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Global Demographic Collapse has Arrived!

total fertility rate demography singularity conflict

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101 replies to this topic

#61 Keizo

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Posted 03 December 2017 - 01:50 AM

One way to increase birth-rates, and this might be tried if things go far enough, is to ban contraceptives. More specifically the most convenient and physical forms of them such as condoms and birth control pills. I would guess that this would in fact increase birth rates quite a lot, but not to extreme levels necessarily.  As far as financial carrots to make (intelligent) people have more children that if I recall didn't prove effective in the past. Fear I am sure is a much better motivator, fear of spending time in prison or getting a big fat tax for not meeting the state-required number of pregnancies. Although these suggestions are getting a bit ridiculous or at least unrealistic, and I do think and hope that there are quite enough intelligent people that do want and will have children on their own accord.


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#62 mag1

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Posted 03 December 2017 - 08:47 PM

It might take a while, though we really need to think of demographic collapse as the solution and not the problem.

Crowd wisdom has brought us to this state; trying to find ways to manipulate it could be very counter-productive.

 

The Asian perspective of demographic decline has shown considerable wisdom. It speaks to a meditative quality of

accepting what is and allowing one's mind to contemplate and adjust to reality as it exists; not adjusting reality to

fit what the mind wants to exist.

 

I have found contemplating this point of view helpful.

Life is not good nor bad.

Life is as it is.

Accepting objective reality as it exists is adaptive and it shows a measure of maturity.

 

 

Yet, the Western perspective has been less adaptive. Instead of accepting reality as it is and letting our minds adjust,

we have adjusted reality to fit our mind's sense of reality. Basically this approach avoids having to think. Even after going

through a large demographic shift mass immigration has largely not changed reality at all. After a generation immigrants 

to Western nations typically adopt a low fertility lifestyle, so an endless influx of new migrants becomes necessary.

However, as can be seen in the above Figure, we have reached the point where there will be no surplus fertility in 

any nation outside of Sub-Saharan Africa. Western nations might soon require their citizens to adjust their internal

equilibria as the option to distort external reality might no longer available.

 

The great benefit will be that the highly socially disruptive mass immigration window will be closed and Western

nations will be able to restore the sense of community that has been constantly eroded for the last many decades.


Edited by mag1, 03 December 2017 - 09:00 PM.


#63 mag1

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Posted 09 January 2018 - 12:47 AM

I am so happy that we have now rolled into a New Year and the approaching severe demographic is even closer.

We are day by day and year by year inexorably moving to a world in which conflict is essentially impossible.

 

Last year, Syria, one of the only highish fertility nations finally felt compelled to go to the peace table. 

It is more than a little surprising to me that they had not been induced to do so even sooner.

With millions of its citizens fleeing, ongoing causalities and a fertility rate that was nearing replacement levels and

falling, no other realistic option was open to them. This is one of the best examples of a conflict that was resolved 

due to demographic forces.

 

The demographic force on the few remaining high fertility (and concurrently conflict) nations will now escalate.

It is very comforting to know that we are now on autopilot to a better more peaceful world.

 

Of course, the one large remaining region is Sub-Saharan Africa. It will take almost to the end of this century for

the same demographic circumstances to emerge there. The exponential growth in their population and the ongoing

decline everywhere else, will probably create a world in which there will be people in desperate need of help and

the people expected to provide assistance will simply not be in a position to offer such assistance.

 

 

 

 

 


Edited by mag1, 09 January 2018 - 12:48 AM.

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#64 Believer

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Posted 01 February 2018 - 01:21 PM

All of you are speaking like it's not intentional that fertility rates are declining. Have you hit your heads? Birth control and abortion, as well as so many social movements regarding people's ""rights," have exactly to do with reducing population growth and fertility. You probably don't need an iq higher than 80 to figure this stuff out.


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#65 BlueCloud

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Posted 18 February 2018 - 10:18 PM

When I see the level of profound stupidity in some of the posts here, I think that the probability of  extinction of the human race in the near future isn't such a bad thing after all. It's probably the best thing that can happen to us.


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#66 mag1

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Posted 20 February 2018 - 12:10 AM

BlueCloud thank you for joining the conversation.

I am always happy to welcome new posters to the thread who have different perspectives.

 

It is true that there will be clear downsides to the current demographic situation. We will surely be impoverished for not having the millions

of highly intelligent people that will never be born and given the chance to express their brilliance. However, the rapidly approaching genetic enhancement of

intelligence might allow us to have more geniuses even with declining populations. Yet, there will also be upsides.

 

What I find especially optimistic about the ongoing collapse of global fertility rates is that it is making wide scale conflict essentially impossible.

I think back only 100 years ago and I consider the horrors that were inflicted upon Europe and the even greater horrors that occurred there

less than 25 years later. I do not want that to ever happen again...  anywhere. Yet, how one might actually stop such seemingly hardwired

primate behaviors has alluded me through all these years.

