885 replies to this topic

[mag1]

niner, I am not sure how much tolerance there will be for invoking the wisdom of the crowd argument, though here goes. The collective judgment deliberated on throughout the election that no easy fix exists for the looming robo transport social crisis is valid. The political instinct demonstrated by both parties not to focus on difficult problems that have no clear answers and only worry people also has a certain veneer of functionality. Crawling up into a fetal position and distracting the nation with a near total focus on issues of personality at the near complete exclusion of policy discussion, while not an entirely mature or even adaptive response does at the very least provide short term comfort. Buying a big box of chocolates is not going to solve anyone's obesity problem, though it can make you feel less miserable for a while.

 

I have been trying my best to think and talk about this issue for some time: no great Eurekas to report as of yet. It is probably too much to expect that others will unlock this any time soon. Uh, (don't laugh), probably near the top of my list while still not a particularly good suggestion is a suggestion nonetheless is: Leisure. Yes, with everyone between assignments there will be quite a bit of leisure time to fill. There could be a monumental surge in the Leisure industry: Leisure suits, Leisure entertainment... A real growth industry there.   

 

I suppose that soon might not be especially amusing. Depending on what time lags might emerge, it is possible that the new era of transportation could emerge during this term of office. With the overwhelming amount of chaos that could result from such an event I am not sure whether the next election will even happen.

 

The thread has not been very friendly towards calling these events the true Singularity, yet for many in heartland America it sure will feel like one. This will be a social Singularity where the place in the world of ordinary citizens will be determined. Such a singularity does not need some overly elaborate or even complex technological change. The collapse of the agricultural economy in the 1930s did not require 21st Century information technology. Transitioning through that upheaval took humanity through enormous tragedy.

 

The oncoming upheaval likely will be far more pervasive.         

Edited by mag1, 10 November 2016 - 05:22 AM.

[aribadabar]

mag1, you think like a rational, logical ( and I would say, at times, utopian) technocrat who is concerned about the humanity like Elon Musk.

In contrast, a typical politician chiefly thinks how to get to,and once gained, then stay in power and possibly get re-elected.

They hardly care about humanity if that does not somehow serve the goals above..so I would be surprised that either Clinton or Trump would have supported these noble goals for development of US and mankind in general because they sincerely believe in them.

If they ever do it, for them they are ulterior motives helping their self-serving purpose, not a primary force.

[mag1]

Thank you for your kind words, aribad.

 

I noticed that Starship is continuing its roll out of robobuggies.

Latest trial is in DC.

 

https://www.starship.xyz/press/

 

I certainly hope that my posts have not been like the cat that roared like a lion.

Spreading unfounded fear is a service to no one.

 

The Starship trials with the buggies appear to have been extremely successful.

People find these buggies sort of cute.

 

I have to admit that the way they are rolling out these buggies with a mothership van that fits 8 buggies,

might be job neutral... at least initially.

 

However, this is largely related to the current implementation. As soon as robotic distribution becomes optimized

there would likely be profound economic disruption. For instance, as a first step local stores within 2-3 miles of customers

could simply buy their own in store delivery buggies. There would be no need for a human driver for the buggy mothership van.

These local stores might then become receiving centers for all goods delivered in a community. In a more advanced version of this

technology self driving vehicles could be the motherships.

 

It seems quite possible that one could also load up hundreds of these buggies into an 18 wheeler and do a daily large scale mass delivery

to each street. This could be a highly effective method to accomplish the bulk of any day's shipments.

   

I would also guess that when this is fully optimized the delivery price would be considerably less than the $1- $3 quoted in the articles.

 

Edited by mag1, 11 November 2016 - 04:36 AM.

[mag1]

I had not been fully aware that Starship intended to move robobuggies into a commercial service in 2017.

My timeline had been that this might reach the market in 2020.

 

This is going to roll out in a month?

 

For some time I have focused on this technology as on the leading edge of emerging disruptive technologies.

Apparently it should now not be long before we know how extensive the disruption will be.

 

The true economy wide disruption that might result from this technology could take a while to manifest. However,

once these buggies cost less than $1000 and delivery prices have moved to a few pennies, it would difficult to imagine

that profound economic restructuring would not occur.   

