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How accurate are Ray Kurzweil's predictions?

kurzweil singularity breakthroughs biomedicine dna sequencing computing brain artificial intelligence robotics

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#211 Mind

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Posted 14 October 2014 - 05:51 PM

Useful, functional microbots are getting smaller every year: http://www.kurzweila...-to-probe-cells



#212 corb

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Posted 15 October 2014 - 05:49 PM

What is the top performance you can get for $1,000. What do the top GPUs crunch?

 

AMD_Fire_Pro_S10000_Pic_03.jpg



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#213 Mind

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Posted 09 December 2014 - 07:11 PM

Augmented reality is getting pretty good: 


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#214 niner

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Posted 10 December 2014 - 12:37 AM

The video title says it's a hologram, but it looks like it's in an IMAX-like dome.   Is this why everyone's going to Dubai?  It looks pretty wild- I wonder what it would be like to be there?



#215 Mind

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Posted 10 December 2014 - 08:06 PM

Comments in the video explain that it is augmented reality. The people on the stage see nothing. People wearing augmented reality goggles in the audience see the computer generated animals. Not holographic but still spectacular entertainment, it seems.



#216 Mind

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Posted 22 December 2014 - 07:07 PM

Immersive virtual reality (ala stark trek holodeck) is getting closer:http://www.kurzweila...civil-engineers But it is still just vaporware to me. The Oculus Rift has been the most "awesome" VR system for what....3 or 4 years now....not yet on retail shelves (ie. vaporware).



#217 PWAIN

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Posted 22 December 2014 - 08:07 PM

In fairness, oculus is available now, just not final retail version.

#218 corb

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Posted 23 December 2014 - 06:34 PM

Immersive virtual reality (ala stark trek holodeck) is getting closer:http://www.kurzweila...civil-engineers But it is still just vaporware to me. The Oculus Rift has been the most "awesome" VR system for what....3 or 4 years now....not yet on retail shelves (ie. vaporware).

 

The problem with Occulus is they marketed it towards hardcore gamers at the beginning.
Trying to go for people that know hardware and actually have specifications was their first, biggest and last mistake - the tech just isn't there yet, it was like a young car company trying to peddle hatchbacks to racetrack drivers.

Facebook is going for a much more casual public with Occulus now and I'm sure it will be more successful under their management.



#219 Mind

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Posted 23 December 2014 - 06:37 PM

In fairness, oculus is available now, just not final retail version.

 

In fairness...it is not commercially available...and there is no time-table for its release...it is vaporware.



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#220 PWAIN

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Posted 23 December 2014 - 09:50 PM

 

In fairness, oculus is available now, just not final retail version.

 

In fairness...it is not commercially available...and there is no time-table for its release...it is vaporware.

 

 

Place your order here!!!

 

https://www.oculus.com/order/

 

The Occulus Rift Retail version in not yet a consumer product per se however the "Development kit 2" which is essentially the same thing without a few bells and whistles is commercially available and being delivered.

 

 

Commercially available:

http://www.macmillan...sh/commercially

 

commercially available/obtainable (=available to buy)

Vaporware/Vapourware:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaporware

 

"Vaporware", sometimes synonymous with "vaportalk" in the 1980s,[4] has no single definition. It is generally used to describe a hardware or software product that has been announced, but that the developer has no intention on releasing anytime soon, if ever.

 

I don't think it fits in with this definition since they do appear to be releasing product and to be working towards a full release.

 

On a side note, it's interesting to note from the wikipedia page that the first version of Windows was accused of being vaporware:

 

InfoWorld magazine editor Stewart Alsop helped popularize it by lampooning Bill Gates with a Golden Vaporware award for the late release of his company's first version of Windows in 1985.

 



#221 Mind

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Posted 23 December 2014 - 10:45 PM

From their website:

 

 

 

I understand this hardware is intended for developers and it is not a consumer product.

 

I should have said not available as a consumer product. Thanks for pointing out the subtle difference PWAIN.

 

My definition of vaporware is what Wired uses...products and software are continually promoted as the next great thing (consumer product)....arriving soon, but never does. Duke Nukem was the most classic example. They always had a new game that could have been released at any time, but they were always trying to add just a couple extra bells and whistles. The Oculus Rift seems very similar. I do think it will make it to store shelves, but I am not 100% confident. Technology moves fast. Something better from a different company could arrive any day and dominate the market.

 

In any case, visual and auditory virtual reality keeps getting better.


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#222 sensei

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Posted 29 December 2014 - 07:46 PM

On my smartphone I use voice to text almost exclusively -- if my company allowed it on my desktop I would use it there as well.

 

Fully Stacked 3-D chips are 1-2 years away now

 

California and at least one other state have approved self-driving cars

 

My next Smartphone (as in upgrade this week) quad core processor is faster, cheaper, more flops, and consumes less energy than just about every desktop available in 2008, the display is better too; it can take 16 megapixel photos, use a 128 gb micro sd, record video in 1080pHD, oh yeah -- it can act as a wifi gateway, stream movies, pay for just about anything I want to buy, comes with the capability to run an AI assistant, is a GPS, can be used on any mobile phone system around the world, can direct mini UAVs in real time, monitor my home and or (turn appliances on/off, set security system ...) interfaces with my car 


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#223 Mind

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 04:20 PM

When I am posting in this thread, I am usually referring back to the "Age of Spiritual Machines" and the predictions made within. Those predictions are relatively well-defined. Up through 2009, a few of Kurzweil's predictions were a little off (IMO) but were generally correct Now we are past the mid-point between the 2009 and 2019 predictions and it seems most of the predictions are on track. I won't go into an accounting of each one, but you can read the list and see for yourself. The self-driving cars are lagging a bit, IMO, but that could take of quick before 2019.

