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Global Demographic Collapse has Arrived!

total fertility rate demography singularity conflict

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#91 QuestforLife

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Posted 09 November 2018 - 08:31 PM

https://www.bbc.co.u...health-46118103
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#92 mag1

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Posted 18 November 2018 - 11:48 PM

QuestforLife, thank you for your reply!

 

When I looked more carefully at the global TFR map for 2015-2020 I noticed that some of the nations' TFRs appeared to be higher than those published in the CIA Factbook report. The map according to the CIA should be somewhat bluer. I also found it interesting that in the WHO NRR database, India was reported to have a significantly lower NRR than would be predicted from TFR alone. This should not be entirely surprising as there is a substantial favoring of the births of boys over girls in India. Indian replacement NRR is expected in the 2020-2025 time frame.

 

It is remarkable! The accepted wisdom is that developed nations will be flooded from migrants from developing nations. However, when you carefully consider the global TFR map the unavoidable conclusion is that currently there are virtually no large scale nations with fertility excess. India is already nearing demographic stability when gender balance is included, Pakistan is quickly moving towards replacement, the Philippines and Egypt are also trending to replacement. That is about all the sources for scale influx of migrants into the developed world. This is an extraordinary accomplishment! Once these TFRs are more fully reflected in global migration patterns, we can finally see wages increase in developed nations for those at the lower end of the wage scale. Minimum wages might increase by $5-$10 per hour.


Edited by mag1, 18 November 2018 - 11:53 PM.

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#93 shp5

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Posted 20 November 2018 - 10:21 PM

mag1, do you have any articles on the topic? I'd like to share the basic message with a few people .



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#94 mag1

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Posted 23 November 2018 - 03:06 AM

shp5, thank you for replying.

 

I prefer to look at the raw fertility numbers. There appears to be a large amount of political spin and social denial about what is clearly happening now. It is very difficult to understand some of the current political responses which appear to be so out of touch with current demographic reality.

 

One only has to look carefully at the numbers in the urls to verify that demographic collapse has occurred in virtually every nation. There are no longer nations that will be able to supply the migration levels of the past, while nearly all nations will be demanding such migrants. Fertility behaviors represents deep values that are not easily changed over the short term. The current fertility collapse should be seen as a long term feature of the modern world (though IQ uplift etc. could easily greatly change the entire fertility decision making process).

 

It was somewhat surprising to read lately of what seems to be a UK political push back against immigration. The notion that developed somehow do not need current migration is highly wishful thinking. What seems much clearer to me is that there simply will not be any migrants soon.

There is a nearly certain move to a much harder right immigration policy over all developed nations to reflect this approaching migrant deficit more than any new found conversion that our cultural heritages are being eroded. It has also occurred to me that funding for developed world hard right organizations might possibly soon be from the many developing nations who will want their own country people to return home as their demographic shock wave becomes all the more apparent.

 

I am also anxiously waiting to see what will happen now that IQ uplift is on the horizon.

Media have finally acknowledged that IQ enhancement is now rapidly approaching.

The July article in Nature Genetics makes such enhancement now imminent.

What happens when people decide to do the rational thing and postpone their fertility until

the technology matures? Will only the less intelligent have children while this unfolds?

Such a temporal psychometric has never occurred before and could have significant effects.

 

https://www.cia.gov/...r/2127rank.html

https://www.google.c...Q9QEwAHoECAsQBg

https://data.worldba...SP.DYN.TFRT.IN/

https://population.u.../wpp/DataQuery/

 

https://www.longecit...crispr-editing/


Edited by mag1, 23 November 2018 - 03:12 AM.


#95 QuestforLife

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Posted 23 November 2018 - 09:59 AM

Immigration is not only driven by populations but also income differentials - hence millions of Europeans particularly from the East, coming to the UK over a short space of time (which has lead to the political pushback). But as incomes at home catch up, some have returned and the immigration from those nations has started to fall.

But we still have a way to go in terms of equalising income between Africa and Europe for example, or Mexico and the US, and in the meantime there will remain a strong desire to move to the higher income areas.

I'm not so sure IQ uplift is imminent. It won't be available in adults until gene therapy using CRISPR or something similar is perfected (with no risk). It is doable in embryos now perhaps, but even if implemented immediately we won't be seeing super intelligent adults for ~20 years; probably about the same amount of time for the adult therapy to be available.
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#96 mag1

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Posted 26 November 2018 - 10:58 PM

Apparently CRISPer human babies have already been born.