Edited by mag1, 13 November 2016 - 09:20 PM.

[mag1]

Don`t be like that!

Disagree?

With what?

 

Niner was so right, it will be the lead up to the Singularity that will be the most difficult.

These buggies are merely in the warm up round and they look quite dangerous.

 

What if they do a simple retrofit and give the buggies access to the transit system of

major cities? The buggies would then have nearly city wide reach. Typical cities

have bus service that is within a 10 minute walk for their riders. What if these buggies

hitched a ride on the subway and then got onto a local bus?   

 

I think that I might have called this one the best of any on the thread.

All these high-falutin' AGIs that could outthink the collective intelligence of humanity could still be years on the horizon.

 

A robobuggy that entirely disrupts our economy's distribution system is now imminent.

Sure they look cute and innocuous, though will they still when there are tens of millions of them and they have displaced

the central spoke of our economy?

 

I would love to hear from others about this.

Robobuggies appear to pose a short term risk for disrupting our economy.

 

  

 

Edited by mag1, 13 November 2016 - 11:38 PM.

[mag1]

Starship's mission?

 

"... is to fundamentally reshape how goods are shipped and delivered, and make local delivery, ultimately, FREE. "

 

 

http://www.i-program...-a-reality.html

[Elus]

It appears the robot buggies are imminent. You were right, Mag1...

 

Autonomous droid makes first fast-food delivery

Just Eat claims to have made the world's first ever online food delivery using a self-driving robot. As part of the takeaway food firm's pilot with Starship Technologies, a robot delivery droid was dispatched to autonomously deliver a customer's order in London.

 

US manufacturing is alive and well, but not creating jobs

"Robots are now much more accessible to smaller companies and can deliver a much quicker return on investment," Mr Ulbrich says. "Automation allows these companies to grow and be profitable, and to employ more people."

 

Shift to automation may prevent Trump from delivering on his jobs promise

Trump's victory was enabled by technology — everything from his use of social media to Clinton's email scandals to Russian hacking. But advancements in technology and how they reshape our economy may also keep him from delivering on some of the major promises that made him so popular during the campaign season.

 

60% of students are chasing jobs that may be rendered obsolete by technology, report finds

More than half of students are chasing careers that will be made obsolete by advances in technology and automation, according to a report by the Foundation for Young Australians (FYA). In a worrying finding, the report states that 70 per cent of young people currently enter the workforce in jobs that will be "radically affected by automation". 60 per cent are being trained in jobs that will experience similar levels of change, which could occur within 10 to 15 years.

 

93% of Web Submit Investors Say AI Will Destroy Jobs, Governments Not Prepared

224 global investors with more than $100 billion of investable capital say that governments are not
prepared for the coming of artificial intelligence and the massive job loss that, they say, will 
result.

How Robots Caused Brexit and the Rise of Donald Trump

As automation improves, it inevitably causes massive disruption in the labor markets, leading to
inequality and global political unrest. Sound familiar? Think about the populist movements behind
Brexit in the UK, the rise of the far right in Europe, or even #MakeAmericaGreat-ism right here in
the US. They were all unthinkable just a few years ago but are now popping up all around the post-
industrial world.

Edited by Elus, 02 December 2016 - 05:49 AM.

[mag1]

Thanks Elus, it takes a mighty big person... er Elus, interdimensional space, sounds like a non-human environment ...um are you human? Or robot?

 

This is what I have been worrying about for years now.

And it is now on the horizon.

 

It begins.

Ominous.

 

I am guessing all those manufacturing jobs won't be returning any time soon.

Robobuggies are a whole new leak that needs to be plugged before the entire labor market drains away.

 

While for consumers it will be great. We will all be able to buy everything online and have it delivered for free.

 

The last election was probably more about a sense of resignation that the approaching technologies will have unchangeable consequences for workers.

Might as well have a good laugh now because no one has yet articulated a rational solution to this problem.  

[mpe]

While for consumers it will be great. We will all be able to buy everything online and have it delivered for free

 

 

Hmmm?

Who will be buying?

The great unwashed, unemployed masses?

 

Mike

[mag1]

There is truth in your perspective, Mike.