 

 

 

2009[edit]
  • Most books will be read on screens rather than paper.
  • Most text will be created using speech recognition technology.
  • Intelligent roads and driverless cars will be in use, mostly on highways.
  • People use personal computers the size of rings, pins, credit cards and books.
  • Personal worn computers provide monitoring of body functions, automated identity and directions for navigation.
  • Cables are disappearing. Computer peripheries use wireless communication.
  • People can talk to their computer to give commands.
  • Computer displays built into eyeglasses for augmented reality are used.
  • Computers can recognize their owner's face from a picture or video.
  • Three-dimensional chips are commonly used.
  • Sound producing speakers are being replaced with very small chip-based devices that can place high resolution sound anywhere in three-dimensional space.
  • A $1,000 computer can perform a trillion calculations per second.
  • There is increasing interest in massively parallel neural nets, genetic algorithms and other forms of "chaotic" or complexity theory computing.
  • Research has been initiated on reverse engineering the brain through both destructive and non-invasive scans.
  • Autonomous nanoengineered machines have been demonstrated and include their own computational controls.
2019[edit]
  • The computational capacity of a $4,000 computing device (in 1999 dollars) is approximately equal to the computational capability of the human brain (20 quadrillion calculations per second).
  • The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race.
  • Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.).
  • People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet.
  • These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver "augmented reality" and "virtual reality" in three different ways. First, they can project "heads-up-displays" (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the environment regardless of the user's perspective or orientation. Second, virtual objects or people could be rendered in fixed locations by the glasses, so when the user's eyes look elsewhere, the objects appear to stay in their places. Third, the devices could block out the "real" world entirely and fully immerse the user in a virtual reality environment.
  • People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. Dealing with computers thus becomes more and more like dealing with a human being.
  • Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person.
  • Most people own more than one PC, though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all sorts of unexpected shapes and sizes.
  • Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared.
  • Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used.
  • Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate.
  • Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use.
  • Destructive scans of the brain and noninvasive brain scans have allowed scientists to understand the brain much better. The algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain to construct a much more complex organ are being transferred into computer neural nets.
  • Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere.
  • Nanotechnology is more capable and is in use for specialized applications, yet it has not yet made it into the mainstream. "Nanoengineered machines" begin to be used in manufacturing.
  • Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents. The aforementioned computer eyeglasses and contact lenses are also used for this same purpose, and all download the information wirelessly.
  • Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete.
  • Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. These assistants are often not physically present, and help students remotely.
  • Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often done remotely via computers.
  • All students have access to computers.
  • Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge.
  • Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for them through speech. Sighted people also use these glasses to amplify their own abilities.
  • Retinal and neural implants also exist, but are in limited use because they are less useful.
  • Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. Cochlear and other implants are also widely used.
  • People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb steps using computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic walkers.
  • Computers are also found inside of some humans in the form of cybernetic implants. These are most commonly used by disabled people to regain normal physical faculties (i.e. - Retinal implants allow the blind to see and spinal implants coupled with mechanical legs allow the paralyzed to walk).
  • Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are routinely used in conversations.
  • Effective language technologies (natural language processing, speech recognition, speech synthesis) exist
  • Access to the Internet is completely wireless and provided by wearable or implanted computers.
  • People are able to wirelessly access the Internet at all times from almost anywhere
  • Devices that deliver sensations to the skin surface of their users (i.e.--tight body suits and gloves) are also sometimes used in virtual reality to complete the experience. "Virtual sex"—in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality, or in which a human can have sex with a "simulated" partner that only exists on a computer—becomes a reality.
  • Just as visual- and auditory virtual reality have come of age, haptic technology has fully matured and is completely convincing, yet requires the user to enter a V.R. booth. It is commonly used for computer sex and remote medical examinations. It is the preferred sexual medium since it is safe and enhances the experience.
  • Worldwide economic growth has continued. There has not been a global economic collapse.
  • The vast majority of business interactions occur between humans and simulated retailers, or between a human's virtual personal assistant and a simulated retailer.
  • Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable.
  • Computers do most of the vehicle driving—-humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. Furthermore, when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control whenever the human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents.
  • Most roads now have automated driving systems—networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate.
  • Prototype personal flying vehicles using microflaps exist. They are also primarily computer-controlled.
  • Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which hold some advantages over human partners. The depth of some computer personalities convinces some people that they should be accorded more rights.
  • While a growing number of humans believe that their computers and the simulated personalities they interact with are intelligent to the point of human-level consciousness, experts dismiss the possibility that any could pass the Turing Test.
  • Human-robot relationships begin as simulated personalities become more convincing.
  • Interaction with virtual personalities becomes a primary interface
  • Public places and workplaces are ubiquitously monitored to prevent violence and all actions are recorded permanently. Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes.
  • The basic needs of the underclass are met. (Not specified if this pertains only to the developed world or to all countries)
  • Virtual artists—creative computers capable of making their own art and music—emerge in all fields of the arts.

 



#224 Kalliste

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Posted 02 January 2015 - 07:51 AM

Immersive virtual reality (ala stark trek holodeck) is getting closer:http://www.kurzweila...civil-engineers But it is still just vaporware to me. The Oculus Rift has been the most "awesome" VR system for what....3 or 4 years now....not yet on retail shelves (ie. vaporware).

 

Did you read Rainbows End by Vernor Vinge? I never realized how weird the world will become with AR/IR until reading this.

