42 replies to this topic

[Chip]

Sounds like we are on the same wave length

Besides numerous off-planet space colonies with active and/or passive shielding here in this solar system, we should also consider spreading life, perhaps ourselves too, to other stars and maybe even galaxies. That too increases the probability of our experiencing no cessation of life, probably already mentioned in this thread.

[jaydfox]

Actually Chip the earthquake was on the 26th at 0058 GMT but it was on the other side of the Earth not that many hours to the west of the International dateline in the morning of the 27th *their* time. Though because of the proximity to midnight GMT I am still a bit confused as to whether this was the 26th or 27th local date in the Eastern Hemisphere where the epicenter was.

Hmm, looking again at the numbers, it appears the quake was at about 8 AM local time, Dec 26th, and was actually in the evening of the 25th in the U.S. It would have been really cool if the events were hours apart instead of over a day, but still neat...

[Lazarus Long]

The *Official Time* was 0056 GMT on the 26th. It was about 8am local time on the 26th and that has nothing to do with US time, on that aspect we agree.

It was close to midnight GMT and that confused the dating for me at first because technically the west side (counter intuitively) of the International dateline is a calendar day ahead of the eastern side.

However the totla time difference is still not so critical a difference to disqualify the idea actually and as it still needs to be protracted over the rate of difference in velocity that a gravitational wave travels relative to gamma waves for the fifty thousand light year distance or alternatively the idea that the gravitational wave simply could have preceded the EM radiation burst as it was an aspect (gravitational collapse) of what leads up to the GRB.

However the most important thing is that I don't have the actual data to compare so for me it merely an interesting supposition. However I also suspect someone has access to the data and one day we'll hear one way or another.

[jaydfox]

It was close to midnight GMT and that confused the dating for me at first because technically the west side (counter intuitively) of the International dateline is a calendar day ahead of the eastern side.

Yes, but remember, if it was 0058 26 Dec GMT, then it was 1658 25 Dec PST, and 1358 25 Dec in Hawaii. In other words, if you crossed the dateline, it went from the 25th (in California, Hawaii, etc.) to the 26th. So while it seems confusing with the dateline, the dateline issue is actually a non-issue.

[jaydfox]

However the totla time difference is still not so critical a difference to disqualify the idea actually and as it still needs to be protracted over the rate of difference in velocity that a gravitational wave travels relative to gamma waves for the fifty thousand light year distance or alternatively the idea that the gravitational wave simply could have preceded the EM radiation burst as it was an aspect (gravitational collapse) of what leads up to the GRB.

Well, if I recall correctly, the object that produced this burst was a neutron star, only tens of kilometers in diameter. The "event" that caused the GRB couldn't have preceeded the actual burst by more than a few seconds at that scale, and probably not more than a few milliseconds.

So, assuming the quake was the result of a gravity wave, it was probably not because of a delay between the gravity wave producing event and the GRB itself. However, that would only argue more in favor of the gravity wave outpacing the gamma ray burst.

There is still no determination on the propagation speeds of gravity waves relative to gamma ray bursts. However, in the few models I have bothered to study (by study, I mean casually read about, since the math involved is beyond me at the moment... One more reason I want to live a long, long, long time, so I can learn the maths needed to understand the details... But I digress...), it is typically low energy light that has any appreciable lag time over long distances, whereas gamma rays, due to their relativistic contraction of space, time, etc., would travel pretty much right at the propagation speed of gravity waves.

So we'd expect gravity waves and gamma rays to arrive hours or days before the visible or infrared light. I haven't seen a model yet that puts gravity waves faster than all forms of light including gamma rays, but I haven't followed the field in a couple years at least.

At any rate, the fact that the gamma ray burst, as observed, was so short, given the likely spread of energies in the gamma rays, implies that the gamma rays were traveling at or very, very near their speed limit, so for gravity waves to travel faster, they would have to have a completely different hard speed limit, and I find it interesting that such a speed limit would be of the same magnitude as light speed, let alone within a few parts in a billion. One of those things that people who don't understand the science would dismiss as too good of a coincidence to be true (like the people who dismiss evolution). I won't be one of those people, but I thought I'd point out how interesting it is that what could in theory be a completely different speed is in fact so very, very close.

[jaydfox]

Heh, I wonder if the original magnetar might have had its own aftershock today (well, today minus 50,000 years or so... ), and if we might be reading about another GRB when the data are finally published months from now? If so, I seriously doubt the scientists involved would fail to make the connection that Laz did, so it would be big news indeed...

[Lazarus Long]

Yes, but remember, if it was 0058 26 Dec GMT, then it was 1658 25 Dec PST, and 1358 25 Dec in Hawaii. In other words, if you crossed the dateline, it went from the 25th (in California, Hawaii, etc.) to the 26th. So while it seems confusing with the dateline, the dateline issue is actually a non-issue.

Now it is you that has it backward. GMT had already crossed as the *dateline* for *our* side and that is the major reference point (180 degrees opposite the dateline) not the US however I agree that it was the 26th and a none issue; in fact I already said so above.

