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How accurate are Ray Kurzweil's predictions?

kurzweil singularity breakthroughs biomedicine dna sequencing computing brain artificial intelligence robotics

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#241 Dream Big

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Posted 19 January 2019 - 07:05 AM

  • Virtual artists—creative computers capable of making their own art and music—emerge in all fields of the arts.

NOPE -- The Culture we are yet not

 

 

  • Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use.

NOT QUITE

 

 

 

Claim one. I mostly object. I study the AI field a lot, and Ian Goodfellow invented GANs in 2014, and if you watch Two Minute Paper videos on Youtube - you can see how they learn to generate fake artwork, faces, increase photo resolution, add styles, videos from line drawings, text-to-image!!!!, image colorization from B&W reallllly extra good!!, make faces smile! magic!, etc!, it's the bleeding edge and amazing, mind-dropping. A painting made by AI was recently just sold for a huge amount of money. Music remains much more dry but they are generating piano music, lip sync real time generate audio to a face with no sound, even stories using Sequence Prediction that model a given dataset to look like. As for in all fields of the arts, I would say so, because as you can read on articles and AI Papers - they are plowing out so many types of AI neural network variants and they are being applied to so many crazy things! Like detecting cancer, or making someone else dance to a pose, etc.

 

!!!! https://gizmodo.com/...-int-1828413827

 

See mine I made attached, it is so cool.

 

Attached File  6556865868.PNG   819.11KB   0 downloads

 

Attached File  generated one.PNG   367.83KB   1 downloads

 

Attached File  2.PNG   396.91KB   0 downloads

 

>>> !!!!!! GROWING PLUS MORPHING CELEB FACES

 

As for the second claim, not arguing it much at all, but, not sure if Google is using them much but before we know it our cellphones may be using their cloud's genetic algorithm, or a GAN or something better. The rate of the AI field is astounding. Definitely not far off from happening or being the case at present. And, the amount of AI scientists using them is a lot, so in a sense it is widespread.


Edited by Dream Big, 19 January 2019 - 07:30 AM.


#242 Dream Big

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Posted 20 January 2019 - 03:49 PM

To further that, text to video:

 

 

 

Text to big resolution bird image:

(refresh the page and try again if it doesn't pop up your image in like 7 seconds (maybe))

https://drawingbot.azurewebsites.net/

Read about it here: https://www.ailab.mi...41-0118f414bd78


Edited by Dream Big, 20 January 2019 - 04:19 PM.


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#243 Dream Big

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Posted 21 May 2019 - 02:46 AM

For beginners to AI / AGI, you will get a beyond-well drive if you check out all the content in the 3 links please:

https://openai.com/

https://openai.com/b...se-transformer/

https://www.youtube..../keeroyz/videos

Specifically, GPT-2, Musenet, etc on Open AI, are prime areas.


Edited by Dream Big, 21 May 2019 - 02:47 AM.

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#244 Mind

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Posted 29 December 2019 - 01:24 PM

 