(That was also the book that got me into radical life extension as the protagonist starts the story while undergoing rejuvenation treatment)



#225 Mind

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Posted 03 January 2015 - 01:23 PM

This is why Kurzweil is likely to be correct (IMO), explained by someone other than Kurzweil: http://www.ted.com/t...n_learn#t-18747



#226 seivtcho

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Posted 03 January 2015 - 01:52 PM

•Most text will be created using speech recognition technology.
 

I wonder if there are GNU or freeware speech recognition technology for dictating texts.

 



#227 A941

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Posted 05 January 2015 - 08:08 AM

@seivtcho

There is that speech to text thing that comes with android if Iam not mistaken.

 

@Mind

I read his book somewhere before 2009 i think, and he is quiet accurate.

Many things didnt happen in 2009 but some years later, but some things are still not in use, like driverless cars.

Yes the technology already exists, but i have doubts about it being used soon mainly because legal problems.

I once had a talk about driverless cars (cant remember with whom), and i said that i think that in the future the insurance companys will force us to use cars in that way, maybe not for every distance, but for sure if we drive for more than half an hour, because the risk of causing an accident will drop and the insurance will save money.

The other persons thoughts on this were that this would not work because if somen is driving an automated car and that car gets involved in an accident with another automated car, then who is the guilty party? If it was not the fault of one of the drivers then it maybe the fault of the car manufacturer, so they may be against the use of this technology.

 

But who knows maybe driverless cars are making more profit for the insurance companys and they will create a fond to cover one or the other accident so that the Ford and Mercedes dont get upset. ;-)


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#228 seivtcho

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Posted 05 January 2015 - 02:51 PM

In electronics everything will happen, simply because many people are developing it very enthusiastically. There are huge work hours thrown in the electronics. You can bravely unleash your fantasy to say what will happen in this field. You can say for example, that the MRI will become so portable, fast and and with such a high resolution, that we will have pocket MRIs, that will be able to give 3D images of cancer cells and will replace the biopsies. The key in the futurism in the electronics is to say when this will happen. And this is exactly where Ray Kurzweil failed.



#229 Antonio2014

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Posted 17 January 2015 - 05:05 PM

•Most text will be created using speech recognition technology.
 

I wonder if there are GNU or freeware speech recognition technology for dictating texts.

 

http://en.wikipedia....gnition_engines



#230 seivtcho

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Posted 17 January 2015 - 09:10 PM

 

•Most text will be created using speech recognition technology.
 

I wonder if there are GNU or freeware speech recognition technology for dictating texts.

 

http://en.wikipedia....gnition_engines

 

 

Thanks :) Useful link, actually.
 



#231 Mind

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Posted 08 February 2015 - 02:45 PM

Another popular media article about accelerating progress. http://www.forbes.co...-than-expected/



#232 Mind

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Posted 20 December 2015 - 04:09 PM

 

2009[edit]

  • Most books will be read on screens rather than paper.
  • Most text will be created using speech recognition technology.
  • Intelligent roads and driverless cars will be in use, mostly on highways.
  • People use personal computers the size of rings, pins, credit cards and books.
  • Personal worn computers provide monitoring of body functions, automated identity and directions for navigation.
  • Cables are disappearing. Computer peripheries use wireless communication.
  • People can talk to their computer to give commands.
  • Computer displays built into eyeglasses for augmented reality are used.
  • Computers can recognize their owner's face from a picture or video.
  • Three-dimensional chips are commonly used.
  • Sound producing speakers are being replaced with very small chip-based devices that can place high resolution sound anywhere in three-dimensional space.
  • A $1,000 computer can perform a trillion calculations per second.
  • There is increasing interest in massively parallel neural nets, genetic algorithms and other forms of "chaotic" or complexity theory computing.
  • Research has been initiated on reverse engineering the brain through both destructive and non-invasive scans.
  • Autonomous nanoengineered machines have been demonstrated and include their own computational controls.
2019[edit]
  • The computational capacity of a $4,000 computing device (in 1999 dollars) is approximately equal to the computational capability of the human brain (20 quadrillion calculations per second).
  • The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race.
  • Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.).
  • People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet.
  • These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver "augmented reality" and "virtual reality" in three different ways. First, they can project "heads-up-displays" (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the environment regardless of the user's perspective or orientation. Second, virtual objects or people could be rendered in fixed locations by the glasses, so when the user's eyes look elsewhere, the objects appear to stay in their places. Third, the devices could block out the "real" world entirely and fully immerse the user in a virtual reality environment.
  • People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. Dealing with computers thus becomes more and more like dealing with a human being.
  • Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person.
  • Most people own more than one PC, though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all sorts of unexpected shapes and sizes.
  • Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared.
  • Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used.
  • Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate.
  • Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use.
  • Destructive scans of the brain and noninvasive brain scans have allowed scientists to understand the brain much better. The algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain to construct a much more complex organ are being transferred into computer neural nets.
  • Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere.
  • Nanotechnology is more capable and is in use for specialized applications, yet it has not yet made it into the mainstream. "Nanoengineered machines" begin to be used in manufacturing.
  • Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents. The aforementioned computer eyeglasses and contact lenses are also used for this same purpose, and all download the information wirelessly.
  • Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete.
  • Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. These assistants are often not physically present, and help students remotely.
  • Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often done remotely via computers.
  • All students have access to computers.
  • Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge.
  • Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for them through speech. Sighted people also use these glasses to amplify their own abilities.
  • Retinal and neural implants also exist, but are in limited use because they are less useful.
  • Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. Cochlear and other implants are also widely used.
  • People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb steps using computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic walkers.
  • Computers are also found inside of some humans in the form of cybernetic implants. These are most commonly used by disabled people to regain normal physical faculties (i.e. - Retinal implants allow the blind to see and spinal implants coupled with mechanical legs allow the paralyzed to walk).
  • Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are routinely used in conversations.
  • Effective language technologies (natural language processing, speech recognition, speech synthesis) exist
  • Access to the Internet is completely wireless and provided by wearable or implanted computers.
  • People are able to wirelessly access the Internet at all times from almost anywhere
  • Devices that deliver sensations to the skin surface of their users (i.e.--tight body suits and gloves) are also sometimes used in virtual reality to complete the experience. "Virtual sex"—in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality, or in which a human can have sex with a "simulated" partner that only exists on a computer—becomes a reality.
  • Just as visual- and auditory virtual reality have come of age, haptic technology has fully matured and is completely convincing, yet requires the user to enter a V.R. booth. It is commonly used for computer sex and remote medical examinations. It is the preferred sexual medium since it is safe and enhances the experience.
  • Worldwide economic growth has continued. There has not been a global economic collapse.
  • The vast majority of business interactions occur between humans and simulated retailers, or between a human's virtual personal assistant and a simulated retailer.
  • Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable.
  • Computers do most of the vehicle driving—-humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. Furthermore, when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control whenever the human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents.
  • Most roads now have automated driving systems—networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate.
  • Prototype personal flying vehicles using microflaps exist. They are also primarily computer-controlled.
  • Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which hold some advantages over human partners. The depth of some computer personalities convinces some people that they should be accorded more rights.
  • While a growing number of humans believe that their computers and the simulated personalities they interact with are intelligent to the point of human-level consciousness, experts dismiss the possibility that any could pass the Turing Test.
  • Human-robot relationships begin as simulated personalities become more convincing.
  • Interaction with virtual personalities becomes a primary interface
  • Public places and workplaces are ubiquitously monitored to prevent violence and all actions are recorded permanently. Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes.
  • The basic needs of the underclass are met. (Not specified if this pertains only to the developed world or to all countries)
  • Virtual artists—creative computers capable of making their own art and music—emerge in all fields of the arts.

