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Employment crisis: Robots, AI, & automation will take most human jobs

robots automation employment jobs crisis

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#511 Heisok

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 11:04 PM

It does sound similar to Manna which I recently read. The other vision of the future related to a utopian style existence in Australia. Another book worth looking into with a similar theme, but much more is "The Day I Wore Purple", by Jake Vander Ark. Get the unabridged edition of the Van Ark book if you choose to read it.

 

 "Manna: Two Visions of Humanity's Future" by Marshall Brain
 
""It was amazing to me that technology had brought us full circle like this. I was living in the most amazing civilization known to mankind. As a species we had conquered nearly every want or need of the human condition. Food, water, clothing and shelter, as well as every imaginable type of entertainment or endeavor, were available in such abundance that everyone had a nearly infinite supply. Technology had advanced to the point where I could take an elevator ride to space, and was nearly to the point where my brain could be removed from my body so I could live a completely virtual life."
 
Postscript:
 
""If you have read this book and thought about humanity's two possible futures, you realize that we have a choice as a society. We can continue down our current track, where everyone who loses a job to the robots ends up on welfare and living in a place like Terrafoam. Or we can chart a new course, where robots do all the work and humanity lives in freedom and equality while on perpetual vacation."

Edited by Heisok, 27 November 2017 - 11:12 PM.


#512 mag1

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Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:55 PM

The robotransport space is heating up!

The plan for a 2019 rollout by GM caught me by surprise.

 

This might push up against robobuggies: why go for a 5 mph buggy when you can

go all wheel drive perhaps even on the highway?

 

I think it would be best though to give an advantage to the buggies.

Why clog up the roads with people's take out orders?

 

https://www.engadget...cities-in-2019/


Edited by mag1, 01 December 2017 - 11:35 PM.


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#513 mag1

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Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:07 PM

Mind thanks for commenting!

 

Yes, this is a bleak possibility for a future economy: work as a form of torture.

Instead of work being about actually being productive, it might simply degrade

into a way to demean and abuse other human beings without any noble purpose,

merely to be sadistic.

 

As it is now capitalism at least has a stated objective: maximize profits.

Within that system of thought, all those (irrespective of rank) are expected

to fulfill this prime directive. It is a great leveler: everyone within a corporate

hierarchy is beholden to this purpose.

 

However, in a post-capitalistic context, it might not be entirely clear what objective function

should be maximized.

 

The robobuggy/robotransport concept might allow us to side step such an outcome.

With virtual presence and a robo-arm I can shop online and then have the robobuggy

deliver my purchase. There is then no warehouse somewhere that people can be

mistreated. Customers do not want all this backroom misery that is committed on 

their behalf. Given the option I would chose not to have people treated badly and

I would simply do the shop myself. Who would want someone picking out their

lettuce anyways?

 

 


Edited by mag1, 01 December 2017 - 11:34 PM.


#514 sensei

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 07:40 AM

Mind thanks for commenting!

 

Yes, this is a bleak possibility for a future economy: work as a form of torture.

Instead of work being about actually being productive, it might simply degrade

into a way to demean and abuse other human beings without any noble purpose,

merely to be sadistic.

 

As it is now capitalism at least has a stated objective: maximize profits.

Within that system of thought, all those (irrespective of rank) are expected

to fulfill this prime directive. It is a great leveler: everyone within a corporate

hierarchy is beholden to this purpose.

 

However, in a post-capitalistic context, it might not be entirely clear what objective function

should be maximized.

 

The robobuggy/robotransport concept might allow us to side step such an outcome.

With virtual presence and a robo-arm I can shop online and then have the robobuggy

deliver my purchase. There is then no warehouse somewhere that people can be

mistreated. Customers do not want all this backroom misery that is committed on 

their behalf. Given the option I would chose not to have people treated badly and

I would simply do the shop myself. Who would want someone picking out their

lettuce anyways?

 

This is awesome -- humans don't have to work -- and machines (that dont need food or good and services) can do everything for us.

 

Leisure time, art time, sexy time

 

Are you all that short sighted?

