10 replies to this topic

[Reformed-Redan]

Should people who will probably see 2050 also investing in ALCOR life insurance funds? Or is Kurzweil too optimistic with his predictions on 2050 and nanoscopic robots repairing us indefinitely?

[Brain_Ischemia]

Or is Kurzweil too optimistic with his predictions on 2050

In a word, yes.

and nanoscopic robots repairing us indefinitely?

As a wise man once told me, "there is no protocol."
If you're looking for "indefinite repair" within this century, the only real thread you can follow is the SENS Foundation...
http://sens.org/
...and there's nothing on the agenda concerning prefabricated nanobots.

I am extremely hopeful that SENS is the first stepping-stone towards the fruition of real innovative biomedical rejuvenation technologies within the next several decades. However, at 30-years-old, I have no expectation whatsoever of living long enough to personally benefit such that my body can be spared the (currently) inevitable decay of aging

I *do* expect, however, that cryopreservation of the human brain will be increasingly perfected; breakthroughs over the course of the last decade give me good reason for that expectation. I expect a wide range of applications as well. I'm personally impressed enough that I think the capacity for a reasonably "good" cryopreservation exists today.

[DAMABO]

Or is Kurzweil too optimistic with his predictions on 2050

In a word, yes.

and nanoscopic robots repairing us indefinitely?

As a wise man once told me, "there is no protocol."
If you're looking for "indefinite repair" within this century, the only real thread you can follow is the SENS Foundation...
http://sens.org/
...and there's nothing on the agenda concerning prefabricated nanobots.

care to elaborate why Kurzweil is too optimistic, and why you have no confidence in nanobots?

Edited by caliban, 17 April 2018 - 07:37 AM.
c

[Brain_Ischemia]

(I realize people here may not like this, but here goes...)

Kurzweil's predictions are founded on some reasonable extrapolations mixed with his own personal imagination (and hence, some not-so-reasonable extrapolations), but there is no reason to think that those predictions (say, about the year 2050) are, in and of themselves, possessed of any special empirical insight. I would bet that many of his most basic (and potentially loosely interpreted) predictions will indeed come to pass, though the timescales are likely over-optimistic; like I said, simple extrapolation. But that's a *guess* on my part; it's not science.

For example, simple Newtonian physics allows us to predict how macrophysical phenomena will unfold with a high degree of accuracy. There is basis for statistical assessment of the behaviors of crowds though even that's limited; ie; it doesn't extend to long-term predictions of the behavior of economic markets (see Malkiel's "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"). I'm not aware of any strong scientific evidence on the *accuracy of predictions* regarding technological innovation or the broad adoption of technology by society, therefore I don't think there's an empirical basis upon which to lend any greater credence to Kurzweil's long-term predictions than (almost) anyone else.

That said, enough time has passed that Kurzweil has a track-record that's available for scrutiny.
Accuracy is in degrees and it varies wildly, and as I said, even by the most generous interpretation, his timescales are overly optimistic.

"Early 2000s" Translating telephones allow people to speak to each other in different languages.

"Early 2000s" Cybernetic chauffeurs can drive cars for humans and can be retrofitted into existing cars. They work by communicating with other vehicles and with sensors embedded along the roads.

"By 2009" The majority of text is created using continuous speech recognition.

"By 2009" Most business transactions (purchase, travel, reservations) take place between a human and a virtual personality. Often, the virtual presentation includes an animated visual presence that looks like a human face.

"By 2009" Human musicians routinely jam with cybernetic musicians. (was he really thinking of ghost Tupac and Hatsune Miku???)

"By 2009" Bioengineered treatments for cancer and heart disease have greatly reduced mortality from these diseases.

"By 2009" The neo-luddite movement is growing. (anyone burning cellphones?)

"By 2009" Accelerating returns from the advance of computer technology have resulted in continued economic expansion. Price deflation, which had been a reality in the computer field during the 20th century, is now occurring outside the computer field. The reason for this is that virtually all economic sectors are deeply affected by the accelerating improvements in the price performance of computing. (a burst tech-bubble and a global economic collapse later; the growth of consumer computing power is nearly flat due to the shift towards mobile computing, tablets, etc. away from desktops, as well as the steady decline of PC gaming which was a surprisingly strong driving force behind Moore's Law [as it relates to consumer computing power] for much of the past two decades)

"By 2009" Intelligent roads are in use, mainly for long-distance travel. Once your car's guidance system locks into the control sensors on one of these highways, you can sit back and relax. Local roads, though, are still predominantly conventional.