 

Another year has passed and Kurzweil's predictions are still looking pretty good. Many technologies are here but social hurdles keep them from being widespread. Self-driving cars perform near flawlessly and could be used on most roads, but it might be a couple of years before they are widespread, because of legal hurdles and social resistance.



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#233 sthira

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Posted 20 December 2015 - 07:18 PM

When I get discouraged about the seemingly glacial pace of "science" I listen to Kurzweil speeches from like two years ago, five years ago, ten years ago. And in that time I learn a lot about my impatience. I'm happy Kurzweil exists and keeps talking. He's funny in a Marx brothers kinda way. Like Groucho.

#234 Major Legend

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Posted 23 December 2015 - 08:32 PM

 

 

2009[edit]

  • Most books will be read on screens rather than paper.
  • Most text will be created using speech recognition technology. - Already very possible withe Siri, Dragon Dictacte and so on. It's just not very sexy to talk to a computer in public or even alone. It's tiring
  • Intelligent roads and driverless cars will be in use, mostly on highways. - Close we have Autopilot on Tesla
  • People use personal computers the size of rings, pins, credit cards and books.
  • Personal worn computers provide monitoring of body functions, automated identity and directions for navigation.
  • Cables are disappearing. Computer peripheries use wireless communication.
  • People can talk to their computer to give commands.
  • Computer displays built into eyeglasses for augmented reality are used.
  • Computers can recognize their owner's face from a picture or video. - My Surface Book Pro 4 has this its called Windows Hello and uses intel 3d camera technology
  • Three-dimensional chips are commonly used.
  • Sound producing speakers are being replaced with very small chip-based devices that can place high resolution sound anywhere in three-dimensional space.
  • A $1,000 computer can perform a trillion calculations per second. - 
  • There is increasing interest in massively parallel neural nets, genetic algorithms and other forms of "chaotic" or complexity theory computing.
  • Research has been initiated on reverse engineering the brain through both destructive and non-invasive scans.
  • Autonomous nanoengineered machines have been demonstrated and include their own computational controls.
2019[edit]
  • The computational capacity of a $4,000 computing device (in 1999 dollars) is approximately equal to the computational capability of the human brain (20 quadrillion calculations per second).
  • The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race.
  • Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.).
  • People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet. - Close but not there yet.
  • These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver "augmented reality" and "virtual reality" in three different ways. First, they can project "heads-up-displays" (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the environment regardless of the user's perspective or orientation. Second, virtual objects or people could be rendered in fixed locations by the glasses, so when the user's eyes look elsewhere, the objects appear to stay in their places. Third, the devices could block out the "real" world entirely and fully immerse the user in a virtual reality environment. Close but not there yet.
  • People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. Dealing with computers thus becomes more and more like dealing with a human being.
  • Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person.
  • Most people own more than one PC, though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all sorts of unexpected shapes and sizes.
  • Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared. - Only if you own the best equipment.
  • Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used.
  • Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate.
  • Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use. - Lots of progress has been made here, we have neural nets that can solve problems already, even better we have deep libraries that make even simply neural nets exponentially powerful.
  • Destructive scans of the brain and noninvasive brain scans have allowed scientists to understand the brain much better. The algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain to construct a much more complex organ are being transferred into computer neural nets.
  • Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere. - Not far off, but do we even need them that small?
  • Nanotechnology is more capable and is in use for specialized applications, yet it has not yet made it into the mainstream. "Nanoengineered machines" begin to be used in manufacturing.
  • Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents. The aforementioned computer eyeglasses and contact lenses are also used for this same purpose, and all download the information wirelessly.
  • Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete.
  • Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. These assistants are often not physically present, and help students remotely. - Code Combat, Codecademy
  • Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often done remotely via computers.
  • All students have access to computers.
  • Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge.
  • Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for them through speech. Sighted people also use these glasses to amplify their own abilities.
  • Retinal and neural implants also exist, but are in limited use because they are less useful.
  • Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. Cochlear and other implants are also widely used.