 

However, finally I can see how powerful a defence demography offers us. It is now abundantly clear to me that demographic collapse offers

a nearly invincible shield against human brutalities. Even those nations that one might have imagined to be immune from the influences of

demography have become its servant. Strikingly the few remaining conflicts outside of Sub-Saharan Africa, exist almost exclusively in nations

with total fertility rates in excess of replacement. Notably the conflict in Syria appears as though its demographic profile might compel it to

accept peace.

 

When you look at the global total fertility rates figures included in my first post of this thread, it is truly remarkable to see how widespread the

decline in TFR has been over the last 30 years. I doubt whether anyone would truly want to return to the demographics that existed in the figure

from 1985. It is hardly surprising that starting with such high fertility that our world unfolded as it has over the last 3 decades. Now when you look at the

global TFR figure from 2020 you have a much different premonition for the next few decades. With all the deep blue (below replacement) regions it already

does not seem entirely unreasonable to expect that the only fight that will occur in the future is over providing the best possible offer to prospective migrants. 


BlueCloud thank you for joining the conversation.

I am always happy to welcome new posters to the thread who have different perspectives.

 

It is true that there will be clear downsides to the current demographic situation. We will surely be impoverished for not having the millions

of highly intelligent that will never be born and given the chance to express their brilliance. However, the rapidly approaching genetic enhancement of

intelligence might allow us to have more geniuses even with declining populations. Yet, there will also be upsides.

 

What I find especially optimistic about the ongoing collapse of global fertility rates is that it is making wide scale conflict essentially impossible.

I think back only 100 years ago and I consider the horrors that were inflicted upon Europe and the even greater horrors that occurred there

less than 25 years later. I do not want that to ever happen again...  anywhere. Yet, how one might actually stop such seemingly hardwired

primate behaviors has alluded me through all these years.

 

However, finally I can see how powerful a defence demography offers us. It is now abundantly clear to me that demographic collapse offers

a nearly invincible shield against human brutalities. Even those nations that one might have imagined to be immune from the influences of

demography have become its servant. Strikingly the few remaining conflicts outside of Sub-Saharan Africa, exist almost exclusively in nations

with total fertility rates in excess of replacement. Notably the conflict in Syria appears as though its demographic profile might compel it to

accept peace.

 

When you look at the global total fertility rates figures included in my first post of this thread, it is truly remarkable to see how widespread the

decline in TFR has been over the last 30 years. I doubt whether anyone would truly want to return to the demographics that existed in the figure

from the 1985. It is hardly surprising that starting with such high fertility that our world unfolded as it has over the last 3 decades. Now when you look at the

global TFR figure from 2020 you have a much different premonition for the next few decades. With all the deep blue (below replacement) regions it already

does not seem entirely unreasonable to expect that the only fight that will occur in the future is over providing the best possible offer to prospective migrants. 


Edited by mag1, 20 February 2018 - 12:13 AM.

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#67 QuestforLife

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Posted 21 February 2018 - 02:33 PM

Overall I think you are right Mag1, declining fertility and eventual population decline will be a profoundly good thing. I think the next twenty years could be very turbulent however, as movement of people is easier than ever, and we will likely have huge influxes from poorer to richer areas. I am not sure that the current policy for rich countries to invite such numbers is a good thing; yes it helps with balancing the pensions book, but with impending life extension and robotics, it may be more trouble than it is worth. Just my 2 pennies worth.


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#68 mag1

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 12:28 AM

QuestforLife, thank you for posting.

I am especially grateful because this is one of those threads where posting your true convictions can hurt you due to the negative ratings.

 

I have spent hours gazing into and contemplating the real world import of the world fertility maps from my first post.

I greatly wish that people who live in the few remaining nations of the world outside of sub-Saharan Africa with above replacement total fertility

would make a special effort to move it below replacement. It is truly startling to realize that nearly exclusively those few remaining nations with above

replacement are the very nations that are currently the central players in creating local, regional and even international security risk. My nation has 

sent various types of conflict resolution personnel to several of these places in which not all the personnel returned home.

 

Given the external costs that these conflict nations impose on others, I am sure that if I lived in any of them as a matter of conscience I would actively

promote a low fertility lifestyle. It is a fundamental principle of human decency not to impose such externalities on others.

 

Consider the Philippines. Their TFR is near 3 and falling, so it should be expected that over the next 10-20 years they will join the rest of the world 

community as a below replacement nation and help promote internal and regional security in the process. However, currently they are ageing through

a high fertility birth cohort born in the 1990s and the accompanying population momentum that it entails. To cope with the resulting internal security

threat, attack helicopters are attempting to be procured. I greatly wish that the people in the Philippines consider using a non-violent strategy of

low fertility to exert demographic force to alleviate their current circumstance.