  • The computational capacity of a $4,000 computing device (in 1999 dollars) is approximately equal to the computational capability of the human brain (20 quadrillion calculations per second).
  • The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race.
  • Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.).
  • People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet.
  • These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver "augmented reality" and "virtual reality" in three different ways. First, they can project "heads-up-displays" (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the environment regardless of the user's perspective or orientation. Second, virtual objects or people could be rendered in fixed locations by the glasses, so when the user's eyes look elsewhere, the objects appear to stay in their places. Third, the devices could block out the "real" world entirely and fully immerse the user in a virtual reality environment.
  • People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. Dealing with computers thus becomes more and more like dealing with a human being.
  • Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person.
  • Most people own more than one PC, though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all sorts of unexpected shapes and sizes.
  • Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared.
  • Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used.
  • Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate.
  • Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use.
  • Destructive scans of the brain and noninvasive brain scans have allowed scientists to understand the brain much better. The algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain to construct a much more complex organ are being transferred into computer neural nets.
  • Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere.
  • Nanotechnology is more capable and is in use for specialized applications, yet it has not yet made it into the mainstream. "Nanoengineered machines" begin to be used in manufacturing.
  • Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents. The aforementioned computer eyeglasses and contact lenses are also used for this same purpose, and all download the information wirelessly.
  • Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete.
  • Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. These assistants are often not physically present, and help students remotely.
  • Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often done remotely via computers.
  • All students have access to computers.
  • Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge.
  • Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for them through speech. Sighted people also use these glasses to amplify their own abilities.
  • Retinal and neural implants also exist, but are in limited use because they are less useful.
  • Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. Cochlear and other implants are also widely used.
  • People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb steps using computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic walkers.
  • Computers are also found inside of some humans in the form of cybernetic implants. These are most commonly used by disabled people to regain normal physical faculties (i.e. - Retinal implants allow the blind to see and spinal implants coupled with mechanical legs allow the paralyzed to walk).
  • Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are routinely used in conversations.
  • Effective language technologies (natural language processing, speech recognition, speech synthesis) exist
  • Access to the Internet is completely wireless and provided by wearable or implanted computers.
  • People are able to wirelessly access the Internet at all times from almost anywhere
  • Devices that deliver sensations to the skin surface of their users (i.e.--tight body suits and gloves) are also sometimes used in virtual reality to complete the experience. "Virtual sex"—in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality, or in which a human can have sex with a "simulated" partner that only exists on a computer—becomes a reality.
  • Just as visual- and auditory virtual reality have come of age, haptic technology has fully matured and is completely convincing, yet requires the user to enter a V.R. booth. It is commonly used for computer sex and remote medical examinations. It is the preferred sexual medium since it is safe and enhances the experience.
  • Worldwide economic growth has continued. There has not been a global economic collapse.
  • The vast majority of business interactions occur between humans and simulated retailers, or between a human's virtual personal assistant and a simulated retailer.
  • Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable.
  • Computers do most of the vehicle driving—-humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. Furthermore, when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control whenever the human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents.
  • Most roads now have automated driving systems—networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate.
  • Prototype personal flying vehicles using microflaps exist. They are also primarily computer-controlled.
  • Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which hold some advantages over human partners. The depth of some computer personalities convinces some people that they should be accorded more rights.
  • While a growing number of humans believe that their computers and the simulated personalities they interact with are intelligent to the point of human-level consciousness, experts dismiss the possibility that any could pass the Turing Test.
  • Human-robot relationships begin as simulated personalities become more convincing.
  • Interaction with virtual personalities becomes a primary interface
  • Public places and workplaces are ubiquitously monitored to prevent violence and all actions are recorded permanently. Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes.
  • The basic needs of the underclass are met. (Not specified if this pertains only to the developed world or to all countries)
  • Virtual artists—creative computers capable of making their own art and music—emerge in all fields of the arts.

 

 

 

We have arrived at the end of 2019 and the list seems to be as accurate as it has been in the last couple of years.

 

Self-driving cars are here but not widespread. I think the adoption would be quicker if there were designated routes/lanes for self-driving cars.

 

Still having trouble finding the cost of 20 petaflop computers (processors). I pretty sure it is getting closer to $4,000.

 

I think the biggest miss is the nanotube computer chips.

 

Another miss is the virtual learning. Vested interests (public schools) are a drag on wider adoption, IMO, but there are A LOT of options out there for self-learners.

 

The haptic virtual reality adoption has not materialized, but other forms are widespread.

 

I guess the biggest theme I see is that virtual reality is being adopted, but not so much for the "enlightened" purposes most forecasters envisioned. It has mainly been used for gaming, entertainment, etc... and not so much for discovery, science, etc...


Edited by Mind, 30 December 2019 - 08:22 PM.

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#245 Matt

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Posted 30 December 2019 - 10:40 AM

Ray seems to have been quite accurate with his prediction on virtual and augmented reality but got the form factor and resolution wrong. As you said, it's not as widespread yet, but sales of Playstation VR, PCVR, and percentage of steam users has been roughly doubling each year since their release in 2016. If current trends continue, it'll probably be quite mainstream within 3-4 years. 

 

The capabilities of Augmented Reality will also be greatly improved with the release of Qualcomm's Snapdragon XR2 5G

 

 

Most business transactions or information inquiries will involve dealing with a simulated person.

 

 

https://youtu.be/D5VN56jQMWM

 

We might be close to this...


Edited by Matt, 30 December 2019 - 11:01 AM.

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#246 TheGene

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 11:49 PM

The 2019 predictions, some are trivial while others are actual game changers. It's clear the trend is all about more data/compute/manipulation. Cooperation of agents. Internet nervous system. Wireless communication. More data. Giving jobs to related humans to offload work. And this is all happening. Electricity>computer>data>AI>nanobots. The data tech builds on itself, that's why small fast phones that do lots are sold so much and used. The Hutter Prize shows AI is a Lossless Compression problem (like GANs). AGI transforms data self-recursively, extra context is the key here. It extracts free energy/knowledge by compressing. It can generate realistic/quality data better. You seen above I linked magical links, yes, the AI is really strong, biology and etc fields depend on context/wisdom, you will need to use a computer/lots of Big Diverse Data to do better stem cell research.

 

Since I'm here, I'll mention we are like water in a river, flowing. We aren't lucky to have the physics we have, we have no other choice. We are predictable. AI works exactly by this, big data leads to exponential wisdom because there is only so many different patterns. All words in a dictionary describe each other. So do humans. You are a part of Earth, a global not local sum. You can reach anyone just a few steps away indirectly because its a small world network.