  • People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb steps using computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic walkers.
  • Computers are also found inside of some humans in the form of cybernetic implants. These are most commonly used by disabled people to regain normal physical faculties (i.e. - Retinal implants allow the blind to see and spinal implants coupled with mechanical legs allow the paralyzed to walk).
  • Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are routinely used in conversations.
  • Effective language technologies (natural language processing, speech recognition, speech synthesis) exist
  • Access to the Internet is completely wireless and provided by wearable or implanted computers.
  • People are able to wirelessly access the Internet at all times from almost anywhere
  • Devices that deliver sensations to the skin surface of their users (i.e.--tight body suits and gloves) are also sometimes used in virtual reality to complete the experience. "Virtual sex"—in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality, or in which a human can have sex with a "simulated" partner that only exists on a computer—becomes a reality.
  • Just as visual- and auditory virtual reality have come of age, haptic technology has fully matured and is completely convincing, yet requires the user to enter a V.R. booth. It is commonly used for computer sex and remote medical examinations. It is the preferred sexual medium since it is safe and enhances the experience.
  • Worldwide economic growth has continued. There has not been a global economic collapse.
  • The vast majority of business interactions occur between humans and simulated retailers, or between a human's virtual personal assistant and a simulated retailer. - Can argue ecommerce here, which is rapidly becoming the dominant form of retail
  • Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable. - I have both a robot dog and a robot vacuum cleaner + a drone. Not hard to imagine it being possible, is it practical?
  • Computers do most of the vehicle driving—-humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. Furthermore, when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control whenever the human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents. - Tesla has this
  • Most roads now have automated driving systems—networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate.
  • Prototype personal flying vehicles using microflaps exist. They are also primarily computer-controlled.
  • Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which hold some advantages over human partners. The depth of some computer personalities convinces some people that they should be accorded more rights. - Am I sensing an obsession with virtual girlfriend robots in VR?
  • While a growing number of humans believe that their computers and the simulated personalities they interact with are intelligent to the point of human-level consciousness, experts dismiss the possibility that any could pass the Turing Test.
  • Human-robot relationships begin as simulated personalities become more convincing.
  • Interaction with virtual personalities becomes a primary interface - Siri and Cortana being more and more useful
  • Public places and workplaces are ubiquitously monitored to prevent violence and all actions are recorded permanently. Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes.
  • The basic needs of the underclass are met. (Not specified if this pertains only to the developed world or to all countries) - I WISH
  • Virtual artists—creative computers capable of making their own art and music—emerge in all fields of the arts.

 

Another year has passed and Kurzweil's predictions are still looking pretty good. Many technologies are here but social hurdles keep them from being widespread. Self-driving cars perform near flawlessly and could be used on most roads, but it might be a couple of years before they are widespread, because of legal hurdles and social resistance.

 

 

Made bold the ones that are already close or has happened.

 

The problem with Ray Kurzweil is - see a pattern here? Moore's law applies readily to computer technology it hasn't translated into brain technology,medicine, biotechnologies or other forms of technology, such as governance. You could argue eventually computer technology will spread into biotechnology making it exponential. His point about singularity though is that 99% is basically nothing happening, so we are probably 10-30 years away from everything converging exponentially, provided no significant setbacks happen like a global meltdown.

 

So we are STILL 4 years from his 2019 predictions, in general pretty amazing predictions, because it literally was all science fiction at the time of his writing.


Edited by Major Legend, 23 December 2015 - 08:34 PM.


#235 sensei

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Posted 18 January 2016 - 09:23 PM

 


 

 

 

The problem with Ray Kurzweil is - see a pattern here? Moore's law applies readily to computer technology it hasn't translated into brain technology,medicine, biotechnologies 

 

So we are STILL 4 years from his 2019 predictions, in general pretty amazing predictions, because it literally was all science fiction at the time of his writing.

 

 

I would argue that with the advent of Crispr Cas9 technology -- biotech is on the verge of exponential development.

 

With crispr cas9, you  can rewrite the genome of LIVING organisms.  

 

A significant number of bio-technologists believe that crispr cas9 will likely be able to fix chromosomal syndromes like Downs, and facilitate genetic sex-change procedures with either a genetic chimera (plenty living examples of chimeric humans function normally, except for reproduction) or a complete change from XY-XX.


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#236 Mind

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Posted 29 December 2017 - 07:46 PM

 

 

2009[edit]