I feel, though, that I have earned some street cred with my previous posts to branch out a little to mention some of the benefits of robobuggies. It makes it all the more scary when you realize how enormous the demand will be for this service. We are rapidly approaching a time in which people will expect everything to be delivered. Why walk across the street when a robobuggies will simply deliver all items to your house? It will be the ultimate life for those who never want to get off their sofa.

The only wiggle room here could be the deflation that likely would emerge with such a technology. With free delivery one could shop for items at the lowest possible price. As it is now people can pay substantial premiums on everything they buy. It is also possible that consumers could start paying closer to domestic Chinese prices. There would be no barriers from seller and buyer if the distribution system were to disappear.

[mag1]

Might anyone have a suggestion for a traded market security that we might use as an indicator of our robobuggy hypothesis?

It is always good to have a reality check and markets are the most rationalized reality check available.

 

Perhaps a traded real estate trust, chain of convenience or retail stores might give us an idea if the markets are thinking as we

are thinking. One strange part of this is that there might be a counter intuitive angle to this story. It is possible that if the retail

economy does soon disappear due to robobuggies some of the retail stores might be rezoned. This might greatly increase their

value. If this were to happen it is possible that the decline of retail might actually have positive financial implications for the

market caps of some retailers. 

Edited by mag1, 07 December 2016 - 12:55 AM.

[mag1]

I have been focused more on the scary prospect of robobuggies as a near term disruptor, though IBM Watson technology also appears to have disruptor potential.

 

PhD APIs, is that as scary as it sounds?

A PhD level expert system on an app?

 

https://www.ibm.com/...developercloud/

 

 

Anyone have an idea what Watson's IQ might be?

Is there an easy way to go online and ask Watson questions?

 

 

  

 

[saj87]

This is just paranoia. There is still much to be done in a lot of fields for a robot to replace a human whose competencies don't just involve mechanically simple tasks. And if some day there is such a fully-capable robot able to perform like a human, its cost would be really high compared to what companies pay to humans and as Mike said, if consumers have no money, goods and services wont yield the expected returns, so I don't think it would be rational to expect the take over you say.

[mag1]

Thank you for responding saj87.

 

Those on our thread might prefer it to be otherwise, though the signs of truly profound change appear to be clearly emerging.

 

Brexit? US election? 

These were 100% sure things not to shake out as they did.

Who are the paranoid?

There were some heavy duty power tilted against the natural feel in the heartland inclination and both times it was not enough.

 

There now truly seems to be a future shock approaching.

The problem with techno change is that once we are a step behind an exponential wave the game is over.

It does not seem unreasonable to suggest that high water is now brewing.

 

Technologies are converging, amplifying and optimizing.

It is not entirely unlikely that governments and others are already in the process of actively directing what will and will

not be allowed to be developed and on what timescale. 

 

It is quite instructive to read some of the background on Watson to gain insight into how unstable our future might be.

​The narrative as given is that some IBM workers were in a restaurant when the most successful Jeopardy contestant ever

came on the TV. The entire restaurant feel silent in reverence for his demonstration of extreme intellectual accomplishment.

On the basis of not much more than a beer bet, 15 IBM workers then set to make a trivia playing computer. It only took 3 years

to achieve reasonable competitiveness against typical humans. After another year or two of development, the program was capable

of defeating the most highly skilled of humans. This was based on not much more than a lark by a few tech workers.  The Watson 

program has now become a suite of apps offered by IBM. One report noted that 90% of nurses now accept Watson's assessments. 

Another talked to PhD APIs. Humans can spend decades of their lives becoming experts in some field. What happens when a

free online app is capable of superior expertise with instantaneous ability to download updates? 

 

It was especially striking when it was noted that Facebook, Google and Apple are now leaders in market capitalization, though not with proportionate workforces. While in previous times, GM, Ford and Chrysler   

were the most highly valued while having substantially larger workers.

 

We truly live in a world where a very small group of highly motivated technology workers can fundamentally reshape our world.

    

It begins.

 

 

 

 

Edited by mag1, 20 December 2016 - 04:02 AM.

[thedarkbobo]

Well, there can be some good points for this technology..you still have to know(learn) the basics to ask the right questions, but then you will spend less time diging for the information/researching since Watson can find it.

