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Global Demographic Collapse has Arrived!

total fertility rate demography singularity conflict

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#61 Keizo

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Posted 03 December 2017 - 01:50 AM

One way to increase birth-rates, and this might be tried if things go far enough, is to ban contraceptives. More specifically the most convenient and physical forms of them such as condoms and birth control pills. I would guess that this would in fact increase birth rates quite a lot, but not to extreme levels necessarily.  As far as financial carrots to make (intelligent) people have more children that if I recall didn't prove effective in the past. Fear I am sure is a much better motivator, fear of spending time in prison or getting a big fat tax for not meeting the state-required number of pregnancies. Although these suggestions are getting a bit ridiculous or at least unrealistic, and I do think and hope that there are quite enough intelligent people that do want and will have children on their own accord.


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#62 mag1

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Posted 03 December 2017 - 08:47 PM

It might take a while, though we really need to think of demographic collapse as the solution and not the problem.

Crowd wisdom has brought us to this state; trying to find ways to manipulate it could be very counter-productive.

 

The Asian perspective of demographic decline has shown considerable wisdom. It speaks to a meditative quality of

accepting what is and allowing one's mind to contemplate and adjust to reality as it exists; not adjusting reality to

fit what the mind wants to exist.

 

I have found contemplating this point of view helpful.

Life is not good nor bad.

Life is as it is.

Accepting objective reality as it exists is adaptive and it shows a measure of maturity.

 

 

Yet, the Western perspective has been less adaptive. Instead of accepting reality as it is and letting our minds adjust,

we have adjusted reality to fit our mind's sense of reality. Basically this approach avoids having to think. Even after going

through a large demographic shift mass immigration has largely not changed reality at all. After a generation immigrants 

to Western nations typically adopt a low fertility lifestyle, so an endless influx of new migrants becomes necessary.

However, as can be seen in the above Figure, we have reached the point where there will be no surplus fertility in 

any nation outside of Sub-Saharan Africa. Western nations might soon require their citizens to adjust their internal

equilibria as the option to distort external reality might no longer available.

 

The great benefit will be that the highly socially disruptive mass immigration window will be closed and Western

nations will be able to restore the sense of community that has been constantly eroded for the last many decades.


Edited by mag1, 03 December 2017 - 09:00 PM.


#63 mag1

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Posted 09 January 2018 - 12:47 AM

I am so happy that we have now rolled into a New Year and the approaching severe demographic is even closer.

We are day by day and year by year inexorably moving to a world in which conflict is essentially impossible.

 

Last year, Syria, one of the only highish fertility nations finally felt compelled to go to the peace table. 

It is more than a little surprising to me that they had not been induced to do so even sooner.

With millions of its citizens fleeing, ongoing causalities and a fertility rate that was nearing replacement levels and

falling, no other realistic option was open to them. This is one of the best examples of a conflict that was resolved 

due to demographic forces.

 

The demographic force on the few remaining high fertility (and concurrently conflict) nations will now escalate.

It is very comforting to know that we are now on autopilot to a better more peaceful world.

 

Of course, the one large remaining region is Sub-Saharan Africa. It will take almost to the end of this century for

the same demographic circumstances to emerge there. The exponential growth in their population and the ongoing

decline everywhere else, will probably create a world in which there will be people in desperate need of help and

the people expected to provide assistance will simply not be in a position to offer such assistance.

 

 

 

 

 


Edited by mag1, 09 January 2018 - 12:48 AM.

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#64 Believer

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Posted 01 February 2018 - 01:21 PM

All of you are speaking like it's not intentional that fertility rates are declining. Have you hit your heads? Birth control and abortion, as well as so many social movements regarding people's ""rights," have exactly to do with reducing population growth and fertility. You probably don't need an iq higher than 80 to figure this stuff out.


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#65 BlueCloud

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Posted 18 February 2018 - 10:18 PM

When I see the level of profound stupidity in some of the posts here, I think that the probability of  extinction of the human race in the near future isn't such a bad thing after all. It's probably the best thing that can happen to us.