  • Most books will be read on screens rather than paper.
  • Most text will be created using speech recognition technology.
  • Intelligent roads and driverless cars will be in use, mostly on highways.
  • People use personal computers the size of rings, pins, credit cards and books.
  • Personal worn computers provide monitoring of body functions, automated identity and directions for navigation.
  • Cables are disappearing. Computer peripheries use wireless communication.
  • People can talk to their computer to give commands.
  • Computer displays built into eyeglasses for augmented reality are used.
  • Computers can recognize their owner's face from a picture or video.
  • Three-dimensional chips are commonly used.
  • Sound producing speakers are being replaced with very small chip-based devices that can place high resolution sound anywhere in three-dimensional space.
  • A $1,000 computer can perform a trillion calculations per second.
  • There is increasing interest in massively parallel neural nets, genetic algorithms and other forms of "chaotic" or complexity theory computing.
  • Research has been initiated on reverse engineering the brain through both destructive and non-invasive scans.
  • Autonomous nanoengineered machines have been demonstrated and include their own computational controls.
2019[edit]
  • The computational capacity of a $4,000 computing device (in 1999 dollars) is approximately equal to the computational capability of the human brain (20 quadrillion calculations per second).
  • The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race.
  • Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.).
  • People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet.
  • These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver "augmented reality" and "virtual reality" in three different ways. First, they can project "heads-up-displays" (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the environment regardless of the user's perspective or orientation. Second, virtual objects or people could be rendered in fixed locations by the glasses, so when the user's eyes look elsewhere, the objects appear to stay in their places. Third, the devices could block out the "real" world entirely and fully immerse the user in a virtual reality environment.
  • People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. Dealing with computers thus becomes more and more like dealing with a human being.
  • Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person.
  • Most people own more than one PC, though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all sorts of unexpected shapes and sizes.
  • Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared.
  • Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used.
  • Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate.
  • Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use.
  • Destructive scans of the brain and noninvasive brain scans have allowed scientists to understand the brain much better. The algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain to construct a much more complex organ are being transferred into computer neural nets.
  • Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere.
  • Nanotechnology is more capable and is in use for specialized applications, yet it has not yet made it into the mainstream. "Nanoengineered machines" begin to be used in manufacturing.
  • Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents. The aforementioned computer eyeglasses and contact lenses are also used for this same purpose, and all download the information wirelessly.
  • Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete.
  • Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. These assistants are often not physically present, and help students remotely.
  • Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often done remotely via computers.
  • All students have access to computers.
  • Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge.
  • Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for them through speech. Sighted people also use these glasses to amplify their own abilities.
  • Retinal and neural implants also exist, but are in limited use because they are less useful.
  • Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. Cochlear and other implants are also widely used.
  • People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb steps using computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic walkers.
  • Computers are also found inside of some humans in the form of cybernetic implants. These are most commonly used by disabled people to regain normal physical faculties (i.e. - Retinal implants allow the blind to see and spinal implants coupled with mechanical legs allow the paralyzed to walk).
  • Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are routinely used in conversations.
  • Effective language technologies (natural language processing, speech recognition, speech synthesis) exist
  • Access to the Internet is completely wireless and provided by wearable or implanted computers.
  • People are able to wirelessly access the Internet at all times from almost anywhere
  • Devices that deliver sensations to the skin surface of their users (i.e.--tight body suits and gloves) are also sometimes used in virtual reality to complete the experience. "Virtual sex"—in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality, or in which a human can have sex with a "simulated" partner that only exists on a computer—becomes a reality.
  • Just as visual- and auditory virtual reality have come of age, haptic technology has fully matured and is completely convincing, yet requires the user to enter a V.R. booth. It is commonly used for computer sex and remote medical examinations. It is the preferred sexual medium since it is safe and enhances the experience.
  • Worldwide economic growth has continued. There has not been a global economic collapse.
  • The vast majority of business interactions occur between humans and simulated retailers, or between a human's virtual personal assistant and a simulated retailer.
  • Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable.
  • Computers do most of the vehicle driving—-humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. Furthermore, when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control whenever the human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents.
  • Most roads now have automated driving systems—networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate.
  • Prototype personal flying vehicles using microflaps exist. They are also primarily computer-controlled.
  • Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which hold some advantages over human partners. The depth of some computer personalities convinces some people that they should be accorded more rights.
  • While a growing number of humans believe that their computers and the simulated personalities they interact with are intelligent to the point of human-level consciousness, experts dismiss the possibility that any could pass the Turing Test.
  • Human-robot relationships begin as simulated personalities become more convincing.
  • Interaction with virtual personalities becomes a primary interface
  • Public places and workplaces are ubiquitously monitored to prevent violence and all actions are recorded permanently. Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes.
  • The basic needs of the underclass are met. (Not specified if this pertains only to the developed world or to all countries)
  • Virtual artists—creative computers capable of making their own art and music—emerge in all fields of the arts.

 

 

 

Time for the yearly check up.

 

Just looking at the first item on the list to come to pass before the end of 2019 - a $4,000 computer to surpass 20 quadrillion calculations per second. Currently, the top supercomputer in the world has a peak performance of 1.25 exaflops, which is 1,250 quadrillion calculations per second....so, far more than a single human brain (although there are much different estimates of the true "flops" of the brain).

 

Anyone know what top gaming PCs and graphics cards can do? I think they are getting close to a petaflop, right? A petaflop is 1 quadrillion calculations per second. Could a $4,000 computer (or CPU, or graphics card) reach 20 quadrillion in the next 2 years. Seems likely.



#237 sensei

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Posted 30 December 2017 - 12:05 AM

 


 

 

Time for the yearly check up.

 

Just looking at the first item on the list to come to pass before the end of 2019 - a $4,000 computer to surpass 20 quadrillion calculations per second. Currently, the top supercomputer in the world has a peak performance of 1.25 exaflops, which is 1,250 quadrillion calculations per second....so, far more than a single human brain (although there are much different estimates of the true "flops" of the brain).

 

Anyone know what top gaming PCs and graphics cards can do? I think they are getting close to a petaflop, right? A petaflop is 1 quadrillion calculations per second. Could a $4,000 computer (or CPU, or graphics card) reach 20 quadrillion in the next 2 years. Seems likely.