 

It is truly baffling to me that life and reproduction could even go on as normal during a period of war or national internal threat. As my own personal 

act of conscience I would never bring a life into the world when the lives of those around had become so highly devalued. As can be seen

clearly and unequivocally such a strategy if widely adopted by all people of all sides would result in conflicts that quickly would become unfightable.

 

Currently most developed nations are undergoing enormous sociocultural stress due to TFRs that are usually in the range of 1.3-1.8.

A TFR anything close to 0.0 would cause almost immediately a demographic crisis; if not panic. For whatever reason the power of reproduction 

has seldom been used effectively as a tool for political change.

 


Edited by mag1, 23 February 2018 - 12:41 AM.


#69 mag1

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Posted 24 February 2018 - 02:03 AM

Thank you everyone for reawakening my thoughts to this topic!

There is much to be said and I am glad that your comments have encouraged me to contemplate global demography more profoundly.

 

One thought that has me quite excited is that the globe has "aged through" the greatest amount of geopolitical demographic risk over

the last 50 years in all of human history. I have been spinning mental cartwheels of joy after having thought about this. I decided not

to do actual cartwheels because I was worried that I might break something. Some might say that I should go back on my medication

(which is true), though I might need a new prescription to equalize my thoughts-- an anti-happiness pill!

 

If you look back 50 years ago, there were at least a dozen other potential Vietnams within the top 25 most populated nations (excluding Sub-Saharan Africa). These nations

(call them mini-powers) had equally unstable demographies that posed clear geopolitical risk for other nations within their region. It has gone largely without notice, yet

when one looks at the same group of mini-powers today one would not find any that pose a similar level of strategic risk to the world. In fact, almost all of these nations

do not even have meaningful internal security demographic risk. It is quite remarkable. This dozen or so nations has quietly "aged through" their high fertility cohorts and now there is minimal if any risk that such nations will create risk for others. In fact, it would not be unexpected that these very nations would now align with developed nations regarding joint security. It does not require a particularly astute imagination to realize how substantial a counter-force from developed nations would have been needed if any of these mini-powers

had required an international response.

 

What we are left with today in terms of geopolitical risk are not superpowers, nor even mini-powers but instead micro-powers (the next 25 most populated nations

(excluding Sub-Saharan Africa)). Of particular note are the three micro-powers with TFRs above 4: Yemen, Iraq and Afghanistan (the destabilizers). It is hardly surprising that all

of these nations are currently or have recently been involved in conflict. However, the figure below neatly demonstrates the massive progress that they has been made to

normalize their fertility over the last 20 years. The demographic collapse that has occurred in Afghanistan since 2000 might possibly be the most rapid ever achieved by any nation.

It is not difficult to predict that good things are on the way for the Afghans. Given this figure it should not be expected that even the remaining destabilizing micro-powers will have "aged through"

within the next 10 years.

 

I might truly then be ready to do some cartwheels; as long as I was sure that I wouldn't break anything.

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Attached Files


Edited by mag1, 24 February 2018 - 02:21 AM.


#70 mag1

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Posted 24 February 2018 - 02:22 AM

Sorry everyone I have been trying to attach the Figure as a thumbnail, though for some reason the uploader does not appear to accept any file type!

It is a really great figure showing the rapid collapse of fertility especially in Yemen and Afghanistan.



#71 mag1

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Posted 24 February 2018 - 05:34 PM

Afghanistan and Yemen are now undergoing the most profound and rapid demographic change experienced by any nation in the history of the world.

I can only pray that the totality of the meaning of the above sentence somehow reaches them.

 

One clear implication that I infer from this is that violence currently underway in these nations needs to stop-- immediately.

Violence within the context of a close to vertical decline of TFR is beyond insanity.

 

As has happened in all other nations, once Afghanistan feels the full force of demographic collapse a near panic will

ensue insuring that everything possible is done to preserve the most precious resource of a nation: its people.      

The rapid decline in Afghanistan's TFR should be sending a very clear message that Afghanistan is now on the brink of very extreme sociopolitical change.

 

Yet, typically, the past does not speak to the present nor does the past speak to the future.

 

In this instance perhaps the future can speak to the past.

Given the experience of developed nations, the near complete demographic collapse currently underway in Afghanistan and Yemen can only mean one thing:

They are now rapidly approaching a substantial encounter with the forces of modernity and all that this entails.

 

Strangely, many unfamiliar "with the forces of modernity and all that this entails" often apparently believe that some special pleading will allow them to

somehow avoid "and all that this entails". Admittedly if I were transported to back in time 30 years to meet a younger version of myself and I revealed

the changes that would happen in my community over the last number of years I suppose that my younger version would also be unfamiliar with

"and all that this entails" and likely would be ROFLing. Those with a broader perspective of time can, with such insight, act more wisely now.