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#66 mag1

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Posted 20 February 2018 - 12:10 AM

BlueCloud thank you for joining the conversation.

I am always happy to welcome new posters to the thread who have different perspectives.

 

It is true that there will be clear downsides to the current demographic situation. We will surely be impoverished for not having the millions

of highly intelligent people that will never be born and given the chance to express their brilliance. However, the rapidly approaching genetic enhancement of

intelligence might allow us to have more geniuses even with declining populations. Yet, there will also be upsides.

 

What I find especially optimistic about the ongoing collapse of global fertility rates is that it is making wide scale conflict essentially impossible.

I think back only 100 years ago and I consider the horrors that were inflicted upon Europe and the even greater horrors that occurred there

less than 25 years later. I do not want that to ever happen again...  anywhere. Yet, how one might actually stop such seemingly hardwired

primate behaviors has alluded me through all these years.

 

However, finally I can see how powerful a defence demography offers us. It is now abundantly clear to me that demographic collapse offers

a nearly invincible shield against human brutalities. Even those nations that one might have imagined to be immune from the influences of

demography have become its servant. Strikingly the few remaining conflicts outside of Sub-Saharan Africa, exist almost exclusively in nations

with total fertility rates in excess of replacement. Notably the conflict in Syria appears as though its demographic profile might compel it to

accept peace.

 

When you look at the global total fertility rates figures included in my first post of this thread, it is truly remarkable to see how widespread the

decline in TFR has been over the last 30 years. I doubt whether anyone would truly want to return to the demographics that existed in the figure

from 1985. It is hardly surprising that starting with such high fertility that our world unfolded as it has over the last 3 decades. Now when you look at the

global TFR figure from 2020 you have a much different premonition for the next few decades. With all the deep blue (below replacement) regions it already

does not seem entirely unreasonable to expect that the only fight that will occur in the future is over providing the best possible offer to prospective migrants. 


BlueCloud thank you for joining the conversation.

I am always happy to welcome new posters to the thread who have different perspectives.

 

It is true that there will be clear downsides to the current demographic situation. We will surely be impoverished for not having the millions

of highly intelligent that will never be born and given the chance to express their brilliance. However, the rapidly approaching genetic enhancement of

intelligence might allow us to have more geniuses even with declining populations. Yet, there will also be upsides.

 

What I find especially optimistic about the ongoing collapse of global fertility rates is that it is making wide scale conflict essentially impossible.

I think back only 100 years ago and I consider the horrors that were inflicted upon Europe and the even greater horrors that occurred there

less than 25 years later. I do not want that to ever happen again...  anywhere. Yet, how one might actually stop such seemingly hardwired

primate behaviors has alluded me through all these years.

 

However, finally I can see how powerful a defence demography offers us. It is now abundantly clear to me that demographic collapse offers

a nearly invincible shield against human brutalities. Even those nations that one might have imagined to be immune from the influences of

demography have become its servant. Strikingly the few remaining conflicts outside of Sub-Saharan Africa, exist almost exclusively in nations

with total fertility rates in excess of replacement. Notably the conflict in Syria appears as though its demographic profile might compel it to

accept peace.

 

When you look at the global total fertility rates figures included in my first post of this thread, it is truly remarkable to see how widespread the

decline in TFR has been over the last 30 years. I doubt whether anyone would truly want to return to the demographics that existed in the figure

from the 1985. It is hardly surprising that starting with such high fertility that our world unfolded as it has over the last 3 decades. Now when you look at the

global TFR figure from 2020 you have a much different premonition for the next few decades. With all the deep blue (below replacement) regions it already

does not seem entirely unreasonable to expect that the only fight that will occur in the future is over providing the best possible offer to prospective migrants. 


Edited by mag1, 20 February 2018 - 12:13 AM.

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#67 QuestforLife

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Posted 21 February 2018 - 02:33 PM

Overall I think you are right Mag1, declining fertility and eventual population decline will be a profoundly good thing. I think the next twenty years could be very turbulent however, as movement of people is easier than ever, and we will likely have huge influxes from poorer to richer areas. I am not sure that the current policy for rich countries to invite such numbers is a good thing; yes it helps with balancing the pensions book, but with impending life extension and robotics, it may be more trouble than it is worth. Just my 2 pennies worth.