 

 

We are somewhere around 100 Teraflops for GPUs @ $4000 (new) ( I think 20 RX 480 cards can get there -- ata normal $199 -- instead of jacked up to mine currency)

 

Now used -- we can probably get to around 400 Teraflops

 

The GTX 1070 ti pushes 8.1 teraflops meaning you need 125 to get to a petaflop -- you can find them used for 200-250  if you look really hard

 

So that's about $25 Grand for a petaflop today  with those cards

 

The $4000 is in 1999 dollars which = 6k today -- so we are getting really close


Edited by sensei, 30 December 2017 - 12:40 AM.


#238 sensei

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Posted 30 December 2017 - 12:49 AM

  • The computational capacity of a $4,000 computing device (in 1999 dollars) is approximately equal to the computational capability of the human brain (20 quadrillion calculations per second).

ALMOST NOW

  • The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race.

YUP

  • Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.).

This is a YES to some degree 

  • People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet.

YUP NOW

  • These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver "augmented reality" and "virtual reality" in three different ways. First, they can project "heads-up-displays" (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the environment regardless of the user's perspective or orientation. Second, virtual objects or people could be rendered in fixed locations by the glasses, so when the user's eyes look elsewhere, the objects appear to stay in their places. Third, the devices could block out the "real" world entirely and fully immerse the user in a virtual reality environment.

YUP NOW

  • People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. Dealing with computers thus becomes more and more like dealing with a human being.

YUP NOW

  • Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person.

NOPE

  • Most people own more than one PC, though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all sorts of unexpected shapes and sizes.

YES YES YES -- Our household has 5 laptops 3 desktops and 5 cell phones that are the equivalent of a desktop

  • Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared.

except for high bandwidth interconnect fabric -- YUP NOW

  • Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used.

SSD baby

  • Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate.

NOT YET

  • Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use.

NOT QUITE

  • Destructive scans of the brain and noninvasive brain scans have allowed scientists to understand the brain much better. The algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain to construct a much more complex organ are being transferred into computer neural nets.

YES

  • Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere.

YES (really)

  • Nanotechnology is more capable and is in use for specialized applications, yet it has not yet made it into the mainstream. "Nanoengineered machines" begin to be used in manufacturing.

ABSO-FRICKING LUTELY

  • Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents. The aforementioned computer eyeglasses and contact lenses are also used for this same purpose, and all download the information wirelessly.

Not quite

  • Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete.

Not yet -- but almost

  • Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. These assistants are often not physically present, and help students remotely.

ALMOST THERE

  • Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often done remotely via computers.

NO

  • All students have access to computers.

First World -- that's a yes

  • Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge.

YES

  • Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for them through speech. Sighted people also use these glasses to amplify their own abilities.

Dobelle Eye and newer advanced cortical implants -- YES

  • Retinal and neural implants also exist, but are in limited use because they are less useful.

I disagree with his statement

  • Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. Cochlear and other implants are also widely used.

IHNFC (I have no fucking clue)  -- Cochlear Implants -- YES YES YES

  • People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb steps using computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic walkers.

YES YES YES

  • Computers are also found inside of some humans in the form of cybernetic implants. These are most commonly used by disabled people to regain normal physical faculties (i.e. - Retinal implants allow the blind to see and spinal implants coupled with mechanical legs allow the paralyzed to walk).

YES

  • Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are routinely used in conversations.

Siri ...

  • Effective language technologies (natural language processing, speech recognition, speech synthesis) exist

Google what is ....

  • Access to the Internet is completely wireless and provided by wearable or implanted computers.

Yup

  • People are able to wirelessly access the Internet at all times from almost anywhere

Yup (first world)

  • Devices that deliver sensations to the skin surface of their users (i.e.--tight body suits and gloves) are also sometimes used in virtual reality to complete the experience. "Virtual sex"—in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality, or in which a human can have sex with a "simulated" partner that only exists on a computer—becomes a reality.

This does actually exist -- in beta 

  • Just as visual- and auditory virtual reality have come of age, haptic technology has fully matured and is completely convincing, yet requires the user to enter a V.R. booth. It is commonly used for computer sex and remote medical examinations. It is the preferred sexual medium since it is safe and enhances the experience.

YES

  • Worldwide economic growth has continued. There has not been a global economic collapse.

Except for the RE bubble -- YES

  • The vast majority of business interactions occur between humans and simulated retailers, or between a human's virtual personal assistant and a simulated retailer.

AMAZON

  • Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable.

ROOMBA

  • Computers do most of the vehicle driving—-humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. Furthermore, when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control whenever the human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents.

NOPE

  • Most roads now have automated driving systems—networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate.

NOPE

  • Prototype personal flying vehicles using microflaps exist. They are also primarily computer-controlled.

NOPE

  • Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which hold some advantages over human partners. The depth of some computer personalities convinces some people that they should be accorded more rights.

YES

  • While a growing number of humans believe that their computers and the simulated personalities they interact with are intelligent to the point of human-level consciousness, experts dismiss the possibility that any could pass the Turing Test.

YES

  • Human-robot relationships begin as simulated personalities become more convincing.

YES

  • Interaction with virtual personalities becomes a primary interface

Siri, Cortana, ..

  • Public places and workplaces are ubiquitously monitored to prevent violence and all actions are recorded permanently. Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes.

Most major cities this is almost true, WPA2 with AES 256 is virtually unbreakable with the proper length password, can you say monero, z-cash, etc -- completely anonymous currencies (Zcash has a 2^75 difficulty to break by brute force -- the heat death of the universe will happen first)

  • The basic needs of the underclass are met. (Not specified if this pertains only to the developed world or to all countries)

NOT HARDLY -- GREEDY BASTARDS

  • Virtual artists—creative computers capable of making their own art and music—emerge in all fields of the arts.