 

Life is eternal; until you add in the perspective of time and then you realize that life is in constant flux.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



#72 mag1

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Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:42 PM

I had not been fully aware of the demographic transition that is now underway in Yemen and Afghanistan.

This is great news!

I am just so happy and grateful that we are approaching a world beyond conflict.

It is such a miracle that nations with the development features of Yemen and Afghanistan could accomplish this!

 

 

The last remaining micropowers should attain demographic stability at least to the point of being regionally secure by 2030.

This is worthy of a celebration!!!

However, we can not be entirely certain of this until the current cohorts have aged through and the demographic collapse continues

to closer to the replacement level.

 

So we can not truly be happy or celebrate until January 1st, 2030 at around 7:15 AM.

Let the preparations of the party begin!


Edited by mag1, 24 February 2018 - 09:01 PM.

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#73 QuestforLife

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Posted 24 February 2018 - 09:16 PM

I wouldn't say the likes of Afghanistan etc., are out of the woods just yet. The wrong insular regime and they could yet remain a troublespot. But granted it will be hard to wage war with a stable, or even shrinking population that most of the world is heading for. I think already most of the population rise in the world today is coming from declining death rates rather than increasing birth rates. Having said that, one potential future issue could be fast growing poor ghettos within rich, otherwise population shrinking countries. I.e. look at all the of the problems coming out of those areas in France and Belgium. So sufficient resources need to be put into raising those areas up to a decent standard of living.

#74 mag1

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Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:32 PM

Yes, QuestforLife, you are quite correct. Extrapolating the past into the future and being confident that your prediction will be realized has too often been shown

to be inaccurate.

 

The one great part of all this is that it is beyond the control of any of the usual suspects. Once the people have become fixated on a demographic trajectory (however,

such a magical process is set in motion), no ideology appears capable of changing its course. Demography results from large scale psycho-socio-politico-economic forces

that essentially are felt over the course of many decades. We can now already begin to peer into the demographic patterns that likely will be present in the 22nd Century.

This is of course what has so many people (rightfully) terrified with what is now happening in developed nations. We are already experiencing a severe demographic

crisis. By all rights this crisis will continue over at least the next century by which time it will have evolved into a stark panic over the very existence of modern civilization.  

I am so excited by the potential for this extreme existential crisis to be the driver for ongoing elevations in humans rights.

 

It has not entirely escaped my attention that this thread has a stated purpose (see the top of this page) of  "Advocacy & Research for Unlimited Lifespans". Such a quest

to many might seem somewhat fanciful if not downright undesirable. However, with the quickly approaching panic level "Man the Life Boats" existential demographic threat

that is forming, the demand for and quite probably universal political agreement to such advocacy is almost assured. When I say, "Jump!"; you say, "How high?".  

We are now likely close to the time when global leadership will not be able to pretend that the people have not acquired such power. One would only need to carefully examine 

the current demographic global maps to realize that we have already reached this crisis point.  

 

"Could also be a great opportunity for them to have a great laugh.

Until of course they fully realize that post-modern reality will in fact be their medium term reality.

Farce becomes fact."

 

I can't say that I have ever had the opportunity to slalom down a hill with as steep a gradient as that of the time series of the TFRs for Yemen or Afghanistan.

It will certainly not be breaking news to me when I read the headline that these nations have entered the modern era.

"Playgrounds are too Dangerous for our Children. A million dollar retrofit is needed."

It took a while for people our way to adapt to these headlines when they started many years ago.

The people in the nations undergoing rapid demographic change should prepare themselves now for a similar future. 

 

All we can say for now is that Afghanistan is undergoing the most rapid demographic that has ever occurred in a nation. Unfortunately,

few people tend to appreciate the implications of such changes until the very moment that the social revolution has begun. Apparently the Arab Spring was

almost entirely unanticipated until the movement had already toppled several Middle Eastern States even though the demographic statistics were out in the open.

 

It would be of such benefit to all if minds could imagine their futures that were approaching. These nations could benefit immediately from the reality that

will become apparent perhaps in 10 years. For example, I suppose many in Afghanistan might find the concept that someone might actually pay them 

to have children somewhat peculiar. Even at the present time, many in the world might find it worthwhile to pay them not to have children. It would, thus, be highly instructive to

point out to those in Afghanistan that Singapore currently pays U$125,000 for having two children. Even still Singapore currently has the world's lowest TFR 

and is not clearly demonstrating even medium term demographic viability.

 

For me I am just waiting on my chance to cash in the geopolitical dividends that will accrue to me once global geopolitical security has been achieved!