This now is very interesting.

Extreme and imminent IQ uplift is now no longer beyond current what can currently be done.

 

https://www.technolo...-crispr-babies/



#97 mag1

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Posted 21 December 2018 - 02:26 AM

Errr... This thread might have taken what some might rightly call a somewhat wrong tack.

It might not be so much that fertility is the problem, but instead it might be more lead.

 

Yes, yes, I know correlation does not mean causation, though everything really did seem to fit like a snug glove.

It was the high fertility nations that were also the nations with a wide range of social problems.

It turns out that it was those nations that were the most resistant to banning leaded gas who also now have some of the most pressing security challenges. What tends to happen is that the most dysfunctional do not merely have a few problems, they often seem to have EVERY problem.

The last remaining nations on this planet that have still not banned leaded gas are Iraq, Yemen and Algeria.

 

 

Sorry everyone for letting down humanity.

 

https://en.wikipedia...wiki/Leaded_gas

https://www.motherjo...undup-for-2018/

 

This is truly startling!

 

Basically what lead has done is it has caused permanent brain damage to everyone over 30 in most developed nations.

This will result in prisons over the next few decades having virtually no young prisoners, while those in prison who have

lead neuropathology will age through. Prisons will become even more geriatric than they already have become. This has largely

already manifest in US criminal justice statistics. The crime rate for those 12 and under has fallen 90% over the last 25 years!

The number of those at risk for a life of criminal justice contact have recently declined dramatically!


Edited by mag1, 21 December 2018 - 02:52 AM.


#98 Mind

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Posted 21 December 2018 - 12:15 PM

American fertility heading lower: https://www.washingt...to-all-time-low

 

Great news for those of us who think the planet is too crowded already.


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#99 mag1

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Posted 21 December 2018 - 11:44 PM

I must speak my truth once again!

 

I am overwhelmed by the overflowing joy and wealth that is now being created in this era of low fertility and in particular low teenage and tweenage fertility. It is enormously inspiring to watch an entire generation around the globe embrace a low fertility lifestyle that will allow for building their human and financial capital, in order to be prepared for a responsible parenthood.

 

We are witnessing the rising up of humanity!

We are building stronger communities and a solid foundation for a glorious future.

 

As mentioned previously, often life will line up in one particular orientation.

 

What is happening now is that everything is lining up in the right way!

Lower teenage and tweenage fertility rates!

A near elimination of lead across the globe!

A universal embrace of higher levels of human capital formation as evidenced by educational attainment!

An approaching Cognitive Singularity Event!

 

The future is looking great!

 

Look at this figures and feel the love!

This is remarkable!

You can clearly see that we are building a stronger future with stronger communities where children will have more of the resources needed for them to fulfill their potentials.

Government is being rejected as a surrogate parent.

 

Here is a primer for those who need a reminder of how abysmal teenage fertility can be:

https://www.nber.org/papers/w13436.pdf

 

This has been a global trend now for over 50 years. The momentum appears unstoppable.

https://data.worldba...tor/SP.ADO.TFRT

 

The US is moving towards European style teenage fertility rates!

https://data.worldba...locations=US-NL

 

Those areas that I suppose might best be called security challenged for political correctness sake are rapidly modernizing their fertility patterns. Yeah!

https://data.worldba...ons=AF-IQ-SY-YE

 

Instead of young people being deceived by a range of interested parties who might welcome their high fertility but have no intention of actually

making any long term commitment to financing such behavior, they are acquiring much greater power over their own lives through capital accumulation. If some try to defraud these young people who have worked hard to acquire this human and financial capital, well I suppose they could just go to some other location that was more aware of how truly severe the demographic collapse already is and actually respected property rights. By waiting until financial security has largely been attained, parents essentially would have all the power to dictate the terms of their occupational and financial lives. Early fertility results in the loss of nearly all of this control.

 

This is an enormously positive development with substantial implications for the policy choices that will be available. The days of high budget deficits and high taxes would not seem to have a particularly promising future. Those nations that do not intend on making concessions to this new generation might quickly realize that they no longer have a future. Along this line of thinking it might not be unreasonable to introduce an age adjusted tax system. For example, for those starting out and beginning to build their wealth base, it would seem reasonable to gradually increase their tax rate.  

 

 

 

 


Edited by mag1, 21 December 2018 - 11:55 PM.






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