"By 2009" Beyond musical recordings, images, and movie videos, the most popular type of digital entertainment object is virtual experience software. These interactive virtual environments allow you to go whitewater rafting on virtual rivers, to hang-glide in a virtual Grand Canyon, or to engage in intimate encounters with your favorite movie star. Users also experience fantasy environments with no counterpart in the physical world. The visual and auditory experience of virtual reality is compelling, but tactile interaction is still limited. (Ray wrote this around the time the movie "The Lawnmower Man" came out)
,
Ray Kurzweil's predictions for 2009 were "unarguably accurate," he says
http://www.theverge....guably-accurate

...With all due respect, Mr. Kurzweil, I disagree.

EDIT:

You also asked about nanobots.
No, I have no confidence in prefabricated molecular machines based on classical mechanics that are complex enough to be capable of the level of cellular repair needed to heal today's cryopatients.
But I can accept the fact that I just don't know (my knowledge is rather feeble regarding this possibility).

My guess is that anything from viruses to "wet nanotechnology" (ie biochemistry) are a better bet.

Edited by caliban, 17 April 2018 - 07:37 AM.
c

[Brain_Ischemia]

We might as well just continue to keep score...

Kurzweil lecture in 2005:
"By 2010, computers will disappear. They'll be so small, they'll be embedded in our clothing, in our environment. Images will be written directly onto our retina [no, this is not how Google's "augmented reality" works] providing full-immersion virtual reality, augmented reality. We will be interacting with virtual personalities."

Come on, Ray....five years???
---

By 2020 (don't think I need to remind anyone that this is less than 8 years away).

"Worldwide economic growth has continued. There has not been a global economic collapse."

"There will be a new world government."
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"Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate."
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"Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use."
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"Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. These assistants are often not physically present and help students remotely."
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"Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge."
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"People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb steps using computer-controlled nerve-stimulation and exoskeletal robot walkers."
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"Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable."
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"Computers do most of the vehicle driving - humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents."
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"People will be able to reprogram their own biochemistry away from disease and aging." (folks, I don't think he's referring to diet and lifestyle alterations here; "Ray and Terry's" supplements maybe??)
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"2025...the most likely year for the debut of advanced nanotechnology."

Looks like Kurzweil was more optimistic than you thought...but I'm guessing the goal posts are going to be moved.

[DAMABO]

I think it would be best to discuss only the past and the present for seeing if his predictions do make some sense:
'translating telephones' seem to exist. google it.
'cybernetic chauffeurs' exist in the sense that self-driving cars have proven to be more safe for use than conventional human operated cars.
'the majority of text is...' is obviously wrong, although this technology does exist.
'intelligent roads' I think also exist, but are not widely in use (but this is in accordance with ray's prediction)

I think there is some point in your argument. although kurzweil is a great predictor of what eventually will be, the timelines may be a bit optimistic. if anything, it seems that those technologies would only exist for the uber-rich at those timelines he predicts (but then again, ray is uber-rich) - the rest of the world will have to wait a decade.

I think an important factor which may be neglected by ray is the marketing aspect. electric cars existed a century ago, and still they are not 'widely in use'.

Edited by DAMABO, 11 September 2012 - 01:31 PM.

[DAMABO]

"You also asked about nanobots.
No, I have no confidence in prefabricated molecular machines based on classical mechanics that are complex enough to be capable of the level of cellular repair needed to heal today's cryopatients.
But I can accept the fact that I just don't know (my knowledge is rather feeble regarding this possibility).

My guess is that anything from viruses to "wet nanotechnology" (ie biochemistry) are a better bet."

I'm not that educated on the matter either. my guess is that ray is right (maybe a delay of 2-3 years maximum) about when the technologies arise, but not on when they become available to a wide audience. In any event, I think science can solve the ageing problem this century, by whatever technology will prove to be the most important/practical.

Mind also suggested that economic crisis has led only the wealthy futurists to invest in the novel technologies, retarding widespread adoption of technologies. Hence, technology itself is retarded (literal sense of the word).

Edited by DAMABO, 11 September 2012 - 01:47 PM.

[AgeVivo]

We've seen that even "modest" predictions tend to be overly optimistic. Then,

Should people who will probably see 2050 also investing in ALCOR life insurance funds?

