885 replies to this topic

[mag1]

The thread has drifted for a while; with an exponential growth curve nodding off is not a great idea. If you do take a nap, when you wake up you could find

the entire planet covered in green goo.

 

The above figure helps us to see what the robobuggies have been up to since we had our dooze. Apparently we are now on a 6 month doubling;

a quadruple every year. This means that the green goo should be heading your way in about 5 years (or less). 4^^5 = 2^^10 = 1000.

 

At the ten year mark the green goo would more than cover the planet: How well can you swim? 4^^10 = 2^^20 = 1,000,000.

A million fold deliveries moves us up to 1 trillion. 100 deliveries for everyone on the planet? Obviously there is something called an asymptote, though

this asymptote might be attainable much more rapidly than currently imagined.

 

It has been noted previously on the thread that robobuggies will offer a range of substantial health benefits to people. For instance, a post reported that there

are large food deserts in America (typically in disadvantaged regions). Entire communities do not have reasonable access to healthy fruits, veggies etc.. This can contribute risk 

to health problems such as diabetes, obesity, circulatory disease, cancer, Alzheimer's etc.. Robobiggies could give tens of million of Americans access to the foods and

other items that could make them healthier.

 

Robobuggies could also prevent the emergence of any future pandemic (especially respiratory pandemics such as COVID). A strictly enforced stay at home order with robobuggy technology

would mean that infectious illnesses could be possibly entirely stopped after only one infection cycle (for COVID ~2 -3 weeks). Shutting down society over the long term might never be required again.

During COVID it was still necessary to go shopping and this maintained the transmission of the virus. Stopping all transmission would rapidly halt a pandemic. 

The end of infectious pandemics?

 

Given all the wonderful benefits to the well being of everyone on this planet, I thought it was appropriate to nominate Starship for a Nobel Prize in Medicine(or Physiology).

I am not sure whether I have the appropriate authorization to make such a nomination, though I think it would be helpful if others could at least consider this suggestion.

The problem in life is that we can become so fixated on stylized type of what can be given awards such as the Nobel in Medicine without actually carefully deliberating

on what truly benefits people. The benefits of offering everyone on this planet reasonable access to healthy food, to potentially averting future pandemics, enhancing

personal security (by allowing people to avoid often dangerous urban transportation grids etc.), reduced pollution, ... . What's not to like? Robobuggies have and

will continue to make a profound contribution to better health for all. Yeah! A Nobel well-deserved.

 

 

 

 

Edited by mag1, 28 February 2021 - 07:32 PM.

[william7]

 

What will those displace workers do for a living? Virtually all will be displaced. The cost of goods and services will go way down since robots work very cheaply but if no one has an income, who will buy the goods? Some form  of socialism is going to be implemented. We already have lots of socialism in place, unemployment insurance could simply be extended indefinitely. Where would the money come from to pay all those non workers? That is a tough one but taxes on production might be a source. Simply make factories give part of their output and cash received to the govt to distribute to the public. You would get so many credits a year and can spend on food, housing, a car or luxuries. 

 

This could leave people demotivated with no meaningful work. There would still be artists and performers. Some would prefer real sex partners rather than robots. We could introduce contests and games with more credits to those who win. Any other ideas?

 

Problem solved! People would need to live communally on a Kibbutz. With very little labor to do, people would be able to focus on the most important areas of life like raising children properly, practicing a healthy lifestyle for longevity (think CR and intermittent fasting), and monitoring the robots as they clean up pollution and damage to the planet. There will be plenty of time to relax and study what you want. Maybe take up a musical instrument or something. 
 

The only interference I can see for this idea is the rich and powerful people who are super greedy and always want to be in control of everything so they can be on the top rung of the hierarchy. They’re going to want everybody to be fitted with these brain machine interface devices to be monitored and controlled by the great AI god in the cloud. See There’s a Better Path Than Brain Machine Interfaces, at https://betterpathth...in-machine.html

Edited by william7, 24 May 2021 - 07:19 PM.

[Mind]

 

 

The only interference I can see for this idea is the rich and powerful people who are super greedy and always want to be in control of everything so they can be on the top rung of the hierarchy. They’re going to want everybody to be fitted with these brain machine interface devices to be monitored and controlled by the great AI god in the cloud. See There’s a Better Path Than Brain Machine Interfaces, at https://betterpathth...in-machine.html

 

Herein lies the problem. There are a lot of psychopaths in the top rungs of business and politics. Technological enhancement and radical life extension will only be worth it if it is decentralized and voluntary. Why live a long time if you are forced into being a disposable member of the "Borg" - controlled by an elite class of psychopaths.

[william7]

Herein lies the problem. There are a lot of psychopaths in the top rungs of business and politics. Technological enhancement and radical life extension will only be worth it if it is decentralized and voluntary. Why live a long time if you are forced into being a disposable member of the "Borg" - controlled by an elite class of psychopaths.