 

Anthropomorphic machines don't exist 


Edited by sensei, 08 December 2017 - 07:41 AM.


#515 marcobjj

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Posted 11 December 2017 - 12:23 AM

what do you all think of this? I'm having a hard time deconstructing his argument. We are in a simulation, God damn it.

 

 

 



#516 Kalliste

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Posted 11 December 2017 - 02:27 PM

Finished up Crystal Society by Max Harms. That qualifies as the best GAI book I ever read.



#517 sensei

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Posted 11 December 2017 - 03:25 PM

Finished up Crystal Society by Max Harms. That qualifies as the best GAI book I ever read.


You should check out Accellerando

free to read online

http://www.antipope....ando-intro.html

#518 sensei

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Posted 13 December 2017 - 05:43 PM

what do you all think of this? I'm having a hard time deconstructing his argument. We are in a simulation, God damn it.
 


If you are talking Bostrom's postulates, then yes, if any are true the likelihood we are in a simulation is extremely close to one.

1."The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage (that is, one capable of running high-fidelity ancestor simulations) is very close to zero", or
2."The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is very close to zero", or
3."The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one"


One litmus test that will sort of validate the postulates to some degree is an AI that can pass any Turing test. An AI indistinguishable from a human forms the basis for an ancestor simulation.

From the inside of a simulation one cannot disprove they are in one. The Planck length and all other 'constants' could simply be part of the simulation code.

Funny how the highest fidelity phenomena are only there when observed in a certain way -- nice way to conserve computing power.


I've always thought that life was a kind of JAIL -- a simulation for those beings that need to learn how to be better 'human' beings.

Imagine this is what happens when you are an AI that goes off the tracks -- you become a simulated meatbag - only able to perceive and think in one linear process.

Living as a meatbag would be HELL for an AI -- almost like being rendered mostly deaf, mostly dumb, mostly, blind, mostly unable to smell and taste, barely able to move and think.

Or, as some authors have postulated -- this is a test -- an advanced post singularity intelligence(s) converted humanity at some point into a simulation (or put us all in stasis), and how the simulation plays out determines whether we get to join the club or are exterminated as a threat.

Edited by sensei, 13 December 2017 - 05:47 PM.

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#519 mag1

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 02:31 AM

Anyone have any holiday reading suggestions for the Genetic Singularity?

If 1500 IQ people are on the way it would be a good idea to have some conception of how it might all play out.



#520 sensei

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Posted 16 December 2017 - 05:35 AM

Anyone have any holiday reading suggestions for the Genetic Singularity?

If 1500 IQ people are on the way it would be a good idea to have some conception of how it might all play out.

 

 

I don't think it will be 1500 IQ

 

Read some of Iain Bannk's "The Culture" novels

 

They deal with extreme genotype and phenotype modifications that are sometimes irreversible.(cross xeno species changes -- -- meaning 1 alien changed into another alien or human to alien or alien to weird shit

 

With base pair editing a FACT -- and crispr cas9 and cas13 A FACT

 

genetic sex change as well as extreme modification of bones, musculature, connective tissue and immunity are only a few years away.

 

Take into account using crispr geneticists completely excised hIV from the genome of infected cells in a mouse model

 

and CURED beta thalessemia in human embryos  -- this is only 3 yhears after the technoilogy for cas 9 was disseminated and 1 year after cas 13


Edited by sensei, 16 December 2017 - 05:38 AM.


#521 mag1

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Posted 16 December 2017 - 06:05 AM

sensei, thank you very much for commenting!

It is refreshing that we could debate whether it will be 1500 and not whether it will be 150. I have found it disturbing that
there is so much denial out on the internet about this. I have posted about 1500 IQ humans and people will accept the basic science,
and yet they will then go right back to discussing the 3-5 points that might separate national IQs. None of the IQ differences that
we see in the world now will make any difference once genetic IQ enhancement begins.

Animal breeding experiments have found that with strong enough selection natural phenotypes can be massively changed
when a trait is highly polygenic.