Difficult to say: how satisfying are the predictions that such people will be sufficiently well frozen (once your dead and teared apart and triple-killed again...) and for sufficiently long times without cold-interruption (massive techniques need to be developped...) to be reanimated when adequate technology exist?

Difficult to say that the probability is 0 of course. But for exemple developping methods to copy wood frogs (freeze us and de-freeze us without waiting for body decomposition) seems much more promising to me.

Edited by AgeVivo, 11 September 2012 - 07:22 PM.

[Brain_Ischemia]

'translating telephones' seem to exist. google it.

Of course they do. They were not, however, in use in the "early 2000s." Note the bold italics above the predictions; the degree of accuracy varies wildly (even that prediction is questionable; the use of translation apps is not widespread among cellphone users, and it is extremely primitive at best.)

'cybernetic chauffeurs' exist in the sense that self-driving cars have proven to be more safe for use than conventional human operated cars.

Can you cite a source for this assertion?

'intelligent roads' I think also exist, but are not widely in use (but this is in accordance with ray's prediction)

No. Ray said "Local roads, though, are still predominantly conventional."
The full context is that long-distance highways are in fact predominantly "intelligent" by 2009 and that by the end of the following decade (2020), "unassisted" driving on such highways would be illegal.

although kurzweil is a great predictor of what eventually will be,

I'm unaware of any evidence for that assertion.

electric cars existed a century ago, and still they are not 'widely in use'.

Irrelevant. Anybody can extrapolate from existing technologies if timescales don't matter. It would be one thing if Ray were doing that (and he might as well since the goal posts are constantly moved), but like I said, he's also adding his own personal imagination *and* explicitly dating his predictions.

To be clear, I don't speak for anybody but myself as an individual. I appreciate Ray's support of cryonics (limited to vocal support, AFAIK). I do not think that anyone interested in cryonics should have any consideration for Kurzweil's predictions when it comes to making that choice. IMHO

Edited by Taurus Londoño, 11 September 2012 - 09:12 PM.

[Brain_Ischemia]

how satisfying are the predictions that such people will be sufficiently well frozen (once your dead and teared apart and triple-killed again...)

Alcor's cryopreservation protocol is predicated upon rapid cardiopulmonary support within minutes of legal death in order to limit ischemic damage and to prevent concordant resistance to bloodflow; Ideally, this would facilitate a high degree of cryoprotectant perfusion of the brain (limiting/preventing ice formation) while preserving cellular viability.

There are some tears in the vasculature due to the resulting dehydration, and the cryoprotectant solution itself is cytotoxic. However, there is little to no structural perturbation.

As the brain is cooled to the temperature of liquid nitrogen, there is some degree of fracturing, though it is important to understand that there is no loss of information (as there would be in the case of a wound or abrasion, for example). There is currently a superior storage system which should prevent this fracturing, though it is not yet in use (to my knowledge).

Do be aware that all of these "damaging" processes are literally frozen in time as the brain is cooled down to LN2 temp. Biochemistry ceases completely; even molecular motion essentially ceases for all intents and purposes. For example, as damaging as cryoprotectant might be (and it is modestly cytotoxic), that damage is contained and does not fully unfold; it is halted.

without cold-interruption (massive techniques need to be developped...)

Not sure what you're talking about here. Once in dewar storage, all that's currently needed is to top off the liquid nitrogen once every couple of weeks. The dewars are really little more than giant thermos bottles filled with liquid nitrogen; there is no reliance on electrical power. Hypothetically, as long as the dewars are topped off, this could be continued for 10,000 years (when cosmic rays might cause enough molecular damage to be worried about).

Of course, that has nothing whatsoever to do with the question of whether or not the facilities and people working there will not suffer some interruption of their own. I believe it is extremely important to ensure that cryopatients are safeguarded and will never be abandoned. That doesn't *necessarily* require any technological innovation.

But for exemple developping methods to copy wood frogs (freeze us and de-freeze us without waiting for body decomposition) seems much more promising to me.

Not applicable to cryonics.

Edited by Taurus Londoño, 11 September 2012 - 09:08 PM.

[caliban]

MODERATION NOTE: Since we turned the corner in the last post, I'm not going to rip the thread apart, but any further discussions about Kurzweil's predictions not imminently connected with cryonics should he held > in this thread <_ instead.