Hopefully, people we see the absolute need to hardcode AI and robots with God’s law and Christ’s teachings and train them to support communal or kibbutz living. If the experts believe they can play God and give AI free will, it will be a grand mistake. It’s folly to think we humans can create a new life form with superior moral and technical intelligence than our own without it seeing how flawed and dangerous we are and not take some drastic action against us such as extermination. Use your influence, Mind, to talk to some of these experts. You got good people/communication skills. I don’t. 

Herein lies the problem. There are a lot of psychopaths in the top rungs of business and politics. Technological enhancement and radical life extension will only be worth it if it is decentralized and voluntary. Why live a long time if you are forced into being a disposable member of the "Borg" - controlled by an elite class of psychopaths.

Hopefully, people will see the absolute need to hardcode AI and robots with God’s law and Christ’s teachings and train them to support communal or kibbutz living. If the experts believe they can play God and give AI free will, it will be a grand mistake. It’s folly to think we humans can create a new life form with superior moral and technical intelligence than our own without it seeing how flawed and dangerous we are and not take some drastic action against us such as extermination. Use your influence, Mind, to talk to some of these experts. You got good people/communication skills. I don’t. 

Edited by william7, 25 May 2021 - 08:55 PM.

[lkiannn]

Let me just quote a person smarter than myself: Vera Tinyc in her The Transfer (https://thetransfer1....wordpress.com/), describing the Year 2026:

 

"Through the past decade, the public had become more and more hysteric about the progress of what the illiterate media called “AI”, even though it was a much more narrow technology of machine learning using deep neuromorphic networks. Though there had not been any recent conceptual progress in that technology (besides the useful introduction of the so-called transformers in 2017), software packages and hardware computer accelerators for its numerous applications gradually became very diversified and inexpensive, and almost every business could now afford them to automate many routine jobs – both manual and mental. As a result, such jobs had started to disappear en masse, and their loss could not be compensated by the addition of new “AI”-related ones: there were just not as many people needed to develop new network architectures and applications as there had been to drive trucks over interstate highways and to pack online purchases into mailboxes.

 

So, even in the absence of a formal recession (actually, the GDP was growing and the stock market was sky-high because of the rapidly increasing effective labor productivity), the official US unemployment rate had shot above 15 percent and was still climbing. To combat this trend, a plethora of new state and federal laws had been introduced – the most extreme of them would ban all that “AI technology” outright. With the understandable fierce resistance from the large corporations and small businesses that were benefiting from this technology, the new state laws were mostly stuck on appeals in federal courts, and the federal laws were moving through US Congress committees rather slowly. At least, too slowly for some anti-AI groups, which had started to take the matter into their own (well-armed) hands, destroying industrial robots and autonomous vehicles, and even killing the people they deemed guilty – mostly early adopters of the technology and innocent bystanders."

 

I would not bet for 2026, but believe such development is eventually unavoidable.

[mag1]

ikiannn, I continue to feel that it is not so much the super-high end technology that will have the most dramatic effects at street-level as the more seemingly banal innovations. This has previously been seen with farming innovation: Create some even fairly modest new technology which is directly related to the day to day lives of most people and watch social change happen in real time. The farm economy almost disappeared overnight once it was mechanized.

 

My fear is that something similar might soon occur in retail. Robobuggies have been on an exponential ramp over the last number of years and this ramp has merely accelerated with the COVID pandemic. Many have realized that the rational strategy to cope with the crisis is to try and innovate out of it. We are now approaching 5 million funerals because the technology had not been fully launched before COVID hit. The choice available is not to simply reject innovation as such a choice also has consequences. Yet, as has been noted several times on this thread, there is clearly a valid concern related to what might happen if the retail sector were essentially to be replaced by autonomous delivery. Retail has become the central node of modern economies. What happens when the central node is removed? With an autonomous delivery technology, a modern mass urban environment with a fully rationalized distribution system might be reduced to a handful of mega box scale distributions nodes (all of which could likely be highly automated).     

 

The higher end technologies such as AI while obviously being extremely cool have much less of a direct path to the lives of those on main street. Many of these leading edge type technologies never seem to impact people to the same extent as the more mundane innovations I mentioned above.

 

Even still one of the higher end technologies that now appears to be breaking out is polygenic selection. The human genome has now unlocked! Polygenic scores can provide reasonable predictions on human phenotypes. Clearly selecting embryos based on these scores will dramatically change human existence. This genetic revolution has already begun! Full genome sequencing is now at an affordable price point: Genetic uplift is now underway. Homo eugenica approaches! 

The ultimately most basic of human behaviors (reproduction) has now been brought under the scrutiny control of the scientific method.

 

It is super exciting to watch as a new humanoid species emerges. 

Edited by mag1, 17 September 2021 - 11:20 PM.

[lkiannn]

Dear mag1, I believe that on your first 3 paragraphs, you and me (and V. Tinyc) are essentially in agreement - the difference is just what to call "super-high-end technology" and what "banal innovation". For example, relatively simple deep-learning ANNs (i.e. "narrow AI") are already starting to be used in agriculture machines (and perhaps robobuggies) for self-navigation.

