

[gamesguru]

Like the question why you downplay 3 million yearly influenza and pneumonia deaths

 

Here's an educational website, regarded among academic editors as what we professionals call a "primary source", just a little FYI.

 

About 291,000 to 646,000 people in the world die from seasonal flu each year, higher than an often-used statistic of 250,000 to 500,000 deaths that is has always tilted toward higher-income countries and is based on data thought to reach back to the 1990s.

 

Source: https://www.cidrap.u...rate-deaths-flu

 

Note how we have already over 500,000 confirmed deaths from COVID in the first 7 months alone.  And all this despite draconian lockdowns across the world which have curbed the spread of the flu and other diseases too.  I have not been since last October now, *knocks on wood*

[pamojja]

Here's an educational website, regarded among academic editors as what we professionals call a "primary source", just a little FYI.
 
Source: https://www.cidrap.u...rate-deaths-flu

 
Thanks. That is actually under "Featured News Topic", by Lisa Schnirring | News Editor | CIDRAP News  | Dec 14, 2017 - and therefore secondary only.

But the article does links to the original study too: http://www.thelancet...3293-2/fulltext
 
I would respond with the same objection as I did with Hip's source: one can't leave out pneumonias, which usually are caused by respiratory viral infections, and most often proceed with bacterial and fungal pneumonia to death. Most often not tested on any virus, and counted as pneumonia-deaths only.

 

It would be the same to divide all covid-19 deaths from those who die from its most common direct cause of death: sepsis. Very few would be left.
 

 

Seasonal influenza kills an estimated 250,00 to 500,000 people each year globally. Reference: here.

 
Your secondary source medscape references the WHO as its source.

Epidemiology
In tropical areas, influenza occurs throughout the year. In the Northern Hemisphere, the influenza season typically starts in early fall, peaks in mid-February, and ends in the late spring of the following year. The duration and severity of influenza epidemics vary, however, depending on the virus subtype involved.
The World Health Organization estimates that worldwide, annual influenza epidemics result in about 3-5 million cases of severe illness and about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths. [21] In the United States, individual cases of seasonal flu and flu-related deaths in adults are not reportable illnesses; consequently, mortality is estimated by using statistical models

https://www.worldlif...#WORLD RANKINGS states as its source beside others also the WHO:

OUR DATA: We use the most recent data from these primary sources: WHO, World Bank, UNESCO, CIA and individual country databases for global health and causes of death.
We use the CDC, NIH and individual state and county databases for verification and supplementation for USA data

 
With slightly above 3 million deaths of influenza and pneumonia in 2017, and slightly below 3 million deaths in 2018 given by the later. Both can't of course be right, expecially since the WHO seems the primary source of both.
 
The most likely explanation for this huge discrepancy is that medscape explicitly states 'influenza epidemics', while woldlifeexpectancy.com gives the complete numbers of all  'Influenza and Pneumonia' deaths per year. Which of course are in most cases co-comitant. Just as covid-19 deaths couldn't be devided into covid alone, or its most common ending as sepsis.
 

So this shows coronavirus is much worse than seasonal influenza in terms of its death rate.

If you look at this wikipedia map of covid-19 deaths per million today(By Dan Polansky and authors of File:BlankMap-World.svg. - Own work;This vector image includes elements that have been taken or adapted from this file:  BlankMap-World.svg., CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wiki...urid=88239281):
 
Screenshot_2020-06-27 COVID-19 pandemic - Wikipedia.png

 
And compare it to this from woldlifeexpectancy of influenzia and pneumonia deaths per million and year:
 
Screenshot_2020-06-27 INFLUENZA AND PNEUMONIA DEATH RATE BY COUNTRY.png
 

 

red colored: 765-2465 per million
green: 331-765
purple: 170-331
gray: 20-170
 
You can see that the dark blue (covid deaths) compares about only to the green (yearly influenza and pneumonia deaths).
 
Covid hasn't even reached the amount of suffering deaths anywhere, as is usual year after year after year for about 15% of our world-population from influenzia and pneumonia together. (the dark red colored countries)
 
Therefore what justification you have to separate pneumonia deaths from influeza deaths (especially since with the former one is rarely tested on the later). Other than repeating like a parrot what medscape says?

 

 

However, since https://www.worldlif...#WORLD RANKINGS is not directly linking to its WHO source for their 2018 numbers of combined influenza and pneumonia deaths, I send them a request to provide. And will post.