As stated before, I believe it is immoral to externalize the cost of geopolitical risk to others, though I see no great moral dilemma in having the opportunity

of a cash out once the risk has been removed. Free rider? Yes, please! Such gains should be substantial as these high fertility nations are currently

imposing substantial external expenses on others.

 

The sooner the Afghans are introduced to this admittedly post-modern reality the better.

Could also be a great opportunity for them to have a great laugh.

Until of course they fully realize that post-modern reality will in fact be their medium term reality.

Farce becomes fact.


Edited by mag1, 24 February 2018 - 11:07 PM.


#75 mag1

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Posted 01 March 2018 - 01:36 AM

Wanted everyone to know that I am still just so happy about this realization about the end of the risk of war (at least for conflict between

combatants outside of Sub-Saharan Africa). I have been double-checking and double-double checking the numbers on my sliderule

and everything seems correct. From what I can see there are no superpowers, minipowers or even micropowers that will present 

regional security risk 10 years into the future.

 

What a relief!

Being able to live your life without having to worry that it would be necessary to send our personnel to a demographically and developmentally

underdeveloped nation will be such a blessing!

 

We live in an abundant loving universe overflowing with positivity and prosperity!


Edited by mag1, 01 March 2018 - 01:37 AM.

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#76 mag1

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Posted 02 November 2018 - 12:23 AM

I wanted to make the thread aware that we are approaching within the next few days a century of the end of WW1. The brutality that occurred then is almost beyond the comprehension level of our now post-fertility society. However, it is a stark reminder of what can happen when fertility is not subjected to strict controls.

 

If we value peace, if we want a better world for our children, we must earn it.

This better world has occurred once we were willing to control our biological drives.

Only children that will be loved intensely and unconditionally by their parents should be born.

Those who would prefer to shop or travel instead of breed, should be congratulated for at least being honest.

 

Low fertility has lead us to a low conflict present and it will lead us to an even lower conflict future.

Celebrate!

Current demographic trends suggest that essentially the entire world will be below replacement within the next ten years!

The only fight that is foreseeable is the fight to provide the highest standard of living to those who want to migrate to developed nations.

We are now on a near certain path to lower taxes as an intense struggle emerges for demographic survival of the developed world.

 

Many might have found such an idea idea amusing even only a few years ago, few doubt should it anymore.

We can force a better future to occur, by consciously controlling our fertility. 

 

We are so blessed with abundance and positive energy.

We live in a loving universe.


Edited by mag1, 02 November 2018 - 12:35 AM.


#77 QuestforLife

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Posted 02 November 2018 - 09:41 AM

As I see it populations in developed nations will continue to get older, but remain healthy and continue to work and be productive. Some will have children but many will not. The population will stabilise and then go into a long slow decline.

I see no reason to allow huge numbers of people from less developed nations to come in and overrun our civilised society. Only the highly skilled should be permitted to move in, and then only in small numbers.
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#78 mag1

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Posted 03 November 2018 - 03:38 PM

QuestforLife, thank you for replying!

 

My comment was especially focused on considering the security implications of demographic collapse in the developed and increasingly the developing world.

This is a never before seen event in the history of humanity.

 

This had me thinking back 100 years to the turmoil in Europe.

If I had been there at that time, I would have been at a total loss of ideas of how to go about preventing a re-occurrence of the epic violence of the First World War.

As we are already know from subsequent European history, WW1 was not the end but merely a prelude to even worse violence.

The answer was not then able to emerge.

 

However, through time the answer did coalesce and it has clearly demonstrated its effectiveness.

Low fertility can constrain our violent tendencies.

There are no developed nations that currently have the demographic strength to withstand a war of attrition.

In fact, the demographic attrition that is currently underway in developed nations is far far greater than the attrition that occurred even during conflict.

 

For me it is truly remarkable that we were able to collectively arrive at this demographic solution to conflict.

I have no doubt that a cure for cancer or Alzheimer's or probably even mortality itself will be found.

Any scientifically framed question is solvable.

10,000 IQ no worries. 

All that these miracles require is one researcher in one lab finding the answer.

It is an infinite number of monkeys typing on an infinite number of typewriters scenario.

With enough monkeys, one would inevitably solve the problem.

 

Yet, with people problems I have never been so sure.

We could live in a 25th Century World of medicine and technology, while still living on an 18th Century dirt road World of

conflict and misery. Unsurprisingly, there is already a movement developing that opposes genetic engineering that

would solve our social problems. 

 

With people, even if you have an infinite number of monkeys banging away on typewriters, somehow one of the

monkeys needs to realize that they have found the answer to the problem and then actually go about spreading

this information to others and others using the information. With scientific questions there is more of a sense that

the answer is found within an organized system that will efficiently distribute it.

 

Somehow through this very murky socio-politcal black box we have created a world which while improbable is nearly devoid of conflict in

developed nations. This miraculous solution should rightfully be preserved in our collective memory.