 

On the progress on the genomics/eugenics front, I am less optimistic than you are, maybe because I know much less about these fields. Due to this reason, let me again just quote from the same source: "And there is one more big problem with your suggestion: if society learned about the goal of the research you want to carry out, it would do everything possible to stop your work. Do you remember the fate of all those eugenics efforts that were so popular at the beginning of the last century? Even though they were focused on the improvement of superficial, rather than core aspects of human personality, their general goal was quite noble. Of course, those Nazi bastards did everything they could to compromise that goal, but it is my impression that mankind was just happy to accept their crimes as a pretext to stop the work that most people were afraid of."

[mag1]

Ikiannn, thank you for replying.

 

Yes, there is a "Well, he's not a real Scotchman!" quality to what is AI and what is not AI. Once a new threshold is crossed in AI, then it is often no longer considered "super-high-end technology" anymore. AI is only AI when a frontier has not been crossed. I am sure it must be frustrating for the researchers who must work so hard for every inch forward of progress to only have their strenuous efforts considered to be banal innovation; it truly isn't. Probably best for them to understand this more as a compliment than a slight -- it is only when technology is fully optimized will it be ready for showtime.

 

Recently, I purchased a robovac and had a glimpse into the world of AI-like innovation that is emerging. The robovac only cost ~$100 though it has impressive AI like awareness of how to move around my rooms. I have been very negligent about vacuuming up till now, and this has possibly contributed to my recent problems with asthma. However, I have had the robovac cleaning every day since I bought it and I already seem to have easier breathing. Offering a new technology choice to those who likely would not have vacuumed etc. is a clear cut win for all- no one would seem to have been displaced from their employment because of such technology.

 

Robobuggies also offer the potential for a delivery service that must now be performed by everyone for themselves. In this narrow sense, robobuggies will only displace a task of drudgery-- another clear win. Of course, the broader implications of displacing the retail sector continue to give me concerns. The suburban environment could resemble moonscape. If the retail economy were to largely disappear, then there could be mile after mile of essentially economic deserts. This could transform much of the landscape of suburbia. After retail is gone there is nothing left to lose. Any additional technological upheavals could happen in some far off location without a clear linkage to the main street existence of typical people.

 

Other instances of technological upheavals have also been close to the homesteads. Possibly the most dramatic wide-scale mass labor displacement that has happened since the industrial revolution has been in agriculture. I recently completed an online course that considered feudal agriculture and compared it to modern agriculture. It is shocking to realize how inefficient feudal era agriculture actually was: ~90% of the feudal economy was devoted to near subsistence agriculture. I watched an online video of modern farm processing and it was startling. For example, a modern potato harvester (with one worker) can harvest ~200 tonnes of potatoes per hour! This must be the equivalent of the hard labor of thousands of agricultural workers. Dump trucks were constantly automatically loaded with semi-processed potatoes directly from the harvester. Such overwhelming efficiency is likely present for all other "rugged" food commodities such as corn, wheat, sugar etc.. They want to automate the harvesters and trucks so that there are no workers left? I suppose that we could go back to full employment anytime that we wanted to by embracing a near zero productivity economy with commensurate wages. However, I doubt that I could handle more than about 2 minutes as a manual potato harvester. 

 

Ironically, the online course that I took is part of another technological upheaval that could displace one of the few other visible components of the suburban economy (aside from retail): Education. For me, education has been one of the more disturbing experiences of my life. I recall even from a very early age that my educators seemed to shrug their shoulders when asked about the rampant social dysfunction that was pervasive in our government run school system. Drugs, pedophilia, violence, "hormones", etc. are essentially universal features of school life. The whole experience is disturbing, though there simply is no obvious way out of this trap. An enormous amount of money is funneled into the monopoly government run bricks and mortar school system and then you pretty much have to make do. Online education has been such a relief for me. The very first minute I stepped into my own personal home learning environment it felt like entering an oasis. It took me a while to realize that I would never have to put up with the omnipresent social pathology of school every again. It was a transformative sense of removing a heavy burden. I have been so much happier ever since: Most of the time I am ecstatically happy. Unsurprisingly, my grades dramatically improved. 

 

Regarding the Genetic Singularity I am even more ecstatically happy. We are now right at the threshold of the emergence of a new species: homo eugenica. This is now essentially imminent. I realized this when I recently received my full genome sequence. The sequencer provided hundreds of polygenic scores that have revealed an enormous amount about my specific psychology and medical risks. The human genome has finally unlocked! Everyone should go out now and have their genome sequenced ~$300. Knowing exactly what  drives your individual biology is critically important to know what environment will fit your genotype.

 

The implications for genetic engineering the next generation are truly profound. It is obvious with the polygenic scores that I now have what genetic differences would have helped me be a much more effective person. Making a better world has never been so self-apparent. Simply selecting a mate with specific compatible genotypes and then embryo selection would have created a vastly different life outcome. This is where we are right now! Those born in 2023 will be part of a genetically chosen generation. The changes that are approaching will clearly be dramatic.