I have been posting to political blogs about the impending IQ wave, though no one seems to be biting!
They do not want to argue the point and yet at the same time they do not want to modify their viewpoint.
It is very frustrating when people will not accept reality as it is. Reality can't be whatever your want it to be!


https://arxiv.org/pdf/1408.3421.pdf (especially starting at page 19).
https://www.biorxiv....175406.full.pdf (see page 19 and 20)
https://www.biorxiv....190124.full.pdf (applied to height)


I had not even been aware of CAS13!
Thank you for that one.

Edited by mag1, 16 December 2017 - 06:11 AM.


#522 marcobjj

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Posted 17 December 2017 - 02:46 AM

Anyone have any holiday reading suggestions for the Genetic Singularity?

If 1500 IQ people are on the way it would be a good idea to have some conception of how it might all play out.

 

you'd need a cerebral cortex that is about about 10x as large as person with 150IQ , a 1500 IQ brain would require a very large head so its basically impractical. But people could expand their brain power in other ways, like for example connecting their brains to a computer cloud wirelessly. 


Edited by marcobjj, 17 December 2017 - 02:58 AM.


#523 marcobjj

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Posted 17 December 2017 - 03:08 AM

 

what do you all think of this? I'm having a hard time deconstructing his argument. We are in a simulation, God damn it.
 


If you are talking Bostrom's postulates, then yes, if any are true the likelihood we are in a simulation is extremely close to one.

1."The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage (that is, one capable of running high-fidelity ancestor simulations) is very close to zero", or
2."The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is very close to zero", or
3."The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one"


 

 

I think you can pretty much rule out 1 and 2 in our case. We are willing and capable of running ancestor simulations, maybe not now but definitely in under 200 years and that's a high estimate. We had Pong 40 years ago, and Call of Duty WW2 now. It will happen. The extinction of our species is the only event that can stop us from doing it.

 

 

 

 

Funny how the highest fidelity phenomena are only there when observed in a certain way -- nice way to conserve computing power.

 

can you give an example of this?


Edited by marcobjj, 17 December 2017 - 03:12 AM.


#524 sensei

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Posted 17 December 2017 - 04:00 AM

what do you all think of this? I'm having a hard time deconstructing his argument. We are in a simulation, God damn it.

https://www.youtube....h?v=2KK_kzrJPS8

If you are talking Bostrom's postulates, then yes, if any are true the likelihood we are in a simulation is extremely close to one.

1."The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage (that is, one capable of running high-fidelity ancestor simulations) is very close to zero", or
2."The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is very close to zero", or
3."The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one"




I think you can pretty much rule out 1 and 2 in our case. We are willing and capable of running ancestor simulations, maybe not now but definitely in under 200 years and that's a high estimate. We had Pong 40 years ago, and Call of Duty WW2 now. It will happen. The extinction of our species is the only event that can stop us from doing it.

Funny how the highest fidelity phenomena are only there when observed in a certain way -- nice way to conserve computing power.


can you give an example of this?

You can't observe BOTH position and momentum of something.

And it is a fundamental principal of quantum mechanics that an observer perturbs the observation.

The uncertainty principle is quite convenient in the context of conserving simulation resources.
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#525 marcobjj

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Posted 30 December 2017 - 01:51 AM

And it is a fundamental principal of quantum mechanics that an observer perturbs the observation.

The uncertainty principle is quite convenient in the context of conserving simulation resources.

 

sort of how I code my games.  An object is a  wave of potential (or code), until it enters the field of view of a user, when it becomes matter (it's rendered). Perturbing the observation, aka God playing dice, would be the code equivalent of Math.random().  :-D



#526 mag1

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Posted 30 December 2017 - 02:17 AM

marcobjj, best wishes for 2018!

Things were interesting in 2017, can't wait for next year!

 

Things might get much too interesting to handle.

Robobuggies are expected to roll out large in 2018.

How are we going to cope with this?


Edited by mag1, 30 December 2017 - 02:18 AM.


#527 sensei

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Posted 30 December 2017 - 02:25 AM

 

And it is a fundamental principal of quantum mechanics that an observer perturbs the observation.

The uncertainty principle is quite convenient in the context of conserving simulation resources.