Edited by TheGene, 09 January 2020 - 11:50 PM.


#247 TheGene

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Posted 11 January 2020 - 04:00 AM

I say bravo to the predictions they are true. The computer ones are more important and more is happening there.

 

Also these are important, building your brain and your team OF brains:

  • All students have access to computers.
  • Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge.
  • Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often done remotely via computers.

I noticed Ray mentions no more cables showing, no more rotating hard drives, no real books, etc, and we are nearing that, but its more efficient still and there's always the bugs hanging around the farm - there's only a majority that will adopt this way. So we're close/ are there on that 1. The only thing off and the only thing that ACTUALLY matters on the list (besides AI, yeah all others are weak breakthroughs!!) is nanotech, our bio sucks, but that's where big data AI comes in - EASypeasy work for them nets. It's a workforce expansion thing of more computer, more data, more arms, which lead to ever more. They will soak up data off your skin literally. We do have phone/laptop pin sized cameras everywhere and everyone uses massively parallel neural network on Google/phones or at least the computer science field does who cares about laypeople anyhow!! The VR never took off but it was impractical/not important anyway.

 

 

This one I like I wonder how better our images are of the brain. I remember Ray said some stats on it, but I never researched what 2019 ended with, only like 2013. Maybe we can see axons now or something in MRI if you get me. Anyone got stats?

  • Destructive scans of the brain and noninvasive brain scans have allowed scientists to understand the brain much better. The algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain to construct a much more complex organ are being transferred into computer neural nets.

Edited by TheGene, 11 January 2020 - 04:12 AM.


#248 forever freedom

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Posted 29 January 2020 - 01:58 AM

 

 

Still having trouble finding the cost of 20 petaflop computers (processors). I pretty sure it is getting closer to $4,000.

 

 

Makes me sad that we are very very fram from this.

 

Unfortunately one of Kurzweil's most important predictions, if not the most important of all, which is the advance in computational performance, is lagging behind big time. 

 

If you see the Top 500 Supercomputer list, updated November 2019:

 

https://www.top500.org/lists/2019/11/

 

We see that only 7 computers in the world break the 20 Petaflop performance barrier. Trinity, the 7th most powerful supercomputer and the last to make the cut into the 20 petaflop range cost $174 million back in 2015 to be built (https://en.wikipedia...(supercomputer)). Even if we assume extreme deflation since then, it would still cost thousands of times more than $4,000.

 

 

I remember saying more than 10 years ago here that the only thing that really mattered and that would be a deal breaker for the Singularity etc would be a radical slowing of the computational performance advances. And that's precisely what has happened in the 10 years since.

 

I really hope AI picks up in the coming decades and saves the party but i have grown to be much more pessimistic in this last decade. Hope things speed up from now on and in 2029 i'm here with my hopes back up.



#249 Mind

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Posted 29 January 2020 - 06:17 PM

You are correct about the cost of supercomputers. The top on the list right now is Summit. 148 petaflops and cost (best case scenario) $400,000,000. That is $2.7 million per petaflop. No where near $4000 per 20 petaflop.



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#250 bluemoon

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Posted 02 February 2020 - 11:04 PM

You are correct about the cost of supercomputers. The top on the list right now is Summit. 148 petaflops and cost (best case scenario) $400,000,000. That is $2.7 million per petaflop. No where near $4000 per 20 petaflop.

 

Mark Bahner estimated last month:

 

"If I go to the Wikipedia article "FLOPS" (floating operations per second), I find data that can be graphed as shown below. Note that the y-axis is logarithmic. That means that a straight line shows the cost in dollars per gigaflop of computer power is going down exponentially.

 

A linear regression line through the data indicates that the cost in dollars per gigaflop has declined (and will decline) by approximately 11 orders of magnitude in the 42 years from 1982 ($100 million per gigaflop) to 2024 ($0.001 per gigaflop). If the human brain is approximately 10 petaflops (10 million gigaflops), then the cost for a computer that can perform the same number of calculations as a human brain in 2024 will be approximately $10,000 (i.e., 10 million gigaflops times $0.001 per g"

 

 

https://markbahner.t...moores-law.html



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#251 MichaelFocus22

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 06:26 PM

1. An intriguing thread, my only problem with technological advancement is they assume that they the greate the technological advancement the greater your quality of life, which obviously isn't the case with excess smart-phone usage. Just because we can have absolute technology augmentation, doesn't implictly mean we should. I'd really like to see CRISPR-CAS9 merge with AI, so we can start curing genetic illnesses at a ever increasing rate. As for immortality, it's unlikely, I'll be happy if I get to live to 200 years of age but this seems outlandish, sense we still need more revolutions in technological advancement and things seem to be increasingly slow as of late. Perhaps, bio-hacking underground may need to be the new norm to really speed up the experimentation process.







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