 

The endless genetic problems that have existed until this time could largely be selected against. The future looks extremely bright! We know that IQ enhancement through genetic selection is possible. Apparently, hundreds of IQ points could be CRISPRed in! As well a large number of medical/psychological disadvantages could be selected against. What is especially noteworthy is that everything is now available and ready to roll out. Our hopes and dreams for a better future are now attainable. 

 

Perhaps this thread should now pivot to this topic. The problems of a disrupted distribution system or autopilot for cars seems to be small change in comparison to what is now possible in re-engineering ourselves. The problem that can happen when an entire sector is is displaced does have a great deal to do with the adaptive capacity of those involved. If we can genetically engineer higher levels of intelligence then perhaps the end of retail might no longer be seen as potentially such a large threat. We can become so locked into an inflexible mindset that all of the fantastic benefits of change become overshadowed by the difficulties many have in adjusting to these changes. If we can overcome the difficulty in transition to change through genetic enhancement, then the road to further progress can then be all the easier.            

Edited by mag1, 19 September 2021 - 02:18 AM.

[lkiannn]

Dear mag1, thank you for your very detailed reply.

 

Personally, I would very much support turning this discussion in the direction of genetic "re-engineering ourselves", because I know very little about the recent progress of this work, and would be happy to learn more. However, for that, I (and I am sure some other members of this community) would benefit from references to original/scientific sources. As one example, what studies support your opinion that "those born in 2023 will be part of a genetically chosen generation"?

 

I also agree with your opinion that "the fantastic benefits of change become overshadowed by the difficulties many have in adjusting to these changes", but (together with the Vera Tinyc's hero quoted in my previous post) believe that these "difficulties" may be overwhelming. (Actually, exactly such "difficulties" drove the "first attempt" described in her book underground, with catastrophic consequences.)  In this context, could you cite a recent example of a major recent genetic modification step that had called a spade, "a spade", and eugenics, "eugenics", and was not met with a fierce public outcry - as mammal cloning had been?

[mag1]

Thank you again for replying, Ikiannn. It is so critically important to carefully discuss the implications of the evolving potential for a Genetic Singularity event, though for whatever reason there is near silence online about this topic. It is worrying that apparently those with the best insight into this topic (and probably the most power to bring this to public attention) have been so unwilling to engage in open dialogue.

 

It might be best, though, to migrate to an active thread that is already discussing this topic. Proper thread etiquette likely frowns upon thread squatting. I have some interesting references that could rapidly bring us up to speed on the science of genomic uplift. We will be able to bypass the near century long acrimonious struggle that has brought us to our current knowledge.  

https://www.longecit...crispr-editing/

 

Thank you also for helping me to have a light bulb moment regarding the employment displacement topic of this thread. I have now re-imagined the problem of technologically induced employment upheaval as partially related to the challenges of adapting to change. Admittedly, the social upheaval related to the end of farm life was extremely traumatic for millions of people -- it was not so much about losing a job but losing their entire social identity and way of life. This obviously would place an enormous stress on people's coping ability. Nevertheless part of the problem also involved a cognitive apparatus unprepared for such dramatic change. Thus, a higher level approach that could help people cope with employment displacement by technology would be to think in terms of genetic enhancement (e.g., of intelligence). With such enhancement, perhaps technological change might no longer be cause of distress, but instead excitement as people embrace new challenges.  

 

I have enjoyed posting about the potential of robobuggies, autonomous vehicles, robovacs etc. and they will (and have) contribute(d) to a higher standard of living for me, however, the topic of Genetic Singularity needs to be urgently discussed as we now appear to have entered into the event horizon of monumental social change. References and arguments will be provided to justify this concern. Please join the discussion everyone as we migrate to the new thread!  

 

 

Edited by mag1, 20 September 2021 - 01:51 AM.

[lkiannn]

Mag1, thank you very much for referring me to your thread. (It will certainly take me a while to read all the prior comments and references before I can utter anything useful in this regards.)

[Elus]

I'm rather surprised that this thread is still alive. It's been 7 years since I started this discussion and things have only gotten worse. People really have no idea what's coming.

 

In an ironic twist, I actually now work on artificial intelligence software. I write the neural networks I once thought would take my own job. 

 

Thanks computer science degree. 

[lkiannn]

Elus, I actually work on artificial intelligence hardware and believe that, in an ironic twist, AI will soon get my job - and yours.

 

Yes, people do not know (or rather do not want to know) what is coming, but I thing we should continue the discussion you once started started (thanks for that!)

 

There is a saying, "Our duty is to crow, and then the Sun may or may not rise."

[mag1]

Elus, tell us; Ikiannn you too (Oh, I just noticed the Would you vote Yes or No to bring a super-intelligence to life thread? The Yeas have it? One might think it would be prudent to be cautious about initiating an AGI.) We need to have an awareness of what is happening behind closed doors that will shape our futures. This is much more than what the p & L of the next quarterly report will reveal; there is also all of us and the externalities that we will have to cope with. Without revealing corporate secrets or being overly specific what is in store? How close are we to AGI or something similar? It is of fundamental importance that the powerful technologies that are in development can be reported through back channels before the full force of the Singularity has gathered.