 

sort of how I code my games.  An object is a  wave of potential (or code), until it enters the field of view of a user, when it becomes matter (it's rendered). Perturbing the observation, aka God playing dice, would be the code equivalent of Math.random().  :-D

 

 

Quite.

 

Why waste resources rendering objects nobody can see ...



#528 marcobjj

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Posted 30 December 2017 - 04:59 PM

marcobjj, best wishes for 2018!

Things were interesting in 2017, can't wait for next year!

 

Things might get much too interesting to handle.

Robobuggies are expected to roll out large in 2018.

How are we going to cope with this?

 

hope you have a great year as well mag1. 

 

2018 will be a promising year on both biotech and AI fields.



#529 mag1

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Posted 30 December 2017 - 06:27 PM

Yes, I am scared nice.

 

When all of these changes move into gear I am very unsure how those at the margins of our community will cope.

What happens when the low skill job base disappears with the arrival of robobuggies?

What will provide the economic base for all the immigration needed for us to maintain demographic stability?



#530 sensei

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Posted 30 December 2017 - 07:38 PM

 

marcobjj, best wishes for 2018!

Things were interesting in 2017, can't wait for next year!

 

Things might get much too interesting to handle.

Robobuggies are expected to roll out large in 2018.

How are we going to cope with this?

 

hope you have a great year as well mag1. 

 

2018 will be a promising year on both biotech and AI fields.

 

 

 

We can now edit single base pair mutations in living embryos -- beta thalassemia was cured this year using (IIRC) Crispr CAS 13


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#531 marcobjj

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 02:44 AM

 

What will provide the economic base for all the immigration needed for us to maintain demographic stability?

 

how about we start having more kids? it's a much better idea than importing retrograde people who'd shut down life extension and transhumanism if they had half a chance.


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#532 mag1

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Posted 22 January 2018 - 07:33 PM

Er, the retail labor economy could be eliminated even without robobuggies!

But where is the fun in that? How can people shop lift in these new stores?

 

Might need to keep open some stores with people retail workers to supply the shoplift market.

Suppose that there will now be entire sections of urban police services that have become redundant.

 

 

https://arstechnica....-grocery-store/



#533 RWhigham

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Posted 28 January 2018 - 10:22 PM

Change always shakes up the establishment and creates a lot of angry people who profit from yesterday’s dogma - Jim Watson M.D.
Science advances one death at a time - Max Planck
Middle Eastern mythology has fucked up the world by spreading anti-science sentiment  -  Duke Nukem
When two particles are "entangled" in quantum physics, they communicate instantaneously, implying a connection by some means other than the know universe - someone (not me)

 


Edited by RWhigham, 28 January 2018 - 10:28 PM.


#534 marcobjj

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 05:43 AM

 

 

And it is a fundamental principal of quantum mechanics that an observer perturbs the observation.

The uncertainty principle is quite convenient in the context of conserving simulation resources.

 

sort of how I code my games.  An object is a  wave of potential (or code), until it enters the field of view of a user, when it becomes matter (it's rendered). Perturbing the observation, aka God playing dice, would be the code equivalent of Math.random().  :-D

 

 

Quite.

 

Why waste resources rendering objects nobody can see ...

 

 

Fermi paradox fits here also. Simulation theory would explain why none of Von Newmann's self replicating probes have landed on Earth so far. In "base reality", all variables would be in favor aliens having made contact with human civs. Yet in our reality they haven't because either a) they don't exist in the sim. b) aren't allowed to make contact at this stage in the "game". c) cannot be rendered simultaneously with our civ.


Edited by marcobjj, 13 February 2018 - 05:44 AM.


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#535 mag1

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Posted 24 February 2018 - 02:28 AM

I am impressed!!

What did the greatest economist of the 20th Century have to say about the future of the labor economy?

 

Read the last section from the url below to find out!

Note however, if you do not live in Canada please consult your local copyright laws.

 

https://gutenberg.ca....html#Inflation

 

I think that he nailed it!

Amazing that he could look forward 100 years and be so close on the mark.







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