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odds that cryonics will work

featured poll cryonics odds;

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10 replies to this topic

Poll: odds (according to the calculator) that cryonics might work (30 member(s) have cast votes)

What are YOUR personalised odds?

  1. 75%+ (4 votes [13.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 13.33%

  2. 50%+ (4 votes [13.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 13.33%

  3. 30%+ (2 votes [6.67%])

    Percentage of vote: 6.67%

  4. 10%+ (2 votes [6.67%])

    Percentage of vote: 6.67%

  5. under 5% (8 votes [26.67%])

    Percentage of vote: 26.67%

  6. near zero (10 votes [33.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 33.33%

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#1 caliban

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Posted 23 September 2020 - 11:54 PM


Some people will be familiar with the various efforts to quantify chances of cryonics 'working'.

One such is at 

 

https://www.cryonicscalculator.com/ 

 

It may be quite simplistic, but it is perhaps a good way to start engaging with the topic.

 

Using the tool, what do cryonicists here estimate their chances to be?  

 

 [part of the current featured poll series]



#2 seivtcho

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Posted 25 September 2020 - 09:26 AM

I voted >75%

I believe, that the accumulation and agregaton of human knowledge will inevitably make everything possible. What is needed is time and effort. I believe in what in the western literature is now called "Collective learning"

"Collective learning is the ability of a species to accumulate more information with each passing generation than is lost by the next." According to me this is what makes the impossible possible.

 


  • Pointless, Timewasting x 1

#3 caliban

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Posted 25 September 2020 - 03:04 PM

What is needed is time and effort.

 

 

Everyone in cryonics hopes that is true. Did you really put your estimates into the calculator?      



#4 Droplet

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Posted 13 November 2020 - 03:28 PM

Mine come up as 62.99%. At present, cryonics is not affordable enough for me.



#5 Rib Jig

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Posted 06 December 2020 - 07:24 PM

quickie calculator gave me 56% chance

I'll take it...



#6 TranscendingSingularity

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Posted 05 February 2021 - 11:39 AM

It's hard to tell. I believe that there are way too many highly complex factors to estimate this yet like extinction, unforeseen problems, etc.



#7 kurdishfella

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Posted 06 February 2021 - 08:03 PM

I think they can work but needs some work. And one important thing that people get wrong is they freeze themselves after dying, you have to do it before you die otherwise your spirit/energy has already left your body. And freezing will put everything in a pause mode including your consciousness and organs etc. But how can you freeze yourself without dying first? You would have to do it quick enough or something so the organs doesn't get damaged because of overworked immune system or something.


Edited by kurdishfella, 06 February 2021 - 08:09 PM.


#8 Rib Jig

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Posted 07 February 2021 - 09:59 PM

It's hard to tell. I believe that there are way too many highly complex factors to estimate this yet like extinction, unforeseen problems, etc.

 

AI experts predict AGI starts in 50 years.

Once AGI starts, solving easiest cryonics revival could be 10 years later.
AGI will solve "unforseen problems", if any.
Extinction, whatever that means, highly unlikely.
WWIII nuclear war, maybe...



#9 Rib Jig

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Posted 07 February 2021 - 10:05 PM

I think they can work but needs some work. And one important thing that people get wrong is they freeze themselves after dying, you have to do it before you die otherwise your spirit/energy has already left your body. And freezing will put everything in a pause mode including your consciousness and organs etc. But how can you freeze yourself without dying first? You would have to do it quick enough or something so the organs doesn't get damaged because of overworked immune system or something.

 

No you don't.

Spirit/energy is fairytale fodder, not science.
Stop watching "Paranormal Alien Visitors are Among Us" tv shows.

Waste of time.  Get real, get some science into your life.  Don't be afraid.
Science in coming decades will be more fabulous than today's misguided fantasies.


Edited by Rib Jig, 07 February 2021 - 10:05 PM.

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#10 rwoodin

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Posted 27 June 2021 - 05:56 AM

My numbers are as follows - 

I consider these particular inputs to be biased toward the very optimistic end of the speculation spectrum. Eventually, whatever can go wrong, will go wrong.
On top of that, successful preservation and reanimation of humans is a technical feat that has yet to be documented, in all the 4.5 billion years since the earth formed and life arose upon it, and in over the last one million years that humans have appeared and evolved on this planet, earth.
 

20 % ODDS THAT YOU WILL LIVE INDEFINITELY BY LIFE EXTENSION THERAPIES.

9 % ODDS THAT YOU WILL BE REANIMATED IF YOU DO DEANIMATE (CRYONICS WORKS).

27 % ODDS THAT YOU WILL LIVE INDEFINITELY BY LIFE EXTENSION THERAPIES OR CRYONICS.

 



#11 Rib Jig

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Posted 27 June 2021 - 01:27 PM

whatever can go wrong, will go wrong.

 

Grandpa said it so it must be right...  :dry:  :dry:  :dry: 

Whatever can go right will go right.

Much of what don't go right now, will go right in future.

Those who can't think outside of their box now will never think outside of their box...

I'm looking forward to having several avatar friends with no limits in understanding scientific possibilities...

Maybe by 2150.  After my revival.

 







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