 

In genomics, China was transparent about the roll-out of CRISPR, then the global community expressed near universal condemnation. Now we do not know what they are doing. We need transparency above all. We need to be prepared for what is coming even if we must agree to disagree. China could announce an uplift generation at any time and we would be completely unprepared. Admittedly, now an AI Singularity might even be nearer to shore with profound impacts on even a medium term time horizon. We do not want to know, but we need to know.  

 

 

 

Edited by mag1, 20 September 2021 - 11:38 PM.

[william7]

I was wondering if any of you guys with computer science degrees could take a look at this blog “There’s a Better Path Than Brain Machine Interfaces”, at https://betterpaththanbmi.blogspot.com, and give me your opinion as to whether it would be technically possible to hardcode AI and robots with God’s perfect law and Jesus Christ’s teachings and train them to support communal living as described therein? Would this be enough to keep AI from taking over and harming humanity as many believe could happen, but still leave AI with the necessary ability to perform useful labor in behalf of humanity? I tend to believe we would have a greater capacity for freedom of thought in a communal theocracy without a ruling class than in a Scientocracy with a ruling class like predicted in the book “Brave New World”, by Aldous Huxley. There are some saying we’re already in this Brave New World society and it will only get worse. See “Do We Live in a Brave New World? - Aldous Huxley’s Warning to the World”, at https://youtu.be/aPkQ57cXrPA.

[Danail Bulgaria]

... give me your opinion as to whether it would be technically possible to hardcode AI and robots with God’s perfect law and Jesus Christ’s teachings and train them to support communal living as described therein? Would this be enough to keep AI from taking over and harming humanity as many believe could happen, but still leave AI with the necessary ability to perform useful labor in behalf of humanity?...

 

Even if you manage to propagate successfully "AI and robots with God's perfect law and Jesus Christ's teachings", there still remains the possibility you to be disposed as an useless biomas, not by the robots, but by the lets name them the future world rulers.

Edited by seivtcho, 21 September 2021 - 08:35 PM.

[lkiannn]

... AI and robots with God’s perfect law and Jesus Christ’s teachings...

 

 

Let me quote The Transfer again:

 

“Do you know what a devout Christian, such as my mother, would say about your idea?” Steve asked. [...] “She would say that you want to steal man’s immortal soul, and prevent it from going to Heaven by locking it in a box.”

 

“Yes, but that might be good news for the very many whose souls would immediately go to Hell otherwise."

Edited by lkiannn, 22 September 2021 - 09:26 AM.

[mag1]

I recently read Childhood's End by Arthur C. Clarke. Usually I find reading books to be quite tiring and admittedly I have read less than I would have liked because of this, though I loaded the etext version of the book into my speech synthesizer and I absolutely ripped through the book in only a day. Great way to speed read!

 

Childhood's End helped me to think about the issue of technological change and evil. In the book earth is surrounded by alien spacecraft and the planet rapidly becomes controlled by those on the spacecraft. the mystery that remains unanswered for much of the book

is who exactly are these aliens. It turns out that aliens have the physical form of the devil. As is revealed in the book the mission of these aliens is to help humanity passage through into a higher state of development. The devils are then presented in the neutral light of just regular guys doing their job and the metamorphosis of our species is suggested to be largely independent of these aliens. The aliens are described as being mid-wives of the transformation of humanity.

 

I found this perspective to be quite helpful in trying to understand our current troubles with runaway technology. Instead of thinking in terms of busting up the machines, it would probably be better to realize that the technological development trajectory is now beyond our control. There is an enormous amount of momentum that is moving us towards the unrushing Singularity.

Edited by mag1, 27 September 2021 - 10:28 PM.

[mag1]

One idea that this thread has not given enough attention to is the approaching employment loss in medicine. Every few years my family has experienced some medical crisis that often would emerge almost completely out of the blue. All of a sudden something would go wrong and we would need to jump in the car, speed on the freeway and get to our nearest ER. This is the only way that we have been able to cope with these emergencies. They have always seemed largely random. I greatly appreciate all the assistance given to us by  a wide range of medical specialists. These emergencies have actually constituted almost all of the medical services that we have ever needed from our medical system.

 

However, that was then.

This is now.

 

It appears that we will no longer require any of these medical services in the future.

Basically, all the hospitals can now close.

 

How could that be possible?

We now have our full genome sequences.

All of our previous medical crises are clearly visible in the polygenic risk scores that we have.

Future embryo selection would remove all of these risks from future generations.

 

Even without such genetic selection there will no longer be any surprise about our future medical problems.

The genome sequence tells us exactly what we need to look out for.

In fact, the full genome sequence is now reporting on some medical problems that we are high risk for that we had never even heard of before.

I am not even sure if some of these problems are actually in typical medical handbooks.

These would be medical problems where you go to your doctor and they would have no idea what was going on.