It will speed up research.

[albedo]

In case you have not seen it, the White House published last December a report titled "Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and the Economy" which follows a previous report in October 2016 and further expands on the effect on labor and economy and outlines possible paths of intervention:

https://www.whitehou...ion-Economy.PDF

[jack black]

Kudos for someone posting a link to the Manna book by Marshall Brain (many pages ago): http://www.marshallb....com/manna1.htm

 

while the writing is not very smooth, the story is good, not unlike similar sci-fi novels i've seen on this very topic. I don't agree with the utopia ending though. call me a cynic, but utopias tend not to work well for humans. it's just the nature of the beast. I'm afraid the societies will divide themselves into haves and have nots. it's happening already fairly fast in USA.

[mag1]

The thread has let the robobuggy story drift for a while, though Starship is now in full roll-out mode.

There are a few states that are all lined up to legalize this technology, while Virginia already has.

 

https://www.starship...ss/in-the-news/

 

This is going to be so super-awesome!

I can't wait to load up the buggy with all those things that I haven't been bothered to drag myself to

a bricks and mortar store and buy.

 

These buggies have a range of 3 miles.

As soon as they link them into mass transit, then they would have city-wide reach.

That would be amazing!

 

In a typical urban landscape, nearly everyone is within a half mile of transit service.

Perhaps they could start to include once daily service to those areas that are not served by transit.

 

This could be such a big economic driver.

There are many things that I would love to buy, though it is simply too much of an effort to drag myself

all across town to buy them. So, I am mostly stuck with buying from stores in my immediate neighborhood.

With these buggies, I will be so happy being able to buy specialty breads, other food items, a more diverse range of

take out foods, and highly specific department store/technology products.

 

Yeah!

 

Life is great!

 

I will also be greatly happy when I can start having access to online products without having to pay large shipping costs.

If I can now buy online and ship to a central location in my city at a very reasonable price, then the robobuggy could take

it the last mile where almost all of the transport expense resides.

 

Edited by mag1, 08 April 2017 - 10:10 PM.

[mag1]

I had no idea about some of the other implications of rolling out these robobuggies.

I have been so fixated on what might result in the labor economy that the possible impact on health was entirely overlooked.

 

https://technical.ly...s-food-deserts/

 

Robobuggies could have a transformative effect on these food deserts.

Research speaks of up to 40 million Americans with some level of food insecurity.

Among some of the most impacted there is a doubling of the risk of diabetes.

This must be an enormous expense for Medicaid.

 

Amazing thing with technology, whenever you introduce a new way of doing things

all sorts of other knock on benefits start to pop up. The cost savings to government

from reduced medical expenses could be massive. Also these people in food deserts

would not even have to move out of their communities to derive the benefits of healthy food

and then would be more able to focus on improving their financial circumstances in the labor  

economy.

 

http://www.businessi...clinton-2016-11

http://americannutri...es-food-deserts

 

I also found it interesting that the 2016 electoral map and food deserts lined up almost perfectly especially in the south east.

The first state going north along the east coast that went Democrat was Virginia which was also the first state going north that converted from a food desert to a food oasis. All other states on the east coast north of Virginia were also Democrat and food oases. This seems to apply to other Democratic states in the rest of the country: the Democrats did not win a single food desert state.

Edited by mag1, 11 June 2017 - 04:20 PM.

[mag1]

There is an even bleaker topic of conversation: the impending extinction of humanity.

You're all invited to discuss this topic at:

 

http://www.longecity...rived/?p=820038

[mag1]

Hey, how about robobuggies?

From what I can tell, we might be only 2 or 3 years out from a mass roll out.

My ongoing contention is that such a development should ultimately have profound socioeconomic consequences.  

 

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf

[mag1]

Next year or in a few months; will scale up to LARGE numbers of robobuggies.
5 cents a mile price point.

This is moving fast!

http://www.tharsus.c...es-ahti-heinla/

For a reality versus virtual based technology this is moving ahead far far faster than I could have imagined.
As soon as you get people forming their committees and deliberating about the ethical and epistemological
implications of robobuggies it would be game over. Robobuggies would be just another of many technologies
that would have made the lives of all humans better if only it were allowed to have happened.