The magnetar is only a few kilometers in diameter because it is *almost* a black hole and not quite of sufficient mass to complete the process but the actual mass of the object is many times that of our own sun as it is composed of super dense matter. Don't let its size confuse you, it's the mass and density that count for this problem.

Well, if I recall correctly, the object that produced this burst was a neutron star, only tens of kilometers in diameter. The "event" that caused the GRB couldn't have preceeded the actual burst by more than a few seconds at that scale, and probably not more than a few milliseconds.

So, assuming the quake was the result of a gravity wave, it was probably not because of a delay between the gravity wave producing event and the GRB itself. However, that would only argue more in favor of the gravity wave outpacing the gamma ray burst.

This magnetar is a well documented *pulsar* as well and one reason is that it is collapsing and expanding periodically and noticeably. As it does so it is actually phasing temporally as well when its mass/density states start approaching the Schwarzschild limit. This phenomenon could mean that an event which we experienced relativistically as hours apart may have actually been only moments locally because of how temporally unstable the passage of time is locally.

During the objects' expanded *less dense phase*, time speeds up to a rate closer to ours and as it collapses into its more dense phase its rate of time slows down relative to ours. For example if the wave were emitted at the moment of maximum collapse the rate of time would have been slowest relative to us and then as the object expands its temporal rate would accelerate closest to our own at the point of maximum expansion. The question then becomes *relativistic* to one another: When is the GRB and when is the hypothetical Gravity Wave generated during this critical *pulsation* of the magnetar?

That is what the best theoretical mathematical model should be able to predict and whether the event instigated our own tectonic event or not the difference between these two now detectable *events* could reveal an important amount of confirmation for modern physics. The GRACE satellites as well as Chandra might have the answers already in their database.

Actually the idea is that the gravitational matrix might experience a *standing wave front* like the kind sent down a rope fixed at two ends. Gravity exists as a constant matrix of balancing (bidirectional) force like a rope fixed at both ends and I agree that there would be very little difference between the theoretical velocity of gravity versus gamma rays though the graviton as a hypothetically *massless* particle even smaller and theoretically lighter than a photon of gamma waves would have a value for C slighter faster than the photons of gamma waves even at the top of the EM spectrum.

However gravitons still have not been identified and various programs are involved in the search for those still theoretical particles as we speak because their actual properties could determine the validity of a number of aspects of Super Strings, Quantum Gravity and mTheory.

Heh, I wonder if the original magnetar might have had its own aftershock today (well, today minus 50,000 years or so...  ), and if we might be reading about another GRB when the data are finally published months from now? If so, I seriously doubt the scientists involved would fail to make the connection that Laz did, so it would be big news indeed...

I am offering a hypothesis not a proof, no need to introduce anti-gravity or time travel to confuse the idea Jay.. )

Edited by Lazarus Long, 29 March 2005 - 03:47 PM.

[Lazarus Long]

Oh and I am not going to ignore the fact that it is also a super powerful magnetar that is pulsing in a number of areas of the EM spectrum including magnetic and not just gamma.

It happens to be one of only a dozen or so such objects of its kind that we have discovered to date.

I also just lack the mathematical understanding to plug all the relevant factors into the correct model equation but it would be fun don't you think?

[jaydfox]

Heh, I wonder if the original magnetar might have had its own aftershock today (well, today minus 50,000 years or so...  ), and if we might be reading about another GRB when the data are finally published months from now? If so, I seriously doubt the scientists involved would fail to make the connection that Laz did, so it would be big news indeed...

I am offering a hypothesis not a proof, no need to introduce anti-gravity or time travel to confuse the idea Jay..

Time travel? I was just taking into consideration that, had we observed a GRB flash yesterday or today, the event would have happened 50,000 years ago (due to the stated roughly 50,000 light-year distance to the magnetar and the propogation speed of light-speed, give or take a few parts in a billion).

[Lazarus Long]

Actually given the (ELF) Extremely Long Wave characteristics of the initial standing wave properties I am suggesting we are still experiencing the results of the oscillation induced the first time along with a tectonic domino effect.

There is no need to over extend the idea to suggest that every and any tectonic event is related to such occurrences. That would be an overly broad extension of the hypothesis into probable fallacy.

There is one little piece of tantalizing evidence that supports this which is in the common record; the Earth literally *rang* like a bell after the first tectonic event. I am suggesting that this is possibly a type of *harmonic resonance* to an even longer wave.

Heh, I wonder if the original magnetar might have had its own aftershock today (well, today minus 50,000 years or so...  ),

I just thought you were suggesting a little levity and the idea that somehow the magnetar was experiencing a reciprocal event. [wis] [lol]

Actually as I pointed out earlier the magnetar hasn't stopped *oscillating* as it just happens to be a high frequency *pulsar* that is bouncing off its Schwarzschild limit regularly and sometimes the pendulum of energies swings closer than others and this is what contributes to the GRB we witness when the energy during the sub-nova response is emitted. However matter is not being seriously ejected from the super dense body and that is why it then collapses again, and again rather than cooling down into a plain brown dwarf.