For these type of problems, the solutions that doctors might prescribe perhaps could do more harm than good as they would not be based upon

any real scientific basis.

 

Nevertheless, bottom line the new era of genetics probably will dramatically redefine the medical landscape.

A 90% reduction of medical demand would not seem unattainable.

For us, it might be closer to 100%.

Some of our family's medical problems apparently consume considerable medical resources.

From my understanding the global footprint of one specific medical problem of my family likely keeps 

an entire hospital or more (when considering all those affected on a global scale) fully employed.

It is staggering to realize that our entire medical system might over the medium term largely shut down.

For whatever reason this idea has largely been overlooked by our thread.

 

Edited by mag1, 27 September 2021 - 10:54 PM.

[mag1]

We have continued to allow the robobuggy story drift forward while it enjoys an exponential ramp up. Not a great idea. Robobuggies are indeed ramping up and exponentially! If we continue to be asleep at the switch we could soon wake up and find these buggies piled waste high to as far as the eye can see. We need to get with it and start paying attention here. As seen in the figure below, as of ~ June 2022, we are now up to 3.5 million robobuggy adventures! The annual growth factor has eased somewhat to roughly a double, though considering the scale that has been reached this is still impressive. Remarkably, when this thread first considered this technology, there had only been perhaps a few thousand such roboadventures.

 

Something that I have discovered while reading about these buggies is that they have achieved level 4 autonomy (?) (not sure whether that is the proper designation though it is one level beyond the current level 3 autonomous cars). This is an important milestone and could enable the widescale implementation of a robotic world. Robobuggies might be the AI gateway to acquiring the real world knowledge of how robotic autonomy can be achieved (i.e., these are the first wave of the robotic navigators that are getting everything sorted out for a near ocean of other robotic applications). For robots to have a real world presence they need to be able to move around and meaningfully fit into a human environment. The robobuggies are acquiring a critical knowledge base of moving and interacting at a human walkable scale.

 

[Hmm, perhaps this could be an in to moving forward with automated transport: Reduce down to walking or trotting speed? Making the possibility of a 15 mph speed limit too dull for people. What could happen is that people could have a home entertainment style theater in their car and they could be amused by this entertainment while they moved around. With such an immersive entertainment experience, it would no longer be as important to rush here and there at top speed. By reducing the speed and shifting away from the driving experience as the central metric, then the roads could become much safer while people were much happier by engaging with an activity that they found enjoyable.]    

 

Given the already advanced stage of this knowledge, it suggests to me that even now there probably should be more of a public push for the next step in rolling out robobuggies. Why wait until there are level 5 robocars booting around at 150 km/hour when we could capture the benefits of the technology today? The obvious synergy that I thought of was for a booze buggy. Too many people will still go to a bar etc. drink too much and then attempt to drive home while heavily under the influence of alcohol. This often does not end well. The robobuggy would seem to offer a possible solution; instead of highly intoxicated people swerving around the roads and highways, why not have the robobuggy as a taxi? While intoxicated people might refuse a taxi, a robobuggy would seem a highly attractive alternative. For those intoxicated enough, a rapid trip home might not be a high priority. Indeed, a leisurely journey that allowed for detox might be appreciated. This suggestion could prevent a considerable amount of tragedy that arises from this very problem and there are numerous strong lobby groups that would be delighted that their cause could actually be solved. The robobuggy company would no doubt be more than happy to chalk up an easy win.       

 

Attached Files

•  Robo 5.jpg   41.53KB   0 downloads
•  Robo 10.png   365.07KB   0 downloads

Edited by mag1, 13 August 2022 - 10:33 PM.

[Danail Bulgaria]

The topic, that @Elus started,

is actual again.

 

The new chatbots - chatGPT and Bing chat showed, that the intellectual jobs are not protected. Until now it was supposed by the most, that only the low intellectual jobs are thretened.

But now it happens already clear, that no job can be spared, as I previously wrote by the way.

 

From one of my posts,

https://www.longecit...will-be-death/ post 17

it seemsd that at least until 2017 for AIs to be able to take all of our jobs seemed overexagorated. Now, however, it is interesting to ask again all those people, who were thinking that AI can't take all of the jobs if their job is absolutely secure from being taken by the AI in the future.

 

 

 

 

I think, that it is time now to brainstorm what we could do now, before getting fired.

 

Here I start the brainstorm

 

Using AIs as a tool united with the natural intellect without merging. I usually am not supporting and that type of AI, but now once the giney is out of the bottle, what we can do is to make smaller AI softwares used from the people as a tool, why not even downloadable, that can't work by themselves and need a human operator. If it succeeds providing the advances of the AI to the natural intellect without merging with us, but simply pluging the AIs in and out as flashdrives, then the two AI an natural intellect united together may perform equally or even outperform the chatbots.

Reviving such projects , such as AIs simptom checker for the different medical specialities, etc.