 

Whenever the Dogs of War rear their heads again, we will know how to respond: Complete Cessation of Fertility .

A 0.0 Total Fertility Rate even over a very brief interval would send waves of panic throughout the socio-politico-economic system.

Many of the nations that are now in full panic mode over their demographic circumstances have TFRs not that much below replacement.

In our modern technological societies, even staying roughly even demographically has significant implications for labor demand, prices etc.

 

When we think back on what happened 100 years ago we can at least have a sense of confidence that we finally know how to stop such

events from recurring. It is true that there are still several nations that are reliving the same problem. However, we have given them the answer.

Reduce fertility! I greatly wish that Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen and others that are currently struggling with conflict could learn from our tortuous history. They could enjoy the same strategic stability that we have achieved if they were to simply immediately stop reproducing.


Edited by mag1, 03 November 2018 - 03:46 PM.


#79 QuestforLife

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Posted 03 November 2018 - 07:58 PM

Of course no Nation has intentionally brought down fertility, in fact quite the reverse. It's mainly been a result of education for women, both partners working, and rising cost of living and raising a family.

Developed Nations might be able to increase fertility with the right financial inducements. Maybe.

Japan is in outright population decline, has barely allowed any immigration, but managed to still grow the economy, just.

#80 Mind

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Posted 04 November 2018 - 11:59 AM

When human society was mostly agricultural, tribal, and war-like (much much more so than today), a large birth-rate was necessary in order to keep society afloat. Now that production of critical resources is becoming highly automated and energy supplies highly stable, a large birth-rate is no longer necessary. I welcome a smaller population. The world is crowded enough.

 

In addition, we don't need more people for "diversity" sake. The increasingly effective tools for modifying ourselves and our reality will create an incredibly more diverse "society" than has ever existed in the past.



#81 mag1

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Posted 04 November 2018 - 05:07 PM

QuestforLife, I am so happy that war has essentially been solved through demographic collapse.

 

Warfare and more particularly how to prevent it has been a lifelong mystery to me.

How exactly would it be possible to stop people from hating each other?

A low fertility tactic is such a powerful way to prevent conflict that I feel fairly confident that I can check off World Peace on my list of to-dos.

 

I think a great way to think of the underlying forces involved in conflict is that fertility rates are inversely related to the amount of love available to each child.

The common view has been that large families means that the children will be loved.

It is difficult to imagine that this is in fact true.

The relationship is inverse, not direct.

 

Seen from this vantage point, the main problem in Afghanistan and other nations currently under stress is a near absence of children that are loved.

There is a love deficit.

Solving war simply involves reducing fertility, so that children receive the love that they need to avoid the hate.  

 

World Peace-- Problem solved!

 

I will be waiting by my mailbox for the letter from Oslo to accept the Peace Prize!

I have a nice speech all prepared.

 

Of course, the prize really belongs to the entirety of humanity.

Somehow the collective mind of humanity was able to discover this solution and somehow the behavior was actually adopted broadly by people of all nations.

 

It is fantastic!

 

Surf to the url below. Almost the entire world outside of Sub-Saharan Africa is now blue (i.e., at or below replacement levels of fertility).

The meaning of this does not appear to have reached mainstream consciousness. I think that for the benefit of those who are not aware

of what is now imminent a few headlines are in order. Why wait for the headlines to appear in print when you can read them here first?

 

 

UK offers a 100,000 pound signing bonus to migrate

 

 

America pleads with Mexicans: Visit the US, Please!

Free Tacos!

 

I do not understand why this is not more self-apparent to people. With demographics you have an accurate picture of how the world

will unfold 20, 50 or more years into the future. It should be clear to everyone that given existing total fertility rates, the socio-politico-economic

forces that should be expected to ramp up over next few decades will be extreme. Everyone will demand migrants, though no one will have

any to spare. The supply demand relationship will soon need to find a new equilibrium level.  Nations that try to pursue high tax policies have no future. Those nations that have no intention of adapting to reality can finally be left to extinction.

 

We can just wait for those born in high fertility nations during the 1990s to age through and then we will be left with a world of uniformly low fertility. There will be a desperate struggle by all nations to attract migrants. As it is now there are no nations that will be able to supply these migrants. The demographic shock waves that we are experiencing now are only the start of an exponential ramp up!

 

This is super fantastic!

 

 

https://www.google.c...Q9QEwAHoECAsQBg

 


Edited by mag1, 04 November 2018 - 05:13 PM.


#82 QuestforLife

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Posted 04 November 2018 - 05:16 PM

But why would a developed low fertility nation want large numbers of migrants just to work in low paid, unskilled jobs?

Better by far to go up the value chain, increase productivity with less people, less jobs and more innovation.