Appears robobuggies are too good of an idea with too much momentum to stop.

The only question left is what we have focused on here on the thread: what happens to the retail economy? As soon as there is a true unchecked roll out it is difficult to imagine that this would have a neutral effect on the labor market.

It's actually somewhat amusing to me to see how large the difference is between the free Enterprise and government sectors is regarding their commitment to customer convenience. Recently I had to wait in a line for an hour to update a government issued identity card I could hardly believe that this would even be possible in the 21st Century. Without Monopoly power, government would not be competitive to provide any service.

Edited by mag1, 13 August 2017 - 04:54 PM.

[mag1]

Unless anyone has just returned from some downtime in a cave, it appears that humanity has entered the Singularity event horizon.

 

https://deepmind.com...arning-scratch/

 

Only thing that now needs to be done is find algorithms that match the level of irrationality consistent with human behavior.

Any well defined game is now fair game for rapid mastery by reinforcement learning AI. Yet, the rules of the game as defined

by human conduct are somewhat less well-defined or objective.

[sthira]

Sophia:

[marcobjj]

Next year or in a few months; will scale up to LARGE numbers of robobuggies.
5 cents a mile price point.

This is moving fast!

http://www.tharsus.c...es-ahti-heinla/

For a reality versus virtual based technology this is moving ahead far far faster than I could have imagined.
As soon as you get people forming their committees and deliberating about the ethical and epistemological
implications of robobuggies it would be game over. Robobuggies would be just another of many technologies
that would have made the lives of all humans better if only it were allowed to have happened.

Appears robobuggies are too good of an idea with too much momentum to stop.

The only question left is what we have focused on here on the thread: what happens to the retail economy? As soon as there is a true unchecked roll out it is difficult to imagine that this would have a neutral effect on the labor market.

It's actually somewhat amusing to me to see how large the difference is between the free Enterprise and government sectors is regarding their commitment to customer convenience. Recently I had to wait in a line for an hour to update a government issued identity card I could hardly believe that this would even be possible in the 21st Century. Without Monopoly power, government would not be competitive to provide any service.

 

Are we already in one? I'm trying to deconstruct Elon's argument, but can't.

 

 

[RWhigham]

Luddites  tried to destroy the textile mills that put hand-loom operators out of work. These mills reduced textile prices so the average person could own more than a single pair of often-patched britches.  

 

Neo-Luddites want to bring back the old labor-intensive ways of coal mining, stomp out alternative energy, and deny carbon emissions are a problem.

 

Is our government being controlled by neo-Luddites?

 

Every industry sees innovative ways to increase efficiency - more goods for less labor. Neo-luddites basically want to stop innovation. Its not going to happen. Humans are innovative.  Because we are innovative, new generations will find new jobs that we cannot imagine today.  Soon a computer program will be able to diagnose illness and recommend treatment more accurately than most doctors. Neo-Luddites will want to prohibit the public from using it. Do you?

 

Opinion:

For an economy to flourish, there has to be a great deal of money flowing between people. Over-concentration of wealth is counter-productive to money flow (how many iPhones does one billionaire need). Wealth distribution has always been inherently unstable. A steeply graduated income tax addressed this problem during WWII and the years following, but taxes on the rich have been eviscerated by our government starting about 50 years ago. As a result, the over-concentration of wealth has grown faster and faster and keeps accelerating.

 

Here is an example of how CEOs "earn" their money: Investors approve when the company board is made up of "titans of industry". So most boards consist of CEO's that all serve on each others boards and set each other's salaries. Through the years, they have convinced themselves that they all deserve to have astronomical salaries. This blatant conflict of interest should be criminalized by law.

 

Socialism - like everything else, it's best in moderation - the dose makes the poison

 

Cutting taxes on the rich to create jobs -

 

If only the rich had a little more

The rest of us

wouldn't be so poor

 

Is the trickle down a little slow?

Then double down on trickle down

to really make it flow.

 

Is the economy headed for the ditch?

Take money out of circulation

and give it to the rich.

 

Money distribution never can be stable.

Restore the natural order

Let them run the table.