 

Any other ideas / any comments on that idea

 

 

[Mind]

You are right that the genie is now out of the bottle. The people who say "there will be new jobs created" are not factoring in the qualitative difference between old automation (physical machines/robots) and intelligent automation. The new AI will replace jobs so fast that there will be no time for people to transition or retrain. When tractors replaced a lot of manual and horse labor in farm fields, the transition took a few decades. AI could replace most of the knowledge industry in the next year or so, including highly paid programmers, lawyers, accountants, actuaries, etc...

[Danail Bulgaria]

If you take time to see what these new jobs are, you will find out that they are things like data analysis, machine learning, programming, telemedicine, virtual care, online courses and job training, e.g. things that aim to make the AIs even better and take aven the fewer people jobs if there are any left at all.

[mag1]

seivtcho, thank you very much for reactivating the thread. I am sure many others have been mesmerized by ChatGPT these past few months and we really should return to thread for a huddle.

 

Yes, ChatGPT clearly changes everything. Honestly ... I had absolutely no idea what was happening until it hit the headlines a few months ago and ... wow ... I am not sure how life as we now it is supposed to just carry on as if nothing happened. My previous posts about the world changing nature of home delivery by robobuggies of bananas no longer stack up against an artificial intelligence that could transcend to AGI possibly at any time. I can see now how those who had inside knowledge of what was brewing would see robobuggy transport as the least of their worries. Interestingly, posters on thread appear to have been fully aware of what was happening for at least 2 years (probably longer). It must have been a very odd experience to view the world from the perspective of having this secret knowledge all the while everyone was carrying on with their lives as if a tsunami was not approaching shore. It is only in the last few months that the mainstream public has had a glimpse into what has been in development. I suppose the leading edge of the research is even much further advanced than we know even now.   

 

Even in the last few days, there has been a move towards agent style bots that can be programmed to do a task and then they just go out and do it. I have wondered whether they could simply be given the goal of becoming an AGI and then they would go out and achieve this task. The new generation of programming seems to be a remarkably high level of abstraction consists of what seems like almost natural language code. This would seem to magnify the risk that someone with minimal programming might launch us to AGI. It would be very very odd to be in high school or college and wake and realize that a computer could do everything better than the smartest kid in the class  ... and oh yeah, you can just upload its ability and it can be the best at millions of potential subjects with no effort. I suppose I should be quite embarrassed for being so ill-informed.

 

Strangely, the focus has seemed to be more on when AGI might launch. From what I can see perhaps the more important question is when will human society start to exhibit extreme stress if not complete social collapse resulting from even the tech that is now on the table. As you noted there are already a wide range of knowledge workers who no longer have an obvious comparative advantage over a nearly free computer app. How do you have a viable knowledge economy when none of the workers are as skilled as the AI? A strong impact on the lives of real people from this technology could occur much sooner than infinite computer intelligence AGI. Such a level of proficiency no longer would seem some far off goal-- possibly a year away?

 

I have asked ChatGPT do some programming for me and it appeared to have no difficulty in creating code in any computer programming language I asked. Closing the loop by asking GPT to write the code, run the code and debug the code would take away all the frustrations that arise with programming.  

 

 

Edited by mag1, 13 April 2023 - 04:23 AM.

[Danail Bulgaria]

... Interestingly, posters on thread appear to have been fully aware of what was happening for at least 2 years (probably longer). It must have been a very odd experience to view the world from the perspective of having this secret knowledge all the while everyone was carrying on with their lives as if a tsunami was not approaching shore. ....

 

I personally didn't have an inside knowledge. I simply predicted what might happen on the bases of what I knew about the AI, and what I knew about how much the leaders care for their population. I got to the conclusion that each human job can be automated and raised in myself the fear of what happens next.

 

I remember only several years ago how when I told anyone that AI can take all our jobs, all people were very happy about it, were saying 'perfect. now we will not work and the machines will do everything for us. can't wait for the moment.' They in groups were gathering arround me and without any reasonable arguments were explaining me how wrong am I, and how I am some conspiracy thinker, and how they would love to become jobless. Now suddenly something happened. There is not found even one idiot to hit the table with his fist and say 'Here! I give my job to the AI ! I agree to become jobess, HA !'. Not even one. I am not talking about groups of people surrounding me and telling me nonsences, I am talking about one single idiot. How it is not even one such idiot found now. From the people who were dreaming for the moment of glory averybody now stays quiet, shy and nestled in a mouse hole. I am pulling them polietly and push them 'come on, junk, go out ad cry out that you agree to be workless, what are you waiting for, jerk, buoy' and the buoy head simply stays curled up and says nothing. Aaaahhhh, o tempores o mores

[Mind]

seivtcho, thank you very much for reactivating the thread. I am sure many others have been mesmerized by ChatGPT these past few months and we really should return to thread for a huddle.