As you say when the whole world moves to low fertility many problems will be solved. Unfortunately at the moment some nations are still high fertility and are exporting lots of people seeking better standard of living. So lots of turbulence remains.

#83 mag1

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Posted 04 November 2018 - 08:18 PM

Very well articulated statement, Mind, I expect no less from you.

 

You alluded to the potential of genetic enhancement which I think needs to be explored further.

The large concern clearly is that of the loss of human potential simply resulting from demographic decline.

 

It is now clearly established that human IQ is genetically determined by many tens of thousands of variants.

All that is necessary to produce another Einstein is to spin the wheel another time until you hit the jackpot.

This breed like rabbits strategy, while primitive, is at least at some rudimentary level effective (until of course you run out of space, oxygen, food etc.). We are without question now at or very close to the moment of maximal human intellectual potential.

 

This is the best time in the history of the universe ever to be alive!

It's great!

Yeah!

There is without doubt more highly intelligent people in the world than have ever existed before.

 

Yet, it might very well be all downhill from here.

Total fertility rates in all developed nations have collapsed.

For some this happened over 50 years ago.

It is no longer empty speculation to suggest, our future will see an unwinding of our technological accomplishments.

Other societies have witnessed reversals in development (most notably Tasmania); perhaps this will be our fate as well.

 

The answer is of course obvious, genetic enhancement.

We do not need to generate 100 billion random genomes to create an Einstein, we could simply go into the lab and genetically engineer one or 

if we liked an entire world of extreme geniuses.

 

So we are all set then.

A world of genius, wealth, prosperity, freedom, happiness, and love should just be around the corner. 

Not so fast!

 

No matter how much humans can achieve, there is another group of humans, probably greater in number that row in the wrong direction.

Call it the First Law of Human Behavior.

As soon as it became clear that the world described above was possible, inevitably a global moratorium on creating it was announced.

 

If we were to leave this to a simple majority vote, I would be worried whether the yeas would actually clinch it.


Edited by mag1, 04 November 2018 - 08:23 PM.


#84 mag1

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Posted 04 November 2018 - 08:54 PM

QuestforLife, you are highlighting the central driving factor of the recent global political upheaval.

The heartlands of most of developed nations do not want the widespread migration that is redefining

their cultural and social identities. It is only the elites that want to continue certain economic or political

policies that highly favor mass migration. For how would it even be possible to maintain a spend and tax

policy, if the internal fertility were declining? Running up huge deficits can only be sustained by allowing

population growth to counteract such mis-spending. imagine what would happen if population decline was

chronic. Exponential declines in population would lead to spiraling increases in per capita debt.

The elites have chosen mass migration over the wishes of most of their citizens. 

 

While some might find comfort in knowing that the age of barbaric conflict is over, this new era of mass migration 

could easily eventually lead to the age in which developed world cultural identity is over.  

 

My near family were resident in the United Kingdom for centuries, though this was not enough to keep us from being

deported. We were part of the British tradition for centuries, though we were still not British enough. British mentality

has been cultivated and selected over many thousands of years: it is a very specific attitude toward how life is to be

conducted. The mass importation of hundreds of thousands of newcomers to the UK is certainly not consistent with

the British culture that has been finely refined over such a long period of time. No great insight is required to

foresee that at current rates of migration little will remain of the cultures of many developed nations over the next decades.

 

However, when you carefully view the figure below you can see that such a future is not unfolding. The age of mass migration is 

nearing an end. For example, a big political concern in the US now is the migration from their Southern frontier with Mexico. When you

look at the Figure attached you can see that those currently being born might not be interested in migrating north of the border. In fact, Mexico

will likely need to do all it can do to keep those young people from leaving. If it were not successful in doing this, then, surprising, Mexico could look forward to its own demographic collapse. It is quite striking to realize that so many of the nations who in 1995-2000 were sources of migrants will in the years ahead, need to become recipients of migrants. Of even greater interest, is that all of the Americas has reached the point of fertility collapse. Nearly every nation in this region will both have below replacement fertility and will need to attract migrants to fill in the shortfall. There will be an extreme competition for people.

 

 

   

Attached Files


Edited by mag1, 04 November 2018 - 09:02 PM.


#85 QuestforLife

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Posted 04 November 2018 - 08:59 PM

Well in that case Mag1 I have a plan
1. Solve (or atleast significantly postpone, aging)
2. Relocate with a colony of like-minded people to a space colony independent of earth
3. Accelerate technological and human development and leave the rest of humanity behind

#86 OP2040

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Posted 05 November 2018 - 06:30 PM

I guess I'm always the optimist on these things, as I see a direct metaphysical connection between the demography and conquering aging.  It's as if the one is preparing us for the other.  Also, even on a more practical level, the demographic decline should help force the aging issue.  Just like labor shortages for automation, highly advanced countries will have to come up with aging interventions to avoid disaster.  And they will come up with them.