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#68 mag1

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 12:28 AM

QuestforLife, thank you for posting.

I am especially grateful because this is one of those threads where posting your true convictions can hurt you due to the negative ratings.

 

I have spent hours gazing into and contemplating the real world import of the world fertility maps from my first post.

I greatly wish that people who live in the few remaining nations of the world outside of sub-Saharan Africa with above replacement total fertility

would make a special effort to move it below replacement. It is truly startling to realize that nearly exclusively those few remaining nations with above

replacement are the very nations that are currently the central players in creating local, regional and even international security risk. My nation has 

sent various types of conflict resolution personnel to several of these places in which not all the personnel returned home.

 

Given the external costs that these conflict nations impose on others, I am sure that if I lived in any of them as a matter of conscience I would actively

promote a low fertility lifestyle. It is a fundamental principle of human decency not to impose such externalities on others.

 

Consider the Philippines. Their TFR is near 3 and falling, so it should be expected that over the next 10-20 years they will join the rest of the world 

community as a below replacement nation and help promote internal and regional security in the process. However, currently they are ageing through

a high fertility birth cohort born in the 1990s and the accompanying population momentum that it entails. To cope with the resulting internal security

threat, attack helicopters are attempting to be procured. I greatly wish that the people in the Philippines consider using a non-violent strategy of

low fertility to exert demographic force to alleviate their current circumstance.

 

It is truly baffling to me that life and reproduction could even go on as normal during a period of war or national internal threat. As my own personal 

act of conscience I would never bring a life into the world when the lives of those around had become so highly devalued. As can be seen

clearly and unequivocally such a strategy if widely adopted by all people of all sides would result in conflicts that quickly would become unfightable.

 

Currently most developed nations are undergoing enormous sociocultural stress due to TFRs that are usually in the range of 1.3-1.8.

A TFR anything close to 0.0 would cause almost immediately a demographic crisis; if not panic. For whatever reason the power of reproduction 

has seldom been used effectively as a tool for political change.

 


Edited by mag1, 23 February 2018 - 12:41 AM.


#69 mag1

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Posted 24 February 2018 - 02:03 AM

Thank you everyone for reawakening my thoughts to this topic!

There is much to be said and I am glad that your comments have encouraged me to contemplate global demography more profoundly.

 

One thought that has me quite excited is that the globe has "aged through" the greatest amount of geopolitical demographic risk over

the last 50 years in all of human history. I have been spinning mental cartwheels of joy after having thought about this. I decided not

to do actual cartwheels because I was worried that I might break something. Some might say that I should go back on my medication

(which is true), though I might need a new prescription to equalize my thoughts-- an anti-happiness pill!

 

If you look back 50 years ago, there were at least a dozen other potential Vietnams within the top 25 most populated nations (excluding Sub-Saharan Africa). These nations

(call them mini-powers) had equally unstable demographies that posed clear geopolitical risk for other nations within their region. It has gone largely without notice, yet

when one looks at the same group of mini-powers today one would not find any that pose a similar level of strategic risk to the world. In fact, almost all of these nations

do not even have meaningful internal security demographic risk. It is quite remarkable. This dozen or so nations has quietly "aged through" their high fertility cohorts and now there is minimal if any risk that such nations will create risk for others. In fact, it would not be unexpected that these very nations would now align with developed nations regarding joint security. It does not require a particularly astute imagination to realize how substantial a counter-force from developed nations would have been needed if any of these mini-powers

had required an international response.

 

What we are left with today in terms of geopolitical risk are not superpowers, nor even mini-powers but instead micro-powers (the next 25 most populated nations

(excluding Sub-Saharan Africa)). Of particular note are the three micro-powers with TFRs above 4: Yemen, Iraq and Afghanistan (the destabilizers). It is hardly surprising that all

of these nations are currently or have recently been involved in conflict. However, the figure below neatly demonstrates the massive progress that they has been made to

normalize their fertility over the last 20 years. The demographic collapse that has occurred in Afghanistan since 2000 might possibly be the most rapid ever achieved by any nation.