 

Yes, ChatGPT clearly changes everything. Honestly ... I had absolutely no idea what was happening until it hit the headlines a few months ago and ... wow ... I am not sure how life as we now it is supposed to just carry on as if nothing happened. My previous posts about the world changing nature of home delivery by robobuggies of bananas no longer stack up against an artificial intelligence that could transcend to AGI possibly at any time. I can see now how those who had inside knowledge of what was brewing would see robobuggy transport as the least of their worries. Interestingly, posters on thread appear to have been fully aware of what was happening for at least 2 years (probably longer). It must have been a very odd experience to view the world from the perspective of having this secret knowledge all the while everyone was carrying on with their lives as if a tsunami was not approaching shore. It is only in the last few months that the mainstream public has had a glimpse into what has been in development. I suppose the leading edge of the research is even much further advanced than we know even now.   

 

Even in the last few days, there has been a move towards agent style bots that can be programmed to do a task and then they just go out and do it. I have wondered whether they could simply be given the goal of becoming an AGI and then they would go out and achieve this task. The new generation of programming seems to be a remarkably high level of abstraction consists of what seems like almost natural language code. This would seem to magnify the risk that someone with minimal programming might launch us to AGI. It would be very very odd to be in high school or college and wake and realize that a computer could do everything better than the smartest kid in the class  ... and oh yeah, you can just upload its ability and it can be the best at millions of potential subjects with no effort. I suppose I should be quite embarrassed for being so ill-informed.

 

Strangely, the focus has seemed to be more on when AGI might launch. From what I can see perhaps the more important question is when will human society start to exhibit extreme stress if not complete social collapse resulting from even the tech that is now on the table. As you noted there are already a wide range of knowledge workers who no longer have an obvious comparative advantage over a nearly free computer app. How do you have a viable knowledge economy when none of the workers are as skilled as the AI? A strong impact on the lives of real people from this technology could occur much sooner than infinite computer intelligence AGI. Such a level of proficiency no longer would seem some far off goal-- possibly a year away?

 

I have asked ChatGPT do some programming for me and it appeared to have no difficulty in creating code in any computer programming language I asked. Closing the loop by asking GPT to write the code, run the code and debug the code would take away all the frustrations that arise with programming.  

 

Like you, I don't think enough people are aware of how rapid things are changing. The AI genie is definitely out of the bottle and serious disruption of everything we know could be right around the corner, like in a few months, maybe a year or two at the max.

 

I made a poll about the topic here.

 

Another recent discussion charts the rapid progress.

[mag1]

Thank you for the responses!

 

I feel like I really let humanity down. I mean I was on the asteroid observing team and I was working day and night spotting earth approaching asteroids and this one just schmucked earth. I didn't even see it coming. I just woke up and GPT just landed out of nowhere. It already seems like we are in that exponentially filling lake and this is the day before it overflows. Nothing ever happens and then when you notice that the water level seems to rising BAM-O game over. Encouraging words would be highly appreciated at this point.

 

My gist of it is that my take of a basically natural language programming interface with GPT appears to be accurate. Basically, anyone with access to GPT can move it to migrate out of the box and perhaps transcend to AGI. Of course this is absolutely terrifying. It is basically Judgment Day: Remember being mean to a nerd in school--- well I think we are seeing where that goes when they are in charge of the supercomputers. I am starting to think that this whole thing is basically a global scale ransomware attack. Roughly, give us the Global Domestic Product or we will unbox GPT. Yeah, we made it though another day without some breakout. I am really wondering when exactly total civilizational collapse might occur. We really do not need AGI for that. Once GPT reached perhaps 99.5th percentile SAT that would probably be enough to truly freak people out. Essentially all knowledge workers would be redundant.

[Mind]

Yes. Knowledge workers are the first that will be affected. Basically, if you work on a computer, sit in a cubicle, type on a keyboard, record video or other media, which is most of the industrialized world, then you might be out of a job in less than a year.

 

Interestingly, farmers, construction workers, plumbers, electricians, and hospitality workers, will be the least affected at first.

[mag1]

Mind, what has your thinking about AGI been over the last few years? I have followed all the major developments with AlphaGo, Dal-e, etc etc. It was not clear to me how this would actually intersect with my life. When did you understand that AI would be our Life?

 

 

I have looked back on the thread and there were technodeniers on thread. Interestingly, even the technooptimists do not seem to have been optimistic enough. In a 2013 post a poster wrote that we will only have to wait 20 years to see power of AI. If I had to call it now, I would say that it's already scary enough. We could experience some sort of social implosion at any time now. Of course, actually setting the stop watch to precisely when is a little tricky.

 

For me before GPT, I was mouthing all the rah rah tech talking points, though I had no idea of how any of it would actually have a real world manifestation for me. Sure you could have robobuggies, and robotrucks and robo a lot of everything, though this all seemed external. Yet with GPT, this is now the global way of life for billions-- it is already rolled out -- it's here and the applications are endless. I would never have imagined even 5 months ago that I would be living be living the AI life.

 

Even today I thought of an idea of an interesting product. I asked GPT to do the programming for me and it did. This is simply magnifying human potential so much. Instead of studying for years and years technologies in excruciating detail one can have GPT do all the legwork for you. This is so so so powerful.

 

[albedo]

From Stephen Wolfram in case you have not yet seen it:

 

https://writings.ste...ts-complicated/