NOPE -- The Culture we are yet not


Edited by sensei, 30 December 2017 - 01:04 AM.


#239 sensei

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Posted 30 December 2017 - 12:53 AM

I give him a solid 30/45

 

With 2 years to go

 

 

The Oracle of Delphi should be so prescient -- or Paul Maud'dib


Edited by sensei, 30 December 2017 - 01:01 AM.


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#240 Mind

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Posted 29 December 2018 - 12:17 PM

Another year has passed. We have now reached one of the big years in Kurzweil's predictions. Before anyone jumps in and says "that's so easy...I could have predicted that!", just remember that these predictions were made 20 years ago. I don't claim to be so brilliant to have made all of these predictions. I would appear pretentious and fake in doing so. For those who think they are such great prognosticators, tell me something specific that will develop/happen 20 years from now, in 2039.

 

On to the list. Seems like most of the predictions are still "above average" in skill. A couple that jump out to me that are lagging are:

 

The 20 petaflop computer for $4,000. From a brief search of current petaflop-scale computers, seems this might be off by a factor of 10. Could the cost drop enough in 2019 to make this prediction perfectly accurate? Probably not, but maybe by the end of 2020, which would still make it a pretty good prediction.

 

Three dimensional nanotube lattices are the primary computing substrate. Not accurate.

 

Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable. Kind-of. Traditional robots are not ubiquitous, we are still stuck on Roomba, which is very reliable. Amazon's Alexa, Nest, and Google Home devices are more ubiquitous, but not really robots in the traditional sense.

 

 

 

  • The computational capacity of a $4,000 computing device (in 1999 dollars) is approximately equal to the computational capability of the human brain (20 quadrillion calculations per second).
  • The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race.
  • Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.).
  • People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet.
  • These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver "augmented reality" and "virtual reality" in three different ways. First, they can project "heads-up-displays" (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the environment regardless of the user's perspective or orientation. Second, virtual objects or people could be rendered in fixed locations by the glasses, so when the user's eyes look elsewhere, the objects appear to stay in their places. Third, the devices could block out the "real" world entirely and fully immerse the user in a virtual reality environment.
  • People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. Dealing with computers thus becomes more and more like dealing with a human being.
  • Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person.
  • Most people own more than one PC, though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all sorts of unexpected shapes and sizes.
  • Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared.
  • Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used.
  • Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate.
  • Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use.
  • Destructive scans of the brain and noninvasive brain scans have allowed scientists to understand the brain much better. The algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain to construct a much more complex organ are being transferred into computer neural nets.
  • Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere.
  • Nanotechnology is more capable and is in use for specialized applications, yet it has not yet made it into the mainstream. "Nanoengineered machines" begin to be used in manufacturing.
  • Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents. The aforementioned computer eyeglasses and contact lenses are also used for this same purpose, and all download the information wirelessly.
  • Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete.
  • Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. These assistants are often not physically present, and help students remotely.
  • Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often done remotely via computers.
  • All students have access to computers.
  • Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge.
  • Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for them through speech. Sighted people also use these glasses to amplify their own abilities.
  • Retinal and neural implants also exist, but are in limited use because they are less useful.
  • Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. Cochlear and other implants are also widely used.
  • People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb steps using computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic walkers.
  • Computers are also found inside of some humans in the form of cybernetic implants. These are most commonly used by disabled people to regain normal physical faculties (i.e. - Retinal implants allow the blind to see and spinal implants coupled with mechanical legs allow the paralyzed to walk).
  • Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are routinely used in conversations.
  • Effective language technologies (natural language processing, speech recognition, speech synthesis) exist
  • Access to the Internet is completely wireless and provided by wearable or implanted computers.
  • People are able to wirelessly access the Internet at all times from almost anywhere
  • Devices that deliver sensations to the skin surface of their users (i.e.--tight body suits and gloves) are also sometimes used in virtual reality to complete the experience. "Virtual sex"—in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality, or in which a human can have sex with a "simulated" partner that only exists on a computer—becomes a reality.
  • Just as visual- and auditory virtual reality have come of age, haptic technology has fully matured and is completely convincing, yet requires the user to enter a V.R. booth. It is commonly used for computer sex and remote medical examinations. It is the preferred sexual medium since it is safe and enhances the experience.
  • Worldwide economic growth has continued. There has not been a global economic collapse.
  • The vast majority of business interactions occur between humans and simulated retailers, or between a human's virtual personal assistant and a simulated retailer.
  • Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable.
  • Computers do most of the vehicle driving—-humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. Furthermore, when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control whenever the human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents.
  • Most roads now have automated driving systems—networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate.
  • Prototype personal flying vehicles using microflaps exist. They are also primarily computer-controlled.
  • Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which hold some advantages over human partners. The depth of some computer personalities convinces some people that they should be accorded more rights.
  • While a growing number of humans believe that their computers and the simulated personalities they interact with are intelligent to the point of human-level consciousness, experts dismiss the possibility that any could pass the Turing Test.
  • Human-robot relationships begin as simulated personalities become more convincing.
  • Interaction with virtual personalities becomes a primary interface
  • Public places and workplaces are ubiquitously monitored to prevent violence and all actions are recorded permanently. Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes.
  • The basic needs of the underclass are met. (Not specified if this pertains only to the developed world or to all countries)
  • Virtual artists—creative computers capable of making their own art and music—emerge in all fields of the arts.

 







Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: kurzweil, singularity, breakthroughs, biomedicine, dna sequencing, computing, brain, artificial intelligence, robotics

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