It is not difficult to predict that good things are on the way for the Afghans. Given this figure it should not be expected that even the remaining destabilizing micro-powers will have "aged through"

within the next 10 years.

 

I might truly then be ready to do some cartwheels; as long as I was sure that I wouldn't break anything.

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Attached Files


Edited by mag1, 24 February 2018 - 02:21 AM.


#70 mag1

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Posted 24 February 2018 - 02:22 AM

Sorry everyone I have been trying to attach the Figure as a thumbnail, though for some reason the uploader does not appear to accept any file type!

It is a really great figure showing the rapid collapse of fertility especially in Yemen and Afghanistan.



#71 mag1

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Posted 24 February 2018 - 05:34 PM

Afghanistan and Yemen are now undergoing the most profound and rapid demographic change experienced by any nation in the history of the world.

I can only pray that the totality of the meaning of the above sentence somehow reaches them.

 

One clear implication that I infer from this is that violence currently underway in these nations needs to stop-- immediately.

Violence within the context of a close to vertical decline of TFR is beyond insanity.

 

As has happened in all other nations, once Afghanistan feels the full force of demographic collapse a near panic will

ensue insuring that everything possible is done to preserve the most precious resource of a nation: its people.      

The rapid decline in Afghanistan's TFR should be sending a very clear message that Afghanistan is now on the brink of very extreme sociopolitical change.

 

Yet, typically, the past does not speak to the present nor does the past speak to the future.

 

In this instance perhaps the future can speak to the past.

Given the experience of developed nations, the near complete demographic collapse currently underway in Afghanistan and Yemen can only mean one thing:

They are now rapidly approaching a substantial encounter with the forces of modernity and all that this entails.

 

Strangely, many unfamiliar "with the forces of modernity and all that this entails" often apparently believe that some special pleading will allow them to

somehow avoid "and all that this entails". Admittedly if I were transported to back in time 30 years to meet a younger version of myself and I revealed

the changes that would happen in my community over the last number of years I suppose that my younger version would also be unfamiliar with

"and all that this entails" and likely would be ROFLing. Those with a broader perspective of time can, with such insight, act more wisely now.

 

Life is eternal; until you add in the perspective of time and then you realize that life is in constant flux.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



#72 mag1

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Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:42 PM

I had not been fully aware of the demographic transition that is now underway in Yemen and Afghanistan.

This is great news!

I am just so happy and grateful that we are approaching a world beyond conflict.

It is such a miracle that nations with the development features of Yemen and Afghanistan could accomplish this!

 

 

The last remaining micropowers should attain demographic stability at least to the point of being regionally secure by 2030.

This is worthy of a celebration!!!

However, we can not be entirely certain of this until the current cohorts have aged through and the demographic collapse continues

to closer to the replacement level.

 

So we can not truly be happy or celebrate until January 1st, 2030 at around 7:15 AM.

Let the preparations of the party begin!


Edited by mag1, 24 February 2018 - 09:01 PM.

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#73 QuestforLife

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Posted 24 February 2018 - 09:16 PM

I wouldn't say the likes of Afghanistan etc., are out of the woods just yet. The wrong insular regime and they could yet remain a troublespot. But granted it will be hard to wage war with a stable, or even shrinking population that most of the world is heading for. I think already most of the population rise in the world today is coming from declining death rates rather than increasing birth rates. Having said that, one potential future issue could be fast growing poor ghettos within rich, otherwise population shrinking countries. I.e. look at all the of the problems coming out of those areas in France and Belgium. So sufficient resources need to be put into raising those areas up to a decent standard of living.

#74 mag1

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Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:32 PM

Yes, QuestforLife, you are quite correct. Extrapolating the past into the future and being confident that your prediction will be realized has too often been shown

to be inaccurate.