 

I've always loved maps and charts so I can't wait to see what those demographic transition charts look like in the future.  Fertility may keep pushing toward zero, but then so will mortality, while population stabilizes.   Basically we will be the first species to be in some sort of rational control over our population dynamics. 


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#87 mag1

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Posted 06 November 2018 - 01:36 AM

OP2040, thank you for joining the conversation!

The more the merrier, especially if we are now approaching demographic collapse!

With such a collapse on the horizon, I will need to increase my ability to string together witty and insightful comments

if I want to secure an audience. Competition will make us stronger!

 

This is a very good point that you have introduced into the discussion.

There surely is a connection between demography and ageing.

 

We all know what happens in musical chairs when the chairs start disappearing.

Such has been the circumstance of humanity even up to the present time.

The ground rock assumption of economics is based on this very notion that there is an innate scarcity of resources.

Exponential population decline will surely challenge these assumptions.

 

As you also noted ageing itself will finally become recognized as an issue of concern. This has manifested. The American

government has at last seen the tidal wave of Alzheimer's dementia and realized something needs to be done and soon. Current

budget allocation is over $2 billion. Not long ago it was well below $1 billion.

 

My perception is that dementia is already the main constraint on continued increases in life expectancy. As I have noted on another thread,

100% of 90 year olds already qualify for at least Braak stage 1 neuropathology. The emergence of frank Alzheimer's dementia is then only a question of time. I suggest that more efforts by our forum should be made to advance the research into dementing illness. The scenario envisioned in Gulliver's Travels, in which people live forever, yet then develop dementia should no longer be assumed to be merely a child's story.

 

 

 


Edited by mag1, 06 November 2018 - 01:42 AM.

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#88 QuestforLife

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Posted 06 November 2018 - 08:42 AM

Dementia is merely the aging process acting on the brain. Whether it is primarily brought on by microbes, inflammation, exhaustion of microglia, build up of inter or intra cellular deposits, or a combination thereof is irrelevant - anything that delays the aging process will delay dementia and the huge care costs that come with it.

 

Two large old peoples' homes have just been built in the town where I live. This means most of the population of my town is now over 65. Governments need to stop kicking the can down the road. My fear is with their lack of imagination the only answer they will come up with is mass immigration. At least the Japanese have invested heavily in robotics. Biotech would be better.


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#89 OP2040

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Posted 06 November 2018 - 01:34 PM

Dementia is merely the aging process acting on the brain. Whether it is primarily brought on by microbes, inflammation, exhaustion of microglia, build up of inter or intra cellular deposits, or a combination thereof is irrelevant - anything that delays the aging process will delay dementia and the huge care costs that come with it.

 

Two large old peoples' homes have just been built in the town where I live. This means most of the population of my town is now over 65. Governments need to stop kicking the can down the road. My fear is with their lack of imagination the only answer they will come up with is mass immigration. At least the Japanese have invested heavily in robotics. Biotech would be better.

 

We are definitely going to be in some kind of stressful transition or even crisis mode at some point.  The immigration "solution" is already starting to be non-viable, both for political reasons and because most of the world outside Africa is already on the way to population stabilization or decline.  I expect to see the East Asian countries take the lead at some point simply because they refuse to entertain the ridiculous mass immigration schemes that we do in the West.

 

I would expect that the debate and biotech acceleration will start in earnest as countries start messing with retirement ages.  The new consensus that will have to be formed is something like "I will keep working, if you keep me healthy".  And I'm very confident that if you throw enough money at something, rapid progress will be made. 

 

But I am with you, it's very frustrating how we always wait until the last minute to make the right decisions.  There should already be massive investment and government support for this.  I also hate when they talk about stupid non-solutions like having robots take care of the elderly.  How does that resolve anything?  Anyway, something will have to be done.....or else.


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#90 OP2040

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Posted 06 November 2018 - 01:43 PM

Aside from all the negative stuff, there is also a huge amount of money and incentives for this to happen.  Even the tiniest nudge away from aging would generate untold material and non-material benefit for society.  The million dollar question whether it can be done in time.  But we should be grateful for all the built up pressures.  It is forcing people out of their cultural and evolutionary slumber.  In the past, people always put their faith and resources in future generations and death was considered not just inevitable but almost necessary.  The demographics are just one more nail in the coffin (pun intended) of the death delusion.

 

I love the philosophy behind all of this, but I'm not sure this is the thread to explore it.  I will just say this.  We (or a future generation) will look back on our evolutionary history as just one stage in our long story that served a purpose for that time.  The new consensus is that evolution, while wonderfully explanatory, is an evil that must be overcome.  We will for the first time be complete masters of our own destiny.  In that context, taking control of our own demography is just one aspect of the larger project.







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