BTW the kind of wave I am describing is *tidal* but a part of the greater galactic tidal field not just our local Solar System one and we do see these types of standing wave phenomenon produced on Earth by *tidal forces* related to our *normal and recognized* tidal interactivity of the Sun and Moon, so it is not stretching the idea too much to suggest that such events might trigger this kind of effect on a larger scale.

[Lazarus Long]

BTW did you also notice that there was a significant increase in Solar Flare/Storm activity that coincided with both events and began shortly after the GRB?

There was some minor activity all month (even less in Oct though Nov was very active) but the Sun increases its activity and output significantly on the 28th of Dec and continues into Jan and then calms dramatically in Feb.
Please check out the available graphs to confirm this observation.
http://www.sec.noaa....ts/archive.html

Dec/Jan data
http://www.sec.noaa....ts_Dec2004.html
http://www.sec.noaa....ts_Jan2005.html

By the theoretical model I am proposing we would expect the larger mass of the Sun to require more time to react to the kinds of *tidal* wave I am describing but it would be even more likely due to its larger mass to demonstrate an effect. It is just another tantalizing coincidence though isn't it?

Look at this Solar activity graph please?
http://www.sec.noaa...._16Dec2004.html

Notice the coincident dates of the high energy radio bursts?

Really a much *longer period* analysis is required before drawing any conclusions but earlier months were *less* active and Jan continued to be more so while Feb calmed down again and March as well. Also please don't read into this the suggestion of a causal relationship between Solar activity and tectonics as that is not my point.

It is that we should perhaps be looking for evidence of an extra solar source for some kind of *possible* causal force and these would perhaps leave detectable evidence in a variety of the now available data sources.

[Lazarus Long]

Hey Jay while these articles really belong over on the Earthquake threads they also are relevant to our discussion here.

You see there are is a bit of good news and an anomaly that is consistent with the model for a trigger force that I am suggesting.

The good news is that we are getting *better* at predicting tectonic events and the Earthquake that just occurred is an example of one the first successfully predicted earthquakes for location and scope ever. The problem is that it was larger and even sooner than should have occurred under the models.

 
Stress Buildup Likely to Trigger another Indian Ocean Earthquake
By Associated Press
posted: 16 March 2005 02:03 pm ET
http://www.livescien...atra_quake.html

Obviously these models are not perfect but it is curious given the reasons why tectonics events are measured on *geological* timelines.

http://story.news.ya...kes_science&e=2

Latest Earthquakes Surprise Seismologists
Science - AP
By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - The latest deadly earthquake off the coast of Indonesia wasn't unexpected but may have arrived earlier than experts anticipated.

After the December 26 quake that sent out a devastating tsunami, every seismologist knew that the earthquake potential of nearby faults had increased, Yale University seismologist Jeffrey Park said in a telephone interview.

"But I don't think any one of us would have predicted it would have occurred in three months, at this magnitude," he said.

*****

Aftershocks are common following large quakes. Oppenheimer said, and he called Monday's tremor a large aftershock from the December quake. But Park declined to call it an aftershock, since it wasn't located in the same fault section.

"That doesn't mean that the two aren't connected; they very likely are connected," he said.

But what seismologists don't understand is the time lag, he said, noting that in the Anatolian fault zone in Turkey and in California, the time scale can be decades.

A 1971 quake in California loaded extra stress on a nearby fault that ruptured in the 1994 Northridge quake, Park said.

"So the correlation is pretty clear but the cause, in terms of knowing the cause well enough to predict when the next one is going to occur, that's still mysterious," he said.
{excerpts}

The reason that the anomaly is consistent is that the introduction of a *trigger force* would help account for the diminution of the normal time lag between events as there has been insufficient time for normal displacement of tectonic stress to occur.

Again this is not a *proof* but it is another intriguing clue that suggests the concept is worthy of serious investigation.

[jaydfox]

I like your analysis of the sun data. The sun's shape is not quite spherical, but it is very finely balanced. Factors affecting its shape are its own gravity, its rotation, its power output, and the gravity of nearby planets. Most of those effects are basically static, but the gravitational effects of the planets are not. However, they vary on timescales of months to decades, so the balance is maintained.

A gravitational wave, especially if the wavelength were long enough compared to the sun's diameter, but short enough to give a high frequency wave, could start the sun in an oscillating wobble, which would literally be putting billions of billions of tons of force to move masses measured in Jupiter masses a few mm (or cm, or meters) this way and that.

Such pressures could alter the fusion rates slightly, but this wouldn't be noticeable for eons. However, nearer the surface, we would expect to see slight changes in solar output, which could last hours or days, and it's interesting that this was observed. Given the power output of the magnetar's event, trillions of trillions of trillions of watts, it's not implausible that a wave big enough to affect solar output might have been produced. But we'd need a physicist better trained than an amateur like myself to do the maths.