 

The one great part of all this is that it is beyond the control of any of the usual suspects. Once the people have become fixated on a demographic trajectory (however,

such a magical process is set in motion), no ideology appears capable of changing its course. Demography results from large scale psycho-socio-politico-economic forces

that essentially are felt over the course of many decades. We can now already begin to peer into the demographic patterns that likely will be present in the 22nd Century.

This is of course what has so many people (rightfully) terrified with what is now happening in developed nations. We are already experiencing a severe demographic

crisis. By all rights this crisis will continue over at least the next century by which time it will have evolved into a stark panic over the very existence of modern civilization.  

I am so excited by the potential for this extreme existential crisis to be the driver for ongoing elevations in humans rights.

 

It has not entirely escaped my attention that this thread has a stated purpose (see the top of this page) of  "Advocacy & Research for Unlimited Lifespans". Such a quest

to many might seem somewhat fanciful if not downright undesirable. However, with the quickly approaching panic level "Man the Life Boats" existential demographic threat

that is forming, the demand for and quite probably universal political agreement to such advocacy is almost assured. When I say, "Jump!"; you say, "How high?".  

We are now likely close to the time when global leadership will not be able to pretend that the people have not acquired such power. One would only need to carefully examine 

the current demographic global maps to realize that we have already reached this crisis point.  

 

"Could also be a great opportunity for them to have a great laugh.

Until of course they fully realize that post-modern reality will in fact be their medium term reality.

Farce becomes fact."

 

I can't say that I have ever had the opportunity to slalom down a hill with as steep a gradient as that of the time series of the TFRs for Yemen or Afghanistan.

It will certainly not be breaking news to me when I read the headline that these nations have entered the modern era.

"Playgrounds are too Dangerous for our Children. A million dollar retrofit is needed."

It took a while for people our way to adapt to these headlines when they started many years ago.

The people in the nations undergoing rapid demographic change should prepare themselves now for a similar future. 

 

All we can say for now is that Afghanistan is undergoing the most rapid demographic that has ever occurred in a nation. Unfortunately,

few people tend to appreciate the implications of such changes until the very moment that the social revolution has begun. Apparently the Arab Spring was

almost entirely unanticipated until the movement had already toppled several Middle Eastern States even though the demographic statistics were out in the open.

 

It would be of such benefit to all if minds could imagine their futures that were approaching. These nations could benefit immediately from the reality that

will become apparent perhaps in 10 years. For example, I suppose many in Afghanistan might find the concept that someone might actually pay them 

to have children somewhat peculiar. Even at the present time, many in the world might find it worthwhile to pay them not to have children. It would, thus, be highly instructive to

point out to those in Afghanistan that Singapore currently pays U$125,000 for having two children. Even still Singapore currently has the world's lowest TFR 

and is not clearly demonstrating even medium term demographic viability.

 

For me I am just waiting on my chance to cash in the geopolitical dividends that will accrue to me once global geopolitical security has been achieved!

As stated before, I believe it is immoral to externalize the cost of geopolitical risk to others, though I see no great moral dilemma in having the opportunity

of a cash out once the risk has been removed. Free rider? Yes, please! Such gains should be substantial as these high fertility nations are currently

imposing substantial external expenses on others.

 

The sooner the Afghans are introduced to this admittedly post-modern reality the better.

Could also be a great opportunity for them to have a great laugh.

Until of course they fully realize that post-modern reality will in fact be their medium term reality.

Farce becomes fact.


Edited by mag1, 24 February 2018 - 11:07 PM.


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#75 mag1

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Posted 01 March 2018 - 01:36 AM

Wanted everyone to know that I am still just so happy about this realization about the end of the risk of war (at least for conflict between

combatants outside of Sub-Saharan Africa). I have been double-checking and double-double checking the numbers on my sliderule

and everything seems correct. From what I can see there are no superpowers, minipowers or even micropowers that will present 

regional security risk 10 years into the future.

 

What a relief!

Being able to live your life without having to worry that it would be necessary to send our personnel to a demographically and developmentally

underdeveloped nation will be such a blessing!

 

We live in an abundant loving universe overflowing with positivity and prosperity!


Edited by mag1, 01 March 2018 - 01:37 AM.

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