 

Cut taxes on the rich, It's really only fair

To make an earthly paradise

they need a bigger share

 

 

Edited by RWhigham, 30 October 2017 - 10:22 PM.

[mag1]

RWhigham, thank you for joining the conversation.

 

I do not entirely agree with your comments, though I must admit that it is very refreshing that you are

offering at least some sort of a path to the future. Most on the thread, including me, have all but given

up on a cohesive response of how we can manage to work are way out of the impending technology

quagmire that is one the way. I will probably argue with you (in a friendly way) which will be better than

the near complete absence of rebuttal from anyone else.

 

I simply have no conception of how our community will cope with the wave of technology approaching.

Even though I probably will disagree with your proposed solutions, I encourage you to continue posting

so that we can at least try to constructively address some of the serious challenges that we are facing.

There has been almost no coherent response by the techno-thought leaders on what should be done.

 

It is not so much that there are no answers; I think it is more the answers that probably make the most

sense would not be palatable to most people.

 

For instance, why not see this as a great opportunity to create a learning society?

We could all have a job for life: learners.

A life time of learning, how great would that be?

One could enroll in online university courses and develop a wide range of skills and a substantial knowledge base.

 

While I might think that would be divine, I suspect many others would not be as enchanted with such a future.

I suspect there are a fair number of people out there that would instead prefer to protest the erosion of

the current employment model and would ultimately feel much more reinforced if they were to continue as

an employee even if such employment involved zero marginal productivity.

 

In terms of your idea that there will be jobs created in industries that we can hardly imagine right now.

While this is certainly true, the current experience in many places including many nations in Europe,

indicates that youth unemployment rates have been extremely high over many years. There is developing

an entire cohort of young people who do not appear to have a future. This is before the sweeping

social changes that could result from approaching technologies such as robobuggies.

 

The argument that there must be jobs does not strongly conform to real world counter examples. For

example, there are entire communities of First Nations in North America that live without an employment

base. A bleak possible future is that we will all essentially live on such reserves while a small number of

guards keep everything in order. In such a scenario the only workers necessary would be those in charge

of social services. Yet, even these jobs could under some circumstances also be highly vulnerable.

 

 

Edited by mag1, 30 October 2017 - 11:12 PM.

[jack black]

I simply have no conception of how our community will cope with the wave of technology approaching.

 

i posted this in your another very pessimistic thread on declining demographics.

 

 

if we face both demographic decline and increase in automation (i have no doubt about both), the net effect will more or less neutral. one thing is for sure: healthcare will absorb the jobs relieved by automation. Those will be low paying jobs i'm afraid, while the profits will go to multinational companies of course.

man, you have to start thinking in the terms of glass half full!

[mag1]

Jack, thank you for your optimistic words.

 

You are probably quite correct that this will all work out just fine, though there are still some serious challenges

that we are now confronting and I am very unsure how this will play out.

 

The robobuggies have become a central focus of this thread and they are moving rapidly to a wide scale launch

over the next several months. There should be some indication over a reasonably short term time horizon whether

there will or will not be a retail economy left in existence. I would think that at least for the first wave of the roll-out

they would constrain the technology in such a way that immediate and deep job losses would not occur. If you

had a 2 mile operating range etc. robobuggy technology might have only a minimal influence on retail.

 

However, my ongoing concern is that with a full implementation and full consumer choice, the entire retail sector could collapse.

If I had the choice of having all of my retail and other needs satisfied by a robobuggy, then robobuggies it would be.

 

This is now very near term, so we can just sit back and watch what happens. Hopefully, my concerns are not valid.

 

 

 

   

[Mind]

Undercover report from Amazon: http://www.mirror.co...argets-11587888

 

While the writer makes it sound bad, it is not written with any context. How does Amazon compare to other large warehouse operations? Less pay or more pay? Are timed bathroom breaks common, or exclusive to Amazon? Are ambulance visits to Amazon more frequent or less frequent than other warehouses?

 

I have worked at factories doing repetitive work in the past. This report does not sound all that different than 30 years ago, except....

 

...the hyper focus on metrics. The timed bathroom breaks and the screen in front of you making sure you don't stop, and constantly culling the lowest performers...yes that is business, but it is getting less "human" and eerily similar to "Manna"